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Extreme backwardation implied traders expected the balance to remain tight, with a further drawdown of already depleted inventories, and more upward pressure on oil prices. In late November, after consultations with traders, the U.S. Treasury published regulations signalling a relatively relaxed approach to enforcement (“Guidance on implementation of price cap policy”, OFAC, Nov. 22). Following last-minute discussions, on Dec. 2 the cap was set at $60, with a commitment to review it by mid- January 2023 and every two months thereafter (“G7 agrees oil price cap”, European Commission, Dec. 3). SETTING THE PRICE CAP LEVELIn setting a price cap for Russia’s crude and products, U.S. and EU officials have been confronted by a menu of policy options and other considerations. Related columns:- Investors dumped Brent in anticipation of relaxed oil price cap (Reuters, Dec. 5)- Global recession a bigger risk to Russia’s oil revenue than price cap (Reuters, Nov. 11)- Recession would make tough oil sanctions on Russia more likely (Reuters, July 14)- Oil market confronts U.S. and EU policymakers with unpalatable choices (Reuters, June 29)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Portfolio investors sold petroleum heavily for the third week running as fears about disruption to crude oil flows from the price cap on Russia’s exports receded. Sales over the three most recent weeks totalled 190 million barrels, more than reversing the 169 million barrels purchased over the previous six weeks in October and early November. In the latest week, sales were again concentrated in crude (-40 million barrels), especially Brent (-39 million), with only insignificant changes in other contracts. Fears the price cap would reduce global crude supplies appear to have prompted a wave of buying in both physical and paper markets throughout late September and early October. With the risk from the price cap removed, for now investors’ attention has returned to the weak outlook for the economy and oil consumption in 2023.

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Europe's gas inventories are on course to end the winter of 2022/23 at one of the highest levels on record - if prices stay high and provided pipeline deliveries from Russia continue. Exceptionally high prices, energy conservation, and warmer-than-normal temperatures since the middle of October have combined to cut consumption and attract large volumes of imported LNG. Depletions have ranged from as much as -712 TWh in the winter of 2018/19 to as little as -311 TWh in the winter of 2014/15. Related columns:- Europe's gas storage peaks after record refill season (Reuters, Nov. 18)- Europe's gas prices retreat as storage almost full (Reuters, Oct. 13)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)- Europe tops up gas stocks, but winter demand cuts essential (Reuters, Sept. 7)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Summary Brent, WTI fall for third consecutive weekEU delays talks on Russian oil price cap until next weekPoland seeks German support for EU sanctions on pipelineNEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 2% on Friday in thin market liquidity, closing a week marked by worries about Chinese demand and haggling over a Western price cap on Russian oil. Brent crude futures settled down $1.71, or 2%, to trade at $83.63 a barrel, having retraced some earlier gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.66, or 2.1%, at $76.28 a barrel. This is starting to hit fuel demand, with traffic drifting down and implied oil demand around 1 million barrels per day lower than average, an ANZ note showed. Meanwhile, G7 and European Union diplomats have been discussing a Russian oil price cap between $65 and $70 a barrel, but an agreement has still not been reached.

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - European traders are rushing to fill tanks in the region with Russian diesel before an EU ban begins in February, as alternative sources remain limited. The European Union will ban Russian oil product imports, on which it relies heavily for its diesel, by Feb. 5. Part of the influx comes as ICE Futures Europe bans low-sulphur gasoil of Russian origin ahead of EU sanctions. Russian gasoil can still arrive in ARA storage tanks in December, but it must be moved to other tanks from which no delivery can be made, according to ICE. In January 2022, 70,000 tonnes of gasoil were delivered through the Ice gasoil futures exchange's website shows.

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel trading has turned wild again this week. LME and ShFE nickel contracts price and volumeVOLATILITY TRAPThe fund exodus after March has left a liquidity vacuum and a self-reinforcing volatility trap in the nickel market. ("A financially constrained physical market", April 3, 2022)LME nickel trading volumes have fallen steeply since March. Year-to-date nickel volumes are 24% below last year's equivalent period, the scale of decline flattered by strong trading activity in January and February. But until inventory and volumes rebuild, time-spread turbulence and perma-backwardation are becoming the new normal in the Shanghai market.

A sale of Westbrick would mark an exit from the Canadian oil and gas production business for KKR. KKR has owned Westbrick for a decade, longer than most of its investments, making a sale logical, one of the sources said. KKR invested C$250 million in Westbrick when it was a smaller producer in 2012. Apart from Westbrick, KKR's other investments in Canada include gas processing assets and a stake in the Coastal GasLink pipeline under construction. "Anyone who knows me knows that Westbrick has been for sale every day since our existence," he told Reuters via email.

☆ Saudi Arabia may cut crude prices for Asia for Dec cargoes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Muyu Xu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Companies Saudi Arabian Oil Co FollowSINGAPORE, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may cut the prices of most crude grades to Asia in December as weaker-than-expected fuel consumption in China amid its strict COVID-19 rules put a lid on regional demand, trade sources said. The price cut comes as China, the world's largest crude oil buyer, extended stringent mobility controls to contain the highly transmissible Omicron variant after a surge in daily reported cases. ,Saudi crude OSPs are released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting more than 9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude bound for Asia. Saudi Aramco sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and after calculating the change in the value of its oil over the past month, based on yields and product prices. Below are expected Saudi prices for December (in $/bbl against the Oman/Dubai average):Reporting by Muyu Xu; Editing by Christian SchmollingerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel supplies are becoming critically low with shortages and price spikes likely to occur in the next six months unless and until the economy and fuel consumption slow. The deficit has been worsening steadily since the start of the year when stocks were 15 million barrels (-11% or -1.18 standard deviations) below the ten-year average. Chartbook: U.S. distillate fuel oil inventoriesReflecting the intensifying fuel shortage, futures prices for ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) delivered in New York Harbor in December are trading at a premium of $60 per barrel over Brent. If confirmed that would take some of the pressure of distillate inventories. Rebalancing diesel supply will likely require a further rise in interest rates and tighter financial conditions in the United States and other major economies to reduce fuel consumption to more sustainable levels.

LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - It's not the first time the 145-year-old London Metal Exchange (LME) has found itself in crisis. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterMarch brought Nickel Crisis II, a much scarier update of the original, and now we have the unfolding Russian Metal Crisis. It's perilous legal territory and would have a significant impact on LME price and physical premiums. Meanwhile, CME's (CME.O) cobalt contract has steadily built up liquidity since its end-2020 launch even as activity in the LME's contract has steadily dwindled. Disgruntled funds have already voted with their feet, the collective departure causing LME trading volumes to slide by 6% over the first nine months of this year.

"East of Suez is sending everything they can ship... it's just a question of how much China exports in November," a Europe-based trader said. Exports from India and the Middle East for October to northwest Europe were at around 480,000 tonnes and 834,000 tonnes respectively, compared with 361,000 tonnes and 511,310 tonnes a month ago, the data showed. The trader estimated that Europe may import about 3 million tonnes (750,000-850,000 barrels per day) from east of Suez in November, of which the Middle East could account for two-third of the volume. Traders expect the bulk of supplies to Europe to come from India and the Middle East, on shorter shipping times. Already soaring diesel prices in the United States have led traders to divert several cargoes heading from the Middle East to Europe to the New York harbour area, further constraining supplies in Europe.

ShFE stocks, bonded warehouse stocks and Yangshan premiumSHANGHAI SQUEEZEThe ShFE copper contract has been characterised by low inventory and rolling tightness for some time. It is probable that troubled trade house Maike Group is also somehow in the Shanghai copper cocktail right now. LONDON'S RUSSIAN DILEMMAChina's strong call on copper is being felt in London, where falling LME stocks have rekindled time-spread volatility. The micro-macro divergence looks set to accentuate as LME stocks are stripped for shipment to China. Over 60% of LME copper stocks at the end of September were Russian metal.

EU distillate inventories were just 360 million barrels at the end of September, the lowest seasonal level since 2004. The global petroleum and refining system has proved unable to keep up with rapid growth in fuel consumption as a result of the manufacturing and freight-led recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. In any event, accelerating refinery processing will simply push the shortage upstream from the fuel market to the crude market. But with spare capacity almost exhausted, a recession is the most likely route to rebalancing the distillate market in particular and the petroleum market in general. Related columns:- OPEC+ risks overtightening the oil market (Reuters, Oct. 12).

Chartbook: Europe gas prices and storageMAXIMUM STORAGEInventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom (EU28) have climbed to 1,029 terawatt-hours (TWh), according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks are +110 TWh (+12% or +1.0 standard deviations) above the seasonal average for the previous ten years ("Aggregated gas storage inventory", GIE, Oct. 13). STILL NOT ENOUGHThe combination of falling nearby prices with firming prices later in the winter and the rest of 2023 highlights the limitations of Europe's storage system. In that case, the market will still need much higher prices or some form of physical rationing to conserve stocks later in the winter. Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)- Europe tops up gas stocks, but winter demand cuts essential (Reuters, Sept. 7)- EU prepares public opinion for winter gas siege (Reuters, July 27)- Europe forced to pay even higher prices to fill gas storage (Reuters, July 5)- Europe fills gas storage at record rate as Asia's buyers step aside (Reuters, May 17)- Europe makes rapid start on refilling gas storage (Reuters, May 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

In trying to keep inventories low through the cycle, OPEC+ risks worsening any global recession, and overtightening the market during the next upturn. Chartbook: Global petroleum inventoriesSEVERELY DEPLETED INVENTORIESThe extreme backwardation in Brent futures prices is a symptom global petroleum inventories have become uncomfortably low. BALANCING RISKS AMID UNCERTAINTYWhen spare capacity and inventories are both low, the volatility-reducing course is to put whatever spare capacity there is into production immediately to accumulate inventories pre-emptively. But the timing, duration and depth of the next downturn remains uncertain as does any reduction in oil consumption, either in absolute terms or relative to trend. Related columns:- OPEC+ cut draws hedge funds back into the oil market (Reuters, Oct. 10)- Oil investors ready for recession (Reuters, Oct 3)- Recession will be necessary to rebalance the oil market (Reuters, Sept. 22)- Oil prices and financial markets brace for recession (Reuters, Sept. 15)- John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Indonesian nickel production by mine and productPOWERING UPIndonesia's nickel boom reflects both the country's rich mineral resources and the government's drive to push miners down the value-add processing chain. China's imports of nickel by product 2020-2022PRICING DOWNThis Indonesian supply surge was widely expected, but its exact timing was fuzzy given the number of new processing routes being used to convert ore to battery nickel. The combination of European demand shock, Indonesian production burst and the closing of the processing gap between stainless and battery nickel means there "is close to 30% downside for the nickel price into year-end". This mismatch of market-place and market is one of the reasons the LME nickel contract melted down in March. Macquarie Bank now provides three different nickel price forecasts for LME refined metal, Chinese nickel pig iron and Chinese nickel sulphate.

REUTERS/Kham/File PhotoLONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - While the rest of the world worries about recession, China is steadily increasing its imports of physical copper. The country's net call on refined copper from the rest of the world was up by 9.8% in the first eight months of the year. China's imports of copper scrapSCRAP AND CONCENTRATES IMPORTS UPThe restocking momentum is also travelling down copper raw materials import channels. GREEN DEMAND DRIVERChina's copper import hunger appears unsated. The sign-posting of more government investment in decarbonisation is a major reason for China's copper buyers to feel confident about restocking physical units at current price levels.

LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses saw 11,200 tonnes of copper arrivals on Tuesday, the largest single-day warranting since June. LME inventory remains ultra-low by any historical yardstick, representing just two days' worth of global usage. At their peak of 175,000 tonnes in February last year they dwarfed registered LME copper inventory of 74,000 tonnes. Registered exchange stocks combined with LME shadow and INE bonded stocks represent the total statistically verifiable copper inventory landscape. Global Copper stocks, including LME Shadow and INE bonded...WHAT YOU CAN'T SEEThere is obviously more copper "out there" in the statistical dark.

Natural gas flares off at a production facility owned by Exxon near Carlsbad, New Mexico, U.S. February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick OxfordLONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. shale drillers are struggling to meet strong demand for gas from domestic generators as well as customers in Europe and Asia scrambling for replacement supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. generators are burning record volumes of gas because coal-fired units have been retired and drought has limited hydroelectric output in the western states. At the same time, exports are running at record rates as new LNG liquefaction terminals meet soaring demand from importers in Europe and Asia. Even so, hedge funds and other money managers have become progressively less bullish and even slightly bearish on gas prices since April.

REUTERS/Alexandre MeneghiniLONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The puzzle facing the zinc market is whether demand or supply will fall hardest this year. LME zinc fund net positioningLOW STOCKSThe outright price is falling despite low exchange inventory. Fastmarkets assessments of Antwerp and Italy premiumsSUPPLY HITEurope is at the epicentre of the global zinc supply hit as smelters struggle to cope with soaring power prices. SHIFTING BALANCEZinc's micro dynamics are shifting fast and at the moment it seems that the demand hit is outpacing the supply hit. It's the demand outlook that's weighing on the outright zinc price.

☆ Oil stocks are acting like the top is in for one-time hottest trade of 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-04 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

But Energy stocks are acting like this may be the top. Lately, traders have been selling off oil stocks under the theory that profits in 2023 will likely be lower than 2022, not higher. The reason: the primary determinant of oil company profits are oil prices, and estimates for oil are coming down. For much of 2022, oil has been in "backwardation": futures prices for the most immediate contracts have been higher than prices farther out. Bulls are cheering the drop in Energy No one cheering for stocks to rally are crying over the drop in oil, or the drop in oil stocks.

The solution: The best investors do both — maintain a long view while also focusing on the shorter term. For the sake of this exercise, let's consider one end of the barbell to be the "long-term view," and on the other the "short-term focus." Long-term view stocks First the long-term view: These stocks will be the more passively managed names and identifying them is what will free us up to focus on those that require more active management. As a result, the long-term view beats the near-term dynamics. With the earnings serving to confirm our long-term view, we took a shot at around the $2,600 level — $2,628.56 to be exact.

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