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☆ Morning Bid: Oil soothes but jobs dictate
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. crude oil has recoiled almost 9% this week and prices have lost almost 14% peak-to-trough since last Thursday's high above $95 per barrel. The year-on-year oil price is now falling again and tracking losses of 5%. Copper prices fell to their lowest of the year on Thursday and core commodity indexes are back at August levels. All of which sees U.S. bond yields retain an uneasy calm into the jobs numbers. Implied rates from Fed futures markets pulled back the chances of another hike in the cycle to less than 50%.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Mike Dolan, Mary Daly, Kevin McCarthy, Donald Trump, Jim Jordan, Janet Yellen's, Christopher Waller, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, ADP, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, St, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Tesla, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Federal Reserve, Challenger, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Morocco, Canada

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy bond bounce on soft jobs and oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Although both oil and bond yields calmed somewhat overnight, U.S. crude plunged by more than $5 per barrel on Wednesday. The tentative bond bid and shifting interest rate picture stopped the rot in stock markets too, with Wall St stocks rallying on Wednesday and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) staging its biggest daily gain since August. But in a sign of the nervousness, European stock markets stalled again and Wall St futures were back in the red. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Lamb Weston, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Wall, Metro Bank, U.S, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Treasury, Brands, Constellation Brands, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, York

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. A near-miss on a debt ceiling showdown in the Spring led to the loss of another Triple-A sovereign credit rating. A fiscal adjustment akin to the one enacted in 1993 would be enough to do that again over 5 years. "However, this looks unlikely anytime soon given congressional gridlock, a lack of political attention to deficit reduction and the upcoming 2024 election," it concluded. On current poll readings at least, next year's election will do nothing to end the fiscal war.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, it's, Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, Erik Nielsen, what's, Stephen Jen, Jen, Trump, Biden, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, William Maclean Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Presidential, AAA, Democrat, Biden, Trump, Congress, Ukraine, Treasury, Republican, Reuters, GRIDLOCK, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, loggerheads, Russia, Ukraine, United States

☆ Morning Bid: Bond steamroller flattens all
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. That's all on top of the ongoing rethink of the Fed's long-term rate horizon and increasingly high-pressure economy. Hit from all sides, the Treasury market is simply in ructions - catalysed perhaps by technical, speculative and positioning factors too. Ten-year yields hit a whopping 4.88% early on Wednesday - an increase of 80 basis points in little over a month. And implied volatility in the bond market (.MOVE) hit its highest since May.

Persons: Florence Lo, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Jeffrey Schmid, St, Louis Fed, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Mehmet Simsek, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Congress, riven, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Treasury, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of New, P Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Kansas City Fed, Turkish, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Washington, Asia, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Kansas, London

☆ Morning Bid: This Fed's not for turning
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. That thought was echoed by Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, who said: "I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year." Either way, this is not the sound of a Fed who thinks the inflation battle is won. Fed hawkishness, however, has kept futures markets pricing a 50-50 chance of another quarter point rate hike to the 5.50-5.75% range by year-end. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Dolan, they've, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Michael Barr, hawkishness, Raphael Bostic, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Institute, Supply, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Big Tech, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Treasury, McCormick, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: October market fillip as government stays open
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. U.S. Treasury yields, whose relentless rise of late has been at the heart of market disturbances as it prices "higher for longer" interest rates, pushed higher again on Monday too. Ten-year yields were up five basis points to 4.62% - just shy of last week's 16-year peak of 4.69%. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:* US Sept manufacturing surveys by ISM and S&P Global. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, John Williams, Fitch, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Democratic, Republican, Ukraine, Treasury, Bank of Japan, of, Petroleum, Reuters, P Global, Cleveland Fed, New York Fed, Tech, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Chicago, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Russia, OPEC, China, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, York

☆ Morning Bid: Spiky quarter ends in uneasy market calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. At 4.53% on Friday, the 10-year benchmark was some 15 basis points off Thursday's peak and two-year yields fell back to their lowest since Sept. 18. Some optimism from Beijing about a possible year-end summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden helped. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* US August PCE inflation gauge, personal income and spending. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Thursday's, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Lifeng, Federal Reserve's, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, it's, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, John Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Organization of, Petroleum, Wall Street Journal, Federal, Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, HK, Reuters, Mercedes, Benz, Chicago, University of, Louis Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Washington, Hong Kong, Nio

☆ Morning Bid: Oil spike delivers coup de grace to dire Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A nighttime view of the Torrance Refinery, an oil refinery operated by PBF Energy, in Torrance, California, U.S., March 10, 2022. The U.S. Treasury completes more than $130 billion of new debt sales this week with another 7-year note auction later on Thursday. But even though the euro bounced back from 2023 lows today, there was better news on the inflation front from Europe. As China's markets headed for the Golden Week holidays next week, stocks there were in the red too - with Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) hitting its lowest for the year so far. * U.S. Treasury auctions 7-year notes, 4-week bills* U.S. corporate earnings: Nike, Accenture, CarmaxReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsEditing by Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Bing Guan, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, it's, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Thomas Barkin, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Torrance Refinery, PBF Energy, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Micron Technology, Nvidia, Kansas, Fed, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, Accenture, Carmax Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Torrance, Torrance , California, U.S, Washington, United States, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Markets catch breath after bruising recoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China's markets will also be disrupted by Golden Week holidays next week. Ten-year Treasury yields hit another 16-year high at 4.56% on Tuesday before dialling back a bit on Wednesday, with 10-year real yields hitting 14-year peaks at 2.24%. Risk spreads in junk bond and overseas sovereign bond markets are also creeping higher again, with exchange-traded U.S. junk bond funds hitting their lowest since May and Italy's government bond yield premium over Germany widening too. Worrying for many investors this week has been how bond yields have climbed despite weaker economic signals and how stock and bond losses are correlating again. World markets were more mixed, with China's bourses managing some gains ahead of the big holiday week.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell's, Neel Kashkari, shakeout, Shorter, China's bourses, Michelle Bowman, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Fed, Golden, Nasdaq, Big Tech, U.S . Federal Trade Commission, Costco, China Evergrande, HK, United, Treasury, Micron, Paychex Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Germany, United States

☆ Morning Bid: Bond crush stifles markets as $134 billion hits
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The yield spike has supercharged the U.S. dollar worldwide - both a reflection and aggravator of mounting financial stress far and wide. As Deutsche Bank notes, this is historically significant territory as the average of the 10-year yield going back to 1799 is around 4.50%. The Treasury sells $48 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $49 billion in five-year paper on Wednesday and $37 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday. Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the Fed probably needs to raise borrowing rates further. Private sector bankers are starting to brace for the worst, with JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon reported overnight as warning: "I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7% (Fed rates)."

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Mike Dolan, South Korea's, Sterling, haven't, Neel Kashkari, Said Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon, Christine Lagarde, China Evergrande, Michelle Bowman, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Bank of Japan, South, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Minneapolis Fed, Chicago Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Dallas Fed's, Chicago Fed's, HK, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Costco, Cintas, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, U.S, Wall St, Asia, Europe, Philadelphia, Washington

☆ Morning Bid: Shutdown, oil, auctions and China rankle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Even before U.S. markets kick off on Monday, China's ongoing property bust threw another curve ball at stocks markets there. Country Garden (2007.HK) fell more than 7% as investors nervously watch out for its latest dollar bond coupon payment on Wednesday. Fed aside, there were multiple domestic issues to trouble the horizon - not least a government shutdown next weekend. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields nudged back close to 16-year highs above 4.5% set last week. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Kevin Wurm, Mike Dolan, China Evergrande, Charles Wang Zhonghe, Kevin McCarthy, Morgan Stanley, Neel Kashkari, Christine Lagarde, Isabel Schnabel, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, HK, hawkish U.S, Federal, Republicans, Treasury, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Wall St, China, HK, hawkish, St, Washington, ., California

☆ Morning Bid: Edgy market calm after worst day of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. World stocks captured by MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD0000PUS) recorded their worst day of the year so far - dropping 1.69%. The yen fell back again but the dollar/yen rate remained below Thursday's 2023 high of 148.45. The pound hit its lowest level since March and 10-year British gilt yields fell to their lowest level since July. Elsewhere, oil prices nudged higher again on Friday as concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan Punch, Rupert Murdoch, Lisa Cook, Susan Collins, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Treasury, Sterling, of, Activision Blizzard, Markets Authority, Ubisoft, Cisco Systems, Cisco, Fox Corp, News Corp, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Boston, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Australia, Britain, United States, India

☆ Morning Bid: Fed leaves shoe dangling in policy parade
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

At least eight major central banks are meeting on Thursday. Central banks in South Africa and Turkey are also meeting. Futures now show the implied Fed policy rate for the end of next year at a new cycle high of 4.85% - up a whopping 35 basis points in just over a week. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:* Bank of England policy decision; South Africa Reserve Bank policy decision, Central Bank of Turkey policy decision. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks* Philadelphia Fed's September business survey, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. Aug existing home sales, U.S. Q2 current account estimate.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Robin Brooks, Brooks, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Darden, Christina Fincher Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Swiss National Bank, Bank of, Fed, for International Finance, Treasury, Swiss, Africa Reserve Bank, Central Bank of, European Central Bank, Factset, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Norwegian, Bank of England, South Africa, Turkey, Central Bank of Turkey, Philadelphia

But the essence of the argument is that lower bond volatility ups the amount of cash liquidity flowing around world markets, and vice versa. But it is the incremental movement in this giant pool that arguably matters most for stock markets and asset prices. Even though global liquidity is shrinking as you might expect in the face of rising Western interest rates, central bank balance sheet reduction and a higher dollar, other offsets are significant. But falling bond volatility has likely played a big part in softening the blow too. "The two together have helped overall liquidity conditions - but we are mindful that bond markets are likely to remain volatile and need to be monitored carefully."

Persons: CrossBorder, Mike Dolan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, coy, Treasury, Fed, Bank, People's Bank of, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, punchbowl, People's Bank of China, United States

☆ Morning Bid: Fed vigil sees oil recoil and UK surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Canada's consumer prices raced ahead at an unexpectedly brisk clip last month, but outlier Britain got a positive surprise as inflation there fell back in August. Starts swooned last month, but building permits - which many see as a better gauge of future activity - beat forecasts and pushed higher. Although Asia bourses were in the red earlier, European stocks pushed higher and Wall St futures were positive ahead of the open too. Relief in the oil market pulled two-year Treasury yields back about 5 basis points from two-month highs at 5.12%. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:* U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision, new economic projections and press conference.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Asia bourses, Mills, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Bank of England, Fed, Friday's Bank of Japan, Arm Holdings, U.S, New, . Federal, Bank of Canada, FedEx, United Nations General Assembly, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Housing, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, New York City, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Messy market mood as oil irks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Model of Oil barrels are seen in front of rising stock graph in this illustration, July 24, 2022. The crude spur is more supply than demand related and most fingers point to the latest output cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Headline inflation rates are already backing up as a result of the energy price rebound and U.S. gas pump prices rose last week to $3.88 per gallon - the highest since October 2022. Stock markets around the world were mixed to positive and U.S. futures were up a fraction ahead of Wall St's open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, Claudio Borio, Mehmet Simsek, Goldman Sachs, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy, Administration, Federal Reserve, Bank for International, U.S, Economic, American Chamber of Commerce, Stock, Kingfisher, . Federal Reserve, Treasury, Turkey's, Goldman, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Treasuries, China, Shanghai, Europe, Canada, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Dot plots, oil blots and auto strikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A nighttime view of Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into gasoline, diesel fuel, and other refined petroleum products, in Carson, California, U.S., March 11, 2022. But updated quarterly economic and rate projections from its individual policymakers will map out the remainder of the year and 2024. And just like global markets have been discombobulated this month, the central bank will be grappling with low visibility and a plethora of mixed signals. Chief among the irritants for the central banks has been the rebound in crude oil price and the fading annual base effects that have flattered headline disinflation progress this year. Events to watch for on Monday:* U.S. September NAHB Housing Market Survey, July TIC data on foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries* U.S. Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills* European Central Bank Board Member Fabio Panetta speaksReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Bing Guan, Mike Dolan Gatecrashed, That's, Detroit's, Taiwan's, TW, chipmaker, Member Fabio Panetta, Mike Dolan, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Petroleum's, Angeles Refinery, REUTERS, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, University of Michigan's, automakers, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford, chipmakers, China, HK, Survey, Treasury, Central Bank, Member, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Angeles, Carson , California, U.S, Saudi, China

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's trip to China last month had promised some economic and trade detente between the two superpowers now at loggerheads. And none of the 222 funds polled expected China economic growth to be any higher next year than this - mirroring a recent Reuters survey of domestic and overseas banks and investors. As these sorts of surveys go, there's an awful lot in there that could spell "peak gloom". Indeed, shorting China equities was deemed the second "most crowded trade" behind long exposure to supercharged Big Tech stocks. Even if the economy turns, political catalysts for a return to China may be slow in coming.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo's, it's, Jamie Dimon, Jay Clayton, Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton, Willem Sels, Mike Dolan, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, . Commerce, Bank of, Big Tech, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, JPMorgan, Investments, The Ontario Teachers, Caisse, Franklin, HSBC Private Banking, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, loggerheads, Wall, Asia, Silicon Valley, Hong Kong, Temasek, Bridgewater, Blackrock, India, Indonesia, Washington, United States

☆ Morning Bid: Risk and rates moving in tandem
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Or it may just be a series of idiosyncratic news events. Although both stock futures and bond yields edged back a touch again on Tuesday ahead of the bell, the fact they are moving in tandem ahead of a critical week for macro policy is notable. Overseas, European markets held up as this week's European Central Bank meeting is awaited with economists split on its outcome. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Morgan Stanley, Farmer Bros, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Big Tech, Tesla's, Dojo, Apple, chipmaker Qualcomm, Oracle, Reserve, Overseas, Central Bank, HK, Bank of, Smurfit Kappa, Treasury, Cable Corp, Altamira Therapeutics, Lesaka Technologies, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, London, Altamira

☆ Morning Bid: Japan jolt as inflation forks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A man walks past the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 17, 2023. "If we judge that Japan can achieve its inflation target even after ending negative rates, we'll do so," Ueda said. The yen surged 1% against the dollar, knocking the U.S. currency back more generally (.DXY) on the foreign exchange markets. If Japan's does tighten further by yearend, it comes as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rate hike campaigns are coming to halt. News of an expected return of headline Chinese consumer price inflation to positive territory last month and above-forecast August lending data helped mainland shares (.CSI300) higher, with the yuan bouncing back from 16-year lows.

Persons: Issei Kato, Mike Dolan, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Alibaba, Daniel Zhang, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, U.S, Tokyo Stock, Nikkei, Global, Treasury, yearend, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Fed, CPI, OpenAI, Wall Street, SoftBank Group, underwriters, Bank of England, Oracle, Graphics, Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Hong Kong, Ottawa

☆ Morning Bid: Markets find feet after Apple topples
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

People walk near an Apple logo outside its store in Shanghai, China September 8, 2023. The stock appeared to stabilize in out-of-hours trade on Friday and Morgan Stanley analysts claimed China's iPhone bans would at most hit Apple revenues by about 4%. The upshot was the rates market calmed a bit - with the odds on another Fed hike in the cycle falling back below 50% despite the red hot jobless claims readout. That helped Treasury yields <US10YT+RR> fall back too, aided by the stock market wobble and an oil price coming off the boil. The stock exchange there halted trading in both securities and derivatives markets due to a black rainstorm warning.

Persons: Aly, Mike Dolan, Apple sideswipe, Morgan Stanley, We've, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Federal, Huawei, New, Fed, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, San Francisco Fed, Kroger Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, U.S, India, Asia, Hong Kong, United States, New Delhi

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Rising U.S. business bankruptcies may raise a red flag in what otherwise appears like an economy now impervious to rising interest rates. Commenting on the numbers, insolvency research organisation ABI blamed elevated interest rates, price inflation and a resumption of student loan payments as just some of the headwinds causing stress. That partly mirrors some of built-in household resilience to rising rates related to long-term fixed-rate borrowings and still-high cash savings that now earn significantly higher rates of interest now too. And that 10% - accounting for more than 60% of index market cap - had seen no rise in net interest payments so far in the Fed campaign. But creeping insolvencies among the smaller firms - many of whom have been dubbed 'zombies' for years due to their survival solely on low interest rates - may be a better reflection of what's starting to happen at the coalface of the economy.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Albert Edwards, Edwards, Andrew Lapthorne, Russell, NFIB, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Yellow Corp, P Global Market Intelligence, Reuters, Societe Generale, Fed, National Federation of Independent Business, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, midyear

☆ Morning Bid: Transatlantic surprise gap opens up again
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. And the gap between those two gauges, which had halved from July peaks, is starting to yawn wider yet again. Although the steep annual drop in Chinese exports and imports last month was marginally better than forecast, the ongoing funk in activity remains stark and threatens Beijing's overall economic growth target of about 5%. At least six senior Fed officials are in speaking engagements later on Thursday - including Fed board member Michelle Bowman and New York Fed chief John Williams. Events to watch for on Thursday:* U.S. weekly jobless claims, Q2 labor cost and productivity revisions* Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan all speak.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, bourses steadied, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, Joe Biden, Susan Fenton Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, U.S, Federal, Treasury, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Fed, New York Fed, Apple, Beijing, Federal Reserve, Michelle Bowman , New York Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, United States, Europe, China, Brent, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Japan, Asia, Michelle Bowman , New, Atlanta, India, New Delhi

☆ Morning Bid: Restive markets simmer after oil sideswipe
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 20, 2023. That's a moment in the whole disinflation story as it virtually wipes out the negative annual base effect so powerful this year in helping drag headline inflation rates back down. The more complicated inflation picture comes against the week's downbeat business surveys from Europe and Japan. That take was reinforced overnight by a New York Fed study that suggested the theoretical 'neutral' interest rate keeping the economy at equilibrium continued to fall in the second quarter. The energy picture saw Asia and European bourses in the red again, with Japan's Nikkei (.N225) bucking the trend.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan Roiled, Lorie Logan, Susan Collins, Mike Dolan, John Stonestreet Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Bank of Canada, New, New York Fed, NY, Japan's Nikkei, Dallas Federal, Boston Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, That's, Europe, Japan . U.S, New York, Asia, European, Canada

"Further progress is likely to become more difficult as base effects fade, and supply-constraints could drive global energy and food prices higher again." Brent crude prices have risen 27% since mid-year and U.S. crude is up 30%, with U.S. retail pump prices already up almost 10% so far since June. Oil and inflation expectationsReuters GraphicsSLOWING DESCENTAnd alongside creeping worries about rising debt supply, the long end of bond markets has been rattled again by the oil price jump. And this has been a far bigger influence on the inflation trajectory than oil prices per se. Yet, restive crude prices will still cloud a messy and tricky battle with inflation expectations just as policy tightening cycles near an end.

Persons: Brent that's, Christian Keller, Akash Utsav, Andrew Goodwin, there's, George H.W, Jamie Freed Organizations: Brent, UBS, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, Barclays, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, U.S, Treasury, Oxford, Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Russia, tailwind, U.S, Europe, Britain, West, George H.W . Bush

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