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If the projection is correct, it will be the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021, when growth was just shy of 7%. However, policymakers, economists and markets will be focused more on forward-looking signals from an economy that repeatedly has defied expectations. For Q3, GDPNow is projecting growth of 5.4%, with more than half — 2.77 percentage points — to come from consumer spending. That expectation intensified during a brief banking industry crisis in March 2023 that the Fed expected would constrain credit enough to bring about a downturn. Central bank officials have raised rates aggressively while professing to not want to drag the economy into recession.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Joseph LaVorgna, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Ricchiuto, , Quincy Krosby, that's Organizations: Getty, Gross, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities America, Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Mizuho Securities USA, Department, Treasury, LPL Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S
On Friday, the Bank of Japan intervened in the Japanese government bond (JGB) market as the 10-year JGB yield touched a decade high. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) skidded 0.8% to a fresh low since November last year, bringing the weekly loss to a sizeable 3%. "World leaders continue to trek to the Middle East to – if nothing else — delay the onset of any further hostility," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at capital.com. Oil prices are headed for the second weekly gain on supply fears from an escalating regional conflict in the Middle East. "Now we’re talking about not just the Ukraine-Russia conflict, that front, but now you have another front, that’s in the Middle East that has to be satisfied...
Persons: Jerome Powell, Hong, HSI, Joe Biden, Israel, Kyle Rodda, Brent, Powell, Quincy Krosby, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Bank of Japan, Tokyo's Nikkei, Elon, U.S, LPL, Washington, Thomson Locations: East, Middle, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Iran, Yemen, Israel, Ukraine, Russia, U.S
LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5% for the first time since 2007, marking a fresh milestone in a relentless push higher for government borrowing costs. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidFurther signs of resilience in the U.S. economy help explain the latest sell off in Treasuries, as traders have unwound bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon start to lower interest rates. He highlighted what everyone has seen with the strong economic growth data and the retail sales figure that came out. Just like how the market forced the Fed to stop quantitative tightening in 2019, it might be forcing the Fed to rethink QT today.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, MICHAEL SCHULMAN, EL, , NOAH, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, QUINCY KROSBY, Powell Organizations: Treasury, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal, Fed, NORTH Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries, EL SEGUNDO, CALIFORNIA, CHARLOTTE, NC, WISCONSIN, NORTH CAROLINA, Ukraine, Russia
Treasury yields also pressure equities, with the 10-year touching a fresh 16-year high. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks tumbled Wednesday as oil prices jumped and Treasury yields swung up to highs not seen since 2007. If the conflict grows to involve other Middle Eastern states, oil prices are expected to rise, with one estimate forecasting Brent to go as high as $150 a barrel.
Persons: Stocks, Tesla, , Brent, Treasurys, Quincy Krosby, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Netflix, Service, Treasury, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Global, LPL, Tesla, United Airlines Locations: Israel, Gaza, Iran
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) led gains among S&P 500 sectors, although all of the sectors were higher on the day. Third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to have increased 2.2% year-over-year, up from an estimated increase of 1.3% a week earlier, according to LSEG data Friday. At the same time, global leaders are trying to make sure that the Middle East conflict "remains contained," she said. The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 33 new highs and 206 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Charles Schwab, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Johnson, Quincy Krosby, Patrick Harker, Lululemon, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Major U.S, Bank of America, Johnson, Netflix, Dow Jones, York, Philadelphia Fed, Activision Blizzard, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Major, Gaza, Charlotte , North Carolina, Bengaluru
Iran becoming embroiled in the crisis would be bad news for the US economy, according to analysts. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementIran becoming embroiled in the crisis gripping the Middle East could have disastrous knock-on effects for the US economy, analysts have warned. So this is why the big question for the markets and for the economy is whether you get escalation," he added.
Persons: , Brent, LPL, Quincy Krosby, Pierre Andurand, David Donabedian, Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: Service, West Texas, Wall, CIBC Private Wealth, Treasury Locations: Israel, Iran, Tel Aviv, Tehran, Hamas, Ukraine, Russia, China
He said in the short-term resources could be diverted if the conflict expands, such as staff at tech companies being called up as military reservists. "They will probably increase the investment in AI," Krosby said. "It could bolster support for more financial resources for tech for the military, which then ultimately transitions to the private sector tech companies," Krosby added. The tech sector has shown resilience in the past, overcoming a number of conflicts with Hamas in Gaza. Apjit Walia the Managing Director at DVN Capital said the Israeli tech sector "has historically bounced back from geopolitical tragedies."
Persons: Amir Cohen, Israel, Jack Ablin, Quincy Krosby, Jensen Huang, Benjamin Netanyahu, LPL's Krosby, Krosby, DVN Capital, Max A, Cherney, Mica Rosenberg, Steven Scheer, Kenneth Li, Megan Davies, Jamie Freed Organizations: Intel, REUTERS, FRANCISCO, Tech, Hamas, Cresset Wealth, Financial, Intel Corp, Sunday, Nvidia, Tel, Semiconductor, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, IBM, Google, Facebook, DVN, Thomson Locations: Petah Tikva, Tel Aviv, Israel, JERUSALEM, Gaza, Charlotte , North Carolina, United States, Silicon Valley, Kiryat Gat, Apjit, Francisco, New York, Jerusalem
Here's what you need to know about the big jobs report Friday
  + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
A strong jobs market could equal a weak stock market if current trends hold up. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will provide a major test for Wall Street, which has been on edge all week about a surprisingly resilient labor picture. The fear is that if the tight labor market holds up, the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates high and jeopardize the U.S. economy at a critical time. "Clearly the market is hoping for a headline number that reinforces a labor market that has slowed but remains resilient." Fed officials watch the metric closely as an indicator of tightness in the labor market.
Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Stocks Organizations: Wall, Federal Reserve, LPL, Labor Department, Labor, Treasury
US stocks moved higher on Wednesday, while bond yields declined Tuesday's highs. ADP reported private payrolls climbed 89,000 in September, below forecasts of 160,000. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks moved higher on Wednesday, as the 10-year US Treasury yield retreated slightly after hitting 16-year highs.
Persons: payrolls, , Dow Jones, Dan North, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Treasury, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Allianz Trade North, JPMorgan, Dow Jones Locations: Allianz Trade North America
Stocks are coming off a brutal two-month stretch, and Wall Street is divided on what comes next. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is coming off back-to-back rocky months, and Wall Street is split on what could be coming next for investors. And Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire founder of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday that Treasury yields suggest it's time to start worrying about a severe downturn.
Persons: Stocks, Fundstrat, , Quincy Krosby, Jay Woods, Woods, jitters, Kevin McCarthy, Gene Goldman, Goldman, Tom Lee, Lee, Marko Kolanovic, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Freedom Capital, Treasury, Cetera Investment Management, CNBC, DoubleLine
Brendan McDermid | ReutersThat cracking sound in financial markets isn't the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. "The cost of capital is going up, companies are going to have to refinance at a higher rate." That sentiment was buttressed this week, when at least four central bank officials either endorsed hikes or indicated that higher rates would be staying in place for an extended period. Consumers, for one, are feeling the squeeze of higher rates on everything from mortgages to credit cards to personal loans. "Now, at some point, my guess is that markets will eventually get to cheap enough levels where you'll bring buyers in.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Larry McDonald, Treasurys, McDonald, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, I've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Treasury, LPL, Labor Department, Wall, P Bank ETF, Congressional, Treasury Department, The, White House, National Economic Council, Nikko Securities Locations: New York City, Washington, U.S
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down more than 400 points Tuesday. Bond yields spiked after fresh labor data, which pointed to a still-resilient job market. AdvertisementAdvertisementAfter a strong to the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on pace Tuesday to give up all of its 2023 gains. While the Dow has lagged stronger gains posted by the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq this year, the index was still up about 8% at its 2023 peak in August. The stock market's losses so far in October extend a brutal two-month stretch for investors, with September posting the worst monthly loss of 2023.
Persons: , Quincy Krosby, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab's, Sonders Organizations: Dow Jones, Service, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Labor, Survey, Fed, LPL Locations: New York
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. The U.S. central bank said last month it may hike rates again as it struggles to bring inflation closer to its 2% annual target. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.49 points, or 0.01%, to end at 4,288.54 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 88.45 points, or 0.67%, to 13,307.77. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares were near flat after the electric vehicle maker missed market estimates for third-quarter deliveries. S&P 500 companies report third-quarter results later this month, with analysts expecting earnings to have risen slightly from the year-ago quarter.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Michelle Bowman, Quincy Krosby, Goldman Sachs, Caroline Valetkevitch, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Financial, Investors, Energy, Dow Jones, Nvidia, NextEra Energy, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Bengaluru
Along with the modest inflation gain, consumer spending rose 0.4% on a current-dollar basis. Including food and energy, headline PCE increased 0.4% on the month and 3.5% from a year ago. Inflation on the month was largely driven by energy costs, which accelerated 6.1%, according to Friday's reading. On an annual basis, energy was down 3.6% while food increased 3.1%. The Fed targets inflation at 2% as indicative of a healthy growth rate for the economy.
Persons: Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Reserve, Dow, Commerce Department, LPL, PCE, Traders, CME
And the US economy’s surprising resilience, despite 11 rate hikes, has raised hopes of a soft landing becoming a reality. “I’ve always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome, that there was a path to a soft landing,” he said. But historical records show that a soft landing has only occurred once in the 1990s, or perhaps even a handful of times. The US Commerce Department releases its final estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product. The US Commerce Department releases August data on household income, spending, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, “ I’ve, , , Powell’s, ” “ Jerome Powell, ” Quincy Krosby, Krosby, ” Krosby, Matt Egan, ” Neil Bradley, “ We’ve, Read, Christine Lagarde, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Fed, LPL, CNN, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, European Central Bank, Costco, Global, Board, Survey, US Commerce Department, Micron, Nike, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Carnival Corp, University of Michigan, New York Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington
US stocks fell on Thursday as the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2007. Jobless claims fell to 201,000 last week, signaling the labor market remains tight. The 10-year US Treasury rate jumped to a high of 4.49% on Thursday, representing its highest level since October 2007. "He underscored numerous times that while the Fed remains data dependent and can proceed carefully, but another rate hike remains on the table as the Fed is seemingly wedded towards restoring price stability," LPL Financial strategist Quincy Krosby told Insider. Meanwhile, jobless claims fell to 201,000 last week, the lowest reading since January and below economist estimates of 225,000, signaling the labor market remains tight.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
US stocks plunged on Thursday as bond yields surged following the Fed's policy meeting. The 10-year US Treasury rate jumped to a high of 4.49%, its highest level since October 2007. A potential government shutdown also could be imminent as the House went on recess after failing to pass a funding bill. The 10-year US Treasury rate jumped to a high of 4.49% on Thursday, representing its highest level since October 2007, while the 2-year Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2006. A potential shutdown could occur in October.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Service, Treasury, Republican, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon, Here's
U.S. stock futures inched up Sunday night as investors look toward the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. The broad market index and the Nasdaq both ended the previous trading week in the red, marking their second straight week of losses. However, Krosby believes higher prices could be ahead as the labor market remains strong. September's Housing Market Index data is scheduled to be released. The New York Fed will also be announcing September's Business Leaders Survey results.
Persons: Dow, it's, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed, LPL, PPI, United Auto Workers, UAW, New Locations: Detroit, September's
The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
  + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, , Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 24, 2023. The dollar index's weekly winning streak was its longest since 2014, bolstered by recent data suggesting the U.S. economy is still resilient. Investors are waiting for the U.S. Consumer Price Index reading for August, due Wednesday, especially with oil prices rising. Dollar gains have also prompted a step up in rhetoric from Japanese policymakers growing uncomfortable with the yen's slide. In energy, oil prices rose to a nine-month high as U.S. diesel futures rose and as investors worried about tight oil supplies.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Quincy Krosby, Wall, Masato Kanda, Hirokazu Matsuno, Huw Jones, Heekyong Yang, Shri Navaratnam, Tomasz Janowski, David Evans, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, U.S, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, U.S . Consumer, Financial, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Strong, Charlotte , North Carolina, China, Japan, Brent, London, Seoul
On Wednesday, the ISM reported that its services prices index for August rose to 58.9%, a four-month high and 2.1 points above the July level. That comes on the heels of the August manufacturing prices reading of 48.4%, which was below the dividing line for expansion but still 5.8 points ahead of July's level. Following the services reading, traders in the fed funds futures market increased the odds for a November Fed rate hike to about 53%, according to the CME Group . That coincided with a jump in the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield to 5.033%, and a slide in stocks that sent the S & P 500 down by as much as 0.9%. "With oil and food prices also higher, this [ISM services] report points to a Fed whose job to quell inflation is certainly not yet quite finished."'
Persons: Quincy Krosby, Susan Collins Organizations: Federal Reserve, Institute, Supply, CME Group, Treasury, LPL, Boston
Stocks are looking to maintain momentum in the holiday-shortened week ahead even as Wall Street contends with a seasonally weak period for markets ahead of the Federal Reserve's September rate decision. Some technical indicators have investors hopeful the bullish momentum could continue in the week ahead. For example, the major indexes broke above their respective 50-day moving averages this past week — a sign of improving short-term momentum. Central bank policymakers convene for a two-day meeting starting Sept. 19 and announce their interest rate decision Sept. 20. Week ahead calendar All times are ET.
Persons: Sam Stovall, We've, Ryan Detrick, Quincy Krosby, CFRA, , HSBC's Max Kettner, Savita Subramanian, John Luke Tyner, Carson Group's Detrick, Detrick, FactSet, Kroger Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wall, Dow, Carson Group, Fed, LPL, Bank of America, Aptus Capital Advisors, Labor, PMI, PMI Services, Consumer Credit Locations: U.S, CFRA, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe fast pace of yield growth is hurting variable loan borrowers: LPL Financial's Quincy KrosbyQuincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the impact wage increases have on market stability, why spiking treasury yields add pain to borrowers with variable loans, and the relationship between high wages and price inflation.
Persons: Quincy, Quincy Krosby Organizations: LPL
Market reactions to Powell speech
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
"It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," Powell said. "August has been a difficult month for the market, so it is hungry for news that will help reverse the trend. Investors are hanging on to every word, but the main takeaway is that Powell signaled that the Fed would raise rates if needed. Rather than last year's short but brutal speech, Powell opted for a longer and calmer speech. KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO"On balance, this is a modestly less hawkish speech than markets had feared.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, CHRISTOPHER HODGE, MICHAEL GREEN, ANDRE BAKHOS, CARSTEN BRZESKI, Ann Saphir, Christine, Lagarde, ” JOSEPH LAVORGNA, , ” STUART COLE, ” QUINCY KROSBY, there's, DAVID WAGNER, Jackson, BRIAN JACOBSEN, patting, KARL SCHAMOTTA, Bernanke, Draghi Organizations: U.S . Federal, Federal, NFP, Fed, ING, Kansas City, REUTERS, CHIEF, CPI, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, JERSEY, FRANKFURT, Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, NIKKO, LONDON, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI , OHIO, WISCONSIN, TORONTO
"I just think he's going to play it about as down the middle as possible," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. "He's got to strike that chord that the Fed is going to finish the job. "He's going to want to be a little more hawkish than neutral. But he's not going to deliver what he delivered last year. A Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August's figures will show a noticeable jump.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, Joseph LaVorgna, circumspect, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, He's, It's, Quincy Krosby, he's, Inflation's, Krosby, Patrick Harker, you've, Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson Organizations: Financial, Federal, Getty, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Research, National Economic Council, LPL, Cleveland, San Francisco Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington , DC, circumspect Powell
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