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Stocks within the adoption frameworkWhile there could be a few angles one might use to determine where a company fits within AI's development, Goldman Sachs created their version of AI's adoption phases. Additional early winners of AI were mega-cap technology names that had steep earnings growth and attracted a lot of investors. Throughout 2023, there was a 53% gap in annual earnings growth between the top five AI names and the rest of the S&P 500. But as we enter 2025, Goldman estimates that the earnings growth between the big five and the rest of the market will tighten. The graph below demonstrates Goldman's forecast of a slowdown in earnings growth from the concentrated names and a modest pickup for the broader market.
Persons: , It's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Service, Business, Chief US, Nvidia, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLarge-cap cyclicals can work for investors here, says Citi's Drew PettitKeith Lerner, Truist Wealth co-chief investment officer, and Drew Pettit, Citi director of US equity strategy, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Citi's Drew Pettit Keith Lerner, Drew Pettit Organizations: Truist, Citi
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed cuts are on the horizon, 'even if they're pushed off', says BNY Mellon's Jake JollyLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy, and Jake Jolly, BNY Mellon head of investment analysis, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: they're, BNY, Jake Jolly Lori Calvasina, Jake Jolly, BNY Mellon Organizations: RBC Capital Markets
Even though the S&P 500 has risen under Trump and Biden, the candidates' policy differences will likely have a significant impact on which stocks outperform, according to Goldman Sachs. 34 US-focused stocks to ownTrump's so-called "America First" agenda appears to be a tailwind for companies that generate most or all of their sales in the US, according to Goldman Sachs. Kostin and his colleagues recently highlighted their domestic sales basket, which comprises 50 stocks in the S&P 500 with that description. Within that group, there are 34 companies that Goldman Sachs said generated 0% of their revenue from outside the US in the last year. Below are 34 stocks that are set to outperform if Trump wins and implements tariffs, along with each stock's ticker, market capitalization, sector, and revenue from the previous 12 months.
Persons: , Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Trump, Kostin, it's Organizations: Service, Republicans, Democratic, Business, White, Biden, Trump, Goldman Locations: China
The US chipmaker’s market capitalization hit $3.34 trillion on June 18 to surpass Microsoft’s but has since shed $430 billion. Now worth $2.91 trillion, Nvidia has fallen into third place globally, behind Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL), which have a market cap of $3.33 trillion and $3.19 trillion respectively. The company’s chips power AI systems, including generative AI, the technology behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT that can create text, images and other media. Now investors have started to take profits and they seem to prefer selling stocks with the best year-to-date performance.”Market contagion? Nvidia is a member of the so-called Magnificent Seven, the mega-cap tech companies whose shares greatly outperformed the broader US stock market rally last year.
Persons: ” Jim Reid, OpenAI’s, Nvidia’s, ” Jochen Stanzl, , , Derren Nathan, Hargreaves, isn’t, Organizations: London CNN, Nvidia, US, Microsoft, Apple, Deutsche Bank, CMC, CNN, Nasdaq
The S&P 500 alone has generated an average return of 7% during presidential election years since 1952, according to LPL Financial. If you limit that to election years in which the incumbent president is running for reelection, the average jumps to 12.2%. Yes, but: Market volatility in an election year tends to pick up in October and there are many months left in this cycle with potential surprises to come. “An autumn pullback fits well time wise with potential downside earnings revisions, make-or-break decision time for the Fed, and election uncertainty. The first round of the French election will be held on June 30, with a second round on July 7.
Persons: Goldman Sachs —, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, they’re, It’s, Goldman Sachs ’ Scott Rubner, , , Mark Hackett, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jim Reid, There’s, Emmanuel Macron, Katie Nixon, Chris Isidore ., they’ve, Samantha Murphy Kelly, ChatGPT —, Siri —, OpenAI, Siri, ChatGPT, hasn’t, Organizations: London CNN — Traders, Investors, White, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Nasdaq, Citigroup, Goldman, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Deutsche, Fed, United, Labour Party, Renaissance, Northern Trust Wealth Management, Alaska Airlines, Alaska —, Southwest —, Southwest, Railway Labor, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Samsung, Cyberspace Administration, Wall, IDC Locations: United States, France, , Alaska, China
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThere are two major similarities between today's stock market environment and the dot-com bubble era, says RIA Advisors CIO Lance Roberts. RIA Advisors/AccentureAnd two, there is a small group of firms leading the overall stock market rally, just as it was in 2000. He's a bit more optimistic this time around because of the robust earnings performance fueling the few stocks leading the market. Advertisement"We are again experiencing another of these speculative 'booms,' as anything related to artificial intelligence grips investors' imaginations," Roberts said.
Persons: , Lance Roberts, Roberts, Jonathan Golub Organizations: Service, RIA, Business, Accenture, Nvidia, UBS, Investors, Federal Reserve
Nvidia stock has climbed 174% in 2024, as the AI boom continues to boost equities. The stock market was closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. S&P 500 futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors look for the benchmark to add to its latest record high. Nvidia already surpassed Apple by market cap earlier in June, and has cemented its place as the de facto market leader at the helm of the roaring AI theme on Wall Street. "Is it any surprise that we continue to argue that Wall Street (i.e., SP 500) is beating to a different drum than is Main Street (underlying US economy)?"
Persons: Scott Chronert, Thomas Fitzpatrick, O'Brien Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Apple, Investors, Broadcom, Citi, Associates
So that's what the bank did, listing 10 signals that they found to be most reliable, as well as the best investing approach for a market peak. The index has reached 110 within the six months preceding every market peak since July 1990, and in January 2024, it reached 111. ValuationElevated stock valuations are also telling of a market peak, but Bank of America's indicators relating to P/E ratios aren't currently triggered. A third macroeconomic indicator, Bank of America's Credit Stress Indicator (CSI), is not triggered. It often drops below 0.25 within six months of a market peak, but sits at 0.39.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, America quantifies Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, Conference, Bank of America Investor, Bank, America, The Conference Board, SSI, Wall Street, of America's, CSI Locations: today's
Some analysts are eyeing zero rate cuts from the Fed this year. AdvertisementAfter the latest jobs report all but dismissed an interest rate cut in July, some analysts are taking it a step further, and expect no rate cuts at all this calendar year. That's more pessimistic than what investors continue to bet on, with fed fund futures indicating at least one 25-basis point rate cut to occur in 2024. According to market veteran Ed Yardeni, the Federal Reserve should "take a vacation," and leave interest rates unchanged through 2024, he told CNBC-TV18. AdvertisementMeanwhile, Catalyst Capital's David Miller agreed that the Fed shouldn't cut interest rates in 2024, citing that this would allow inflation to run hotter.
Persons: RBC's Lori Calvasina, , That's, It's, Lori Calvasina, Ed Yardeni, Capital's David Miller, Mark Zandi, I've Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Treasury, Federal, CNBC, TV18, Yardeni Research, Moody Analytics, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need to get beyond this Fed narrative and start looking ahead to 2025, says RBC's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: RBC's Lori Calvasina Lori Calvasina, Warren Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, 3Fourteen Research
That's helping establish a new millennial milestone for some: Ditching roommates, moving out from the family home, and landing on living alone. Business Insider's analysis of American Community Survey microdata from IPUMS found that 10.5% of millennials lived alone in 2022. Per BI's analysis of American Community Survey data via IPUMS, 16% of millennials lived with at least one parent as of 2022. (The data doesn't specify if that means they're living with their parents or if their parents are living with them.) Subsidized solo livingSome lower-earning millennials are able to get assistance reaching the solo-living milestone — but it's not always easy.
Persons: Jess Munday's, Jess Munday's San Francisco, Munday, " Munday, I'm, it's, IPUMS, millennials, Bella DePaulo, they've, DePaulo, she'd, Jess Munday, Dara Feller, Aria Velasquez, they're, " Velasquez, Velasquez, Erica Charles, she's, Charles, Rick Fry, Fry, She'd, She's, Clibborn, Sydney Krantz, He's, , homeownership Chaz Zimmer, Chaz Zimmer, Adrianna Newell, Tomasz Piskorski, Piskorski, Zimmer hasn't, Zimmer, he's, James Paniagua, Paniagua, snagging, Julia Mazur, Kathy Pierre, Pierre Organizations: Business, American, Survey, Pew, BI Garak, BI, Subaru, Columbia Business School Locations: Jess Munday's San, Francisco's, San Francisco, Chicago, Washington ,, IPUMS, Florida, California, Waverly , New York, homeownership, Oakland , California, Los Angeles, Oakland, London, Austin, Charlotte , North Carolina, Charlotte
Since then, several major investment firms have lifted their long-term S&P 500 price targets. The firm recommends pairing cyclicals and growth stocks with those attributes so that investors are prepared for stronger or weaker growth. Technology firms using AI need more power, which is a major long-term tailwind for utility companies, Wilson wrote. "We see the recent pullback as an attractive entry point and an opportunity to formally upgrade the sector to overweight," Wilson wrote. "Small-cap valuation is relatively cheap but earnings growth is highly concentrated," Wilson wrote.
Persons: , Brian Belski, Binky, Morgan Stanley, Long, Mike Wilson, subpar, Wilson, Wilson's, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Service, Business, BMO Capital, Deutsche Bank, optimist, Consumer, Utilities
In today's big story, inflation is cooling just in time for a US presidential election that will likely focus heavily on the economy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyThe economy and the electionAnna Moneymaker/Getty, Anna Moneymaker/Getty, Tyler Le/BISometimes, the biggest surprise is when there isn't one at all. AdvertisementOn Wednesday, Biden and Trump agreed to face off in two debates, the first coming in June . Now he has 18 direct reports, according to an internal org chart seen by Business Insider.
Persons: , Anna Moneymaker, Tyler Le, haven't, Insider's Madison Hoff, they're, Jennifer Sor, Ed Yardeni, Jerome Powell hasn't, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Trump's, Alyssa Powell, Keith Gill's, Jim Simons, Shaw, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Sameer Samat, Sundar Pichai, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Biden, White, Democratic, Renaissance Technologies, Sigma, Bloomberg, Android, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Walmart Locations: New York, London
Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin says the S&P 500 could trade flat for the rest of the year. He told Bloomberg TV that the index has already reached Goldman's year-end target of 5,200. AdvertisementThe stock market rally has run its course for 2024, as the S&P 500 now stands above Goldman Sachs' year-end prediction, the firm's chief US equity strategist David Kostin said. The S&P 500 surpassed Goldman's year-end target of 5,200 earlier this month. Still, the Goldman stock chief isn't giving up entirely on the possibility of a bullish turnaround.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, , Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Bloomberg TV, Goldman, Federal, UBS
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBarclays' Venu Krishna: S&P 500's 'sensitivity to CPI remains high'Venu Krishna, Barclays head of US equity strategy, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss markets, inflation, the Fed, earnings, and more.
Persons: Venu Krishna Organizations: Barclays
OMAHA, Nebraska — Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders left last weekend's annual meeting pondering Warren Buffett's big revelation about succession. Others think Abel will be more likely to delegate the responsibility of stock selection. Buffett's investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, have independently managed about $15 billion each for Berkshire over the past decade. In addition to Berkshire's enormous equity portfolio, its pile of cash grew to nearly $189 billion at the end of March. The new forecast would translate into more than 20% upside and push Berkshire's total market value above $1 trillion.
Persons: Warren Buffett's, Greg Abel, Buffett, Greg, Abel, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Buffett hasn't, Combs, Bill Stone, Charlie Munger, who's, he's, Bueffett's, Cathy Seifert, Brian Meredith, Meredith, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: OMAHA , Nebraska —, Berkshire Hathaway, Saturday, Madison Investments, CNBC, Geico, Glenview Trust, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, UBS Locations: OMAHA , Nebraska, Omaha, Berkshire, Toyama, UBS Berkshire
Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
Stocks closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple earnings and the April jobs report. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said the stock market has more room to run even without a rate cut. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS indexes closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple's earnings and a key labor report set to be published Friday morning. Bank of America's US equity head, Savita Subramanian, has said the stock market has more room to run even without looser monetary policy.
Persons: America's Savita Subramanian, , Dow Jones, Veronica Clark, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Bank, America's, Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow, Citi, Bank of, Bloomberg, Nasdaq Locations: China
Large technology stocks have continued to be a key driver of earnings growth. Those calls are based on the firms' expectation that the economy will continue to grow despite uncomfortably high interest rates. Bullish firms concur that elevated interest rates are a serious concern for investors. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Kostin wrote. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, 2024 expected earnings growth rate, and 10-year EBITDA growth variability rate, according to Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, Stocks, they've, Mike Wilson, Morgan, 19.3x, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Wilson, Kostin, Russell Organizations: UBS, Business, UBS Beats, UBS Global Wealth Management, Companies, Federal Reserve
The quarterly measure saw wage and labor costs accelerate, adding pressure on the Fed. Tuesday marks the start of the Fed's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS equity markets slipped Tuesday as hot labor data stoked fresh bets the Federal Reserve would remain hawkish on monetary policy. The Employee Cost Index, a quarterly measure of wages and benefits, jumped 1.2%, suppressing estimates of a 1% acceleration.
Persons: , It's Organizations: Fed, Federal, Market, Service, Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Amazon, Apple, Here's, Trump, Bloomberg
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks closed higher on Friday to end the best week since November, with tech rallying after earnings from mega-cap stalwarts. Instead, traders focused mostly on earnings strength from Alphabet and Microsoft. In a Friday note, Fundstrat's Mark Newton pointed out that the earnings of Alphabet and Microsoft are paving the way for a broad rally. Next week, Apple and Amazon, will release earnings and investors will be focused on the Fed's next policy meeting scheduled for April 30-May 1.
Persons: , Fundstrat's Mark Newton, Savita Subramanian, we're, it's, Subramanian Organizations: Microsoft, Service, Federal, Amazon, Nvidia, Technology, Bank of, CNBC, Apple, Dow Locations: Here's
But strategists at the Wall Street giant aren't only watching sales and earnings growth, the latter of which is expected to rise 8% this year and 6% in 2025. Share buybacks will be the next most common use of cash, Kostin wrote. Companies will also reward shareholders through dividends, which should tick up 6% this year thanks to 8% earnings growth, according to Goldman Sachs. "The AI investment cycle among the mega-cap tech stocks will support investing for growth," Kostin wrote. Goldman SachsBelow are the 30 stocks in that basket where capex and R&D spending is at least 10% of a company's market value.
Persons: shouldn't, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, That's, It's, they'll, Stocks Organizations: Business, Corporate
Global stock markets may be coming under pressure from geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation — but one portfolio manager sees potential in several stocks. Hinchliffe oversees more than $1 billion of PineBridge's assets via its Global Focus Equity Fund . What we are trying to do is beat the benchmark by constructing our portfolio to be similar to the market from a risk perspective," Hinchliffe said. "We're not taking a view that small caps are better or worse this year than last year; we're not taking the view that growth stocks are better than value stocks. The portfolio manager noted that they "clearly led the market last year based on fantastic earnings growth by and large."
Persons: Rob Hinchliffe, Hinchliffe, , Morningstar, We're, we're, France's Legrand Organizations: PineBridge Investments, CNBC Pro, Global Focus Equity Fund, Equity Fund, Stock, Microsoft, Nvidia, Walmart Locations: U.S, Swiss
If the 10-year bond rate goes up 2%, every asset on the planet, including real estate, is worth 20% less. Advertisement"If things stay where they are, we have the soft landing that seems to be embedded in the marketplace, the real estate will muddle through. They won't muddle through under higher rates with a recession. That would be tough for a lot of folks, not just real estate, if that happens." Jeenah Moon / Reuters"We're in a period that comes after financial repression, where we'll have some inflation and some real rates.
Persons: , Wall, shouldn't, Jamie Dimon, I'm, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Jane Fraser, Julian Restrepo, Larry Fink, Stephen Schwarzman, Ted Pick, Morgan Stanley, Jeenah, Michael Santomassimo, Wells, Alistair Borthwick, that's Organizations: Service, Wall Street's, Business, titans, JPMorgan, Citigroup, AP, BlackRock, Blackstone, Bank of America Locations: East, Ukraine
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