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☆ How high could interest rates go? Where analysts see the 10-year yield headed next
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit its highest level in 16 years, but a host of economists and money managers and investors expect it can go still further. If the 10-year yield broke out convincingly above 5.25%, Ginsberg said it could next move above 7% — although he'd be "shocked" to see yields that high. He assumes that even a 10-year yield above 5% will cause something to go wrong in one corner of the market or the economy. "It's gonna be a challenging environment for investors, for stock investors," Ginsberg said. However, he expects the 10-year yield could stabilize around 4.5% and 5%.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, We're, Russell, Katie Stockton, Stockton, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ray Dalio, Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Yardeni, Research, Apple, Nvidia, U.S ., Bridgewater Associates Locations: Stockton

☆ Stock market weakness could continue in week ahead as looming government shutdown adds to fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Headwinds are piling up for the market heading into the final week of the month, as September lives up to its reputation as a horrible month for Wall Street. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg pointed out in a note this week that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn't suggest much fear in markets. "We have a potential shutdown in Washington, as well as the UAW strike, which could potentially create some volatility in jobs data in particular." But investors heading into the final trading week of September will likely see a continuation of those losses, if history is any indication. "We could see the market experience additional weakness over the next several weeks," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, VIX, Amy Wu Silverman, Aditya Bhave, Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, there's, RBC's Wu Silverman, what's, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Sam Stovall, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Reserve, Bank of America U.S, UAW, CFRA, Costco Wholesale, Nike, Chicago, Dallas Fed, New, Richmond Fed, Costco, Micron, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, BEA, Auto, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Washington, Detroit, . Kansas, Chicago, Michigan

☆ Beware of these stocks with low earnings quality that could blow up your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Wall Street firm came up with its proprietary quarterly earnings quality (EQ) score, which it said is an objective way to identify potential accounting-related risk. Wolfe Research's analysis covered more than 2,000 companies and focused on the balance sheets and cash flow statements in the companies' second-quarter earnings reports. Here are some of the companies that rank the lowest on Wolfe's screen (0 is the lowest score, and 100 is the highest.) The firm said its low earnings quality basket, which includes companies with an EQ score less than 10, has underperformed the S & P 500 by 800 basis points year to date. Endeavor Group and The Trade Desk were two stocks with the lowest score in the communication services sector.

Persons: Wolfe, Armour Organizations: Federal, Wolfe Research, Endeavor Group, Hasbro, Tesla, Wyndham Hotels

☆ Stocks may be losing market leader just ahead of August inflation reports next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The stock market may be losing one of its leaders heading into the release of key inflation reports next week that could clarify the path of future monetary policy. Apple weakness However, even after Apple's drop this week, some investors expect to see further declines in Apple because of deteriorating stock price momentum. A hotter-than-expected price report will likely add to investor concern over sticky inflation and tighter monetary policy, weighing on equities. Monday Sept. 11 Earnings: Oracle Tuesday Sept. 12 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (August) Wednesday Sept. 13 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (August) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (09/09) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (August) 8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (August) 10 a.m. Business Inventories (July) Earnings: Lennar , Adobe , Copart Friday Sept. 15 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Tim Cook, selloff, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Dan Niles, Satori, Wolfe's Ginsberg, Alex McGrath, FactSet, isn't, Price, —, Michael Bloom, Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Apple, Wolfe Research, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Tech, Satori Fund, U.S . West Texas, ICE Brent, Federal Reserve, Wealth, Traders, United Auto Workers, UAW, Big Three, General Motors, Ford Motor, Treasury Budget, Retail, Adobe, Price, Index, Manufacturing Locations: China, Apple, U.S, @CL, Michigan

☆ Investors should stick to the barbell approach, says Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should stick to the barbell approach, says Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the sectors he sees best positioned for the second half of the year.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek Chris Senyek Organizations: Wolfe Research

☆ Altcoin trading volume is off its first-half highs. Here's what it will take to get it back
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Altcoin trading is limping along, despite initially getting a boost from a key July court ruling that gave Ripple a partial victory over the Securities and Exchange Commission. However, this is not a strong enough narrative to take over the broader theme of deterioration in crypto market structure, said Park added. "This has serious implications for altcoin trading, as the shift in focus to alternatives like FDUSD or TUSD has created a bottleneck for pairs trading that is often how altcoin liquidity is gauged and accessed," he added. "At its peak, there were over 300 BUSD trading pairs and the number is steadily decreasing as BUSD is ceasing its operations." Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg noted this week that weak price action and low trading volume largely define the trading of altcoins in the current market.

Persons: —, Jeff Park, Glassnode, altcoins, Binance Launchpad, Stablecoins, CryptoQuant, Changpeng Zhao, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Seasonality, Crypto, Dessislava Aubert, Michael Bloom Organizations: Securities and Exchange Commission, Bitwise Asset Management, SEC, Polygon, CNBC, Binance, BTC Locations: Solana, New York, BUSD's, altcoins, China

☆ Energy is our favorite sector, says Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy is our favorite sector, says Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, how investors should prepare for the new month ahead, and more.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek Chris Senyek Organizations: Email Energy, Wolfe Research

☆ Jim Cramer takes issue with Wolfe Research's 'very gutsy call' on this financial stock
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Discover Financial Services (DFS) stock surged 1.82% Thursday morning following an upgrade from Wolfe Research, to trade around $90 apiece. If you like this story, sign up for Jim Cramer's Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free. CNBC's Jim Cramer took issue with Wolfe's "very gutsy call," citing reports of Discover overcharging merchants for more than a decade. In the meantime, if you want a bargain, take advantage of Nvidia (NVDA) if the stock is down." The artificial-intelligence chipmaker, an Investing Club stock, reported another blowout quarter on Wednesday.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, CNBC's Jim Cramer, there's Organizations: Discover Financial Services, Wolfe Research, Discover, Nvidia, Club Locations: Discover overcharging

☆ The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. What it means for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2011. What's more, higher yields are typically a negative for tech and growth stocks — this year's best-performing group — as they lessen the value of their promised future earnings. Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish said Monday he expects the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.25%, citing risks to the bond market on inflation expectations. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury yield YTD "The market has been consistently underpricing the risk of additional rate hikes and overpricing the speed of rate cuts," Kalish wrote.

Persons: Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Strategas, Chris Verrone, 133bps, Verrone, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach, it's, Tom Essaye, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chris Hayes Organizations: Treasury, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Bitcoin fell through a key level and is giving a bearish signal. Here’s what chart analysts say happens next
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin tumbled to finish the week after many weeks of stillness in the market, and chart analysts say it's possible this could be just the beginning. Bitcoin also broke its 200-day moving average of $27,300, which could signal an impending downtrend. A range emerges between $25,000 and $30,000 Bitcoin has been here before. The $25,000 level was a key resistance threshold from last summer through March of this year after bitcoin briefly touched $30,000 in its banking crisis-fueled rally. Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton puts the next downside target a little higher at $25,200, with a secondary target level of $20,600.

Persons: Bitcoin, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, bitcoin, Julius de Kempenaer, de Kempenaer, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, Katie Stockton, Stockton Organizations: Elon, SpaceX, CNBC, BlackRock, BTC

☆ Oil prices remain big pitfall ahead for markets, says Wolfe Research's Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil prices remain big pitfall ahead for markets, says Wolfe Research's SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the potential pitfalls in the next six months, Senyek's main concerns with oil prices, and the impact of Treasury issuance on mega-cap technology stocks.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek Organizations: Wolfe Research

☆ The stock market is ignoring the yield curve. History says that's a bad idea
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was trading at 4.752% on Friday, more than 100 basis points , or 1 percentage point, above the 10-year Treasury yield . The yield curve is considered inverted when short-term rates are above long-term ones, a phenomenon that has almost always predated a recession. 10Y2YS 1Y mountain The U.S. Treasury yield curve has become deeply inverted over the past year. But despite the deeply inverted curve, stocks are rallying — even the economically sensitive industrial names. He also drew a connection between the current yield curve and the market conditions in the late 1970s.

Persons: —, Chris Verrone, Verrone, Goldman Sachs, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Jerome, Senyek, Paul Volcker, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury Locations: U.S

☆ Microsoft's bet on AI is still in its early days. But there are signs it's already paying off.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Paayal Zaveri | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI has lead to a new wave of innovation in artificial intelligence. There are already early signs that the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership is paying off, analysts say. Analysts say there is still work to be done, but "Microsoft is leading this tech AI arms race." Wall Street analysts took that as a sign that Microsoft's big bet on AI is already leading to financial gains. Ultimately, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said, "the AI story is still in the first inning," but, he said, "Microsoft is leading this tech AI arms race."

☆ 'The numbers need to come down,' bears say ahead of the next round of earnings reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Earnings season does not start until April 14, when the big banks begin reporting, but already the bears are saying expectations are too high. One of the issues that drives bears crazy is the refusal of analysts to slash earnings estimates for 2023. This is exactly what happened during the big selloff that culminated in the drop in the S & P in October of last year. These estimates from analysts are known as "bottoms-up" estimates, because the estimates come from an analysis of individual companies. I'll get into this more as we get closer to earnings season, but here's an example from Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek.

Wolfe Research warned investors to avoid these low-quality stocks that could blow up. Using fourth-quarter corporate results, Wolfe Research identified potentially underperforming stocks using its earnings quality score, which considers several variables including sentiment, valuation metrics and various financial ratios. From this group, Wolfe Research found the names in the bottom 10% of its earnings quality score. Wolfe Research also identified names with high short interest relative to the company's sector. Wolfe also found the company has the lowest earnings quality score of all energy stocks tracked at just 2.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Wolfe Research's Steven Chubak
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Wolfe Research's Steven ChubakSteven Chubak, Wolfe Research managing director, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the unease lingering in banks.

☆ Risk is growing in the broader financial sector, says Wolfe Research's Steven Chubak
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRisk is growing in the broader financial sector, says Wolfe Research's Steven ChubakSteven Chubak, Wolfe Research managing director, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the unease lingering in banks.

☆ Wolfe Research says WWE shares could rally 30% following Vince McMahon's return
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wolfe Research reiterated WWE as outperform, noting that the return of Vince McMahon could jolt the company's TV rights renewal process. Earlier, Wolfe Research published a note downgrading WWE shares in error. Stephanie McMahon resigned earlier this month from her role as co-CEO and chairwoman following the unanimous election of her father, Vince, as company's executive chairman. "We think there's more game theory to Vince's return than what meets the eye," Supino said in the correct note to clients. Supino said Vince's return could give a "shot in the arm" to the 2025 TV rights renewal process and his willingness to sell could drive up prices for the rights.

☆ Netflix's subscriber growth signals better times ahead, but some analysts say it's still too early to buy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Netflix 's strong fourth-quarter subscriber growth and solid content slate may signal the start of better times for the streaming stock, but it may be too early to buy up shares, according to some Wall Street analysts. Netflix reported 7.66 million adds, compared to 4.57 million subscribers expected by StreetAccount estimates. Analysts view the company's new advertising tier and its content slate as key to Netflix's financial performance in the months ahead. Since reporting second-quarter earnings results, Netflix shares have risen more than 46%. On the leadership front, Supino and analysts view the CEO transition as a positive for the company.

☆ There's at least a 20 percent downside for stocks from here, says Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's at least a 20 percent downside for stocks from here, says Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the markets and trading day.

☆ The bear market isn't over, and drawdown has another 25% to go, Wolfe Research predicts
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors hoping that the 2022 bear market will subside next year are likely to be disappointed, according to Wolfe Research's outlook for 2023. The firm sees the slump in stocks continuing, and even falling further from trading prevailing prices. "The current bear market isn't over – we expect another 25% to 35% drawdown from current levels," analyst Chris Senyek wrote in a note Tuesday. Bear market signals There are multiple reasons that Senyek sees stocks falling further next year instead of rebounding into a new bull market. Wolfe's checklist Of the 10 items on Wolfe's "market bottom" checklist, none have definitively turned positive.

☆ Wolfe Research says buy Procter & Gamble, a defensive name as investors 'flee to safety'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should consider putting their money in Procter & Gamble amid the ongoing search for safety in this difficult macro climate, according to Wolfe Research. Analyst Greg Badishkanian initiated coverage of the consumer staple stock with an outperform rating and a $156 price target. "P & G's brand portfolio has delivered strong demand elasticities to date as they innovate and reinvest in the brands," he said. "We view their geographic exposure and balance sheet as defensive, which should support fund flows as investors flee to safety." Wolfe Research's price target implies an 8% upside from Monday's close.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Senyek's thoughts on recent market performance, the next trigger for a lower market trajectory and more.

☆ We would be selling any rally here — it's not a change in trend, says Wolfe Research's Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe would be selling any rally here — it's not a change in trend, says Wolfe Research's SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his thoughts on recent market performance, the next trigger for a lower market trajectory and more.

☆ Wolfe Research says buy this software stock poised to rally 25%
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Despite its 38% tumble this year, Wolfe Research expects shares of Splunk to rally in the months ahead. Analyst Joshua Tilton initiated coverage of the software company with an outperform rating and $90 price target, saying in a note to clients that shares are trading at attractive levels even as the company faces a weakening spending environment and growing competition. Splunk, used as a tool to locate security threats, has seen its shares tumble more than 59% from its 52-week highs as it grapples with a troublesome macro environment, a new CEO and no chief financial officer. Last month, activist investor Starboard Value revealed a growing stake in the software company . Wolfe Research's new price target implies a 25% upside for the stock from Friday's close.

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