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Western officials think Ukraine misallocated its counteroffensive resources, The New York Times reported. Defense strategists want Ukraine to focus its efforts on pushing toward the south. But a southern push could result in troop and equipment losses, the outlet reported. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. But Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general and former commander of US Army Europe, cautioned against counting Ukraine out too soon.
Persons: Ben Hodges, Hodges, Mark, Ukraine's Organizations: New York Times, Defense, Service, US Army, Ukrainian, Times, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Crimea materializes Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Crimea, Bakhmut, Zaporizhzhia, US Army Europe
Despite solid economic data, some Wall Street strategists are sticking with their gloomy outlook for the economy and stocks. But don't count out a decline just yet: "People give up on recession just as it arrives." Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Société GénéraleEdwards isn't the only bear on Wall Street. And as Edwards highlighted, a decline in profits usually leads to an uptick in layoffs, which could ultimately hurl this economy into a recession.
Persons: Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, Société Générale Edwards, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Service, Survey, Loan, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
U.S. stocks have made big gains this year, but the performance across global stocks has been uneven so far. So where will global stocks go in the second half of the year? Five of the strategists polled expect global markets to fall, while another five say the stocks will beat their U.S. counterparts. Global market bulls Those who expect global stocks to beat the U.S. are most bullish on the U.K., Europe and Japan. Global market bears Andreas Bruckner, European equity strategist at BofA Global Research, predicts that Europe's Stoxx 600 will end the year at 390 — a nearly 15% decline from Monday's close.
Persons: Christian Abuide, Karim Chedid, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Andreas Bruckner, Mark Haefele, Bruckner, Roger Lee, Lee, Haefele, Carrier Organizations: CNBC Pro, U.S, Lombard, iShares, BofA Global Research, UBS Global Wealth, Nasdaq, UBS, RBC Wealth Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe
Stock markets could suffer if the United States economy sidesteps a recession that many believe is just around the corner, according to Investec equities strategist Roger Lee. Lee said the market is bracing itself for a recession within the next year, a prediction he called the "most widely forecast recession in history." Paradoxically therefore, the greatest risk to U.S. markets is if the recession risk recedes. The implications of this could potentially lead to a downturn in both equities and bond markets, according to the strategist. "Paradoxically therefore, the greatest risk to U.S. markets is if the recession risk recedes," Lee added.
Persons: Roger Lee, Lee, Investec's Lee, , treasuries, it's, Jeff Cox Organizations: HSBC, CNBC, Dow Jones, Treasury Locations: United States, U.S, London, America
Here are the meanings of the least-found words that were used in (mostly) recent Times articles. Literally, in Amleth’s case, as he hacks, stabs and cudgels his way over ramparts and through muddy dooryards and alleyways. — ‘The Northman’ Review: Danish Premodern (April 21, 2022)7. vanillin — the main part of vanilla extract:The treat is so beloved that Somerville is home to an annual What the Fluff? festival, where tens of thousands of people celebrate every possible use of the concoction, a mixture of corn syrup, sugar, egg white and vanillin. — In ‘Mandela: The Lost Tapes,’ a Veteran Journalist Finds Himself (Nov. 30, 2022)And the list of the week’s easiest words:
Persons: plena, — Bush, villanelle, Adam Giannelli’s paean, Proust, lollop —, palapa, appellee, Marshall, dooryard —, , Eggers —, vanillin, Somerville, napoleon, paean, Stewart, Mr, Gutfeld, paeans, Stengel, ‘ Mandela, Organizations: Scottish Highlands, Junior, Fox, Fox News, Locations: Puerto Rican, Mexico, Russia, Englanders, New York, Breton
Spending on bargain Chinese shopping app Temu surpassed Shein in May, according to Bloomberg data. Consumer spending on Chinese apps is still only a fraction of spending on Amazon. Chinese e-commerce giants Shein and Temu are going head-to-head in a race to become America's most-beloved online shopping destination. Just in May, US spending on Temu was 20% higher than on Shein, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. According to data from Bloomberg Second Measure, which analyzes credit and debit transactions data, spending on Shein and Temu is still just a fraction of Amazon.
Persons: Temu, Shein Organizations: Bloomberg, US, China Economic, Security Locations: Shein
Amazon is in talks with several wireless carriers about launching a mobile service for Prime members, according to a report from Bloomberg. The e-retailer is negotiating with Verizon, T-Mobile and Dish about the possibility of reselling their mobile services to its Prime members at low cost or potentially free, Bloomberg reported. Launched in 2005, Amazon Prime members pay $139 a year for access to free two-day shipping, access to exclusive movies and TV shows, as well as newer benefits like generic prescription discounts and Grubhub delivery perks. By partnering up with a company like Verizon or Dish, Amazon would essentially function as a mobile virtual network operator. Instead of owning its own wireless network, the company would purchase data from a large carrier and resell it to consumers.
Persons: Bradley Mattinger Organizations: Bloomberg, Verizon, Mobile, Dish, Amazon, CNBC, Walmart
MANCHESTER, England — All that remains, now, is to fill in the final few administrative details. Manchester City may not need to kick another ball to claim the Premier League title for the third time in three seasons, should its last rival standing, Arsenal, slump to defeat at Nottingham Forest on Saturday. Failing that, a single victory in City’s final three games should do it. Everything changed, he has said, with an impromptu meeting in the aftermath of a February draw with Nottingham Forest. That was the moment, the Manchester City manager either believes or wants to believe, that his players buckled down, took control, and bent the Premier League to their will.
In an often brutal and bleak world, the recent resurgence of Wrexham, the city as well as the soccer club, lifts the soul. The Turf pub is a must-see for Wrexham fans. But now, there’s Wrexham with a story that, in hindsight, feels as if it was just waiting for Hollywood. One of Wrexham city center's shopping areas, pictured on April 22. Wrexham fans celebrate on the pitch after their team beat Boreham Wood at the Racecourse Ground.
Market veteran Howard Marks is sounding the alarm on commercial real estate, with an anticipated wave of mortgage defaults set to add stress to the financial system. The longtime investor called commercial real estate loans "one of the biggest worries" U.S. banks face today in the face of higher interest rates and a looming recession. "Higher interest rates call for higher demanded capitalization rates, which will cause most real estate prices to fall," Marks said. To be sure, Marks said he's not sure if banks will suffer losses on their commercial real estate loans, or what the magnitude will be. "Mortgage defaults generally don't signal the end of the story, but rather the beginning of negotiations between lenders and landlords," Marks said.
Moscow-based Kaspersky Lab has denied that it works with Russia or any government to facilitate cyber espionage. WASHINGTON—President Biden’s Commerce Department is weighing an enforcement action under its online-security rules against Kaspersky Lab, a Russian cybersecurity company that has long faced accusations of posing a threat to the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter. The action—if it materializes—could become a test case for the Commerce Department’s growing role in policing threats online, according to some of the people, who said the U.S. might deploy the same online-security rules against Chinese-controlled technologies, possibly including TikTok.
Growth stocks have excelled so far in 2023 as inflation and interest rate expectations decline. Goldman Sachs shared 32 high-quality growth stocks that have attractive valuations. Goldman SachsLower bond yields have pushed investors seeking returns back towards growth stocks, which has been a key reason for their strong outperformance year-to-date, according to Goldman Sachs. Stick to high-quality growth in this backdropHowever, the rising tide isn't lifting all growth stocks equally. Goldman Sachs"We recommend investors own high-margin growth stocks and avoid low-margin growth stocks, given the current resilient economic growth pricing within equity markets but pessimistic pricing in rates markets," Hammond wrote.
Financial regulators are discussing two different facilities to manage the fallout from the closure of Silicon Valley Bank if no buyer materializes, according to a source close to the situation. One way that the regulators would step in would be to create a backstop for uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, using an authority from the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, according to the source. The move would also touch the systemic risk exception that allows the Fed to take extraordinary action to stem contagion fears. Regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, marking the largest U.S. bank failure since 2008. The Fed and FDIC will present these proposals to the Treasury before any action is taken.
Actually, the Press Was Not All Bad on Collusion
  + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Holman W. Jenkins | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
As this column has noted more than once, Hillary Clinton made good use of Donald Trump’s business history in Russia, his foolish camaraderie with Vladimir Putin, suspicions that he was the Kremlin’s favorite. Likewise, hardly unrealistic were FBI fears of Russian influence given a Trump campaign “full of naive, inexperienced and unvetted individuals,” as I put it in 2017. If an investigation was opened on a thin basis, as we later learned, so what? Such investigations are meant to proceed confidentially. They are presumably dropped without harm to innocents if nothing materializes.
Lumber futures soared 13% on Friday as the housing market finally shows some signs of life. The essential building commodity is up 21% since encouraging housing market data was released earlier this week, and is up 37% year-to-date. Lumber had been pummeled throughout 2022, falling 67% as soaring mortgage rates weighed on the housing market considerably. And that decline in mortgage rates has helped breathe some life into the housing market, with mortgage application volume jumping 7% last week. While we do expect a near-term slowdown in housing (a primary driver of lumber demand), in our opinion long-term fundamentals remain strong for housing demand," Domain's Scott Reaves told Insider in an email.
Despite the recent rally, few believe the downturn in tech has bottomed — but Morgan Stanley believes investors should not sit on the sidelines. Stay invested even if a recession strikes Morgan Stanley believes investors should continue to selectively own Asia tech names even if a widely anticipated recession materializes, given the sector's historical resilience. Stock picks Morgan Stanley recommends investing in commodity and consumer cyclical companies "that will likely be first to come out of the downturn." Morgan Stanley also likes Samsung Electronics on the back of its market share gains, dividend support and potential for growth through M & A. Morgan Stanley has a price target of 700 Taiwan dollars ($23.10) on TSMC, which implies an upside of around 40%.
My three favorites were the Hyundai Ioniq 5, Rivian R1S, and Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo. The Hyundai Ioniq 5The 2022 Hyundai Ioniq 5 Limited AWD. The Porsche Taycan Cross TurismoThe 2022 Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Turbo S. Tim Levin/InsiderThe Taycan Cross Turismo is Porsche's totally badass electric station wagon. The Taycan Cross Turismo showed me why the German brand has been the poster child of impeccable driving dynamics for decades. The Taycan Cross Turismo starts at $97,700, $11,000 more than the regular Taycan sedan.
Not everyone agrees the global economy is heading for a recession. Excluding the global financial crisis and the worst stage of the pandemic, that would be the weakest year for the world economy since 2001. Whether a global recession materializes may come down to three factors: what central banks do next, the consequences of China’s nascent reopening and energy prices. What a global recession meansWhether the world falls into recession or not, the next 12 months are likely to be difficult. Even if a global recession is averted, many countries could still endure downturns accompanied by painful rises in unemployment, though economists don’t agree on how severe and long they might last.
For the past three cycles, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, a leadership post, had been elected by rank-and-file Democrats. But members recently voted to reinstate a rule that gives the party’s leader the power to select the chair, putting the decision in Jeffries’ hands. House Republicans last month elected Richard Hudson of North Carolina as their campaign chief for the 2024 cycle. We went 35-4 in the front-line races.”But several Democrats think a different approach is needed, and they are urging Jeffries to look outside the Democratic Caucus. “It should be someone who can really campaign well, who is familiar with the process and dynamics of the House.
Goldman Sachs expects stocks to be flat in 2023 as growth weakens and interest rates stay high. Stocks have been crushed this year, and Goldman Sachs doesn't see a rebound on the horizon. In fact, the firm is calling for flat returns in the next year as earnings growth weakens. Additionally, rising real yields mean that bonds are now a legitimate alternative to stocks, which has catalyzed a "major valuation reset" for stocks, Mueller-Glissmann wrote. Even if interest rates peak, Goldman Sachs economists don't expect the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates until 2024.
Higher interest rates aren't that big a deal, Ahmed Seirafi, a real-estate investor, said. Seirafi said he believed housing prices would fall in the next six months. Rising interest rates have spooked would-be real-estate investors, bringing down home prices and cooling the red-hot housing market. Even though decades-high inflation is finally showing signs of moderation, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to start cutting interest rates in the immediate future. Housing prices are due for a correctionBecause Seirafi doesn't take rising interest rates into too much consideration, he's not that worried about a dearth of investment opportunities.
The stock market won't see a sustained rally until the Fed starts to cut interest rates, JPMorgan said. The Fed will need to see a combination of three things to start cutting interest rates, according to JPMorgan. Instead, the Fed needs to cut interest rates for the stock market to mount a sustained rally that could give way to new highs. And a resilient economy means the likelihood of interest rate cuts is far off, according to JPMorgan. Until then, investors shouldn't put too much stock in a stock market rally unless the Fed gives signs that it's going to pivot away from tightening and towards easing financial conditions.
[1/2] A for sale sign is displayed outside a home in Toronto, Ontario in Toronto, Ontario, Canada December 13, 2021. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File PhotoOTTAWA, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Canada's housing market has gone cold, with buyers sidelined by soaring borrowing costs and sellers holding off listing in hopes of a spring rally, while higher interest rates mean prices need to fall more before any rebound materializes, experts say. "We do have quite a bit of fundamental demand still out there ... but the market just can't clear at current prices because of where interest rates have gone," said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Variable rate mortgages - home loans in which the interest rate fluctuates based on market conditions - have more than tripled since March, with strict stress tests making qualification even tougher. "If investors aren't interested in buying condos, the whole market starts to slow down," he said.
Acts of stochastic terrorism appear to be on the rise, according to extremism experts. The "lone-wolf" nature of the assault in conjunction with the suspect's stated motivation suggests the incident could be an example of stochastic terrorism, according to extremism experts. While stochastic terrorism is not a new phenomenon, its stark prevalence in global society at the moment is a more recent development, he added. "It's quite mainstream," Spaaij said, of stochastic terrorism. But what makes the violence stochastic, he added, is "we don't know where or when."
Equity access: Here's one hedge fund strategy in ETF form
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Hedge fund strategies utilize a range of approaches to maximize returns on market swings. New York-based firm Dynamic Beta investments runs the iMGP DBi Hedge Strategy ETF (DBEH) in the U.S. The fund uses futures contracts to model the performance of 40 equity long/short hedge funds to deliver equity-like returns over time. While the fund emulates hedge fund strategies, it operates index-based futures contracts rather than individual stocks. "We're trying to give you the building blocks where you can say, 'I want this much in this strategy, I want that much in that strategy.'
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