DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Is the AI stock boom a dot-com-style bubble? David Rosenberg, Jeremy Siegel, and 5 other experts weigh in.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Experts including David Rosenberg and analysts from Wall Street banks including Bank of America have compared the AI stock boom to the dot-com bubble that burst in 2000. Here's a selection of the most recent expert views on this year's AI stock boom. But not everyone thinks the AI stock boom has run too far. Michael Hartnett, Bank of AmericaMichael Hartnett, BofA Global Research's CIO, said AI is in a "baby bubble" for now and noted that "AI = internet." Jeremy Siegel, Wharton finance professorThe retired Wharton finance professor doesn't see the AI hype as a bubble, either.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, Dan Ives, —, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Dan Raju, Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Michael Hartnett, BofA, James Penny, TAM Asset Management James Penny, I'd, Art Cashin, Cashin, Rosenberg, doesn't Organizations: Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, Service, Wall, UBS, TAM Asset Management, Nvidia, Microsoft, BofA Global, firm's, Bloomberg, Art, CNBC Locations: Wall

☆ BofA's Hartnett admits 'bears like us have been wrong,' sees these conditions ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett has joined his colleagues in admitting he was too pessimistic in his outlook for stocks this year. In his weekly note to clients examining the flow of money through the market, Hartnett took a jab at himself, labeling his outlook the product of "A Bear of Very Little Brain." Further, he outlined several reasons why "bears like us have been wrong" in the first half of 2023. On the economy, "nominal GDP remained super-charged by fiscal stimulus/war, labor" while the labor market was "impervious to monetary policy in post-pandemic world," Hartnett wrote. These include deflation, emerging market stocks and "hard-landing plays" such as REITs and commercial real estate, banks, small-cap stocks, oil and China.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Savita Subramanian Organizations: of America, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed & US, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Labor Locations: Silicon, China

☆ Bank of America highlights seven stocks that have driven most of this year's market gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Most of the stock market gains this year have been powered by a handful of tech-focused names that have posted outsized increases, according to Bank of America. Call them the S & P 7 — or, as the firm's chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, labels them, the "Magnificent Seven." Together, the stock bloc has contributed 8.8 percentage points of the S & P 500 's total 10% increase, as of Thursday's close, for all of 2023. In May alone, the seven stocks posted a gain of 16%, thanks to Nvidia's earnings-fueled acceleration. "Monetary policy remains the 'big dog' & set to tighten in coming months… biggest reason we are not capitulating into risk despite price action," Hartnett wrote.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Jim Cramer, bitcoin, Hartnett, it's Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Big Tech, Federal Reserve Locations: China

☆ The AI craze drove investors to pour a record $8.5 billion into tech funds last week, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors poured a record $8.5 billion of cash into tech funds last week, Bank of America found. The AI "baby bubble" has become the dominant theme for markets, strategist Michael Hartnett said. Tech funds brought in a record $8.5 billion in the week ending May 31, the bank found. Contrarian-minded investors should sell AI stocks and buy shares in Hong Kong-listed companies, which could benefit from China's efforts to revive its faltering economy, Hartnett said. Read more: Tech stocks are outperforming their rivals by the most since the dot-com bubble

Persons: Michael Hartnett, —, Bill Ackman, Stanley, Hartnett, Read Organizations: Bank of America, Nasdaq, Service, Tech, Nvidia, Meta, Federal Reserve Locations: ChatGPT, There's, Hong Kong

☆ Why ChatGPT could spark a new bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Phil Rosen here, still poking around OpenAI's new ChatGPT iPhone app. The rise of ChatGPT and subsequent AI boom could solidify the recent strength in stocks as a new bull market, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. In a recent note, the strategist said equities' strong start to the year isn't just a bear market rally, but that it indeed marks a new bull regime. If the Fed mistakenly pauses and then resumes hiking as inflation persists, the music could stop for high flying AI stocks. Mega-cap tech stocks are "overbought" and their rally could stall out soon.

☆ BofA says AI is in a 'baby bubble' that echoes the dot-com era, and one move could easily blow up the investment frenzy ignited by ChatGPT
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

What could burst the bubble is the Fed pausing rate hikes and then restarting the cycle. AI is in a "baby bubble" for now, Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Global Research, wrote on Friday. The Fed may be on the way to pausing its run of rate hikes at its June 14 gathering. The dot-com bubble popped nine months later. "AI = internet," wrote Hartnett.

☆ Markets next week may keep thinking about what could go right
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.

☆ Tech is the 'most crowded trade' as stock-market bearishness rises to the highest levels so far this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are loading up on mega-cap tech stocks as they turn more bearish, according to Bank of America. The bank said tech is the "most crowded trade" followed by shorting banks and shorting the US dollar. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. According to Bank of America's global fund manager survey, tech stocks are the "most crowded trade" on Wall Street as bearishness towards the broader stock market hits its highest level so far this year. Mega-cap tech stocks have a war chest of cash and a wide moat around their businesses that in the past have enabled steady growth during periods of economic weakness.

☆ Russia’s battered wartime economy is still chugging along as it taps its wealth fund, raises taxes, and ramps up imports
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Shares of First Republic dropped more than 40% in pre-market trading today, while JPMorgan stock ticked 2.9% higher. Let's check in on Russia's wartime economy. To the surprise of many forecasters, Russia's economy has held up better than expected as it carries on into the second year of its war on Ukraine. And leaked documents, first reported by the Washington Post, suggest that Russia can fund its war for at least another year. Specifically, US intelligence says Moscow can rely on its sovereign wealth fund to help pay for its war efforts, as well as higher corporate taxes and ramped-up imports.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says a 60% decline in the S&P 500 is likely as high valuations and weak investor sentiment create a 'trap door' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The chart below shows how far the S&P 500 would have to fall to provide either a 10% return or 2% premium over Treasury bonds. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2023 at around 3,150, he told YouTube channel Wealthion. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 0.8% over the past year.

☆ Investors should sell the S&P 500 above this key level as earnings defy expectations but 'economic ambiguity' persists, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sell the S&P 500 when it rises above 4,200, Bank of America's chief stock strategist said Friday. "We stay bearish" as the US economy looks set to end 2023 with stress in the labor market and weak earnings. The S&P 500 was edging toward logging a 20% gain from its bear-market low. He reiterated his call to sell the S&P 500 above 4,200 — less than 0.1% from the current level — in part as stocks are pricing in a decline of "just" 4% in per-share corporate earnings. It said 76% of S&P 500 companies that posted results had outstripped Wall Street's targets.

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns there's 'plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside' as 80% of recessions since 1933 have torpedoed stocks by 20% after they started
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hartnett says S&P 500 EPS will fall by 16% in 2023, compared to the market's view of -4%. Some argue that stocks have already priced in a recession, having fallen 20% in 2022 (though the S&P 500 has rallied 8% year-to-date). He continued: "Plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside…since 1929, 2/3 of the S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns have occurred during, not before, US recessions." So whether we have an economic recession or not it isn't as important as the earnings recession," he said. Most strategists see a more mild decline in store for stocks, and most — including Wilson — see the S&P 500 finishing the year somewhere near 4,000.

☆ Here are 6 bullish surprises that could power the stock market through the rest of this year, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There are six potential bull market surprises that could drive stocks higher, according to Bank of America. The bank highlighted the deflationary impact of ChatGPT and a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war. "Bearish sentiment + $5 trillion of cash [is] still the 'best friends forever' for risk assets, especially stocks," Hartnett said. These are the six bullish surprises that could fuel more upside in the stock market this year, according to BofA. If any of the surprises play out, it could help the economy avoid a recession or see a soft landing rather than a hard landing, according to Hartnett, ultimately boosting the stock market higher.

The ECB's systemic risk indicator for the United States, for example, has returned to its lowest level in a year. The near $400 billion that dashed for money funds after the Lehman Brothers bust in late 2008 - despite credit fears in some of those funds - had completely retreated by early 2010. The relative interest rate attraction of bills and repos after the steepest Fed rate rises in 40 years should make this year's flows far stickier - unless or until the Fed were to embark on some dramatic rate easing. Either way, there's now no shortage of savings in cash if or when the lights go green. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Added chart from Andy Bruce; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of America gives its best investing plays for the start of a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors need to prepare as signs build that a recession is coming, according to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett. The "drumbeat of recession [is] getting ever louder," the investment strategist said in his weekly "Flow Show" note that looks at where money is moving. Hartnett's "best plays for start of recession" include Treasury bills, which he said outperform until the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. In this case, Hartnett likes that play in anticipation that the Federal Reserve likely will have to begin easing as unemployment rises later in the year. And, of course, nothing lasts forever, so Hartnett advises investors to prepare a "shopping list" of things to buy when conditions change.

☆ Bank of America shares 12 charts that show that the economy is about to enter a full-blown recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are growing signs the US economy is about to enter a full-blown recession, said Bank of America. The bank cited worrying signs in manufacturing and the jobs market, and said investors aren't paying attention to the risks. But so far, no recession has materialized as the jobs market and consumer spending have remained fairly resilient. Model is driven by Asian exports, global PMIs, China financial conditions, US yield curve," BofA said. Steepening yield curve often precedes a recessionBank of America"US Treasury 2-year/10-year yield curve flattens and inverts in anticipation of recession.

☆ Bank of America lists its top stock picks for the second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With the start of the second quarter, Bank of America has a new list of short-term ideas for investors seeking clarity amid ongoing market volatility. The bank expects its Medicare Advantage plans to comprise two-thirds of the company's revenue growth for this year. The bank assigned a $650 price target on UnitedHealth, suggesting the stock could gain more than 31% from Tuesday's close. The bank expects even more gains for the stock, with its 12-month price target of $115 per share implying 11% upside from Tuesday's close of $103.58. Analysts at the bank aren't as bullish on CarMax Bank of America expects CarMax shares to shed 37% to its $40 per share price target.

☆ The stock market rally is over as commercial real estate risks begin to compound, JPMorgan's chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.

☆ A credit crunch could worsen the bank turmoil and commercial real estate could be next domino to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Odds are, commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for the banking sector after this month's unrest. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Regional banks have enormous exposure to commercial real estate loans. But this time around, it is commercial rather than residential real estate that may be in trouble. Are you worried about the impact of commercial real estate on the banking sector and the economy?

☆ Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial real estate is probably the next pain point for regional banks and the stock market, according to BofA. The bank noted that US regional banks account for 68% of all commercial real estate loans. The weakness in commercial real estate is evidenced in current market prices for stocks and debt tied to the sector. This is a perfect storm for regional banks because they have so much exposure to commercial real estate loans. According to Bank of America, US regional banks account for 68% of commercial real estate loans, much more than their mega-cap banking peers.

☆ BofA's Hartnett sees commercial real estate as the 'next shoe to drop'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Commercial real estate could be the next danger spot in the wobbly U.S. financial sector, according to Bank of America. One warning sign: Spreads for commercial mortgage-backed securities are at their widest compared with Treasurys since May 2020, said investment strategist Michael Hartnett. "CRE widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Hartnett wrote in his weekly "Flow Show" report of where market money is gravitating. The last Federal Reserve Senior Loan Office Opinion Survey , in January, noted "significant net shares of banks" that reported tightening lending standards for commercial loans. The Bank Term Funding Program reported $53.7 billion in loans over the past month , while the discount window saw $110.2 billion.

☆ Bank of America says the stock market's lows will be tested
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A notable Bank of America strategist said investors should fade any rebound in stocks off the government's efforts to backstop the banking system this week, as the S & P 500 's lows from last October will likely be revisited. "Stock lows to be tested one last time (in the) coming months," wrote Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America. After tumbling into a bear market, the S & P 500 is up 12% from its low last October. The emerging bank crisis this month stemming from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has put investors on edge before a key Federal Reserve decision on interest rates next week. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months "Banking crises are followed by tighter lending standards and lower risk appetite," wrote Hartnett.

☆ 2 top Wall Street strategists are warning that stocks are susceptible to more declines in March as investors anticipate weaker earnings and the Fed hurls the economy into recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Wilson sees a deterioration in earnings expectations developing in March. Two of Wall Street's most widely-followed strategist are warning that the month of March could see the unraveling of the stock market. For Wilson's part, he sees forward earnings expectations continuing to deteriorate despite recent optimism, and thinks that investors will start getting ahead of this turn sometime this month. Stocks tend to figure it out a month early and trade lower and this cycle has illustrated that pattern perfectly. Morgan StanleyWilson has also pointed out in recent notes that stocks remain historically overvalued relative to where bond yields are.

☆ The next bull market in stocks won't kick off until the Fed is forced to bail out the US government, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The next bull market in stocks won't happen until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bail out the US government, according to Bank of America. BofA said that high rates will result in a staggering increase in interest payments on America's $31 trillion debt. The bank said US government debt is expected to soar by more than $21 trillion over the next 10 years. That's $5.2 billion every single day, or $218 million every single hour, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note. "And that's when the next great bull market in risk begins," Hartnett said.

☆ There's a new most crowded trade on Wall Street — and it's not in the U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The most crowded trade on Wall Street is "long China equities," according to the latest Bank of America Fund manager survey. Twenty-one percent of respondents to the February survey said that was the investment with the most enthusiasm... perhaps too much. Still, the "most crowded" trades in the survey, which is among the most followed on Wall Street, can stay that way for long stretches. Long China displaces "long U.S. dollar," which was the most crowded trade for the prior seven months in the survey. China equities traded in the U.S. were under pressure for a number of reasons, including the country's Covid lockdowns, as well as tighter scrutiny of its homegrown internet businesses.

Search resuls for: "Hartnett"

25 mentions found