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Mr. Powell’s public calendar shows that he and Mr. Bankman-Fried met as planned. And Mr. Wetjen went on to send the Fed chair two policy papers that FTX had recently published, according to emails obtained through a public records request. “Hope you’re finding these useful!” Mr. Wetjen wrote. According to newly released records, Mr. Wetjen managed to gain access to a range of federal officials. And public calendars show that Mr. Bankman-Fried went on to meet with another top financial regulator, Martin Gruenberg, head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Sam Bankman, ” Mr, Mark Wetjen, Fried, Wetjen, FTX, Hope, Mr, Lael Brainard, Martin Gruenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Fed, White, National Economic Council, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Locations: Washington

PinnedFederal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting on Wednesday, buying themselves more time to assess whether borrowing costs are high enough to weigh down the economy and wrestle inflation under control. Central bankers have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level in 22 years. At least a few officials might stop expecting another quarter-point rate move this year, predicting instead that interest rates have already reached their peak. If, on the other hand, officials expect to lower rates by less in 2024, it could be a signal that policymakers expect inflation to prove more stubborn. Fed officials will release fresh economic forecasts.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ”, Antúlio Bomfim, Powell’s, “, William English Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Trust Asset Management, United Auto Workers, Yale Locations: America, Panama

☆ August Inflation Report Overall Prices Set to Pop, But Details Should Look Better
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

PinnedMany economists think that a cooling job market, with slower pay gains, could pave the way for slower price increases. A recent jump in gas prices probably helped to speed up overall inflation in August, but economists expected a key underlying price measure to grow at a muted pace. Fed officials will closely parse this report, because it is the final major piece of economic data before their Sept. 19-20 monetary policy meeting. Fed officials must decide in coming months whether they need to raise rates again in 2023, and what would merit such a move. The central bank will receive one more Consumer Price Index inflation report before its November gathering, on Oct. 12.

Persons: John C, Williams, Jerome H, Powell, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Ticked Up in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

An employment report set for release on Friday is expected to show that while businesses added fewer jobs in August, the unemployment rate remained very low at 3.5 percent. Even after adjusting for inflation, it was up 0.6 percent, a pop from 0.4 percent in the previous report. inflation was widely expected: Various data points that feed into the number, including the Consumer Price Index inflation report, come out earlier in the month. Fed officials will be watching data over the next few weeks as they consider what to do with interest rates at their meeting on Sept. 20. Policymakers have said that the meeting is a “live” one, meaning that they could either lift interest rates or keep them on hold, but several have suggested that at this point they feel that they can be patient in making a move.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell

☆ Job Openings Dropped in July as Labor Market Cooled
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( J. Edward Moreno | More About J. Edward Moreno | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Labor market data is closely watched by policymakers at the Federal Reserve as they combat stubborn inflation. Background: A surprisingly robust labor market. Many have taken a more optimistic view recently as inflation has begun to moderate alongside a strong labor market. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent in July, a sign that although the labor market is cooling, workers are generally still able to find opportunities. The unemployment data for August will be one of the last labor market pulses Fed policymakers will get before their next meeting on Sept. 19-20.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of, Jackson, Fed, Labor Department Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Wyoming, U.S

☆ Fed Chair’s Message Is Clear: The Fight Against Inflation Isn’t Over
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, pledged during a closely watched speech that his central bank would stick by its push to stamp out rapid inflation “until the job is done” and said that officials stood ready to raise interest rates further if needed. Mr. Powell, who was speaking Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming, said that the Fed would “proceed carefully” as it decided whether to make further policy adjustments after a year and a half in which it had pushed interest rates up sharply. But even as Mr. Powell emphasized that the Fed is trying to balance the risk of doing too much and hurting the economy more than is necessary against the risk of doing too little, he was careful not to take a victory lap around a recent slowing in inflation. His speech hammered home one main point: Officials want to see more progress to convince them that they are truly bringing price increases under control. “The message is the same: It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so,” Mr. Powell said, comparing his speech to a stern set of remarks he delivered at last year’s Jackson Hole gathering.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Jackson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of, Jackson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Wyoming

☆ Why the Stock Market’s Summer Doldrums Are Not a Problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Jeff Sommer | More About Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Briefly put, short-term rates — those embodied in money-market funds as well as credit cards — are a direct consequence of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to reduce inflation. The Fed has been tightening monetary policy, mainly by raising the short-term rates it controls, the best known being the federal funds rate. The downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt by the Fitch Ratings agency also contributed to the run-up in rates on Treasury securities. In addition, the balance of supply and demand in the bond market has been tilting in a way that is contributing to higher rates. The Treasury has been auctioning an unusually large amount of debt, bulking up its resources after the brinkmanship of the debt ceiling crisis this spring.

Persons: Jackson, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Fitch Locations: Japan, China

☆ How Jackson Hole Became an Economic Obsession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Economists? They have Jackson Hole. The world’s most exclusive economic get-together takes place this week in the valley at the base of the Teton mountains, in a lodge that is a scenic 34 miles from Jackson, Wyo. But even more critically, Jackson Hole tends to generate big news. Jerome H. Powell, the current Fed head, has made headlines with each and every one of his Jackson Hole speeches, which has investors waiting anxiously for this year’s.

Persons: Jackson, Rockefeller, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Cannes, Wall Street, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas Locations: Davos, Jackson, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

When Jerome H. Powell spoke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., last year, inflation had recently topped 9 percent and the Fed was raising rates at a breakneck pace to wrestle down price increases. Mr. Powell used the platform to offer a stern warning that central bankers would keep at it until the job was done. Higher rates have cooled the housing market and, together with healing supply chains and cheaper gas prices, lowered inflation notably — to 3.2 percent in July. Instead of warning that the central bank is prepared to push the economy into a recession if that is necessary to calm rapid inflation, Fed officials today are increasingly suggesting that they might pull off what once seemed unlikely: cooling the economy without tanking it. But many economists and investors think that he may be able to strike a slightly less aggressive tone than he did last year.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Jackson

☆ Wall St. Pessimists Are Getting Used to Being Wrong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Joe Rennison | More About Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Beaten as they might be by the stock market’s rally, worriers on Wall Street still question how long it can last. After starting the year with dour warnings about the economy, many investors and analysts have changed their minds. Marquee earnings from some large tech companies, like Meta and Alphabet, helped drive stock prices higher. Consumer-facing companies like Coca-Cola and Unilever that are dependent on households continuing to spend also posted bumper financial results. The benchmark sits roughly 5 percent away from the record it reached in January 2022.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Consumer, Cola, Unilever, Federal Reserve

☆ U.S. Economy Grew at 2.4% Rate in Second Quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Instead, layoffs were mostly contained to a handful of industries, the banking crisis did not spread and even the housing market has begun to stabilize. “The things we were all freaked out about earlier this year all went away,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said on Wednesday that the central bank’s staff economists no longer expected a recession to begin this year. Still, many economists say consumers are likely to pull back their spending in the second half of the year, putting a drag on the recovery. And although unemployment remains low, job growth and wage growth have slowed.

Persons: ”, Michael Gapen, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Tech, Bank of America, Fed, Savings

☆ Soft Landing Optimism Is Everywhere. That’s Happened Before.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation has begun to cool meaningfully, but unemployment remains historically low at 3.6 percent and hiring has been robust. Consumers continue to spend at a solid pace and are helping to boost overall growth, based on strong gross domestic product data released on Thursday. Mr. Powell said that while he was not yet ready to use the term “optimism,” he saw a possible pathway to a relatively painless slowdown. Those rate moves are trickling through the economy, making it more expensive to buy cars and houses on borrowed money and making it pricier for businesses to take out loans. “The prevailing consensus right before things went downhill in 2007, 2000 and 1990 was for a soft landing,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: TD Securities, “ Locations: Washington

☆ Fed raises rates after a pause and leaves door open to more.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years, continuing their 16-month-long campaign to wrestle inflation lower by cooling the American economy. Officials pushed rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, their highest level since 2001, while leaving the door open to further rate increases in the statement announcing their unanimous decision. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, explained the move in a news conference, but offered few hints about how the central bank is thinking about its next steps. Here’s what to know about the Fed’s latest decision:

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal

☆ Here’s What to Watch at the Fed’s July Meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Fed officials will release their decision at 2 p.m., after which Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, will hold a news conference. Policymakers are expected to raise rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent this week, their 11th move since they began to lift borrowing costs in March 2022. Officials ratcheted rates higher rapidly last year but have been slowing their campaign for months, even skipping an adjustment in June after 10 consecutive moves. Fed officials will have plenty of time, and plenty of data to parse, before they release their next rate decision and a fresh set of quarterly economic projections on Sept. 20. Still, investors and Fed watchers in general will be monitoring a few key developments on Wednesday.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve

Fed officials will release their July interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by a news conference with Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair. Policymakers had previously forecast that they might raise rates one more time in 2023 beyond the expected move this week. It expects consumption, which has remained strong, to begin to wane in the coming months as Americans draw down their savings and interest rates increase further. On Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the 20 countries that use the euro currency to the highest level since 2000. But the economic outlook is still relatively weak, and some analysts expect that the European Central Bank is close to halting interest rate increases amid signs that its restrictive policy stance is weighing on economic growth.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: European Central Bank Locations: United States, Germany

☆ A Flood of New Workers Has Made the Fed’s Job Less Painful. Can It Persist?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Labor supply has also received a boost as some demographic groups — including women in their prime working years — have returned to the job market in bigger numbers than anticipated, pushing their employment rates to record highs. That influx has made the Fed’s job a little less painful. Hiring has been able to chug along at a solid clip without further overheating the labor market because workers are becoming available to replace those who are getting snapped up. The expanding supply of workers has allowed the Fed to accept the faster-than-expected hiring without slamming the brakes on the economy even more aggressively. Many investors are betting the decision, which will be announced on Wednesday, could be the Fed’s final move for now.

Persons: —, ” John C, Williams, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Labor, Unemployment, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Employers, Fed Locations: United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ At the Front Lines of the Inflation Fight, Uncertainty Reigns
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-01 | by ( Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

When prices started to take off in multiple countries around the world about two years ago, the word most often associated with inflation was “transitory.” Today, the word is “persistence.”That was uttered repeatedly at the 10th annual conference of the European Central Bank this week in Sintra, Portugal. “It’s been surprising that inflation has been this persistent,” Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said. “We have to be as persistent as inflation is persistent,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said.

Persons: “ It’s, ” Jerome H, Powell, “, ” Christine Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Locations: Sintra , Portugal

☆ Fed Chair Says He Expects Slower Rate Increases to Continue
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said on Thursday that he would expect to continue with a slower pace of interest rate increases after central bankers skipped raising interest rates in June for the first time in 11 policy meetings — but he didn’t rule out that officials could return to back-to-back rate moves. “It may be that we don’t move for a meeting, and then move at a meeting,” Mr. Powell said. Speaking at a conference in Madrid, he reiterated an assertion he made a day earlier that he wouldn’t take future rate increases at consecutive meetings “off the table.” But he added that he would expect a more patient approach to persist. “We did take one meeting where we didn’t move, so that’s in a way a moderation of the pace,” he explained. “So I would expect something like that to continue, assuming the economy evolves about as expected.”Mr. Powell noted, however, that the economy “has a tendency to do something different” than policymakers anticipate.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” Mr, ”, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: Madrid

☆ Top Central Bankers Expect More Rate Increases Amid Stubborn Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Central bankers from the world’s leading economies said on Wednesday that while they had raised interest rates significantly, additional increases would very likely be needed to wrestle inflation back under control given the strength of labor markets. “Although policy is restrictive, it may not be restrictive enough, and it has not been restrictive for long enough,” Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, said. Speaking at the 10th annual conference of the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal, Mr. Powell said that the strong labor market “was pulling the economy” and was a key reason that Fed officials projected two additional rate increases this year. As U.S. workers get promotions and earn higher wages, it’s helping to shore up demand, which is allowing the economy to grow and giving companies the continued ability to raise prices.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, U.S Locations: Sintra , Portugal

☆ Inflation Is Proving Persistent as It Moves Through the Eurozone Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The nature of the inflation problem in the eurozone is changing, and interest rates will need to be higher for longer than policymakers and investors once estimated, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said on Tuesday. While the shocks that pushed the region’s inflation rate above 10 percent late last year, such as supply chain bottlenecks during the pandemic and the surge in energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have started to wane, their impact is still passing through the economy. That’s making inflation more persistent, Ms. Lagarde said at the central bank’s 10th annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. The slower decline in inflation “is caused by the fact that inflation is working its way through the economy in phases, as different economic agents try to pass the costs on to each other,” Ms. Lagarde said. Companies have passed on costs to customers, and now workers are trying to catch up from lost wages caused by high prices.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Ms, Jerome H, Powell, Andrew Bailey Organizations: European Central Bank, Companies, Federal Reserve, Bank of England Locations: Ukraine, Sintra , Portugal, Europe, Canada, South Africa, Sintra

☆ Stock Market Rally on Pause as Investors Take Cue from the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

This week, stock investors also paused for reflection, putting the recent rally on hold until the outlook becomes clearer. The S&P 500 is headed for its first weekly decline since early May, which would end the index’s longest streak of gains since 2021. Even after a slump on Friday, this week’s fall is set to shave off just 1 percent from those gains. Stocks of smaller companies more exposed to the risk of a slump in the U.S. economy fell further. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during congressional testimony on Thursday that “the data will tell us what to do” on future rate increases.

Persons: Russell, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Fed Chair Sees ‘Long Way to Go’ on Inflation Fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, is set to tell House lawmakers that the United States remains a “long way” away from low and stable inflation even 15 months into the central bank’s campaign to cool the economy and wrestle down rapid price increases. In light of that, the Fed could raise interest rates even higher than their current level of just above 5 percent. “Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year,” Mr. Powell will say, according to the text of his prepared remarks. “Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.”Fed officials left interest rates unchanged last week following 10 straight increases. But central bankers have been adamant that the decision to hit pause did not amount to a declaration of victory over inflation.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” Mr, “ Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, ” Fed Locations: United States

☆ What to Watch For at the Fed’s Meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Prices have been increasing faster than the Fed would like for more than two years, but a report on Tuesday confirmed that the pace of overall inflation continues to cool. That doesn’t mean the Fed can declare victory: Once volatile food and fuel prices were stripped out, the data showed inflation remained stubbornly rapid. Investors are betting that Fed officials will respond to the mixed picture by skipping an increase this month, even as they signal that they might lift rates in July. Still, the outlook is very uncertain, and investors will be watching Wednesday’s Fed meeting closely for any hint at what could come next. Central bankers will release their rate decision and fresh economic forecasts at 2 p.m., followed by a news conference with Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to know about the decision.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal, Investors, Fed Locations: Central

☆ Fed Leaves Rates Steady but Forecasts More Moves to Come
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Fed officials try to keep inflation climbing at a pace of 2 percent a year, but its rise has been much more rapid than that since early 2021. But 15 months into their fight to wrestle inflation lower, Fed officials want to give themselves more time to assess how their policy is playing out in the economy. Central bankers voted unanimously on the decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Just because Fed officials are moving into a new and more patient stage of their war against rapid price increases does not mean that they are giving up on their push to cool inflation. Central bankers have already moved rates up notably, to about 5.1 percent, and those changes are still trickling through and weighing on the economy.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Fed Locations: Central

The fresh data offer the latest evidence that the Fed’s push to control rapid price increases is beginning to work. Investors have been betting that Fed officials will leave rates unchanged at their meeting this week, breaking their long streak of increases. Even so, many investors continue to expect that Fed officials will restart rate increases in July. That “core” price index rose 5.3 percent in May compared with a year earlier. And price increases for goods excluding motor vehicles remained positive, instead of subtracting from inflation as some economists have been expecting.

Persons: “, ” Laura Rosner, Warburton, Airfares, Ms, Rosner, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Mortgage, Association

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