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☆ The US economy is slowing down. Just look at the freight recession that's sent diesel prices tumbling.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US is seeing a "freight recession," meaning fewer trucks delivering goods across the country. The slowdown in deliveries comes as diesel prices have dropped by roughly half since last year. The American Trucking Association's truck tonnage index dropped to the lowest since August 2021. Wholesale diesel prices in New York Harbor tumbled to $2.65 a gallon from $5.34 last May, per the Journal. And in an earnings call last week, JB Hunt executives sounded the alarm on a "freight recession" as the shipping company missed earnings views and reported across-the-board drops in volumes that sent revenue per truckload down by 17%.

☆ Workers in the US now want at least $76,000 to start a new job as minimum wage expectations continue to rise in a red-hot job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nidhi Pandurangi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Employees' wage expectations have risen to $76,000 a year, according to a New York Fed survey. The rise in expected salary levels comes at a time of historically low unemployment rates in America. Those with a college degree raised their reservation wage expectations by about $5,000 to over $97,000. The rise in expected salary levels makes sense, as it comes at a time of historically low unemployment rates in America. This, in turn, leads to employees upping their salary expectations to combat inflation's erosive effects.

☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

☆ There's no clear sign of a US credit crunch yet, a top Fed official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's no clear signs of a US credit crunch yet, according to Fed official John Williams. We haven't seen any clear signs yet of credit conditions tightening and we don't know how big those effects will be," he said. The collapse of SVB and Signature Bank has stoked fears that lending standards to obtain a loan will become harder. We haven't seen any clear signs yet of credit conditions tightening and we don't know how big those effects will be," he added at a New York University event Monday. Other commentators have blamed the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes as a key factor in the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank.

☆ NY Fed report shows near-term inflation expectations retreating sharply
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the expected level of inflation three years from now held steady at 2.7%, matching the level last seen in October 2020, while expected inflation five years from now was seen hitting 2.6%, up from January's 2.5%. The New York Fed survey arrived just ahead of the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting. The New York Fed report was conducted ahead of the SVB situation and does not reflect its impact. Households last month saw declining price pressures for gasoline, food, rent, medical care and college. But the New York Fed noted that last month's reading remains well below the 12-month average of an expected 3.4% rise in home prices.

☆ Millennials in their 30s are sitting in an economic quagmire that could stick with them through retirement
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Jason Lalljee | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In the long run, this generation may also be hit by cuts in Social Security benefits. In the longer run, millennials' retirement may also be affected if Social Security benefits are cut. Millennials in their 30s are accruing debt faster than their peersWhile Experian and Credit Karma research show Gen X has the highest average debt, millennials still hold a lot of debt too — and are accumulating it faster than anyone else. Millennials face looming retirement insecurityIf all of that wasn't enough, millennials' retirement situation in the future could be different from Gen X and baby boomers. Additionally, millennials' retirement safety nets are likely to be affected if they can't get full Social Security benefits.

☆ The 7 best college majors to choose if you want to make a lot of money in your first job — and no surprise, they're are all in STEM
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Marielle Descalsota | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The highest-earning graduates majored in engineering and science, and earned a median salary of at least $70,000, according to an analysis by the New York Federal Reserve. STEM graduates typically earn more than their liberal arts counterparts. Nitat Termmee/Getty ImagesThe New York Federal Reserve collated data on how much recent college graduates earned, between the ages of 22 to 27 in 2021. The New York Federal Reserve found the seven highest-paying majors were in the STEM industries, specifically engineering and science majors. Out of the seven best-earning majors, six were in engineering fields, while one was in science.

☆ As emergency savings drop and credit card debt rises, an 'ugly stew is brewing,' warns advocate
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Valentinrussanov | E+ | Getty ImagesHigh inflation is leading to reduced savings and higher credit card debt — and there are some signs households may be reaching a tipping point under increased financial pressures. A new survey from Bankrate finds 39% of individuals surveyed in January said their emergency savings are less than they were last year. Still, slightly more than half of respondents — 51% — said they have more emergency savings than credit card debt. The remaining 13% have no credit card debt nor any emergency savings. Bankrate's survey found 45% of millennials, 44% of Gen Xers and 38% of Gen Zers have more credit card debt than money in savings.

☆ Reddit-loving retail investors are making their chaotic presence felt again - and their risky behavior is fueling a stock rally that doesn't look sustainable
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bullish sentiment has returned in a big way among retail investors as they've started the year piling record amounts into stocks. Speculative bets are backSome of what retail investors are buying has troubled observers. Different from 2021, however, is that institutional and retail investors look like they're on the same team, at least to a noticeable degree. To JPMorgan's Kolanovic, retail investors' optimism foreshadows future weakness in the stock market, as weak hands get wiped out by volatility, similar to how 2022 played out. With the Fed still set to tighten monetary policy, retail investors' enthusiasm for risky assets could backfire like it did last year.

☆ Speculative bets are cool again and Reddit's army of retail investors is partying like it's 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

And yet, despite the dip this week, markets right now are brimming with bullishness — and Reddit-loving retail investors are partying like it's 2021. Retail investors are rebuffing Jerome Powell in piling into speculative assets. Remember, at the start of the pandemic, government stimulus and near-zero interest rates gave retail investors the perfect opportunity to lay down speculative bets. "With all of these headwinds, retail investors are jumping in on maybe some ill-conceived optimism," Goldman said. But economic data be damned, retail investors are still piling into the riskiest corners of the market.

☆ The chief executive of an AI-driven markets analytics company breaks down how to invest in the craze sparked by ChatGPT
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Today, I'm eager to share my conversation with the CEO of a markets analytics platform that leverages the power of artificial intelligence. Jan Szilagyi is the chief executive officer and cofounder of Toggle AI. Toggle AIJan Szilagyi is the chief executive officer and cofounder of Toggle AI. Jan Szilagyi: We've seen a big increase in business and a huge spike in inquiries to Toggle AI. Ultimately, I don't think AI is going to be a fad though.

☆ Morning Bid: Growth trumps rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While there were some questions about seasonal adjustments in the data, economists were impressed that sales growth was pretty broad based and have scrambled to re-crunch first quarter U.S. output forecasts as a result. There may be a more mixed picture from Thursday's data slate on producer prices, housing starts and weekly jobless claims. Even though rates futures and Treasury yields ticked back a bit today, pricing now has Fed policy rates moving as high as 5.25% and staying above 5% all year. And while full-year earnings growth estimates for S&P500 companies have sunk to zero, consensus forecasts are now pencilling in a rebound of almost 12% next year. Uncertainty about the pace of growth and annual tax receipts in April makes it difficult for government officials to predict the exact "X-date", it said.

☆ U.S. household debt jumps to $16.90 trillion
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Feb 16 (Reuters) - U.S. household debt jumped to a record $16.90 trillion from October through December last year, the largest quarterly increase in 20 years, as mortgage and credit card balances surged amid high inflation and rising interest rates, a Federal Reserve report showed on Thursday. Household debt, which rose by $394 billion last quarter, is now $2.75 trillion higher than just before the COVID-19 pandemic began while the increase in credit card balances last December from one year prior was the largest since records began in 1999, the New York Fed's quarterly household debt report also said. Mortgage debt increased by $254 billion to $11.92 trillion at the end of December, according to the report, while mortgage originations fell to $498 billion, representing a return to levels last seen in 2019. Meanwhile credit card balances increased by $61 billion in the fourth quarter while auto loan balances rose by $28 billion, the report said. However, younger borrowers appear to be struggling more to make repayments for both credit card and auto loans.

☆ Wall Street luminaries say it's time to get out of the stock market before the Fed crushes the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Tuesday's CPI data showed inflation climbed 0.5% in January, slightly higher than expected, and year-over-year it slowed to 6.4%. Prices, it seems, aren't cooling down as smoothly or quickly as anyone wants, especially the Fed. To Kolanovic, a recession is all but guaranteed if the Fed is serious about its 2% inflation target. And like Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management investment chief Lisa Shalett warned that Fed policy is going to pull stocks lower. US stock futures fall early Wednesday, as investors pick over yesterday's CPI inflation report to assess what it means for the Fed.

☆ A recession indicator is blaring louder than it did before the 2008 downturn - but 'no one seems to care'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A New York Fed economic model shows the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are at 57%. That's worse than it was before 2008 and the highest it's been since the early 1980s, according to DataTrek Research. Currently, the model shows the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are at 57%. Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread DataTrek Research, NY FedMarkets have rallied to start the new year. The realistic chance of a downturn hasn't been fully priced in, in his view, and investors should fade 2023's early stock rally.

☆ US stocks close mixed as Dow dives nearly 400 points on weak Goldman Sachs earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs missed fourth-quarter estimates, while Morgan Stanley exceeded expectations. The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined nearly 22 points to -32.9, the lowest reading in nearly two years. Goldman Sachs contributed most to the market's sour sentiment, with the firm missing fourth-quarter expectations and weighing heavily on the Dow. Morgan Stanley reported better-than-expected earnings. Early Tuesday, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined nearly 22 points to -32.9, the lowest reading in nearly two years.

☆ Corporate profit reports in the week ahead could show whether there's an 'earnings recession'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors in the week ahead will focus on how much inflation and the slowing economy have chiseled away at corporate profits, as companies including Goldman Sachs , Netflix and Procter & Gamble report earnings. "This is going to be the start of the clock ticking on an earnings recession," said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. Economic recession talk heats up "There's never been a recession without an earnings recession since World War II," Agati said. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said this coming earnings week could be an important step towards assessing the health of corporate balance sheets. Week ahead calendar Monday Martin Luther King Jr. Day Markets closed Tuesday Earnings: Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley , Citizens Financial, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers 8:30 a.m.

☆ Consumers see inflation—and spending—cooling off in the year ahead, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

People shop for goods at a Publix in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 22, 2022, ahead of winter storm Elliot. Consumers see the inflation burden easing while they expect to pull back considerably on their spending, according to a closely watched survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday. Consumers expect gas prices to increase 4.1% and food prices to rise 7.6% over the next year, but both figures represent 0.7 percentage point declines from the previous month. Despite the efforts, survey respondents grew more optimistic about the labor market, with 40.8% expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now, a 1.4 percentage point decline from November. Home prices also are expected to grow 1.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from November, according to the survey.

☆ Important inflation data and big bank earnings could create volatility for markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Other speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard all speak at separate events. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have appearances Friday. The most important inflation report in the week ahead is the consumer price index, released Thursday. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 10:20 a.m. Philadelphia Fed's Harker 9:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins

☆ Analysis: Global economy bets on China learning to live with COVID
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda cited the resurgence of virus cases in China as putting downward pressure on the global economy, while Taiwan listed the spread of COVID-19 in China as one big uncertainty facing its economy. But equally, those inflationary pressures could be cancelled out if China's woes led to softer global demand for commodities. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, launched about a year ago, already edged higher in October and November in a moderate reversal of a persistent loosening of global supply bottlenecks seen through most of 2022. Much will depend on the policy response of Chinese leaders who have pledged to support the slowing economy and to cushion the impact of rising COVID-19 infections. The World Bank now sees China's economy growing 2.7% this year and 4.3% in 2023, somewhat slower than its September forecasts of 2.8% and 4.5%, respectively.

☆ With inflation still elevated, a recession looming, and workers still in short supply, the minimum salary people will accept right now is almost $74,000
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That's according to average reservation wage results from the New York Fed's SCE Labor Market Survey. The average reservation wage in November 2022 was $73,667, 4.7% higher than the average a year earlier. Prices are soaring, the labor market is still hot, and some small businesses are having a hard time filling openings. The average reservation wage from March 2020 to November 2022 climbed more for employed people, compared to peers who aren't working. The record reservation wage also backs up what economic data has continually shown: The labor market doesn't seem too worried about a recession.

Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure is currently running at 6%, three times its 2% target. Inflation has cooled in recent months, as supply chain problems eased and higher interest rates have restrained the housing market. Over the past several rate-hiking cycles, the Fed raised rates and kept them there for an average of 11 months before cutting them. She said her own forecast for rates is in line with the 5.1% peak rate expected by the majority of her colleagues. Fed policymakers this week forecast GDP growing about a half-a-percent next year.

☆ Here’s how to invest in the stock market next year, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"Once rate hikes bite labor markets, the Fed will pause, and investors should deploy the $1.9 trillion," Bank of America strategists said. With a new normal of elevated inflation, BofA expects equal-weighted stock market indices to perform better than market-cap-weighted ones. How will you adjust your stock market investing strategy for the new year as recession signals heat up? The legendary investor estimated that policymakers may push the benchmark rate as high as 5.5%, which he warned could weigh especially heavily on the stock market. The stock market's recent run is due to fail even as investors are anticipating a Fed pivot ahead.

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wholesale prices increased less than expected in October, adding to hopes that inflation is on the wane, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly increase equaled September's gain of 0.2%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index also rose 0.2% on the month and 5.4% on the year. Hopes that inflation is at least slowing spiked last week when the CPI showed a monthly gain of 0.4%, lower than the 0.6% estimate. The central bank has hiked its benchmark borrowing rate six times year for a total of 3.75 percentage points, its highest level in 14 years.

☆ Banking giants and New York Fed start 12-week digital dollar pilot
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Lananh Nguyen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the participants announced on Tuesday. Citigroup Inc , HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.L), Mastercard Inc (MA.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) are among the financial companies participating in the experiment alongside the New York Fed's innovation center, they said in a statement. The project, which is called the regulated liability network, will be conducted in a test environment and use simulated data, the New York Fed said. The pilot will test how banks using digital dollar tokens in a common database can help speed up payments. Earlier this month, Michelle Neal, head of the New York Fed's market's group, said it sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar to speed up settlement time in currency markets.

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