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In 2020, Beijing tried to rein in real estate developers' high reliance on debt with new restrictions on financing. "The decline in the real estate sector was the result of the government's intentional measures to correct the bubbles in the market," Yao said. But he and other economists mostly don't expect real estate to return to significant growth in the future. Morgan StanleyThis week, worries about China's real estate sector persisted with highly indebted Evergrande running into more liquidity problems — along with reports Wednesday its chairman has been put under surveillance. This month, weekly data from Nomura indicate the real estate sales slump has moderated.
Persons: Stringer, Yao Yang, Yao, Dan Wang, Morgan Stanley, Clifford Lau, William Blair, China's, Robin Xing, there's, Bruce Pang, Pang doesn't Organizations: Afp, Getty, National School of Development, Peking University, Hang, China Center for Economic Research, Communist Party, Financial Work, Communist Party of, Nomura, CNBC Locations: Chongqing, China, BEIJING, Covid, Beijing, Shanghai, Hang Seng China, Communist Party of China, JLL
Hong Kong CNN —Evergrande Group has just missed another bond payment, casting further doubt over the future of the embattled property developer at the epicenter of China’s real estate crisis. China’s property industry once accounted for as much as 30% of the country’s gross domestic product. Questions about financial stabilityConcerns over China’s economic stability have resurfaced, driven by the deepening financial crisis at Evergrande, said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management. On Sunday, Evergrande surprised investors with an announcement that it was unable to issue new notes due to the investigation into Hengda. It was the first criminal probe launched against Evergrande since it was hit by the debt crisis nearly two years ago.
Persons: Evergrande, Tao Wang, Stephen Innes, , Innes, Mengchen Zhang, Marc Stewart Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Evergrande, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Getty, China, Asia Economics, UBS, CNN, Evergrande Locations: China, Hong Kong, AFP, Asia, Evergrande
Both camps argue their proposals should be treated with urgency by policymakers, ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, an agenda-setting gathering of top leaders expected in December. The pro-reform camp is beating the drum for faster structural reforms, including relaxing the system of residence permits, or "hukou", to spur consumption, removing market entry barriers for private firms at the cost of state giants. Reforms are urgently needed as growth engines such as property, exports and infrastructure are stalling, he said. Structural reforms with expansionary effects can also have immediate effects." TIGHTROPEDespite the heated debate, analysts expect Chinese leaders can walk a tightrope between stimulus and reforms.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Yu Yongding, Yu, Kristalina Georgieva, Liu Shijin, Liu, It's, Tao Wang, Deng Xiaoping, Yi Xianrong, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: Central Business, REUTERS, Economic Work Conference, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Fund, UBS, Asian Development Bank, Qingdao University, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, China's, United States
China keeps benchmark rates unchanged as economy finds footing
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.45%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.20%. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. Despite the steady LPR, some market watchers said recent property easing measures suggest cuts to the five-year LPR and more policy stimulus are likely in coming months. China cut the one-year benchmark lending rate in August but surprised markets by keeping the five-year rate unchanged.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Xing Zhaopeng, Xing, Wang Tao, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, ANZ, UBS, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States
We've upgraded China stocks, TS Lombard economist says
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe've upgraded China stocks, TS Lombard economist saysRory Green, chief China economist and head of Asia research at TS Lombard, discusses the Chinese property market, stimulus measures and the outlook for stocks.
Persons: Rory Green Organizations: We've, TS Lombard Locations: China, Asia
China said last week it would cut interest rates on existing mortgages and eased rules for first-time buyers in big cities, in what the central bank and financial regulators jointly said were moves "conducive to expanding consumption." But to prevent profit margins from shrinking further, state-owned banks have also lowered deposit rates by 10-25 basis points in a coordinated move. But they also warn that a 15 basis point cut in interest rates on Chinese households' 131.4 trillion yuan of deposits reduces interest income by 197 billion per year. Mortgage rates for first homes are around 4%, while one-year fixed deposit rates are roughly 1.5%. "People don't consume because they don't have money so cutting deposit rates cannot really work."
Persons: Simon, Yu, government's, Ting Lu, Zhaopeng Xing, Li Xiao, Li, Guo, Nancy Yang, Yang, Jason Xue, Samuel Shen, Winni Zhou, Gao, Ellen Zhang, Ziyi Tang, Joe Cash, Marius Zaharia, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Nomura, ANZ, HIT, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, Shanghai, Beijing, China, Guangdong, Wuhan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChinese investment in traditional sectors poised to increase, economist saysDuncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says forthcoming data is likely to show an acceleration in investment in China's traditional sectors, including infrastructure and property.
Persons: Duncan Wrigley Organizations: Pantheon Locations: China
REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, Aug 25 (Reuters) - China's banks will cut deposit rates soon as part of efforts to make mortgages more affordable and revive property demand, analysts reading China's cryptic policy messages reckon. But China did not opt for a broad rate cut that would further depress banks' narrow net interest margins, instead deferring to banks to cut their deposit rates and give themselves room to cheapen mortgages, analysts said. Lowering deposit rates will give banks much needed wiggle room to cut mortgage rates. "Further reductions to the deposit rates are 'arrows on the string,'" said Wang Yifeng, banking analyst at Everbright Securities. He also expects a tweak to rules so that existing mortgage rates can be reset lower.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Wang Yifeng, Zhu Qibing, LPR, Zhu, Lu Ting, Lu, Xing Zhaopeng, Xing, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Samuel Shen, Vidya Ranganathan, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: China Securities Regulatory Commission, REUTERS, Rights, Bankers, Everbright Securities, People's Bank of China, BOC International China, Nomura, ANZ, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Shanghai, Singapore
Greg Baker | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Without more stimulus, China is increasingly likely to miss its growth target of around 5% this year, economists said. "In such a case, economic momentum may stay subdued in the rest of the year and China may miss this year's growth target of around 5%," she said. China is the world's second-largest economy, and accounted for nearly 18% of global GDP in 2022, according to World Bank data. "We also see bigger downside risk to our 4.9% y-o-y growth forecast for both Q3 and Q4, and it is increasingly possible that annual GDP growth this year will miss the 5.0% mark," the report said. Growth vs. national securityChinese authorities' initial crackdown on real estate developers in 2020 was an attempt to curb their high reliance on growth.
Persons: Greg Baker, Tao Wang, spender, Nomura Ting Lu, Ting Lu, haven't, Louise Loo, Loo, that's, Xiangrong Yu, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Wildau Organizations: Afp, Getty, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, China, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust, Information, Beijing, CNBC, Baoshang Bank, Anbang Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, Asia, People's Bank of China
The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. Smaller Chinese cities, whose revenues have already been deteriorating, could have a glut of unfinished homes, a social problem Beijing is trying to avoid. But as China's economy started slowing during and after its COVID-19 lockdowns, property sales in those areas has plummeted along with values of the homes themselves. Country Garden's sales in 2020 were 570.7 billion yuan ($78.22 billion), but that slipped to 357.5 billion yuan in 2022. Country Garden has nearly 1 million homes to complete, according to estimates from Japanese investment bank Nomura.
Persons: Aly, HONG KONG, Oscar Choi, Yang Huiyan, Lu Ting, Nomura, Gerwin Bell, Clare Jim, Liangping Gao, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, Country, HK, National Bureau, Statistics, Partners Capital, China Evergrande, Oxford Economics, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Beijing, Dezhou, Hong Kong, Asia, Washington, New York
The 0.2% fall month-on-month came after June's flat reading, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. The decline in home prices comes amid a worsening debt crisis at major developers, sliding property investment and home sales. Among 70 cities, 49 saw a fall in new home prices month-on-month in July from 38 cities the previous month. However, most economists expect the downside trend in home sales and prices to persist for while. "Without additional major policy easing and/or fiscal support, property sales and investment may weaken further or stay at the bottom for longer than assumed in our baseline," said Wang.
Persons: Jason Lee, Goldman Sachs, Wang Tao, Wang, Qiaoyi Li, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Goldman, Asia Economics, China, UBS Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Wangjing, China, BEIJING, Zhengzhou, Xian, Fuzhou
Construction workers take a nap in front of a wall of a construction site during their lunch break in Beijing, China, May 5, 2015. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon /File PhotoAug 15 (Reuters) - China suspended publication of its youth jobless data on Tuesday, saying it needed to review the methodology behind the closely watched benchmark, which has hit record highs in one of many warning signs for the world's second-largest economy. Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said the release of data would be suspended while authorities look to "optimise" collection methods. "The declining availability of macro data may further weaken global investors' confidence in China," said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, adding that youth unemployment was expected to have risen in July. The most recent NBS data on youth unemployment, published last month, showed the jobless rate jumping to a record high of 21.3% in June.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Fu Linghui, Fu, Ting Lu, Tuesday's, Laurie Chen, Albee Zhang, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sam Holmes, Gerry Doyle Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Nomura, China News Service, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Weibo
Real estate problems persist with once-healthy developer Country Garden now on the brink of default. Real estate dragChina's massive real estate sector, where the majority of household wealth is parked, has reemerged as an area of concern that it could drag down the broader economy. Developer Country Garden announced over the weekend it was suspending trading in at least 10 of its mainland-China traded yuan bonds. The more the government tries to help the real estate industry, the longer it takes for the industry to find a reasonable bottom. State-owned developers have also fared better in terms of recent sales than non-state-owned developers, data show.
Persons: Aly Song, Lu Ting, corporates, Xiangrong Yu, Goldman Sachs, Louis Lau Brandes, Louis Lau Organizations: Bund, Reuters, Nomura, Citi New, Citi, Garden, ., Country Garden's U.S, China U.S, Goldman, Louis Lau Brandes Investment Partners, Brandes Investment Partners Locations: Pudong, Shanghai, China, Reuters BEIJING, Japan, today's China, corporates, State, South Korea
Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. BEIJING'S DILEMMALocal government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.8 trillion), or 76% of economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019. To avoid that risk, the adviser suggested all stakeholders bear some of the burden: financial institutions, local governments, Beijing and society at large. From 2015 to 2018, local governments issued some 12 trillion yuan of bonds to swap for off-balance sheet debt. For the local debt problem to stop re-occuring policymakers need to implement profound changes to how the economy works.
Persons: Florence Lo, China's, Guo Tianyong, Logan Wright, , Tao Wang, Guo, Rhodium's Wright, Marius Zaharia Organizations: REUTERS, Beijing, Communist Party, Central University of Finance, Economics, Monetary Fund, Reuters, Local, UBS, BBVA, Thomson Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, , China, Lincoln
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe Bank of Japan announced Friday "greater flexibility" in its monetary policy — surprising global financial markets. The central bank loosened its yield curve control — or YCC — in an unexpected move with wide-ranging ramifications. When asked if the central bank had shifted from dovish to neutral, he said: "That's not the case. MUFG said that Friday's "flexibility" tweak shows the central bank is not yet ready to end this policy measure.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Shigeto Nagai, CNBC's, , Duncan Wrigley, MUFG, Governor Ueda, Michael Metcalfe, Metcalfe Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Getty, of Japan, Nasdaq, Oxford Economics, disinflation, Capital Economics, U.S, U.S . Federal, Bank, Pantheon, Street Global Locations: Europe, Japan, U.S ., China, dovish
Construction on a real estate project in Yantai, Shandong province, gets under way on July 8, 2023. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China is changing its tone on the struggling real estate sector, paving the way for policy support. The statement reflects a "much clearer understanding about the seriousness of the situation," said Qin Gang, executive director of China real estate research institute ICR. He expects policies beneficial to the real estate market and consumption will come out in coming days. So far, the biggest real estate policy change has been this month's extension of measures to support developers, which were first revealed in November.
Persons: Larry Hu, Hu, Qin Gang, Ricky Tsang, China's, Tsang, It's, Zong Liang, Zong, Tommy Wu, Wu Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, CNBC, Macquarie, People's Bank of China, Qin, Seng Property Development, National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of China Locations: Yantai, Shandong province, BEIJING, China
Its Shanghai-traded bond surged 25% to 38 yuan, while a Shenzhen-traded bond rose 44% to 33.6 yuan. "Most important, (Beijing) sent a signal of further easing property restrictions by dropping the phrase...and mentioning streaming property policies," Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu said. Sino-Ocean Group's onshore bond rose 8.6% to 23.5 yuan in Shanghai. The state-backed firm is currently negotiating with creditors to extend the repayment for the yuan bond due Aug. 2. Nomura's Lu maintained the view that there is no quick fix for the property sector, and that the central government would only marginally ease some existing restrictive measures in large cities.
Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu, Nomura's Lu, Morgan Stanley, Clare Jim, Jason Xue, Sherry Jacob, Phillips, Sam Holmes Organizations: Mainland Properties, CSI, HK, Garden Services, Communist Party, Longfor, Seazen, KWG, Ocean Group, Greenland Holdings, Country Garden, Dalian Wanda Group, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hang, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, China
HONG KONG, July 25 (Reuters) - Shares of China's property developers surged on Tuesday following a sharp selloff in the previous session, after policymakers said they would step up support for the embattled sector. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (.HSMPI) jumped 12%, while Chinese CSI 300 Real Estate (.CSI000952) gained 7%. "Most important, (Beijing) sent a signal of further easing property restrictions by dropping the phrase...and mentioning streaming property policies," Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu said. Lu, however, maintained the view that there is no quick fix for the property sector, and the central government would only marginally ease some existing restrictive measures in large cities. In recent weeks, investors were wary of a deepening debt crisis in the property sector as new signs of trouble emerged among state-backed property developers Sino-Ocean Group (3377.HK) and Greenland Holdings (600606.SS), as well as property giants Country Garden (2007.HK) and Dalian Wanda Group.
Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu, Lu, Morgan Stanley, Clare Jim, Sherry Jacob, Phillips, Sam Holmes Organizations: Mainland Properties, CSI, HK, Longfor, Seazen, KWG, Communist Party, Ocean Group, Greenland Holdings, Country, Dalian Wanda Group, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hang, Hong Kong, China, HK, Beijing
Hong Kong CNN —China has promised to throw its weight behind private businesses, just days after a slew of economic data showed growth momentum had slumped. The measures include promises to break down barriers to market access for private firms, to “fully implement” a system of fair competition and to strengthen enforcement of anti-monopoly laws. “We believe that the … pivot from the top level is real, but it’s not enough to bring back the animal spirit among private companies,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group, wrote in a research note. That pledge had marked a major shift from leader Xi Jinping’s years-long effort to rein in private businesses, which were perceived as too powerful and disorderly. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed 0.7% higher, after falling in several previous trading sessions.
Persons: , Larry Hu, Xi Jinping’s, Premier Li Qiang, Li, , Ma, Lei Jun Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, State Council, Macquarie Group, , Investment, Premier, Alibaba, Tencent, Nasdaq, Dragon Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, New York, Dragon China, Shanghai
(Reuters) -J.P.Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup trimmed China’s growth forecast for 2023 after the country’s economy grew at a weaker pace in the second quarter, with its post-COVID momentum unravelling rapidly. “Market scepticism on China’s growth outlook is on the rise,” said Morgan Stanley economists led by Robin Xing. JPM cut China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 5% from 5.5%. Citi, meanwhile, expects a 20 bps cut in the policy rate and 25 bps in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by the end of the third quarter. Goldman Sachs, however, maintained its 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast at 5.4%, even as they cut their current-quarter growth forecast to 5.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis from 6.5% previously.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Robin Xing, China’s, JPM, , Xiangrong Yu, ” Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lisheng Wang Organizations: Reuters, Citigroup, Citi Locations: China, Beijing
Hong Kong CNN —China has extended some policies to bolster its ailing property market, as the country struggles to reignite economic growth. Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group, wrote in a research note that the extension of policies on two types of loans were meant to encourage commercial banks to increase their exposure to the property sector. “[This] move will help restore confidence and bring much-needed liquidity into the property supply chain, with beneficial effects on short-term confidence,” he said. The property market is still in the midst of a historic downturn. To bolster growth, the People’s Bank of China cut its main benchmark lending rates in June for the first time in 10 months.
Persons: Larry Hu, , ” Stephen Innes Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Financial Regulatory Administration, Macquarie Group, Management, Beijing, People’s Bank of China Locations: Hong Kong, China, China’s
The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 52.5 from 55.6 in May, marking the sixth straight month of expansion. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."
Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, COVID, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSequential stablization in China data key for improvement in market sentiment: Bank of AmericaPolicy support will be needed if there is a continual downward spiral in China's economic data, says Winnie Wu, Bank of America's chief China equity strategist.
Persons: Winnie Wu Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of America's Locations: China
China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months in June, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday, as weakening demand weighed on post-pandemic recovery momentum. The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."
Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight Locations: China, Covid
Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were mostly flat after Wall Street's bullish run met resistance on Friday. Cash U.S. Treasuries were untraded due to the Juneteenth holiday, while futures were largely steady. The People's Bank of China is widely expected to cut its benchmark loan prime interest rates on Tuesday, following a similar reduction in medium-term policy loans last week. Several major banks last week cut their growth forecasts for China after the recent disappointing data. U.S. crude futures fell 1.0% to 71.03 per barrel, and Brent crude was down 1.3% at $75.63 per barrel.
Persons: BOE, Jerome Powell's, bullish, HSI, Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing, Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, POWELL, Powell, Ray Attrill, Brent, Stella Qiu, Christopher Cushing, Tom Hogue Organizations: Nikkei, . Federal, Nasdaq, Cash U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan's, U.S ., People's Bank of, National Australia Bank, The Bank of England, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, Japan, People's Bank of China, .
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