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Minneapolis CNN —January’s jobs report delivered a heck of a surprise when it showed the US economy had added more than half a million jobs and unemployment had dipped to a level not seen in more than five decades. But economists say they are not bracing for another blindside when the February jobs report comes out on Friday. “I think most economists were comfortable dismissing the January jobs data as an anomaly,” Aaron Terrazas, Glassdoor’s chief economist, told CNN. “If we get a second strong jobs report [on Friday], it’s no longer an anomaly,” Terrazas added. Seasonality, benchmarking and the interplay of pandemic-era data don’t completely explain away January’s blockbuster jobs report, economists say, noting there are likely influences from the currently tight labor market.
March 6 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 made little progress on Monday, closing slightly higher than its session low as U.S. Treasury yields pulled higher with investors braced for this week's testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the February jobs report. Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. "People are worried about the jobs number and the economic data because they're worried about what the Fed will do. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 2.72 points, or 0.07%, to end at 4,048.36 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 12.59 points, or 0.11%, to 11,676.41. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer.
New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is on the hot seat this week as he testifies before Congress. Powell will have some good news to report — when he last testified before Congress in June, the inflation rate was at 40-year-highs, nearing 9%. Investors will also be on edge — hawkish language or even an aggressive tone from Powell could lead to market volatility. Some Fed officials agree. Economists, business leaders, investors and even Fed officials aren’t really sure about what’s happening.
Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. "People are worried about the jobs number and the economic data because they're worried about what the Fed will do. And with potential Fed rate hikes their key concern, Monday's data had already dampened investor enthusiasm, said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 85 new highs and 92 new lows.
Shares of iPhone maker Apple Inc (AAPL.O), last up 2%, were the biggest boost for the S&P 500 index (.SPX) after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "buy" rating. Correlation between S&P 500 and 2-year Treasury bond yieldsMonday's data likely dampened investor enthusiasm, said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago. Six of 11 major S&P 500 sectors rose. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 74 new highs and 71 new lows.
Morning Bid: Hopeful market awaits Powell testimony
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Coming off its best weekly performance since start of the year, the continent-wide STOXX might aim for another record high as traders await January retail sales data for the Eurozone later in the day. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued over the weekend, with San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly the latest to sound a warning on the inflationary threat. The market largely expects Powell to be hawkish this week but given his testimony comes before the jobs report is released, he will likely aim to keep all options open. Over in China, the country's leadership set a 5% target for economic growth this year, which analysts called conservative and pragmatic, as they kicked off the annual session of the National People's Congress. In the corporate world, Italian state lender CDP has bid for the fixed-line network of former phone monopoly Telecom Italia, rivalling an offering from U.S. firm KKR.
Fed's Daly: tighter policy, for a longer time, 'likely' needed
  + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The acceleration of inflation in January "suggests that the disinflation momentum we need is far from certain," Daly said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Princeton Economic Policy Symposium. "In order to put this episode of high inflation behind us, further policy tightening, maintained for a longer time, will likely be necessary." Coming from Daly, whose views are typically in line with Fed leadership, the remarks may add to expectations that Fed policymakers will lift rates higher in coming months than the 5.1% that most of them had penciled in December. Fed policymakers will publish fresh projections for policy and the economy at the close of their upcoming March 21-22 meeting. Daly did not use her prepared remarks to offer a view on how big March's rate hike ought to be, or exactly how high rates should go.
Morning Bid: Blue chips cheered up
  + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
[1/2] The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Its CEO Jensen Huang said use of its chips to power AI had "gone through the roof in the last 60 days." The Federal Reserve at least seems keen on the higher-for-longer message that's shaken world stock and bond markets this week. And as the minutes pre-date red-hot jobs and retail data for January, the message from Fed officials is probably even sterner now. A Reuters poll of equity analysts showed global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months.
New York CNN —The largest six banks in the United States have been given until July to show the Federal Reserve what effects disastrous climate change scenarios could have on their bottom lines. The Federal Reserve first announced the pilot program in September, noting that Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo would participate. In its announcement the Federal Reserve stressed that the exercise “is exploratory in nature and does not have capital consequences.” It also said that it would not publish individual banks’ results. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told CNN in October Thursday that this was a learning and exploratory exercise for the Federal Reserve. The other side: Critics of the pilot program have argued that the Federal Reserve was overstepping its boundaries and that they might soon begin to enforce financial penalties.
SummarySummary Companies U.S. CPI report due on ThursdayHawkish tone from Fed could prompt profit-taking - analystJan 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices were steady on Tuesday, with cautious traders largely focusing on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech for insights into the U.S. central bank's rate-hike trajectory. Spot gold held its ground at $1,872.79 per ounce, as of 0333 GMT. Investors' focus is on Powell's speech at a central bank conference later in the day. "Gold prices are hitting a key resistance at the $1,875 level ... A hawkish tone in Fed Chair Powell's speech later today could prompt some near-term profit-taking in gold," said IG Market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. "However, market is on the watch for a downside surprise in the U.S. CPI to support the less-hawkish rate-hike expectations, which could translate to upside for gold prices."
Slideshow ( 2 images )(Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Monday said a half-percentage-point interest rate hike, or a quarter-percentage-point increase, are both possibilities for the U.S. central bank’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting. “I can give you arguments for either side,” Daly said in a webcast interview with the Wall Street Journal. The Fed should try to bring inflation down “as gently as we can,” but it also “absolutely” needs to make sure high inflation does not become embedded. Daly said she thinks the policy rate, now in a 4.25%-4.50% range, will ultimately need to go to 5.00%-5.25% and stay there to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target, but exactly how far it will need to rise will depend on the data. Getting inflation down faster than that would require “enormous” labor market pain that Daly said she is not willing to inflict.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said Friday she sees the recent inflation news as welcome, but it's not enough to change her view on where policy needs to go. The October and November readings for the consumer price index amounted to "good news," but "we don't see anything right now but hope in the inflation data, and I get confidence in evidence, not hope. "We are far away from our price stability goal," she added. Daly, a nonvoter this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said her own expectations of where rates are headed is probably higher than current market pricing. Daly votes again in 2024.
Fed could hold rates at peak into 2024, Daly signals
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Dec 16 (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said it's a "reasonable" to think that once the Fed policy rate gets to its peak, it will stay there for nearly a year, and added she's prepared to keep it there longer if needed. Markets currently are pricing in rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Over the past several rate hiking cycles, the Fed has kept interest rates on hold for 11 months on average. "I think 11 months is a starting point, is a reasonable starting point. But I'm prepared to do more if more is required," she said, adding that it will be the data that determines exactly how long the Fed will keep rates restrictive.
Morning Bid: Hanging tough
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
As the world's major central banks turned the interest rate screw this week and insisted on more tightening ahead, their economies showed more signs of buckling under the pressure. And while markets lurched lower on the potentially toxic combination of a higher peak for interest rates into a looming recession, there are reasonable questions over whether the central banks will act as tough as they are talking. U.S. manufacturing declined 0.6% last month and reports from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve's showed business conditions in their regions remaining depressed in December. Even though after Wall St stocks plunged 2-3% on Thursday, futures remained deep in the red ahead of Friday's open. Led by the jump in euro zone sovereign borrowing rates after the ECB rethink, bond yields were higher across the board.
New York CNN —Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is striking a cautiously optimistic tone about 2023, predicting a major inflation cooldown and stressing that a recession isn’t required to get prices back under control. “I hope that it will be short-lived,” Yellen said of the current period of high inflation. “We learned a lot of lessons from the high inflation we experienced in the 1970s. Yellen conceded a recession is possible in the months ahead — though the former Fed chair emphasized that one isn’t required to tame inflation. “There’s a risk of a recession,” Yellen said.
Morning Bid: Wild oil ride amid China and crypto woe
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
[1/2] General view of the oil refinery, part of Grupa Lotos taken over by PKN Orlen in 2022, in Gdansk, Poland August 9, 2022. Turbulence in oil, China's COVID crunch and unravelling cryptocurrencies make for uncomfortable reading for investors starting to parse what looks like a recessionary year ahead. Higher interest rates and slowing economies dominate most 2023 outlooks, not least Tuesday's latest from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Underlining the growth gloom, China's battle with COVID and its widening curbs only seemed to worsen. Pain in the crypto world continued, with many investors fearing the fallout from the collapse of exchange FTX is just beginning.
Gold ticks up as dollar pauses advance; focus on Fed minutes
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,740.56 per ounce by 0033 GMT. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Monday the real-world impact of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hikes is likely greater than what its short-term rate target implies. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.2% to 906.06 tons on Monday. Spot silver advanced 0.4% to $20.92 per ounce, platinum also rose 0.3% to $985.30, while palladium added 0.6% to $1,877.14.
U.S. casino operators with businesses in China including Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN.O), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS.N), MGM Resorts International (MGM.N) and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd all fell at least 2%. [1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. Energy was the only major S&P 500 sector eying gains for the year, surging around 63%. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.60-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 96 new highs and 220 new lows.
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. "That's a piece of what's driving the tech stocks down because we rely so much on China and Taiwan for critical components." Energy was the only major S&P 500 sector eying gains for the year, surging around 63%. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.26-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.57-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 76 new highs and 194 new lows.
Nov 21 (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Monday the real-world impact of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hikes is likely greater than what its short-term rate target implies. Compared to the current target rate, she added, "financial markets are acting like it is around 6%." Daly weighed in as Fed officials have continued to beat the drum for further rate rises aimed at lowering the highest levels of inflation in 40 years. The central bank has lifted its short-term target from a near-zero level in March. In economic projections released in September, Fed policymakers penciled in a mid-4% target rate for next year.
Morning Bid: Bucking the trend
  + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
With an anxious look at China's worsening COVID surge, the U.S. dollar appears revitalized just as speculators turn against it for the first time this year. Peak interest rates, peak COVID, peak energy all get discussed as themes for 2023, along with recession risks, a return of bonds and a cresting of the supercharged dollar - which has already given back almost half its near 20% surge this year. With one eye on Federal Reserve meeting minutes later in the week, futures markets continue to nudge peak Fed rates next year further above the 5% level. Also anxious about the unfolding property bust, China's central bank and banking and insurance regulator said domestic banks should step up credit support for the economy. The dollar also got a lift from the widening crypto shock, with bitcoin falling back below $16,000 on Monday.
Shares of Target Corp (TGT.N) tumbled 12% after the big-box retailer forecast a surprise drop in holiday-quarter sales. Micron Technology (MU.O) shares dropped over 7% after the company said it would reduce memory chip supply and make more cuts to its capital spending plan. The S&P 500 information technology sector (.SPLRCT) dropped 1.3%, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index (.SOX) sank over 4%. Elsewhere in retail, shares of Lowe's (LOW.N) rose over 3% after the home improvement company raised its annual profit forecast. The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 54 new highs and 110 new lows.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoSummarySummary Companies October retail sales rise more than expectedTarget's dull outlook weighs on retailersMicron's supply cut triggers chip selloffIndexes: Dow up 0.05%, S&P down 0.51%, Nasdaq down 1.10%Nov 16 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on Wednesday as a grim outlook from Target spurred fresh concerns for retailers heading into the crucial holiday season, while Micron's supply cut triggered a selloff in the chip sector. Target Corp (TGT.N) tumbled as much as 17% in early trading as a pullback in consumer spending despite heavy discounting cut its third-quarter profit by half. Despite the sales warning from Target, data showed U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in October, boosted by purchases of motor vehicles and suggesting that consumer spending remained stable. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.73-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 2.23-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded three new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 50 new highs and 104 new lows.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said Wednesday she expects the central bank to raise interest rates at least another percentage point, and possibly more, before it can pause to evaluate how the inflation fight is going. Thus far, the Fed has hiked the fed funds rate, which spills over into a slew of other consumer debt products, six times, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point moves. Traders see the central bank adding another 0.5 percentage point when it meets again in mid-December, then moving a bit higher before stopping around the 4.75%-5% range. The Fed is using its primary tool of interest rate increases to right inflation that still is around its highest level in more than 40 years. Daly said she expects higher rates to continue to have an impact on the economy and bring inflation back in line.
Nov 10 (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Thursday said that a slowdown in October in consumer inflation is "good news," but "one month does not a victory make," she said, adding that the Fed will be "resolute" in bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal. Reporting by Ann Saphir;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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