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☆ Pound heads for biggest weekly gain in six months
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, June 2 (Reuters) - Sterling headed for its biggest one-week rally against the dollar in six months on Friday, as U.S. interest rates looked increasingly likely to plateau sooner than UK rates. The pound has gained 1.5% against the dollar this week, the most since early December, and nearly 1.1% against the euro - which would be its largest weekly increase in nearly four months. Meanwhile, as UK inflation remains stubbornly high, traders have reassessed the outlook for monetary policy in Britain too. Money markets show markets are pricing for UK rates to peak at 5.32% by year-end, up from 4.50% now. A month ago, the expectation was that UK rates would be around 4.80% by December.

Persons: Sterling, Warren Venketas, Jordan Rochester, Amanda Cooper, Susan Fenton Organizations: NFP, Federal Reserve, Treasury, U.S, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Washington, Britain, Rochester

☆ Analysis: Germany leads big bond rally as inflation finally heads down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.

Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS

☆ Morning Bid: Debt deal is near, Fed peak is not
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors juggled these three strands over the past 24 hours, with top-line equity index relief from the Nvidia-inspired spur to artificial intelligence and chip stocks everywhere. And the banking stress that changed the picture in March appears to be settling too, judging by the latest central bank numbers. Friday brings some hope that White House and congressional leaders can ink a deal on lifting the U.S. debt ceiling they indicated overnight was now close - just before the Treasury Department runs out of cash from June 1 next week. Anxieties in the Treasury bill market only eased a touch, and one-month bill yields remained above 6% early Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Quantitative tightening: What happens when $2 trillion is sucked out of the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“Quantitative tightening,” or QT, by top central banks will suck $2 trillion in liquidity out of the financial system over the next two years, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Ratings. Investors and banks calibrate their strategies to the amount of money in the financial system, he noted. Then, central banks started withdrawing liquidity from the financial system. Even worse, many banks have large holes on their balance sheets because central banks have simultaneously jacked up interest rates. While government debt levels have skyrocketed in recent years, the cost of servicing that debt has been tamped down by the willingness of central banks to buy large chunks of it.

☆ UK draws record 46.4 billion pounds of demand for new inflation-linked bond
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Britain received a record 46.4 billion pounds ($57.9 billion) in demand from investors at the launch of a new inflation-linked government bond which will mature in March 2045, the United Kingdom Debt Management Office said on Wednesday. However the strong demand came at a price, with the 4.5 billion pounds of new gilts paying investors a return of 0.6543% on top of retail price inflation - the greatest real yield for any index-linked gilt sold via syndication since May 2011. The DMO said domestic investors accounted for 93% of the allocations of the bond. The volume of orders is the highest for any index-linked bond issued via syndication by the DMO, although a conventional gilt syndication of green gilts in 2021 had order volumes in excess of 100 billion pounds. The DMO has sold 21.9 billion pounds of gilts out of a target of 237.8 billion pounds for the financial year which started in April.

If it is just a lagged statistical quirk, then the huge disparity in March inflation rates - of some 3-5 percentage points with western peers - should narrow sharply by yearend. With an election due next year, that may prove a big factor in any re-convergence of inflation rates if the cost of that is a much deeper economic downturn that rest. The question about Britain as an inflation outlier re-opens the age-old issue about just how that should be priced into sterling. For much of the past 10 years, G7 inflation rates were largely locked together in either their subdued pre-pandemic state or during the wild price spikes since. If UK inflation turns "idiosyncratic" among its peers during the much-vaunted normalization, then currency markets may need to rethink fundamental long-term assumptions about purchasing power, Gallo reckons.

☆ UK markets shrug off Hunt's budget; bank turmoil in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - British markets, roiled by concerns about European banks after shares in Credit Suisse fell 30%, showed little reaction to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's budget on Wednesday. The pound picked up slightly against the euro as Hunt delivered the budget, in which he said Britain's official forecaster expected the economy to avoid recession this year. The euro fell to a session low of 87.25 pence as Hunt talked. However, the euro had already fallen sharply, with a big drop in European bank stocks spooking investors that were already on edge since the collapse of U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank late last week. Britain's FTSE 100 (.FTSE) stock index was down 3.05%, with financial companies leading the falls.

☆ Exclusive: UK debt agency treads careful path to sell near-record volume of bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced his budget plans earlier on Wednesday, the DMO said it would need to sell 241.1 billion pounds ($291 billion) of government bonds in the 2023/24 financial year - the highest on record apart from 485.8 billion pounds sold in 2020/21. The Bank of England is no longer a buyer in the market, and instead is reducing its own gilt holdings by 80 billion pounds a year. "We can issue larger cash amounts in, for instance, a short-dated auction than in a long- or index-linked auction," Stheeman said. Over the coming year, the DMO aims to sell 86.7 billion pounds of short-dated bonds, 65.3 billion pounds of medium-dated, 50.1 billion pounds of long-dated gilts and 26.2 billion pounds of inflation-linked debt. The medium- and long-dated debt includes 10 billion pounds of 'green' bonds - a volume that is capped by the requirement for the government to designate investment projects which meet certain environmental criteria.

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Finance minister Jeremy Hunt presented less gloomy forecasts for Britain's economy at his Spring Budget on Wednesday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsROSIER OUTLOOKA rout in global banking stocks on Wednesday overshadowed many UK-specific moves. Investments announced by Hunt such as a corporate spending tax break, a boost for defence and extra childcare support were not viewed as particularly inflationary. Unlike in the last budget, noise around windfall taxes on oil and gas companies was muted in the run-up to the budget since energy prices have fallen dramatically since then. "In general, the budget is not the big story for gilts right now, global drivers are in the driving seat," said James Smith, economist at ING.

☆ VIEW UK budget: no recession in 2023; UK assets sink in global market turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Despite continuing global instability, the OBR report today that inflation in the UK will fall from 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023." MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 3%, under pressure from a rout in global bank stocks, while the domestic-focussed midcap index (.FTMC) fell 2.5%. MONEY MARKETS: UK bond yields pared some of their daily declines, with the 10-year yield last down 19 basis points at roughly 3.30%, compared with a session low of 3.289% when Hunt began talking. EDWARD PARK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BROOKS MACDONALD, LONDON:"I would view this very much as a budget for the bond market." "When the dust settles, international investors will be constructive around the type of budget we've had today, which suggests a calmer approach to managing the UK.

Meanwhile, extremely wide forecasts for new public borrowing requirements make the outlook for government bonds uncertain. Here are the main budget predictions for UK stocks, gilts and the pound. However NatWest analysts flagged that the OBR will likely revise down growth forecasts for the next five years, making the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. Hunt will likely keep the budget "reasonably dull" after Truss's "mini-budget" sent sterling to its lowest on record, she added. Investors in UK stocks are already grappling with a wide valuation gap with U.S. equities.

☆ World markets set for aftershocks as SVB collapse ripples out
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - Markets were set for a bumpy ride this week as the fallout from collapsed startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the biggest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, coincides with key economic data and policy meetings. It later recovered most of its losses after Circle, the firm behind it, assured investors it would honour the peg despite exposure to Silicon Valley Bank. SVB could have a domino effect on other U.S. regional banks and beyond. The S&P 500 regional banks index (.SPLRCBNKS) dropped 4.3%, bringing its loss for the week to 18%, its worst week since 2009. UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt's UK budget may be overshadowed by the SVB fallout in Britain.

☆ Take Five: A macro-packed punch for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/ THE PRICE IS RIGHTU.S. inflation data have been pivot points for markets and Tuesday's report will likely be consequential as investors gauge whether the Federal Reserve will return to the jumbo-sized rate hikes that shook markets last year. The European Central Bank has raised rates by 3 percentage points since July to 2.5% and looks set for another half-point increase on Thursday. Austria's central bank chief Robert Holzmann wants half-point rises at each of the next four meetings. Riskier, more fragile emerging markets, especially those with twin deficits, could feel the heaviest punch if the Fed goes all the way to 6%. Emerging markets countries hiking (+) or cutting (-) their policy ratesCompiled by Amanda Cooper; Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayaram and Vincent Flasseur; Edited by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Shares skid, bonds face worst February since 1981 as US rates set to rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The concern now is not so much over global recession, but over the prospect of there being little respite any time soon from higher interest rates. MSCI's All-World index of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) was last roughly steady on the day, but still close to Friday's seven-week low. Since then, a slew of U.S. and euro area economic data has reinforced the view that interest rates will rise further and stay high for longer. U.S. two-year Treasury yields , the most sensitive to shifts in expectations for interest rates, have risen by 60 basis points this month to almost 5%. Fed funds futures are fully pricing in a 25-bps rate rise from the Fed next month, with around a 20% chance of a larger 50-bps hike.

Summary U.S. bonds set for worst month since SeptWild swings at start of year may continueLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - March madness? After a euphoric January was followed by a somber February, with bonds and equities selling off as strong data renewed rate-hike bets, more wild swings could be next for world markets. February fallsData on Friday showing a key inflation U.S. gauge accelerated last month stoked rate hike bets. The ECB lifted its key rate by 300 basis points since last July to 2.5%. If upcoming data weakens, markets could resume their bullishness, Yardeni Research said.

☆ Scottish politics are in turmoil, but it's small fry for the pound
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Any prospect of Scotland breaking away from the United Kingdom used to have momentous implications for U.K. markets. The lack of any discernable reaction in the pound, gilts or London blue-chips to the resignation on Wednesday of pro-independence Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon's resignation showed. "Ten years ago it was a real risk, it was quite close," said Jon Day, global bond portfolio manager at UK-based asset manager Newton Investment Management. Reuters GraphicsThe Scottish independence discourse "doesn't have much of an impact on the pound these days", said George Brown, economist at fund manager Schroders. The U.K. market chaos following former Prime Minister Liz Truss's badly received mini-budget collided with heightened anxiety among investors in general as the U.S. Fed raised interest rates.

☆ Analysis: The deep freeze over UK assets is thawing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"This does suggest a possible inflection point in sentiment towards UK assets," said Nick Kissack, a UK portfolio manager at Schroders, which manages roughly $910 billion of client funds. "We saw extreme levels of risk aversion," in September, he added, while "the risk premium for UK assets has come down since." That, in short, is an outlook of higher global interest rates, weak growth and high inflation. Reuters GraphicsHowever, analysts expect the FTSE 100's rise to falter with a stronger global growth outlook combined with waning energy inflation. "The UK is the standout global economy where growth prospects have not improved," said Baylee Wakefield, multi-asset portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, who expects gilts to continue outperforming Treasuries.

☆ Bank of England misses gilt auction sales target for first time
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The bank's QE gilt holdings now stand at 825 billion pounds, down by 50 billion pounds from their peak in December 2021. In the first three months of 2023 it plans to sell 9.75 billion pounds of short-, medium- and long-dated gilts. Overall, the central bank is seeking to reduce its gilt holdings by 80 billion pounds over 12 months, split roughly equally between outright sales and maturing gilts. Earlier on Thursday, before the auction, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told a panel of lawmakers that he had not seen any evidence of market disturbance from the central bank's QT sales. Under the terms of the its QT auction programme, the BoE has the option of selling less than the amount planned at a particular auction if it receives unattractively low bids.

☆ U.K. Regulators Are Urged to Address Pension Risks After Last Year’s Crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Jennifer Williams-Alvarez | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

It also prompted regulators and policy makers last year to start calling for action to address the risks related to LDI strategies. As the crisis unfolded, U.K. pension funds began rushing to raise cash to satisfy collateral calls triggered by the moves on the government bonds. The committee, which in part scrutinizes the work of government agencies, said regulators failed to sufficiently focus on the risks associated with LDI strategies. This meant that while interest rates were falling, pension funds benefited. There should additionally be stricter limits and reporting on the amount of leverage allowed in LDI funds, the committee chair said.

☆ Former UK PM Liz Truss is blaming the left-wing 'economic establishment' for ousting her
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

British Prime Minister Liz Truss announces her resignation, outside Number 10 Downing Street, London, Britain October 20, 2022. Henry Nicholls | ReutersLONDON — Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss is blaming a "powerful economic establishment" for bringing her chaotic 44-day tenure to an end last year. Truss was elected leader of the Conservative Party in September, defeating her eventual successor Rishi Sunak, after garnering 81,326 votes from party members following the ousting of Boris Johnson. She was acting as if winning a majority of the Conservative Party membership gave her economic credibility, and it most clearly doesn't." Current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government vowed to restore this credibility upon taking over in October, and quickly reversed Truss' entire economic agenda.

☆ Bank of England to toughen up rules for liability-driven funds
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LDI funds have been used by pension schemes to ensure they can meet payouts to pensioners in future years. Yields on the government bonds or "gilts" held by LDI funds rocketed, and the funds struggled to meet urgent collateral calls to cover the fall in bond prices. The Pensions Regulator, which regulates pension schemes, and the Financial Conduct Authority, which regulates managers of LDI funds may have additional requirements, she said. Regulators in Luxembourg and Dublin, where LDI funds are listed, will also have their own requirements. The "complete absence" of data on leverage in LDI funds will also be addressed, she added.

☆ JPMorgan reviews oversight of traders amid boom in financial markets - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Stefania Spezzati | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

KPMG is reviewing JPMorgan’s oversight of traders across the bank's markets division globally, the people said. The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), a measure of market volatility, remains above its pre-pandemic levels. JPMorgan, when asked by Reuters why it had hired KPMG, said: "We invest heavily in our compliance and surveillance systems and often engage third parties to benchmark our capabilities." Under the agreement, which ends this year, the bank committed to enhance its compliance efforts and to report fixes to its oversight, the DoJ said. The volatility in UK government bonds, known as gilts, triggered a flood of compliance alerts from JPMorgan’s traders, one of the sources said.

☆ Euro hits 7-month high, European shares briefly drop after U.S. CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The euro hit a seven-month high, European government bond yields briefly trimmed falls and European shares dipped after data showed an easing in U.S. inflation in December. The euro rose to a more than seven-month high at $1.08155. Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro area, briefly trimmed some of its earlier falls. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) briefly trimmed gains before hitting a new high on the session. And in Britain, government bond futures fell sharply before lurching up and then returning close to to their earlier level.

A majority of the 10 global asset and hedge fund managers surveyed by Reuters said commodities are undervalued and should thrive as global inflation stays elevated in 2023. Preqin said just 915 hedge funds were launched in 2022, the lowest in 10 years. "It's the perfect environment for macro hedge funds: central bank policy divergence, interest rate differentials, geopolitical tension, bottlenecks and each country on its own. Macro hedge funds led the industry performance through November, according to financial data firm HFR, up roughly 8%. Lyons is keen to allot more to macro hedge funds and also thinks there are good opportunities in corporate credit.

☆ Dollar hits one-week high vs yen, drops against pound
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar touched a one-week high against the yen on Wednesday, boosted by a jump in Treasury yields and investor expectations for a rebound in Chinese growth as COVID-19 curbs loosen. Meanwhile, the pound headed towards its largest one-day rise against the dollar in two weeks as Britain's markets reopened after a long weekend. That day, the yen staged its biggest one-day rally against the dollar in 24 years, closing 3.8% higher, as traders speculated about an eventual unwinding of stimulus. The dollar was up 0.2% against the Japanese yen at 133.785. The Australian dollar rose 1% against its U.S. namesake to $0.680, while the New Zealand dollar strengthened by 1.1% to $0.634.

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