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The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 2.3% of nonfarm payroll workers quit their jobs in July, down from a rate as high as 3% during the pandemic-driven "Great Resignation." The hiring rate last month hit its lowest point since April 2020. The JOLTS data for July "are moderating back to either pre-pandemic levels or levels that we have not seen in quite some time. Because the 401(k) data tends to capture higher-paying jobs, slowed hiring in that cohort could be particularly relevant to the Fed's inflation outlook. Data later this week will provide an updated view on inflation as well as for hiring and wages in August.

Persons: Fiona Greig, Greig, Christopher Waller, Beveridge, Oren Klachkin, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Reuters, Vanguard, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Conference, Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: U.S, joblessness

That sobering view of a post-pandemic global economy emerged from research organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve and debated here this past weekend. "This puts us in a bleak setting, thinking about the parts of the world that are labor rich but capital poor," he said. "I do remember a time, maybe a more naive time...when more trade would create friends," said Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England. If there was a potential bright spot, it was around the discussion of advances in artificial intelligence as a possible driver of higher productivity. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: JACKSON, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Maurice Obstfeld, Barry Eichengreen, Eswar Prasad, Donald Trump, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Bernstein, Ben Broadbent, Ngozi Okonjo, Iweala, Trump, Nela Richardson, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Kansas City Federal Reserve, U.S, Monetary Fund, Fed, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, University of California, Cornell University, U.S . White House Council, Economic, Biden, Bank of England, Trade Organization, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Ukraine, China, West, Washington . China, U.S, Berkeley, Japan, Nigeria, Russian, Europe

"The economy is a global economy, right? Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data. But gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. Difficulties in China, meanwhile, may drag down global growth the longer they fester. Its slowdown after a short-lived growth burst earlier this year could pinch Germany's exports and slow Europe's growth, for instance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann Saphir, JACKSON, Jackson, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Loretta Mester, Mester, Lagarde, Biden, Nathan Sheets, Powell, Gourinchas, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Monetary Fund, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Citigroup, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Brazil, Chile, China, Ukraine

"The longer we let inflation remain above 2%, we're building in a higher and higher price level," she said, and that hurts American households. "I'm going to have to reassess that because, again, it's going to be, how quickly do you think inflation is moving down?" "I do not want to be in a position of prematurely loosening policy," Mester said. Fed projections submitted in June show a median forecast for 2.1% inflation by the end of 2025; Mester said hers was for 2% inflation. The Fed's next and possibly last rate hike "doesn't necessarily have to be September, but I think this year," she said.

Persons: JACKSON, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester, Mester, Ann Saphir, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: , WYOMING, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

It is not even certain that the decline in China's U.S. import share represents a true delinking, they said. Yet in the background, the researchers noted that China had "stepped up" its trade and investment activity with Vietnam and Mexico, as well as other countries. "The U.S. could well remain indirectly connected to China through its trade and global value chain links with these third-party countries," they argued. Prices for goods from some countries, moreover, were beginning to rise. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: JACKSON, deglobalization, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Alfaro, Chor, What's, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Biden, Trump, Federal, Harvard Business School, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth, Fed, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, China, Ukraine, freefall, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Vietnam, Mexico

☆ BOJ's Ueda: Underlying inflation still a bit below target
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a group interview with media in Tokyo, Japan, May 25, 2023. "We think that underlying inflation is still a bit below our target," Ueda said. Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.1% in July, staying above the central bank's 2% inflation target for the 16th straight month, as companies continued to pass on higher costs to households. Nevertheless, inflation "is expected to decline" from here, he said, with the underlying trend still less than the target. It also sets an allowance band of 50 basis point around the 10-year yield target.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kim Kyung, JACKSON, Ueda, Howard Schneider, Leika Kihara, Andrea Ricci, Diane Craft Organizations: Japan, REUTERS, Bank of Japan's, Reserve, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, , Wyoming

☆ No appetite at Fed, ECB for changing inflation goal
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "Two percent is and will remain our inflation target," Powell said in his keynote address. After aggressive interest rate increases by the Fed and the ECB, among others, inflation has fallen but has not yet reached the 2% goal in either Europe or the United States. Increasing the target could undermine efforts to anchor inflation expectations, she said, and anchored expectations are key to keeping inflation constrained. Reporting by Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider and Balazs Koryani; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, JACKSON, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koryani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Fed, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Europe, United States

"We will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data," Powell said in a keynote address to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. "It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so. The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge has moved down to 3.3% from its peak of 7% last summer. Although the decline was a "welcome development," Powell said, inflation "remains too high." Fed policymakers will also meet in November and December.

Persons: JACKSON, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Elizabeth Frantz, “ Powell, Michael Arone, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Lewis Krauskopf, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve, Committee, REUTERS, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, Washington , U.S

The U.S. economy has avoided a threatened banking crisis and financial markets have not only aligned with the Federal Reserve's tight-credit policies but of late even helped the process by bidding up market interest rates. "I think Powell’s main effort is going to be explaining to what degree you want to hold (interest rates) higher for longer in the current outlook." Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark interest rate currently expect the Fed to begin reducing the policy rate next year from the current level set between 5.25% and 5.5%. Fed officials in fact have begun discussing the possibility of rate cuts down the road, at least in the context of steadily falling inflation. If inflation does decline as expected, Fed officials including Powell have suggested rate reductions might be appropriate to maintain a roughly constant inflation-adjusted "real rate."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, JACKSON, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, who've, isn't, Adam Posen, William English, Donald Kohn, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Kansas, Fed, Northern Trust, Bank of England's, Committee, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Yale School of Management, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Washington

Even as inflation has slowed from last summer's 40-year highs, Fed officials have been reluctant to declare their job finished until there are clearer signs the economy is slowing. If, as some argue, the interest rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy has shifted higher, it means Fed policy is putting less pressure on the economy than expected. Partly to let its policies play out, the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold at its Sept. 19-20 meeting. Will the bulk of policymakers feel higher rates will be needed to finish the job? "I do expect some rise in unemployment will be required to get underlying inflation into a zone where the Fed is comfortable."

Persons: Chris Albrecht, what's, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Charles Evans, Richard Clarida, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Caesars, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Fed, Chicago Fed, Workers, U.S, Thomson Locations: DANVILLE, Virginia, Danville , Virginia, Caesars Virginia, Danville, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their words
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The following graphic offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%. Longtime banker Jeff Schmid starts as Kansas City Fed president Aug. 21, and will be a voter in 2025. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a vocal policy hawk, left the Fed in July for a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter. Reporting by Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S. Derby and Dan Burns; Editing by Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jeff Schmid, Louis, James Bullard, Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Dan Burns, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Federal, Federal Open, New York Fed, Kansas City Fed, Louis Fed, Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Kansas, St

That includes a possibility "that inflation stays high and the economy strengthens," Barkin said. Barkin said there was nothing in the recent market movements which caused him to think financial conditions were tightening too quickly or in ways that were concerning. "It doesn't strike me that having a 10-year rate over 4 (percent) is somehow wildly inappropriate," given the Fed's current policy rate, Barkin said. Rates seem to be increasing "as best I can tell with the strength of the economic data ... If consumer spending and retail sales continue to be that strong ... it's probably appropriate."

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, it's, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, U.S, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: DANVILLE, Virginia, .

He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.

Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington

A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. The Fed watches an array of asset prices in its monitoring of the economy, including stocks, home prices, and corporate bonds. Reuters GraphicsAs of the Fed's July meeting, most Fed officials said they thought rates would need to increase more, with key measures of inflation still more than double the Fed's 2% target. Normally, Fed officials would be expected to see that sort of economic strength as a reason inflation might stay high and require further rate increases. "It may take sustained higher 10-year yields to slow the economy and the housing sector in particular to re-attain 2% target inflation," wrote economists from Citi.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Krishna Guha, Guha, Howard Schneider, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Stock, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

An additional quarter-percentage-point rate increase, whether at the Fed's Sept. 19-20 meeting or later in the year, would be marginal in its macroeconomic impact, a small addition to the 5.25 percentage points the Fed has added to its policy rate over the 16 months ending in July. 'MIXED MESSAGING'The minutes include references to how officials assess the economy, the likely path of inflation, appropriate monetary policy, and the chief risks to policymakers' outlook. The core PCE index fell in June to 4.1% from 4.6% in May, a fact only released after the Fed meeting, though economists expected the decline. Since the July meeting, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has joined Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic in saying no more rate increases were needed. If market interest rates "break higher ... the Fed is going to have a problem.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Tim Duy, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Citi, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, New York Fed, Market Committee, Macro, Thomson Locations: U.S

"We now forecast a mild recession in the U.S. economy this year ... In May and June, the Fed staff projections "continued to assume" the U.S. economy would be in recession by the end of the year. Fed policymakers' projections, which are issued on a quarterly basis, never showed GDP contracting on an annual basis. 'CHUGGING ALONG'What made the difference between an in-the-moment recession that many thought was underway last year to growth that has surprised to the upside? An Atlanta Fed GDP "nowcast" puts output growth for the current July-September period at 5.0%, showing continued strong momentum.

Persons: Biden, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Sharif, We've, Sal Guatieri, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Fed, Reuters, Valley Bank, Atlanta Fed, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, California

"Most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy." The group also "discussed several risk-management considerations that could bear on future policy decisions," the minutes said. U.S. Treasury yields hit session highs after the release of the minutes while U.S. stocks extended losses. Fed staff said they expected a "step-down" in underlying prices over the second half of this year. Investors in contracts tied to the federal funds rate are betting heavily that the Fed won't raise its policy rate again during the current tightening cycle.

Persons: Howard Schneider, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Federal, Market, Treasury, Fed, Derby, Thomson

Since CPI inflation tends to be faster than the PCE measures that the Fed uses to set its inflation target, that means one important area of policymaker focus may have dipped below target already. But the pace of increase pales against the double-digit gains in 2021, and the inflation rate for rental housing has also slowed. A recent study by San Francisco Fed economists, using real-time housing and rent data from companies like Zillow, projected "a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation" through late next year. Two versions of the San Francisco estimates show shelter inflation hitting 0% next year, well below the 3%-to-4% range that Meyer said could help the Fed traverse its last inflation mile more quickly. Other aspects of the economy may also be snapping into place, a possible late-arriving validation of the Fed's initial expectation that rising inflation in 2021 would prove "transitory."

Persons: Brent Meyer, Meyer, Quincy Krosby, they've, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta Fed's, Fed, CPI, San Francisco Fed, LPL, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, San Francisco

☆ Fed doves, Fed hawks: a look at how U.S. central bankers fly
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The following graphic offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%. Longtime banker Jeff Schmid starts as Kansas City Fed president Aug. 21, and will be a voter in 2025. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a vocal policy hawk, left the Fed in July for a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter. Reporting Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S. Derby and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jeff Schmid, Louis, James Bullard, Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Open, New York Fed, Kansas City Fed, Louis Fed, Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Kansas, St

The Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.2% annual rate in July, which was a slight increase over June's 3% reading. Typically, that would be associated with a jump in unemployment as businesses and consumers scale back. Yet the unemployment rate has remained below 4% -- low for the U.S. -- since February 2022, and stood at 3.5% as of last month. Others feel the economy remains slow to adjust to higher interest rates, and that the unemployment rate will ultimately rise before the Fed finishes its inflation fight. The current Fed "has been uniquely successful thus far in lowering inflation while leaving the unemployment rate at its lowest levels in roughly half a century," they wrote, with the potential that policy tightening so far "may bring about further declines in inflation without a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate.

Persons: Bryan Woolston, Pierre, Daniel Sarte, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Mary Daly, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Kentucky, Center, REUTERS, Bryan Woolston WASHINGTON, . Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Graphics, North, Capital Economics, Traders, San Francisco Fed, Yahoo Finance, U.S, Thomson Locations: Frankfort , Kentucky, U.S, North America

The Fed last week raised its policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, the 11th increase in the last 12 meetings. Core inflation is still pretty elevated," Powell said in a press conference after the end of the Fed's two-day policy meeting. We think we're going to need to hold policy at restrictive levels for some time. The Fed's policy rate influences the economy by changing what lenders charge consumers for credit card, auto, and home loans or what businesses pay on bonds or for credit lines. "Given that inflation is still sticky, they're going to end up with rates either too high or as high as they are for too long.

Persons: Antulio Bomfim, Bomfim, what's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lindsay Owens, Thomas Simons, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Trust Asset Management, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, STAR, North Star, Open, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: U.S

Powell acknowledged as a positive development that inflation has fallen from the highs of last year without serious damage to the economy. "We'll be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates, and that won't be this year," Powell said. 'MODERATE' GROWTHU.S. Treasury yields slid in choppy trading after the release of the Fed policy statement, while U.S. stocks ended largely unchanged. Futures markets showed little change in bets on the path of Fed rate increases over the remainder of the year, with small odds given to a rise in September. Though Powell said Fed staff had relaxed a prediction of a recession in coming months, outside analysts still think that's what it may take to finish the inflation fight.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz Powell, what's, Kathy Bostjancic, nodded, Taylor Swift, he's, Veronica Clark, we're, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Treasury, Nationwide, Citi, Derby, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Washington , U.S

[1/2] European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again next week following similar positive inflation news. Meanwhile on Friday, the Bank of Japan opened the debate on plans to bring its ultra-loose policies to an end. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate now stands in the 5.25%-5.50% range, while the ECB's main rate is 3.75%. While bond markets took a cue from the faster growth, and pushed yields on Treasuries higher, the days of coordinated global tightening may be numbered.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Leika, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, U.S . Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters, U.S, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, TOKYO, Europe, United States, Graphics New, Tokyo

"We'll be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates and that won't be this year," Powell said. Yields on both the two- and 10-year Treasury notes moved down modestly from levels right before the release of the Fed's policy statement, while U.S. stocks ended mixed. Futures markets showed bets on the path of Fed rate increases over the remainder of the year were little changed, seeing small odds of a rise in September. "The forward guidance remains unchanged as the committee leaves the door open to further rate hikes if inflation does not continue to trend lower," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. He also noted that Fed staff economists are no longer predicting a recession as they have at recent meetings.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, what's, Kathy Bostjancic, he's, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Nationwide, Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S

The increase, anticipated by investors with nearly a 100% probability, would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range. That would bring it to roughly the highest level since the approach to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. Far from it, the economy is proving more resilient to rising interest rates than expected, with ongoing growth and an unemployment rate that is currently pinned at a low 3.6%. New data on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, will be released on Friday. The Fed will have a larger-than-usual amount of data to assess before its next meeting on Sept. 19-20, some eight weeks away.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Steve Englander, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Standard Chartered, Data, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, North America

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