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Financial markets have been engaged in a growing debate over the risks that lurk in Treasurys, with prominent voices raising doubts. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn March, a Richard Bernstein Advisors note said spreads on credit default swaps have climbed for Treasurys since since 2011, when the federal government was issued its first credit downgrade. Then came this spring's debt-ceiling drama and the US credit downgrade in August from Fitch, which cited the rising debt burden and political dysfunction. If a downgrade follows, then US debt wouldn't be in the safest category for default risk at any of the three major ratings agencies. Several auctions for long-dated Treasurys have seen weak demand, and buyers are demanding higher compensation for the risk of carrying Treasurys.
Persons: , Moody's, they've, Mohamed El, Erian, Asset's Seema Shah, Treasurys, Richard Bernstein, Gennadiy Goldberg isn't Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Dallas Federal, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Fitch, Penn Wharton Budget, Securities Locations: Treasurys, there's, US
CNN —Manchester United’s nightmare season continued on Wednesday night after it was stunned in the Champions League by Copenhagen in a seven-goal thriller. So I can’t make any criticism on the team for that.”Ten Hag looks on during the Champions League game against Copenhagen. James Gill - Danehouse/Getty ImagesAfter an adversity-filled few weeks, Wednesday looked like it might have been the rebirth of Manchester United under the Dutchman. Copenhagen players celebrate after beating Manchester United. Maja Hitij/Getty ImagesBardghji became the youngest player to score a Champions League goal against Manchester United, aged 17 years and 358 days.
Persons: Rasmus Højlund, Marcus Rashford, Erik ten, , James Gill, Højlund’s, Copenhagen’s Elias Jelert, Rashford, Donatas Rumšas, Paul Scholes, Owen Hargreaves, Maja Hitij, I’m, Mohamed Elyounoussi, Diogo Gonçalves, United, Harry Maguire’s, Bruno Fernandes, Lukas Lerager, Bardghji, Fernandes, , it’s Organizations: CNN, Manchester, Champions League, Copenhagen, Galatasaray, Bayern Munich, Premier League, Manchester City, Devils, League, Newcastle United, Manchester United, England, United, TNT Sports, Leicester, Luton Locations: Copenhagen, Brighton, Crystal, Portuguese
Inflation will drop sharply, but prices won't get back to the Fed's 2% target soon, Mohamed El-Erian said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe economy will soon see a sharp drop in inflation – but that still won't be enough to return it to the central bank's target, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. Headline inflation accelerated 3.7% year-per-year in September, slightly above the expected 3.6% clip. Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated 4.1% year-per-year, in-line with economists' forecasts. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate 3.28% year-per-year, while core inflation is expected to remain mostly level at 4.16%, according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, , Goldman Sachs, Neel Kashkari, Powell Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Allianz, Federal, Minneapolis, of Labor Statistics, Cleveland
"The red card changes everything," a beleaguered Ten Hag told TNT Sports. "We controlled the game until the red card. The night marked the first Champions League loss for United in which they led by two or more goals. It was their first defeat after taking a two-goal lead in all competitions since a 5-3 loss to Leicester City in September 2014. The defeat spoiled a feel-good return to Copenhagen for Hojlund, who was born in the Danish capital and whose younger brothers Emil and Oscar both play for Copenhagen.
Persons: Marcus Rashford, Rasmus Hojlund, Erik, Hojlund, Scott McTominay's, Kamil Grabara, Rashford, Elias Jelert, Mohamed Elyounoussi, Harry Maguire's, Diogo Goncalves, Andre Onana, Bruno Fernandes, Lukas Lerager, Rasmus Falk's, Roony Bardghji, Emil, Oscar, Lori Ewing, Toby Davis Organizations: COPENHAGEN, Manchester United, League, FC Copenhagen, United, Hag, TNT Sports, Galatasaray, Bayern Munich, Copenhagen, of, Champions League, Man City, Leicester City, Thomson Locations: Copenhagen, Hojlund
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe cannot have a Fed that is reacting to yesterday's data all the time, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, why he believes the four most important central banks effectively called a 'time out' on policy action over the last two weeks and should use the strategy wisely, economic outlook, and more.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge
CNN —As Israel continues its fourth week of intense bombardment of the besieged Gaza strip, huge crowds of protesters have gathered to call for a ceasefire in Washington, D.C. as well as in other capital cities around the globe. In addition to an “immediate ceasefire,” the protesters are also calling for an end to US military aid to Israel and an end to the blockade on Gaza. Israeli authorities have rebuffed calls for a ceasefire, saying no ceasefire would be possible until all hostages are freed. Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty ImagesDemonstrators take to the streets across the worldIn addition to Washington, D.C., pro-Palestinian protesters are also marching in other major cities across the world Saturday to demand a ceasefire. In New York last week, hundreds of protesters from a Jewish organization calling for a ceasefire were arrested at Grand Central Station.
Persons: Israel, , Iman Abid, Thompson, Joe Biden, “ Biden, Biden, Celal, Mohamed el Kurd, , Macklemore, , “ I’m, I’m, Yara Shoufani, ” Shoufani, Abid, Olivier Douliery, George Floyd, don’t Organizations: CNN, Organizers, US, Palestinian, Washington D.C, International People’s Assembly, Anadolu Agency, People’s, Palestinian Youth Movement, , Israel, Congress, Getty, Washington , D.C, Met Police, Palestine Solidarity Campaign, London’s Metropolitan Police, IDF, Grand Central, Port, KABC Locations: Gaza, Washington ,, White, Palestine, Israel, Palestinian, U.S, AFP, Manchester, Oxford, Newcastle, Liverpool, Europe, Latin America, Paris, France, Berlin, Germany, Santiago, Chile, Caracas, Venezuela, Philadelphia, New York, Oakland
Mohamed Aly El-Erian, chief economic advisor for Allianz SE, during a Bloomberg Television interview in London, UK, on Monday, Sept. 25, 2023. El-Erian spoke alongside former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and economist Michael Spence, his co-authors for their book Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesAs the Israel-Hamas war draws into into its fourth week, the risks to the global economy are rising, economist Mohamed el-Erian said Monday. The impact on global markets in response to the onset of the war was initially limited, as investors first assessed that the conflict was contained. "It is terrible in terms of economic prospects for the epicenter for the war," she said.
Persons: Mohamed Aly El, Erian, Gordon Brown, Michael Spence, Chris Ratcliffe, Mohamed el, CNBC's Dan Murphy, Israel, Kristalina Georgieva Organizations: Allianz, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, AIM, Federal, International Monetary Fund Locations: London, Israel, Gaza, Dubai, Iran, Lebanon
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBuyers are hesitant in view of what's happening to the supply of government debt: Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the state of the economy, volatility in the Treasury market, and more.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge, Treasury
The strong GDP report isn't a sign the US has dodged a recession, Mohamed El-Erian said. High interest rates still pose a big threat to households, business, and the US government. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile the GDP numbers underscore US "exceptionalism," El-Erian said, high interest rates are impacting all corners of the economy, and that's something to watch out for. "Secondly, what's been happening in the interest rate market is really problematic. Expecting interest rates to remain higher for the foreseeable future, the bond market has witnessed a historic sell-off in recent months.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, , it's, I've Organizations: Service, Fed, Treasury
The Treasury market seems to be losing its appeal as a safe-haven investment, Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC. Assets that aren't usually deemed as risk-free, such as bitcoin and equities, are becoming the new safe havens. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Treasury market is losing its appeal as a safe haven, Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Thursday. Traders' faith in the bond market has only plummeted since, amid the fear of higher interest rate risks, El-Erian said. Speaking with CNBC, he acknowledged that any long-term lack of Treasury buyers could force the Fed to begin adding bond assets to its balance sheet.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, , outpace Treasurys, resiliency Organizations: Treasury, CNBC, Service, Traders, Federal Reserve Locations: Israel, bitcoin
CNN —Manchester United relied on two unlikely heroes – goalkeeper André Onana and defender Harry Maguire – in a much-needed Champions League victory against FC Copenhagen. Onana's penalty save denied Copenhagen late in the game. The Cameroonian international has made several errors since joining United this season, including in a Champions League defeat against Bayern Munich last month. The penalty save went some way to atoning for those mishaps, and Onana was duly mobbed by his teammates immediately after his heroics. “I’m very pleased, it was a narrow escape as we needed to win,” ten Hag told reporters after the match.
Persons: André Onana, Harry Maguire –, United’s, Sir Bobby Charlton, Charlton, Erik ten Hag, Diogo Gonçalves, Mohamed Elyounoussi’s, Lukas Lerager’s, Onana, Rasmus Højlund, Christian Eriksen, Kamil Grabara’s, Jan Kruger, Alejandro Garnacho, Grabara, United, Maguire, , Scott McTominay, Jordan Larsson, “ I’m, Hag, Dave Thompson, Organizations: CNN, Manchester United, League, FC Copenhagen, Old, United, , Copenhagen, Cameroonian, Bayern Munich, Champions League, Galatasaray, Bayern, Turkish, Manchester City Locations: Old Trafford, Copenhagen, atoning
"At the current 8% mortgage rate, mortgage payment[s] are 38% of median income," Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said. The National Association of Realtors measures affordability through its 34-year old Housing Affordability Index, or HAI. And even if home prices do the decline, that trend won't be sustainable unless America builds millions of more homes. And spreads will likely remain extra-wide until short-term interest rates drop below the rates on longer-term treasuries, Duncan said. "Mortgage rates will not go back to 3% – we'll be lucky if we get back to 5," Yun said.
Persons: , John Burns, maven Mohamed El, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Mark Zandi, That's, Doug Duncan, Fannie, Duncan, Daryl Fairweather, They've, Fairweather, they've, Freddie Mac, , Zandi, it's Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, NAR, Redfin, Allianz, America, Federal Reserve, realtors, Builders, Fed Locations: Florida, Austin , Texas, Boise , Idaho, Fannie Mae, America, New York, California, Phoenix, Tampa, Louisville, Indianapolis, Chicago
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market has lost its 'policy, technical and economic' anchors, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, surging Treasury yields, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge
The Treasury bond market is headed for an unknown destination, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in the Financial Times. "The US bond market is losing its strategic footing, whether in economics, policy, or technical aspects." AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Treasury bond market is headed for the unknown as it sheds key anchors, economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote in the Financial Times. "The US bond market is losing its strategic footing, whether in economics, policy, or technical aspects," he said. But the continued resilience of the bond market is not something investors should take for granted, he warned.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, Organizations: Treasury, Financial Times, Service, Federal Reserve, Allianz, US, Treasury Department
Iran becoming embroiled in the crisis would be bad news for the US economy, according to analysts. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementIran becoming embroiled in the crisis gripping the Middle East could have disastrous knock-on effects for the US economy, analysts have warned. So this is why the big question for the markets and for the economy is whether you get escalation," he added.
Persons: , Brent, LPL, Quincy Krosby, Pierre Andurand, David Donabedian, Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: Service, West Texas, Wall, CIBC Private Wealth, Treasury Locations: Israel, Iran, Tel Aviv, Tehran, Hamas, Ukraine, Russia, China
Insider Today: Market's crash landing
  + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +9 min
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The core question it presents is whether personal AI devices could have the same impact that the iPhone had on the tech industry. Meta's Responsible AI team shrank amid layoffs and restructuring. Yet the team tasked with ensuring that new AI tech was "fair and inclusive" is half the size it was in 2021. Yet the team tasked with ensuring that new AI tech was "fair and inclusive" is half the size it was in 2021.
Persons: , Benjamin Netanyahu, Insider's Matthew Fox, Mohamed El, Matthew, Jerome Powell, hasn't, mavens, Izzy Englander, Citadel's Ken Griffin, Point72, Steve Cohen, Phil McCarten, Dave Kotinsky, Shaw, Victor Virgile, Arantza Pena Popo, Bella Hadid, John Lennon, Ben Shelton, Sharon Osbourne, William Hanson, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Hamas, Saturday, Israeli, Citadel, federal, Tech, Peoples, Indian Heritage Locations: Israel, D.E, Cupertino, China, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Hawaii, Alabama, Dakota, Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, London, New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe key question for markets is whether the Israel-Hamas conflict is contained: Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict and geopolitical tensions, and more.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge Locations: Israel
Investors face a triple threat that in the past have been consistent with trouble, economist Mohamed El-Erian said Monday. "Historically, those three things happening break something ," El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz and president of Queens' College Cambridge, said during a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "They tend to break something in the financial system, and the market concern is that we haven't even finished with interest rate risk." US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yield - YTD The U.S. bond market was closed Monday for Columbus Day. "The big question for the markets and for the economy is whether you get escalation," El-Erian said.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: U.S ., Allianz, Queens ' College Cambridge, CNBC, Columbus Day Locations: Gaza, Treasuries, Israel
The surge in numbers leaving Egypt in recent years coincides with Egypt's worsening economy. The pandemic hit Egypt's vital tourist industry and the Ukraine war made investors more risk averse, driving them away from Egyptian markets. MINIBUS TO LIBYAThe Egyptian authorities have largely stopped migrant boat departures from Egypt's north coast since 2016. More migrant boats now leave from eastern Libya, close to Egypt, than from the west in the divided nation. 'COUNTRIES IN CRISIS'President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and other Egyptian officials say Egypt is doing what it can to halt the migrant flow.
Persons: Fatma, MIT SUHAYL, Waleed el, Degwy, Mohamed el, Muammar Gaddafi, you'd, Adel Ghannam, Mit Suhayl, Mohamed, Abdel Fattah al, Naela Gabr, Mostafa Abdel Salam, Hala, Nafisa Eltahir, Aidan Lewis, Edmund Blair Organizations: REUTERS, MIT, Reuters, European, Thomson Locations: Suhayl, Greece, Sharqia governorate, Egypt, Libya, Italy, Nile Delta, Europe, Ukraine, LIBYA, Egypt's, Libyan, Sudan
The US's chances of avoiding a recession just got smaller, according to Mohamed El-Erian. The New York Fed has priced in a 56% chance of a recession happening by September 2024. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere are two reasons why America's odds of avoiding a recession may be dwindling, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. There is a material risk of this leading to higher inflation for a broader range of goods and services," El-Erian wrote. "While markets are adjusting fast to higher rates, that of the real economy is at much earlier phase with now a much bumpier road ahead."
Persons: Mohamed El, , Erian, there's, they've Organizations: New York Fed, Service, Allianz, Federal Reserve, Financial, Treasury, West Texas, Energy, of Labor Statistics Locations: El, Brent
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMohamed El-Erian: This is a time when you need the supply side to be more flexibleMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest economic and market trends, why he thinks the recent government shutdown drama narrows the scope for the type of legislation needed to maintain high economic growth and genuine financial stability, and more.
Persons: Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge
But there are signs that both supply and demand will bring prices back down in the coming months. AAA reported this week that the average price for a gallon of gas in the US was $3.88. AdvertisementAdvertisementAn atypical spike in pricesThe increase in gas prices is unusual, as we typically see some relief after the summer surge as demand wanes. If true, the worries about the impact of rising gas prices on consumer spending and inflation are overblown. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn recent years, with oil prices closer to $70 a barrel, gas prices have typically been close to $3 a gallon.
Persons: Mohamed el, Saudi Arabia's, Mohamed Oun, there's, Jorge León, Mike Wirth, we've, hasn't, Wirth, Grace Smith, David Kelly, We're, Kelly, Citi's, Ed Morse Organizations: Service, AAA, Allianz, Saudi, Reuters, Rystad Energy, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Energy Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Chevron, Bloomberg, Denver, MediaNews, Getty, Morgan Asset Management, Citigroup, CNN Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Wall, Silicon, California, Clearwater Beach, Tampa , Florida, Libya, Ukraine, Brazil, Canada, Venezuela, Guyana
Close to 4,000 people died in the floods and 9,000 more are still unaccounted for, according to the World Health Organization. Schools-turned-shelters in Derna list the names of their inhabitants on their doors to help people like Abu Bakr. Piles of cars and trees brought by the water block streets in Derna. If you make problems, then you become suspicious.”“I hope to wake up one day (and) find the city still standing. Yet, in streets ravaged by the floods, residents of the buildings still standing were adamant on staying in their homes.
Persons: Sarah El Sirgany, CNN Abu Bakr, Abu, ” Karima, Salma, who’s, , , ” Salma, Agilah Saleh, ” Mohamed Eljarh, Eljarh, Moftah, Hanshiry, Derna Organizations: CNN, World Health Organization, Local, Schools, Facebook, Libyan National Army Locations: Libyan, Derna, Abu Bakr, Libya, Salem el
Ahmed Elumami | ReutersStorm Daniel has left Libya, a country grappling with conflict and economic crisis for over a decade, in catastrophe. We need specialized and experienced rescue teams," Mohamed Elkwafi, a volunteer with the Eastern Libyan National Army Security Units in Derna, told CNBC. A man sits on a damaged car, after a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Libya, in Derna, Libya September 12, 2023. Libya's reconstructionThe Central Bank of Libya convened an emergency meeting last Thursday to discuss support for the impacted areas. General view of flood water covering the area as a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Al-Mukhaili, Libya September 11, 2023, in this handout picture.
Persons: Ahmed Elumami, Reuters Storm Daniel, Mohamed Elkwafi, Storm Daniel, Moammar Gadhafi, Esam Omran, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, Kristalina Georgieva Organizations: Reuters, UN, UNDP, CNBC, World Health Organization, International Organization for, Maxar Technologies, Eastern Libyan National Army Security, Government of National Unity, Fetori, Government of National, Central Bank of, Bank, Monetary Fund, IMF, surveilling Locations: Libya, Derna, Libyan, Soussa, Benghazi, Albayda, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, North Africa, Tripoli, Central Bank of Libya, Africa, surveilling Libya, Mukhaili
Derna, Libya CNN —It’s quiet at the Tartoba cemetery outside the Libyan city of Derna, despite the presence of dozens of volunteers. The school principal volunteered at his town’s cemetery after the floods struck Derna last week. Close to 4,000 people have perished in Derna after heavy rainfall and two collapsed dams caused ferocious floods, according to WHO figures. Akram al-Kawwash (left) and Abdallah al-Sheikh have not been able to find the bodies of their family members in Derna. He searched the wreckage, hoping to find his family members, but he found only the bodies of neighbors and a few survivors.
Persons: Libya CNN —, Mohamed el, , Sarah Sirgany, ” Sharwy, Akram al, Abdallah al, Sheikh, , ” Abdallah al, ” Kawwash Organizations: Libya CNN, CNN, WHO Locations: Derna, Libya, Libyan
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