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So far in 2023, this index of what are the leading lights of the U.S. economy is up 36% - six times the year-to-date gains of the S&P 500 index (.SPX). Put another way, this year's rise of these 10 mega tech stocks accounts for pretty much all of the S&P 500 gains. "But given how often the S&P 500 has been used as Exhibit A for overall 'resilience', it's important to acknowledge just how idiosyncratic this macro gauge has been." Are tech stocks overpriced? There are certainly plenty of concerns that these mega stocks may be overbought and just too expensive - even though that concern will hardly be a new worry for these stocks.

And, as it's global liquidity that matters, the bowl is also kept brimming as the Bank of Japan continues to buy government bonds at pace. But a study looking at the U.S. banking shock that led to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month and deposit runs across many regional banks suggests a different angle - a 'deposit glut' from within the richest countries that is increasingly unstable. "In a context of rising wealth inequality and growing corporate savings, an increasing share of bank deposits is uninsured and held by sophisticated agents," Vuillemey wrote. "This implies that these deposits are increasingly fragile, and that deposit insurance schemes ... are slowly losing bite." As illustrated in Technicolor in the SVB run, big uninsured deposits are volatile - sensitive as they are to any hint on the bank's health and moveable at push of a button.

If it is just a lagged statistical quirk, then the huge disparity in March inflation rates - of some 3-5 percentage points with western peers - should narrow sharply by yearend. With an election due next year, that may prove a big factor in any re-convergence of inflation rates if the cost of that is a much deeper economic downturn that rest. The question about Britain as an inflation outlier re-opens the age-old issue about just how that should be priced into sterling. For much of the past 10 years, G7 inflation rates were largely locked together in either their subdued pre-pandemic state or during the wild price spikes since. If UK inflation turns "idiosyncratic" among its peers during the much-vaunted normalization, then currency markets may need to rethink fundamental long-term assumptions about purchasing power, Gallo reckons.

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - If a mega Western recession is coming down the pike in the second half of this year, someone should point it out to the junk bond market. The investment herd seems more convinced than ever that recession is on the way amid tightening bank credit after the March bank stress - even if not all the incoming evidence supports that take. More than a third now see the biggest risk ahead as a bank credit crunch and global recession. And that's with junk spreads more than three times higher than quality corporates. U.S. and European junk bond spreads historicallyBank of America survey on investment grade bonds vs junkCOURAGE AND DECOMPRESSIONThere's little doubt than many investors want to steer well clear, for now at least.

MSCI's Europe index, for example, still trades more than a point below its average historic valuation - with the index priced at less than 13 times its 12-month forward earnings. The top sectoral weighting in the STOXX Europe 50, for example, is healthcare - at almost 23%. With British-based stocks the biggest country weighting in the STOXX Europe index at 26%, the other top four sectors in the index include the food, beverages and tobacco grouping, consumer products, industrial goods and energy. The dollar peaked late last year against most European currencies as the Federal Reserve raced to ratchet up interest rates. Some think the slide in the dollar index of some 12% since last September is barely half of the whole move.

The ECB's systemic risk indicator for the United States, for example, has returned to its lowest level in a year. The near $400 billion that dashed for money funds after the Lehman Brothers bust in late 2008 - despite credit fears in some of those funds - had completely retreated by early 2010. The relative interest rate attraction of bills and repos after the steepest Fed rate rises in 40 years should make this year's flows far stickier - unless or until the Fed were to embark on some dramatic rate easing. Either way, there's now no shortage of savings in cash if or when the lights go green. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Added chart from Andy Bruce; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - As "fragmentation" of politics and economics becomes the new buzzword for a world that appears to be splintering into blocs, the related costs of the new order are only now being totted up. Corporate rethinking of foreign direct investment (FDI) - bricks-and-mortar developments overseas as well as mergers and acquisitions - would make the hit even scarier. And if FDI fragmentation is defined by a permanent rise in cross-bloc barriers to imported investment inputs, the IMF said developments could cut world output by 2% in the long term. "Fragmentation of the global economy will likely put inflation at a higher structural level, and the cost of capital will likely go up, squeezing low-quality and leveraged companies." Reuters GraphicsBIS chart on global trade as share of GDPBCG projections on world trade to 2031The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - Even after a bank shock that could well have changed the whole picture, investors appear reluctant to give up the ghost just yet. The tech-heavy, interest-rate sensitive Nasdaq (.IXIC) is up 14% and even broad European bank stock indices (.SX7P) are still up more than 4% for the year. Pull the lens out as far as it can go and MSCI's all-country index of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) is up more than 5%. That U-turn in thinking during the month saw wild swings in the bond and rates markets, where key volatility gauges (.MOVE) hit their highest since the 2008 crash. by Mike Dolan; Editing by Toby Chopra; Twitter: @reutersMikeDOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with BofA's Ethan Harris and BNP Paribas' Yelena Shulyatyeva
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BofA's Ethan Harris and BNP Paribas' Yelena ShulyatyevaEthan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Global Research and Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the market response to the SVB hearing, the regulatory response to the bank crisis, and credit turmoil replacing interest rate hikes.

☆ Inflation looks hard to pull down amid fast wage growth, says BNP's Yelena Shulyatyeva
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation looks hard to pull down amid fast wage growth, says BNP's Yelena ShulyatyevaEthan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Global Research and Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the market response to the SVB hearing, the regulatory response to the bank crisis, and credit turmoil replacing interest rate hikes.

☆ Israeli turmoil alarms business leaders: There's 'fear over what happens next'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Jason Gewirtz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The uncertainty in Israel's political situation extends deep into the business sector. This month, ratings service Fitch warned that the courts controversy "could weaken Israel's credit profile." Weingarten's big fear is an irreparable divide in Israel, a country where a great degree of unity was once seen as a given. Such a drop would make the prime minister push his right-wing coalition partners into a deal that's more aligned with the country's citizens at large. Women dressed as handmaidens from "The Handmaid's Tale" attend a demonstration after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed the defense minister and his nationalist coalition government presses on with its judicial overhaul, in Jerusalem on March 27, 2023.

While money funds are not strictly gauranteed or insured, the 85% invested heavily in government securities put up some stark competition for bank deposits that have lagged central bank policy rate rises over the past 18 months - causing much political ire in countries such as Britain. But, in contrast to money funds, the average rate across all of them, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, is still just 0.37%. That's now changing due to safety and insurance fears at smaller banks stateside - as well as the compelling alternative at money funds that appear safer against that backdrop. Of this trillion, half went to government money market funds and the other half to larger banks, they reckoned. Noting that some $7 trillion of U.S. bank deposits remained uninsured, the JPM team concluded: "A FDIC guarantee of all U.S. bank deposits would certainly help, but it might not be enough to completely stop this deposit shift."

☆ How salt built the global economy and how the U.S. uses it today
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Andrea Miller | Lindsey Jacobson | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow salt built the global economy and how the U.S. uses it todayWars were fought over it, roads paved for its trade, taxed levied against it and even cities named for its legacy. Salt, in fact, made global economics possible. The global market for salt was worth over an estimated $13 billion in 2021. But the increased salinization has contaminated drinking water and soils, causing billions in damages. Watch the video above to learn more about the history of salt and the possible solutions for a saltier world.

Similarly, the U.S. economy and stock markets tend to outperform during booms and draw in overseas investment that lifts demand for dollars. Surely times of great banking and credit stress should boost the greenback? And now we face a bout of severe banking stress alongside stubbornly high inflation that had almost all major central banks raising interest rates again over the past week despite the pretty clear underlying credit stress. JPMorgan's take on the stressed side of the dollar smile last week pointed out that "the underlying macro-financial pathology that necessitates lower yields is the primary determinant of dollar direction". Clearly, the dollar smile is no laughing matter.

Economists who obsess about tightly calibrating the quantity of money in the system balk at QE as a tool. Two weeks of turmoil in mid-sized U.S. banks follow just nine months in which the Fed had been winding down its outsize balance sheet that peaked near $9 trillion during the pandemic. "Illiquidity episodes may force central banks to slow the process of reserve withdrawal. Reuters GraphicsILLIQUIDTY EPISODESThis could become a trap that prevents normalisation of the balance sheet longer term, they said. Better-measured and more forward-looking liquidity regulations, incentives for longer-duration deposits during QE bouts and rethinking stress tests were all options, they wrote.

Even though reading anything with certainty from such volatile prices is difficult right now, the runes of the bond market suggest unfolding banking stress will suppress inflation anyway - regardless of further central bank action. "That would be very much in line with what the central banks want." U.S. equivalents were steadier about 2.5%, but five-year "breakeven" inflation rates from the index-linked market fell to 2.3%. To be fair to central bank policymakers, their own early warning systems - such as the ECB's Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress - don't yet show any more pressure on the system than they did during last year's tightening. Armed with Thursday's trial run from the ECB, the Fed and BoE will now have to make that judgment next week.

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Central banks juggling inflation and financial stability mandates are prompting the wildest swings in bedrock government bonds for over a decade and a surge in volatility that may end up causing problems of its own. "The Fed and other central bankers have lost the luxury of focusing singularly on the fight against inflation," said Manulife Investment Management's Frances Donald. If the history of banking crashes and related credit crunches show them to be deflationary anyway, then many argue a central bank pause now may be the wisest choice. "The Fed is now fighting inflation as well as potential financial contagion," Lombard Odier Chief Investment Officer Stéphane Monier said. The first sign of regional bank stock calm on Tuesday, alongside the sticky core inflation readings for February, prompted a build-back of some bets for one last hike from each central bank.

Based on traditional and long-abandoned fixed policy models, Cleveland Fed researchers reckon policy is already more aggressive than any of those rules suggest. The political and policy appetite for zero interest rates or quantitative easing - which seemed to chase estimates of R-star ever lower over the past decade - is gone. At the same time, real yields above 4% have proven unsustainable historically. Bhatia feels real yields somewhere in the middle is where markets will settle. Given the economy-wide accumulation of debt over recent years, real 10-year yields in a 1.5%-2.0% range probably works.

The biggest question in world finance right now is whether the eye-watering rebound in borrowing rates we've seen over the past month is just another overshoot - or the new reality. G7 2-year yields soarFed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseWorld economy surprising in 2023LOSING THE PLOTSince the middle of last year, futures markets have consistently priced peak Fed rates below where Fed officials themselves were guiding. But for at least six of the past nine months, futures markets priced a lower terminal rate than the central Fed view. Five-year equivalents have risen sharply too, while long-term euro zone inflation swaps are pricing the highest rates in more than a decade. The outcome is "strongly bimodal", they said, and either a recession hits and rates are cut, or it doesn't and rates go to 6.5%.

And it's little surprise the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would be the only economy of the G7 to contract this year. But certainly the potential for improved trade relations with the UK's biggest trading partner is clear. Unicredit this month cited estimates that the UK economy would underperform by 5-7% over 10 years if it remains outside the EU single market and customs union. It may even have been a key spur to this week's breakthrough given the frayed geopolitical backdrop. President Joe Biden has long insisted there would be no progress on a U.S. deal with Britain until the Northern Irish conundrum was resolved.

At its latest meeting, the Fed laced its statement and minutes with a rider about cumulative tightening and uncertain lags. The gist of the argument is that the Fed doesn't deliver credit directly to the wider economy - banks and financial markets do. But few seem to doubt that these policy lags have shortened considerably over the decades. Showcasing the study in December, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly adopted a more dovish slant on the gap between the funds rate and tightening financial markets. "But investors should remain attentive to the occasional episodic disconnects observed between Fed guidance and some prominent indices of financial conditions," Clarida told clients.

A year from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fracturing geopolitics seems to be rolling back world trade links and financial interdependence at speed. But global financial conditions - and the strength of the U.S. dollar as a proxy for that - may be playing a bigger part than the more dramatic political narrative lets on. "A stronger dollar tends to go hand in hand with tighter global financial conditions and more subdued supply chain activity." Compensating somewhat for dollar exchange rate strength over the decade were historically low real dollar borrowing rates. There's little doubt that the pandemic and the geopolitics surrounding Ukraine and Taiwan have been major potential disruptions to world trade by themselves.

☆ Factbox: The U.S. debt ceiling and markets: Gauging the fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Feb 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden is at odds with Republicans in Congress over raising the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, a showdown that looms as a risk factor for markets. Many past debt-limit standoffs have been resolved without significant market fallout but that hasn't always been the case: a 2011 debt ceiling showdown roiled markets and led to a downgrade Standard & Poor's. Here is some background about the debt ceiling debate and its impact on markets:** Though months remain for lawmakers to reach an agreement, there are signs stock investors may already be pricing in risk around the debt ceiling debate. According to Goldman Sachs, while debt limit debates typically have had "limited" impact on the broad market, stocks exposed to government spending have commonly lagged in the weeks prior to the debt ceiling deadline. That led Deutsche Bank's head of global economics and thematic research Jim Reid to note that markets might be caught off guard by major fallout from a debt showdown.

The decision, announced after financial markets closed, gives Biden a pair of trusted Washington insiders to steer economic policy as the risk of recession fades but inflation lingers. Big fights also loom with the Republican-controlled House of Representatives over raising the debt ceiling. The shakeup comes as the White House tries to tackle what officials view as a frustrating disconnect between relatively strong economic data and weak public sentiment. The White House has refused to discuss spending cuts without a debt ceiling vote first. Bernstein last week conceded that the White House's early description of inflation as "transitory" had missed the mark.

Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in three months at 4.65%, now on par with the current Fed policy rate. Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach described the payrolls as a "mood changing" print that's seen markets chase rates higher as if gripped by a sort of reverse FOMO - fear of missing out. Reports circulated last week of swaps and options market activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that bet on market rates touching 6%, or at least hedging against that possibility. If that's true, the battle over the terminal rate may now be overtaken by how long the Fed can keep rates higher to achieve its goals. BofA chart on peak rates from fund manager surveyInflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

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