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Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America
At its December meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could institute up to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. The first thing Sahm said to look out for is whether or not Powell makes clear that they will not cut rates at the March meeting. If he seems upbeat, it could indicate that the Fed is going to take a more dovish stance and cut rates on the earlier side. This would likely manifest via trouble in financial markets that then affects the real economy. They're taking some big risks in that they're talking about the real economy being resilient, and yet I don't think that's where — if the Fed causes a problem they're doing it in the real economy first," she said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Powell, Stocks, Organizations: Louis, Business, National Bureau of Economic, Fed Locations: St, Sahm
Gold prices have increased since the Ukraine War but have soared to record highs since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. Other factors are the weakening US dollar and expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Gold prices could close the year as much as 10% above current levels on the back of potential interest rate cuts, UBS strategists said, despite declines at the start of 2024. Markets are increasingly uncertain that the Fed will begin interest rate cuts in March. Analysts tied the rise to interest rate expectations and the global volatility stemming from the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Persons: Gold Organizations: Federal Reserve, UBS, Federal, Scotiabank, Fed, U.S, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, World Gold, Analysts Locations: Birmingham, England, Ukraine, Israel, London
Dollar holds near one-month peak as dovish Fed bets recede
  + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar held close to a one-month peak versus major peers on Thursday after robust U.S. retail sales data overnight added to building expectations the Federal Reserve will not rush to lower interest rates. Australia's dollar weakened after data showed an unexpected decline in employment. Traders have trimmed the odds of a first Fed rate cut by March to 53.8%, down from 63.1% on Tuesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg there would likely be majority support among ECB officials for an interest rate cut in the summer, although she stressed they would be data-dependent. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar weakened after data showed a 65,100 drop in jobs for December, where economists had forecast a 17,600 increase.
Persons: CME's, Christopher Waller, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Christine Lagarde, Sterling Organizations: Reserve, U.S, hawkish Bank, Japan, Traders, IG, Bloomberg, Bank of England, British, greenback Locations: Japan
Dollar at one-month high as rate cut expectations ease on Fedspeak
  + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar index hovered at a one-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller dampened expectations for a March rate cut. "I will need more information in the coming months confirming or (conceivably) challenging the notion that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our inflation goal," before backing rate cuts, he said on Tuesday. Market expectations of a rate cut in March have eased to a 62.2% chance versus an 76.9% view in the prior session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. "Rate cuts are coming but not as soon as some might be hoping for," Sycamore said. Meanwhile, the euro was hanging near a one-month low at $1.0875 after its steepest one-day percentage drop in two weeks, following comments from several ECB policymakers this week that maintained uncertainty over the timing of rate cuts.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, CME's, Tony Sycamore, Christine Lagarde, Sycamore, Sterling, Rodrigo Catril Organizations: Federal Reserve, IG, European Central Bank, Treasury, Bank of Japan, National Australia Bank Locations: U.S, Asia
In December, the policymakers collectively forecast that they would cut their rate three times this year. The Fed prefers for inflation to be about 2%, which it sees as having little negative effect on the economy. Fed officials, he added, will want to see further evidence that inflation is still on track to 2% before embarking on rate cuts. Before Waller spoke, Wall Street investors had placed a 72% likelihood of a rate cut in March, based on futures prices. Waller's comments followed similarly optimistic remarks from John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, last week.
Persons: Christopher Waller, , ” Waller, Waller, Krishna Guha, Waller's, ” Guha, John Williams, Williams, Powell's, ” Williams Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Fed's, of Governors, Fed, Wall Street, Brookings Institution, , Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
European markets closed lower Thursday after U.S. inflation came in above expectations. After a choppy session, the regional Stoxx 600 index finished 0.77% lower, with all sectors in the red. December's U.S. inflation report showed an increase in consumer prices of 0.3% on the month and 3.4% year-on-year. "While the critical core inflation measure, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, continues to ease from its highs, the downward trend in this measure also appears to have stalled. U.S. stocks also turned lower on Thursday morning as Wall Street digested the inflation data and the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season.
Persons: Spencer, Dow Jones, Matthew Ryan Organizations: Bank, Marks, Tesco, Investors, Federal Reserve, Nikkei Locations: U.S, Asia
Dollar steady as traders weigh labour data, rate outlook
  + stars: | 2023-12-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was 0.019% higher at 103.99, having climbed 0.3% overnight. Data also showed there were 1.34 vacancies for every unemployed person in October, the lowest since August 2021. "This week the highlight is payrolls (report)," OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said, adding that a downside surprise could see dollar rebound stall. Investors believe the European Central Bank could deliver its first rate cut by March. Inflation across the euro zone has fallen more quickly than most anticipated, as evidenced by last Thursday's consumer price data.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin, Organizations: Reserve, Traders, ANZ, Fed, Investors, European Central Bank Locations: U.S
US job openings in October fell to their lowest level since 2021. In October, available job openings fell to 8.7 million from a downwardly revised 9.4 million in September. Driven largely by the retail sector, the number of job openings dipped from a downwardly revised 9.4 million job openings in September, to 8.7 million by the end of October, below the consensus forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and the lowest level since early 2021. AdvertisementThe latest job opening figures reinforce the case for a soft-landing scenario — job openings are moving higher yet the unemployment has remained relatively low. "By that ratio, a measure of labor market tightness often cited by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the labor market has slackened substantially in recent months."
Persons: It's, , Julia Pollak, Jerome Powell, Pollak, CME's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Fed, ING, Barclays
Markets are betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as early 2024. AdvertisementWall Street largely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate-hiking cycle, and markets are betting central bankers will begin easing policy soon. Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president, November 29: "If inflation comes down naturally and smoothly, awesome. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, November 30: "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now. John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, November 30: "My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate."
Persons: Jerome Powell, , CME's, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, ING, Barclays, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal
Gold prices sprint to all-time peak on Fed rate-cut bets
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices bolted to an all-time high above $2,100 per ounce on Monday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks elevated traders' confidence that the U.S. central bank could cut interest rates early next year. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing bullion. Investor focus now shift to U.S. non-farm payrolls data — a key employment report due on Friday, that could influence the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Spot silver rose 0.1% to $25.45 per ounce, palladium fell 0.4% to $929.93 per ounce, and platinum was down 0.1% at $999.35.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, we're, Tim Waterer, Waterer, CME's, Christopher Waller Organizations: Aurum, KCM Trade, Traders, U.S, Fed Locations: U.S
Dollar on shaky ground as Fed rate cut bets strengthen
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Brigid Riley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Powell said on Friday it was clear that U.S. monetary policy was slowing the economy as expected, with the benchmark overnight interest rate "well into restrictive territory." The U.S. dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, was last hovering around Friday's close at 103.28. That means dollar pairs could continue to get a boost depending on U.S. economic data, Rodda said. Against the yen, the dollar was fetching $146.58 yen , after falling to 146.24 earlier in the session, its lowest since Sept. 11. The yen has recently pulled away from the near 33-year low of 151.92 per dollar touched in the middle of November.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Bitcoin, Powell, Kyle Rodda, Rodda, Sterling, Christine Lagarde, Carol Kong, bitcoin, Brigid Riley, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal, U.S, U.S ., European Central Bank, ECB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, U.S, cryptocurrencies
Spot gold rose 0.3% at $2,042.58 per ounce by 0621 GMT on Friday, and is up about 2% for the week so far. The metal rose $60 in November in its second straight monthly gain. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. "However, month-end flow may have also been a factor, and seasonality tends to favour gains for gold between November and December," City Index's Simpson added. Spot silver and platinum edged up 0.1% to $25.29 and $927.44 per ounce, respectively, while palladium rose 0.4% to $1,011.65.
Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Powell, Matt Simpson, CME's, Index's Simpson, Hugo Pascal, Harshit Verma, Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Mrigank Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Traders, U.S, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, U.S, Bengaluru
A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Markets are now fully pricing a rate cut by the May meeting with almost a 50% chance they move in March, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Reuters GraphicsThe 10-year yield is down around 15 basis points and on Thursday hit its lowest level in 2-1/2 months at 4.247%. On Wednesday, the dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, touched its lowest level since Aug. 11 and dropped over 3% last month, its worst month in a year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Christopher Waller, Europe's, Fed's, Fed's Cook, ECB's, Fitch, Toby Chopra Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, COVID, P Global, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, France, Greece, Ireland, DBRS, Germany, Spain
Gold set for 3rd weekly gain as cooler data cements Fed cut bets
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices were set to mark a third straight weekly rise on Friday, after data showing cooling inflation cemented bets for a rate cut in the U.S., with traders looking forward to comments from Federal Reserve's Chair Powell later in the day. Spot gold rose 0.2% at $2,039.42 per ounce by 0427 GMT, after marking an over $60 rise in November — its second straight monthly rise. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. "However, month-end flow may have also been a factor, and seasonality tends to favor gains for gold between November and December," City Index's Simpson added.
Persons: Powell, Matt Simpson, CME's, Index's Simpson, Hugo Pascal Organizations: Aurum, Traders, U.S Locations: U.S, InProved
Gold holds ground ahead of U.S. inflation test
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A technician cleans impurities from melted gold bars at Primera Gold's laboratory in Bukavu, South Kivu Province, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, May 12, 2023. Gold prices consolidated in a tight range on Thursday, hovering close to a near seven-month high, as investors awaited a key inflation print to gauge whether interest rate cuts in the U.S. would come sooner than expected. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,041.76 per ounce by 0543 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 5 on Wednesday, and was poised for its second straight monthly gain. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2% to $2,042.40 per ounce. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $24.95 per ounce.
Persons: Bullion, Yeap Jun Rong, Jerome Powell Organizations: Primera Gold's, U.S, Federal, Traders Locations: Bukavu, South Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo, U.S
Gold holds ground ahead of US inflation test
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Harshit Verma | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee casts ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. Spot gold was flat at $2,044.30 per ounce by 0728 GMT, trading in a range of about $6. It hit its highest since May 5 on Wednesday, and was poised for its second straight monthly gain. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.1% to $2,045.40 per ounce. Reporting by Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Sonia CheemaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Yeap Jun Rong, Jerome Powell, Harshit Verma, Rashmi Aich, Mrigank Dhaniwala, Sonia Cheema Organizations: REUTERS, PCE, U.S, Fed, Traders, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, U.S, Bengaluru
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,044.53 per ounce by 0453 GMT after hitting its highest since May 5. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3% to $2,045.40 per ounce. "The key point data to look for is the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) data and markets are expecting another slowdown in inflationary pressure in U.S.," said Wong. Investors' attention is now on the revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures, due at 1330 GMT and on key PCE data — Fed's preferred inflation gauge — on Thursday. According to Reuters' technical analyst Wang Tao, spot gold may extend gains into a range of $2,059 to $2,069 per ounce.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Wong, Christopher Waller —, CME's, Wang Tao Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, Traders, Reuters Locations: OANDA,
"The GDP data helped the dollar a little bit. "So if we're seeing some strength on the cyclical side of the economy, then that could be challenging the rate cut narrative a little bit." U.S. rate futures, however, increased bets of a rate cut starting in March, following the GDP data, to a nearly 50% chance of easing, compared with nearly 35% late on Tuesday, the CME's FedWatch tool showed. Comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagging a possible rate cut in the months ahead sent U.S. bond yields and the dollar sliding on Tuesday. China's onshore yuan finished the domestic session at 7.1246 per dollar, the strongest closing price since June 16.
Persons: Erik F, Christopher Waller, Wells Fargo's Nelson Organizations: US, Swiss, New Zealand, U.S . Commerce Department, Reuters, New, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Locations: Swedish, Hamburg, Germany, U.S, Wells Fargo, London, Europe's, Spain
The dollar index , which measures its value against six major currencies, fell as far as 102.89, the lowest since Aug. 31. The index is on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance since November 2022. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 102.0 this month from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October. In other currencies, the euro rose to a 3-1/2-month peak of $1.0985 . The dollar fell 0.2% to 148.33 yen , with the Japanese currency continuing its recovery from the brink of 152 per dollar earlier in the month.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Karl Schamotta, underscoring, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Alun John, Brigid Riley, Ed Osmond, Mark Potter, Kevin Liffey Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal Reserve, Board, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Traders, Australian, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Swiss, U.S, Toronto, OPEC, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New York, London, Tokyo
"But I think it's not just this week's inflation indicator, it's also the December payroll numbers ... they'll be quite critical." "Our view is that the Fed will probably start cutting rates when inflation goes below the 3% mark. The weaker-than-expected data weighed on Treasury yields, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes slipping 9.6 basis points on Monday. The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to 103.07, its lowest since Aug. 31. Data showed retail sales in Australia unexpectedly slipped in October as consumers cut back on everything but food, though analysts believe many were merely saving some money to splurge on Black Friday sales that took place this month.
Persons: DAX, Vasu Menon, they'll, Menon, Dave Ramsden, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, HSI, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill Organizations: Federal, Investors, OCBC Bank, of England, European Central Bank, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Singapore, U.S, Hong Kong, Australia
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) eased 0.20% but is up 8% this month, on course for its strongest monthly performance in three years. "The outlook for central bank policy has been a big factor driving the improvement in risk appetite in November," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank. Investors will focus this week on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation on Thursday and euro zone consumer inflation figures for further clarity on the where inflation is headed. The weaker-than-expected data weighed on Treasury yields, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes slipping 9.6 basis points on Monday. The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to 103.11, its lowest since Aug. 31.
Persons: Rodrigo Catril, Catril, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, HSI, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, Japan's Nikkei, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Treasury, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, U.S, OPEC
Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Gold steadied after touching a six-month peak on Tuesday, as expectations of an end to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle kept the dollar and bond yields under check. Spot gold was little changed at $2,014.12 per ounce by 0412 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 16. The dollar index touched its lowest since late August against its rivals, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Spot silver fell 0.3% to $24.55 per ounce, platinum was down 0.5% to $913.90.
Persons: Gold, Matt Simpson, Simpson, CME's Organizations: Aurum, U.S, Index, Fed, Traders Locations: Munich, U.S . Federal, U.S, China, Hong Kong
Wall St ends lower amid Cyber Monday madness
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers later in the week will also be parsed for clues regarding the duration of the central bank's restrictive policy. Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Amid the Cyber Monday fervor, Affirm Holdings (AFRM.O) surged 12.0%, as the payment platform's "buy now, pay later" option was seen hitting an all-time high, boosting the online holiday sales. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.63-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 79 new lows.
Persons: Elliott, Tom Hainlin, Greg Bassuk, Brendan McDermid, they’ve, Hainlin, Shopify, Stephen Culp, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Ganguli, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Adobe Analytics, AXS Investments, Federal Reserve, Financial, Commerce, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Elliott Investment Management, GE HealthCare, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Minneapolis, New York, New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was slightly higher, the Dow was edging red and the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged, but leaning lower. The S&P 500 Retail index (.SPXRT) was up 0.9%. Later in the week, market participants look to the Commerce Department's second take on third-quarter GDP expected on Wednesday, to be followed on Friday with its broad-ranging Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. The S&P 500 posted 34 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 64 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Elliott, Dow, Greg Bassuk, Bassuk, Shopify, Stephen Culp, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Ganguli, Matthew Lewis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Adobe Analytics, AXS Investments, Federal Reserve, Financial, Commerce, Dow Jones, Walmart, Elliott Investment Management, GE HealthCare, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru
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