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☆ Fed’s Jerome Powell Signals Extended Pause in Interest Rate Rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Fed released its summary of economic projections at the latest FOMC meeting. What does it say about the current state of the economy and what will policy makers do next? Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg NewsFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that he is pleased with inflation’s decline this summer and that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates again unless it sees clear evidence that stronger economic activity jeopardizes such progress. “Given the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the committee is proceeding carefully,” Powell said in prepared remarks for a Thursday lunchtime address in New York. “Incoming data over recent months show ongoing progress toward both” of the Fed’s goals to maintain stable inflation and strong employment.

Persons: Al Drago, Jerome Powell, ” Powell Organizations: Fed, Bloomberg Locations: New York

☆ Health Inflation’s Big Hike This Year, in Charts
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Anna Wilde Mathews | Josh Ulick | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Average annual contributions to premiums For single coverage For family coverage $23,968 total $25,000 $25,000 Worker contribution Employer contribution 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 $6,575 worker share $8,435 total 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 $1,401 worker share 0 0 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 2000 '10 '20 Average annual contributions to premiums For single coverage For family coverage $23,968 total $25,000 $25,000 Worker contribution Employer contribution 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 $6,575 worker share $8,435 total 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 $1,401 worker share 0 0 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 2000 '10 '20 Average annual contributions to premiums Worker contribution Employer contribution For single coverage $8,435 total $10,000 5,000 $1,401 worker share 0 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 For family coverage $23,968 total $25,000 20,000 15,000 $6,575 worker share 10,000 5,000 0 2000 '10 '20 Average annual contributions to premiums Worker contribution Employer contribution For single coverage $8,435 total $10,000 5,000 $1,401 worker share 0 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 For family coverage $23,968 total $25,000 20,000 15,000 $6,575 worker share 10,000 5,000 0 2000 '10 '20Inflation came for your healthcare this year. Next year is looking to be just as bad. The cost of employer health insurance rose this year at the fastest clip since 2011, according to an annual survey from KFF, a healthcare research nonprofit. The 7% jump in the cost of a family plan brought the average tab to nearly $24,000—more than the price for some small cars.

Locations: KFF

☆ US wholesale inflation heated up last month amid higher gas prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —Wholesale price increases of US goods and services jumped higher for a third consecutive month, influenced by still-high energy prices, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. September’s overall increase was driven by a 0.9% gain in goods prices due to higher energy prices and food prices, BLS data shows. Gas prices hit new yearly highs in September, as oil prices pushed past $92 a barrel amid supply cuts and catastrophic flooding in Libya. The higher gas prices seen in August and September may filter through to some products and services but shouldn’t ultimately keep inflation higher in the months to come, said Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services’ senior economic adviser. However, the Israel and Hamas war in the Middle East does add volatility to energy prices, he said.

Persons: Price, ”, Gregory Daco, Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, shouldn’t, Stuart Hoffman, ” Hoffman Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, PPI, PNC Financial Services Locations: Minneapolis, August’s, Libya, Israel

☆ A report that foreshadows CPI is a mix of good and bad
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

At its peak in June 2022, prices rose at a 9.1% annualized pace. But that was the second straight month inflation accelerated after slowing for 13 consecutive months. If the third time is the charm, prepare to be charmed when Thursday’s CPI report for September is released at 8:30 am ET. Economists expect the annual inflation rate to ease slightly to 3.6%, according to consensus estimates from Refinitiv. The central bank’s goal is 2% annual inflation.

Persons: CNN Business ’, CNN —, you’re, ”, Price, Alicia Wallace, “, that’s Organizations: CNN Business, CNN, PPI, Federal Locations: Refinitiv, Libya

☆ Most Fed officials expect one more interest rate hike and that they'll remain elevated for a while, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —Most Federal Reserve officials said last month that they expect one more rate hike, according to minutes from their September policy meeting released Wednesday. Some officials said that how fast inflation cools in the coming months will determine how long rates remain elevated. Inflation’s steady descent over the past year, and the job market’s gradual cooldown, gave officials enough reassurance to pause, the minutes showed. The central bank’s latest set of economic projections also showed that most Fed officials expect fewer rate cuts next year, confirming investors’ fears that rates could remain higher for longer. It’s unclear how much higher yields will weigh on economic activity, but several Fed officials have said in public remarks this week that it could mean less action from the Fed.

Persons: ’, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, ”, Lorie Logan, Mack Trucks Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Treasury, ” Dallas, Employers, Labor Department, United Auto Workers, UAW Locations: Washington

☆ The Fed is at odds with itself. That’s a feature, not a bug
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.

Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, ”, Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens

☆ US economy added 336,000 jobs last month, almost twice what was expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The US economy added an estimated 336,000 jobs last month, blowing expectations out of the water, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. In September, leisure and hospitality helped drive job growth higher, with 96,000 jobs added. Today’s headline jobs number — that surprising 336,000 net job gain — is an initial estimate that will be revised twice more. The surprising September jobs report, however, didn’t continue that streak. August’s second look has job growth now at 227,000 for the month, an increase of 40,000.

Persons: ”, Sung, Soh, Joe Biden, “, it’s, ” Biden, Andrew Patterson, ” Patterson, they’ve, Jim McCoy, we’re, ” Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor’s, ” Julia Pollak, didn’t, ” Diane Swonk, — CNN’s Tami Luhby Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, of Labor Statistics, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, BLS, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Vanguard, Fed, Administration, Children, Families, Nationwide, Century, CNN Locations: Minneapolis, United States

☆ Government shutdown would leave the Fed flying blind
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —In the event of a US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will stop releasing data, including key figures on inflation and unemployment. A lack of crucial government data would make it difficult for investors and the Federal Reserve to interpret the US economy. “By the time the Fed discovered its mistake, the effects of excessive monetary tightening could be difficult to reverse,” she said. It’s unclear whether the Fed would hold rates steady in the absence of government data or how it would navigate a government shutdown when deliberating monetary policy. The effects of a government shutdown also depend on how long it lasts, which also isn’t clear at this point.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, acquiesce, Greg Daco, ”, Agron Nicaj, Price, Julia Pollak Organizations: DC CNN, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BLS, Republicans, “, MUFG, Labor, Survey, ZipRecruiter, Fed Locations: Washington, EY, United States, —

☆ August Inflation Report Overall Prices Set to Pop, But Details Should Look Better
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

PinnedMany economists think that a cooling job market, with slower pay gains, could pave the way for slower price increases. A recent jump in gas prices probably helped to speed up overall inflation in August, but economists expected a key underlying price measure to grow at a muted pace. Fed officials will closely parse this report, because it is the final major piece of economic data before their Sept. 19-20 monetary policy meeting. Fed officials must decide in coming months whether they need to raise rates again in 2023, and what would merit such a move. The central bank will receive one more Consumer Price Index inflation report before its November gathering, on Oct. 12.

Persons: John C, Williams, Jerome H, Powell, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ US consumer prices continued to rise last month — but the Fed probably won’t raise rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

However, core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, continued to slow, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday. On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.6% in August, compared with a 0.2% gain in July. Monthly core inflation rose by 0.3% in August, picking up significantly for the first time since February. The CPI’s gasoline index jumped 10.6% in August from the prior month, up sharply from the 0.2% gain in July. Gasoline prices are highly visible indicators of inflation, so more pain at the pump could also weigh on US consumers’ moods.

Persons: Sarah House Organizations: DC CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal, AAA, CNN Locations: Washington, OPEC, Libya, Wells

☆ The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, ”, Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia

☆ The Fed's next move after raising rates to fight inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some investors are betting on rate cuts as soon as early next year, perhaps on expectations that the economy might soon deteriorate. If unemployment spikes because of higher interest rates, for example, the Fed would likely cut rates to stem job losses under its mandate of maximum employment. The Fed’s tough talk has rattled the bond market, helping push up long-dated yields. In addition to the possibility of cutting rates because of an economic downturn, the Fed could also cut rates if inflation slows too much. “If the Fed sees that inflation goes below the 2% target, they could start decreasing interest rates, but I don’t think they are going to start decreasing interest rates until that happens,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James.

Persons: there’s, Rather, Austan Goolsbee, Mike Hackett, they’ve, ”, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Melissa Brown, China’s ‘ Lehman, Laura, Mengchen Zhang, Technology —, Zhongrong, Read, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Kansas City Fed’s, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Treasury, Nationwide, CNN, Fed, Service, KBC Corporation, Xianheng, Science, Technology, National Association of Realtors, Body, Nvidia, Kansas City, Global, US Commerce Department, Labor Department, Central Bank Locations: Washington, “, China, BJ’s, Abercrombie, Kansas

☆ The dog days of summer are boom days for divorce filings. But the economy is making it tough.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( Alexandra Peers | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —The dog days of summer are boom times for divorce filings. You can’t quite inflation-proof your divorce, they noted, but there are steps to take to blunt the economy’s impact on it. ljubaphoto/E+/Getty ImagesIf you refinance, you’ll also have to qualify for a new loan based on one income. Also, divorce attorneys stress, expect the strains and time-consuming duties of divorce to, at least temporarily, trim gig income. “I have clients who have put off divorce because of the economy,” said Manhattan accountant Marc Albaum.

Persons: Jaime Davis, Brandon Bell, you’ll, Scott Trout, Cordell, Appraising, Sid Bass, Anne, Anne Bass, Edgar Degas, Mark Rothko, Degas, ”, Victor Weiner, hasn’t, “, Marc Albaum, “ One’s, ‘, Covid, That’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Veterans Affairs, Cordell, Appraisers Association of America, Wall, Consumer, CPI Locations: New York, Raleigh , North Carolina, Houston , Texas, Manhattan, Covid

☆ Fed officials are divided, but holding rates steady in September seems likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-13 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve officials meet next month to determine whether to raise interest rates for the 12th time to cool the economy or hold them steady. Some officials think the Fed has already raised its benchmark lending rate enough to curb inflation, but others think it’s too soon to tap the brakes. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker echoed that sentiment in a speech last week, saying “I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady.”Other Fed officials agree. “Inflation is still significantly above” the Fed’s 2% target, Fed governor Michelle Bowman said last week at an event in Atlanta. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July policymaking meeting as well as July figures on industrial production.

Persons: ” Rajeev Sharma, ”, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, “, Raphael Bostic, there’s, Michelle Bowman, ” Carol Schleif, ” Schleif, Katie Lobosco, Brinker Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Key Private Bank, CNN, “, Fed, Financial, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, BMO Family Office, Internal Revenue, Tax Administration, IRS, Kansas City Tax Processing, Fresno Tax Processing, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Depot, US Commerce Department, Target, Federal Reserve, Walmart Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Kansas, Fresno

Asian stocks fell to a one-month low and European indexes were in the red, with the STOXX 600 down 0.8% at 1125 GMT (.STOXX). "We’re still getting a mixed message from the inflation numbers," said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro. The pound was up 0.4% at $1.2725 , after GDP data showed Britain eked out some unexpected growth in the second quarter, helped by a strong June performance. But it remains the only large advanced economy that has not yet regained its pre-COVID late-2019 level, data showed on Friday. Investors will be watching for UK inflation data next Wednesday.

Persons: DAX, Mary Daly, We’re, Ben Laidler, eToro's Laidler, Brent, Elizabeth Howcroft, John Stonestreet, Susan Fenton Organizations: Credit Suisse, Wall, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Investors, Nasdaq, HK, Britain, West Texas, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: Silicon, China, Australia, Japan

☆ Is it time to worry about stagflation?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

CNN —For the past two years, economists have been worrying about the risks of high inflation rates. But far less attention has been given to inflation’s sibling: stagflation. Stagflation is the combination of high inflation and a slowing economy. The current state of stagflation: Last year, then-World Bank President David Malpass warned that stagflation risks were high because of supply chain disruptions stemming from lockdowns in China and bans on Russian oil. What’s happening now: The risk of stagflation varies significantly across different regions of the globe.

Persons: Stagflation, David Malpass, Janet Yellen, ”, Lan Ha, stagflation, Andrew Kenningham, “, That’s, ” Kenningham, ” Ha, Ha, Parija Kavilanz, don’t, Dallin Hatch, Biden, Joe Biden, Trump, Matt Egan, It’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, World Bank, Euromonitor, Capital Economics, Bank of England’s, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Trump Locations: Israel, lockdowns, China, Europe, Germany, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia

☆ US small businesses feel better about the economy, but still can’t find enough skilled workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

As inflation continued to slow last month, optimism improved among the more than 1,300 small businesses surveyed, though it remains subdued compared to pre-pandemic times. Of owners hiring or trying to hire, 92% reported few or no qualified applicants for their available jobs, also unchanged from the prior month. “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions dismal, owners want to hire and make money now from solid consumer spending,” said Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist, in a release. Despite the economy holding steady, optimism among small businesses isn’t back to where it was before the pandemic. Even though businesses are still grappling with difficulties in hiring, cooling inflation has taken some of the edge off.

Persons: ”, Bill Dunkelberg, they’ve Organizations: DC CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Reserve, Gross, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Labor Department, Wall Street Locations: Washington

☆ Americans continue to feel better about inflation and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —US consumers have been feeling a whole lot better this summer as inflation has continued to slow. That’s a huge improvement from June 2022, when consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level on record and inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1%. “However, sentiment for lower-income consumers fell.”Indeed, recent data continue to reflect inflation slowing. Consumer spending is the main engine of the economy, accounting for about two-thirds of output, and much of it hinges on the state of the labor market. The Fed certainly wants to see core inflation continue to decelerate, but Powell routinely points to the labor market not being balanced.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, “, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, EY

☆ US paychecks aren’t growing as quickly. That’s good for the Fed — but not for workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Wages and benefits paid to US workers rose 1% in the second quarter from the prior one, a slightly weaker pace than the 1.2% gain in the first three months of the year. The Employment Cost Index, a comprehensive measure of employers’ compensation costs, advanced 4.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier, a slower pace than the 4.8% rise earlier in the year. Monitoring the tight labor marketThe Fed is closely watching the state of the labor market because of the role that higher labor costs play in pushing up consumer prices. But the job market has cooled in the past several months as job openings declined while the share of people employed or seeking work increased, so some of those dynamics have been slowly unwinding. It remains to be seen whether inflation can drift all the way to 2% without a substantial weakening in the labor market.

Persons: paychecks, Friday’s, ”, Daniel Zhao Organizations: DC CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s Locations: Washington

☆ The US economy grew stronger than expected in the second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Washington CNN —The US economy picked up steam in the second quarter despite punishing rate hikes and still-high inflation, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economic growth in the second quarter was driven by business investment, government purchases, inventory investment and consumer spending, though at a much weaker pace than in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic output, grew at just a 1.6% rate in the second quarter, down sharply from a 4.2% rate in the first three months of the year. Nonresidential business investment rose sharply to a 7.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from a 0.6% rate in the beginning of the year. The GDP report showed that spending on structure slowed to a 9.7% rate in the second quarter from a 15.8% rate in the prior one.

Persons: “, Lydia Boussour, ’, ” Shannon Seery, Seery, —, ”, Diane Swonk, Thursday’s, Carol Schleif, Jerome Powell Organizations: Washington CNN, Commerce Department, Gross, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, Employers, Wells, Investment Bank, Manufacturers, KPMG, restrengthens Investors, BMO Family Office, Investors, “ Locations: EY

☆ What to expect from the Fed’s decision on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. The Commerce Department releases the June reading of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure Friday. The Fed held rates steady for nine straight meetings over the span of a year the last time it paused a rate-hiking campaign in 2006. Nearly all of the Fed’s decisions have been unanimous since the central bank began lifting rates in March 2022, with the exception of two meetings early in the Fed’s current inflation battle.

Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, ”, José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, ”, The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming, —

☆ What to expect from this week’s Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

After the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, investors will be looking for more details around that potential hike. That’s why the Fed is trying to retain the option of another rate increase in case inflation proves to be more resilient than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. Whatever the Fed decides to do won’t come without a vigorous debate, and perhaps even a dissent, though the Fed has a tradition of collegiality.

Persons: —, it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, ”, José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, ”, The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming, —

☆ Business conditions are expected to improve as inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —American businesses are expected to fare better in the coming months, according to a survey of economists and analysts released Monday. A survey from the National Association for Business Economics released Monday showed that businesses have rejoiced in better economic conditions. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents reported that wages at their firms were unchanged — the first time more economists reported no wage gains than rising wages since 2021. The Fed doesn’t necessarily need a recession to do that, but some research suggests the labor market must cool further. The labor market is closely watched by Fed officials since higher labor costs feed into inflation.

Persons: haven’t, ”, Julia Coronado, Austan Goolsbee, cooldown, Brian Moynihan, bode Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, National Association for Business, Employers, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Federation of Independent, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ Retail sales rose in June for third straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —Spending at US retailers rose in June for the third month in a row, in a subdued show of resilience from American consumers. Retail spending, which is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, rose 0.2% in June, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Furniture sales jumped 1.4% in June from the prior month, while spending at department stores fell by 2.4% during the same period. Excluding sales at gasoline stations and on cars and parts, retail sales rose 0.3% in June from May. From a year earlier, overall retail sales rose 1.5% in June, the second-weakest pace since May 2020.

Persons: ”, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, —, Lydia Boussour Organizations: DC CNN, Retail, Commerce Department, ”, Employers, Federal Reserve, ” Fed, Fed Locations: Washington, EY

☆ Despite shakeup at the Fed, a rate hike in September is likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Fed Chair Powell has said the Fed still has more work to do, and he himself hasn’t ruled out back-to-back rate hikes. But he also suggested that the Fed prefers to get rate hikes over with as soon as possible. The Fed is overwhelmingly expected to raise its key federal funds rate later this month after it paused in June after 10 straight rate hikes. If core inflation continues to moderate only slightly, Fed officials might just want to get the second rate hike over with. The FOMC next meets on July 25-26, with an announcement on rate hikes due at 2 p.m.

Persons: Louis, James Bullard, Adriana Kugler, Powell, hasn’t, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, ”, weren’t, Kugler, That’s Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Louis Fed, Market Committee, “, New York University Locations: Washington, April’s

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