DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Morning Bid: Bond squeeze abates as Middle East war in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange May 8, 2013. Dallas Fed cheif Lorie Logan added overnight that recent data and bond yield moves gave the central bank space. Reactions in the market were curious, however, with implied Fed policy rates in the futures market and two-year Treasury yields easing back even as 10-year yields chomped at the 5% bit. The resulting further disinversion of the yield curve to show the gap between two and 10-year yields at its lowest in a year is some testament to that. But with another nervous weekend around the Israel-Gaza war ahead, when markets are closed or illiquid, Friday trading has shifted the focus back to short-term safety hedges.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Lorie Logan, Huntington, Loretta Mester, Patrick Harker, Joe Biden, Charles Michel, Ursula von der Leyen, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Atlanta Federal, Dallas Fed, Bank of Japan, L'Oreal, American Express, Interpublic, Schlumberger, Cleveland Federal, Philadelphia Fed, European Council, European Commission Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Israel, Gaza, Europe, China, Comerica, Huntington Bancshares, Washington

☆ Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester: The Fed funds rate is at or near the hold level
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester: The Fed funds rate is at or near the hold levelCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester detailing her support for an additional Fed rate, slow trend growth expectations for next year, and the Fed funds rate nearing its hold level.

Persons: Pres, Loretta Mester, Steve Liesman Organizations: Cleveland Fed

☆ Getting to 2% inflation won't be easy. This is what will need to happen, and it might not be pretty
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Mike Blake | ReutersIn theory, getting inflation closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target doesn't sound terribly difficult. The main culprits are related to services and shelter costs, with many of the other components showing noticeable signs of easing. watch nowInstead, getting better control of rents, medical care services and the like could take ... well, you might not want to know. Policymakers have been banking on the notion that when existing rental leases expire, they will be renegotiated at lower prices, bringing down shelter inflation. He added that the CPI report "is a reminder that we do not have good historic examples to lean on" for long-term patterns in rent inflation.

Persons: Mike Blake, Steven Blitz, Goldman Sachs, Lisa Sturtevant, Christopher Bruen, Marta Norton, Stephen Juneau, Juneau Organizations: Reuters, GlobalData, Street, Cleveland Fed, Bright MLS, Housing, Americas, Morningstar Wealth, Bank of America Locations: Rancho, San Diego , California, Maryland, Stephen Juneau , U.S

☆ Home buyers are finally seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but it is going to be painful for homeowners and sellers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

There is no end in sight for high mortgage rates, and sellers are dropping prices. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe housing market is in an ugly place right now for buyers and while things may be stabilizing, that just means pressure will likely shift from buyers to sellers. Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman made headlines in recent weeks with several interviews where he said the housing market had hit "rock bottom." "The housing market is just taking a beating because affordability is at a four-decade low. While the market might not get worse for buyers, sellers are not yet at rock bottom after enjoying years of rising home values.

Persons: —, Glenn Kelman, Kelman, ZIlloq, Paul Bradbury, Zillow, Jeff Tucker, Redfin, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Luis M, Alvarez, Tom Barkin, Alou Diarra, Getty Organizations: Service, CNBC, Getty, Cleveland Fed, Altos Research, Rosenberg Research, North, AP, Richmond, Fed Locations: North American

☆ Bond rout won't end Fed balance sheet cuts, but endgame bubbling into view
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Since June 2022, the Fed has allowed more than $1 trillion of bonds to mature from its portfolio, including roughly $840 billion of Treasuries. QT drains liquidity from the banking system, reducing bank reserves parked at the Fed and cash stashed in its reverse repo facility. Others believe money market rates will start to move up in ways suggesting the system is short of cash. A New York Fed report in April projected an end to QT around the middle of 2025. A survey of major banks by the New York Fed released in August eyed an end to QT in mid-2024.

Persons: it's, ”, Kathy Bostjancic, Bostjancic, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester, “, Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michael Barr, Michael Cloherty, Mark Cabana, ” Cabana, Cabana, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Fed, San Francisco Fed, UBS, Bank Policy Institute, New York Fed, Bank of America, Daily, Derby, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Washington

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy bond bounce on soft jobs and oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Although both oil and bond yields calmed somewhat overnight, U.S. crude plunged by more than $5 per barrel on Wednesday. The tentative bond bid and shifting interest rate picture stopped the rot in stock markets too, with Wall St stocks rallying on Wednesday and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) staging its biggest daily gain since August. But in a sign of the nervousness, European stock markets stalled again and Wall St futures were back in the red. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Lamb Weston, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Wall, Metro Bank, U.S, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Treasury, Brands, Constellation Brands, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, York

☆ Yen cowers near 150 as intervention chatter runs rife
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. Japanese authorities last year intervened to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. Other currencies similarly fell against the yen in the previous session, with the euro losing more than 1.5% to a low of 154.39 yen. Sterling edged 0.03% lower to $1.20745, languishing near the previous session's close to seven-month low of $1.20535. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she is open to raising interest rates again.

Persons: Florence Lo, James Malcolm, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, Rodrigo Catril, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, UBS, Tokyo, Treasury, Sterling, National Australia Bank, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Washington, Japan

☆ Yen cowers near 150 as Japanese intervention chatter runs rife
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. Japanese authorities last year intervened to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. Other currencies similarly fell against the yen in the previous session, with the euro losing more than 1.5% to a low of 154.39 yen. The Aussie stood at 94.03 yen , after having fallen to an over one-month low of 93.16 yen on Tuesday. Sterling edged 0.02% lower to $1.2076, languishing near the previous session's close to seven-month low of $1.20535.

Persons: Florence Lo, James Malcolm, Shunichi Suzuki, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, Rodrigo Catril, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes, Stephen Coates Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, UBS, Japanese Finance, Tokyo, Treasury, New Zealand, Sterling, National Australia Bank, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Washington, Japan

☆ S&P 500 ends at lowest since June 1 as data fuels rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow turned negative for the year for the first time since June and ended at its lowest level since May 31. Data showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in August, fueling worries about a tight labor market ahead of Friday's key U.S. monthly jobs report. All but one S&P 500 sector - utilities (.SPLRCU) - were lower on the day, led by declines in consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and technology (.SPLRCT). Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 63 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 15 new highs and 439 new lows.

Persons: Dow, Rick Meckler, Brendan McDermid, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, advancers, Caroline Valetkevitch, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: Microsoft, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Investors, Cherry Lane Investments, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Ofcom, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New Vernon , New Jersey, New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

It needs to translate into changes in economic outcomes," Bostic said in comments to reporters alongside the release of a new policy essay. Part of that adaptation is how the Fed's short-term benchmark is translated ultimately into mortgage rates, corporate bonds yields, and other securities that influence economic activity. In separate comments, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she similarly is watching how the rise in bond yields will play out, even though she feels the Fed's policy rate still needs to rise. It may well be that the Fed's hawkish rate posture is no longer the primary impetus for the rise in yields. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Torsten Slok, Slok, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Atlanta Federal Reserve, U.S, Cleveland Fed, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Fitch, Treasury Department, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, Atlanta, China, York

☆ Indexes ended sharply lower as data adds to rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Data showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in August, fueling worries about a tight labor market ahead of Friday's key U.S. monthly jobs report. All but one S&P 500 sector - utilities (.SPLRCU) - were lower on the day, led by declines in consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and technology (.SPLRCT). Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she is open to raising rates again, potentially at the bank's next meeting. While the Dow is down slightly for the year so far, the Nasdaq remains up sharply since Dec. 31 after a rally driven by enthusiasm over artificial intelligence.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Rick Meckler, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Dow, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Major U.S, Federal, Investors, Cherry Lane Investments, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Ofcom, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Major, New Vernon , New Jersey, Bengaluru

☆ Indexes fall at least 1% as data adds to rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Data showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in August, fueling worries about a tight labor market ahead of Friday's key U.S. monthly jobs report. All but one S&P 500 sector - utilities (.SPLRCU) - were lower on the day, led by more than 2% declines in consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and technology (.SPLRCT). Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she is open to raising rates again, potentially at the bank's next meeting. The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 62 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 13 new highs and 390 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Rick Meckler, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Dow, advancers, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Dow, Nasdaq, Major U.S, Federal, Data, Investors, Cherry Lane Investments, Dow Jones, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Ofcom, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Major, New Vernon , New Jersey, Bengaluru

☆ Fed's Mester open to another rate hike if economy stays on current path
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"I probably favor going again, but again, we're going to have to wait and see how the economy evolves." Mester said she expects inflation to return to 2% by the close of 2025. "We're going to have to follow that and watch it and that will influence not only our policy decisions, but how the economy evolves," Mester said. "Over the next year, those tighter or higher rates will have an impact on the economy and we just have to take that into account when we're setting monetary policy." Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, Michael S, Jonathan Oatis, Paul Simao Organizations: Cleveland Federal, U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: bank's

☆ Dow plunges 430 points as yields surge to levels not seen since 2007 and slam US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks plunged on Tuesday after bond yields surged to a new cycle-high not seen since 2007. The 10-year US Treasury Yield jumped above 4.80%, compared to the 3.64% level it was a year ago. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Tuesday as interest rates surged to a new cycle-high, hitting levels not seen since August 2007. The 10-Year US Treasury yield jumped above 4.80%, well above the 3.64% level it was at about a year ago. A still-hot jobs market could push the Federal Reserve to continue with its interest rate hikes in its ongoing bid to tame inflation.

Persons: —, Loretta Mester, Mester Organizations: Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

The 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to expectations around where the Federal Reserve will set its own key borrowing rate, increased slightly to 5.129%. The 10-year Treasury yield was last up just over 9 basis points to 4.781%. The 30-year Treasury yield rose as high 4.874%, also the highest since 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates and as an investor confidence barometer, on Tuesday surged to its highest level since 2007. "Now the Wild Bunch seems to have taken full control of the Treasury market; we're watching to see if the high-yield market is next," he added.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, it's, Loretta Mester, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed Locations: U.S

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. A Labor Department report showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in August, pointing to tight labor market conditions. Traders' bets on at least another 25-basis-point rate hike stood in November and December at 30% and 48%, respectively, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", touched a more than four-month high, reflecting heightened investor anxiety. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 5.99-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3.50-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Jason Pride, KeyBanc, McCormick, advancers, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Dow, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta, Traders, Apple, Reuters, Ofcom, Dow Jones, ADP, HP, BofA Global Research, Boeing, United Airlines, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Glenmede, Philadelphia, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: This Fed's not for turning
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. That thought was echoed by Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, who said: "I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year." Either way, this is not the sound of a Fed who thinks the inflation battle is won. Fed hawkishness, however, has kept futures markets pricing a 50-50 chance of another quarter point rate hike to the 5.50-5.75% range by year-end. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Dolan, they've, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Michael Barr, hawkishness, Raphael Bostic, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Institute, Supply, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Big Tech, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Treasury, McCormick, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S

☆ Fed's Mester says one more U.S. rate hike may be needed
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester takes part in a panel convened to speak about the health of the U.S. economy in New York November 18, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File PhotoNEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Monday that the U.S. central bank most likely isn’t done raising interest rates amid ongoing inflation pressures. The Fed has raised rates aggressively over the last year and a half to help cool inflation. Ebbing price pressures allowed officials to keep the federal funds target rate range at between 5.25% and 5.5% in September. Mester said the economy has proved to be stronger than expected at the start of the summer.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Lucas Jackson, ” Mester, Mester’s, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, “, ”, Mester Organizations: Cleveland Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland Locations: U.S, New York, Cleveland

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Powell and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Hasker will speak at a roundtable discussion, due 11 a.m. Later in the day, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak on the outlook for the U.S. economy. Rivian Automotive (RIVN.O) advanced 2.9% after Evercore ISI raised the EV maker's stock to "outperform" from "in line". Reporting by Shubham Batra and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Patrick Hasker, Loretta Mester, Russell Hackmann, Kevin McCarthy, bitcoin, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Philadelphia Fed, Cleveland Fed, Hackmann Wealth Partners, Democratic, Republican, Dow e, Nvidia, Rivian, ISI, EV, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Powell, Singapore, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: October market fillip as government stays open
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. U.S. Treasury yields, whose relentless rise of late has been at the heart of market disturbances as it prices "higher for longer" interest rates, pushed higher again on Monday too. Ten-year yields were up five basis points to 4.62% - just shy of last week's 16-year peak of 4.69%. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:* US Sept manufacturing surveys by ISM and S&P Global. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, John Williams, Fitch, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Democratic, Republican, Ukraine, Treasury, Bank of Japan, of, Petroleum, Reuters, P Global, Cleveland Fed, New York Fed, Tech, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Chicago, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Russia, OPEC, China, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, York

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Other megacap stocks including Apple (AAPL.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) advanced between 0.9% and 1.9%. Eight of the eleven S&P sub sectors were down, with the utilities index (.SPLRCU), often considered as a bond proxy, declining 4.9%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 4.02-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 2.27-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and 48 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 19 new highs and 211 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Stocks, Paul Ashworth, Kevin McCarthy, advancers, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Cleveland Fed, North, Capital Economics, Democratic, Republican, Dow Jones, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, North America, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Markets strap in for PMI data dump
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A round of purchasing managers index (PMI) data from across the globe continues with Europe on Monday, following Chinese PMI data over the weekend that pointed to mixed levels of services and manufacturing activity last month. Markets have been feeling the pain after stocks, bonds and non-dollar currencies around the world mostly fell in the previous month, as investors adjusted to the idea that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer. Meanwhile, the euro zone has been grappling with recession jitters amid a slew of other indicators, putting a damper on last week's good news that inflation in the area fell to its lowest in two years. Monday's final manufacturing PMI data from the EU will be closely watched after the preliminary report last month painted a mixed picture of the region's economic health; the index showed a rise in September from August's 33-month low, yet still lingered below the mark separating expansion from contraction. Meanwhile, oil prices are up again on Monday, reversing some of Friday's losses.

Persons: Brigid Riley, Luis de Guindos, Michael Barr, John Williams, Patrick Harker, Loretta Mester, Muralikumar Organizations: PMI, August's, Federal, Reuters, ECB, NY, Philly Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Europe, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, Cleveland

☆ Here are 6 key economic signals for markets to follow as the Fed gets ready to make its next policy move
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are six key economic indicators for markets to gauge the health of the US economy. The US is likely headed for a mild recession, according to one chief investment officer. Markets are currently pricing in a 99% chance the Fed will choose to keep interest rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Small business optimism is waningSmall business optimism slumped over the past month to 91.3, down 0.6 points from July's reading. But real wages of Americans have actually fallen 0.5% over the past month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which could spell trouble for the US consumer.

Persons: Brent Schutte, Schutte Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Cleveland Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, University of Michigan's Locations: Wall, Silicon

What they likely won't be changing: Keeping one more rate hike on the table. Given that rosier picture, Luzzetti - like most analysts polled by Reuters - says Fed policymakers probably won't lift the policy rate any further. Many other economists also expect Fed policymakers to signal fewer rate cuts next year. That's only a touch higher than the 3.2% rate the Fed had expected to see at the end of this year. Reuters GraphicsIf progress towards the Fed's 2% goal slows next year though, as many economists forecast, that may mean fewer interest rate cuts next year.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, won't, Matthew Luzzetti, Luzzetti, Tim Duy, Duy, That's, Loretta Mester, Kathy Bostjancic, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, China

☆ ‘Immaculate disinflation’ is the new economic buzzword. But what does it mean?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Economists added yet another term to their lexicon in recent months: immaculate disinflation. That pain tends to come in the form of a higher unemployment rate, which hampers economic growth. Yet the nation’s unemployment rate actually fell from 3.6% in June 2022 to 3.5% in July 2023. That’s leading some economists to believe that immaculate disinflation may be possible. “I wouldn’t call this disinflation immaculate,” he said in a CNBC interview at last month’s Jackson Hole Fed conference.

Persons: there’s, that’s, aren’t, Jerome Powell, Powell, Alex Wong, Joe Biden’s, Jared Bernstein, ”, Jackson, “, Bernstein, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, it’s, Mester Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNBC, Fed, White, Cleveland Fed Locations: New York, United States

Search resuls for: "Cleveland Fed"

25 mentions found