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Welcome to the (almost) red-hot bond market
  + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Surging mortgage rates over the past few years have sent home loan applications and home sales down sharply. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was also advancing towards 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Those raging Treasury yields brought pain to investors and also increased how much American companies had to pay to service their debts. In fact, Wall Street is struggling to figure out what it means for the timing and scale of future rate cuts.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Gina Bolvin, “ We’re, Phillip Wool, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal, Treasury, Dow, Bank of America, Bolvin Wealth Management, Mortgage News, Mortgage, Association, Financial, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Fed, UBS, Airlines for America, AAA Locations: New York
Professional investors are flocking to bonds in a stampede not seen since the end of the financial crisis, according to the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. "The big change in the November FMS was not the macro outlook, but rather the conviction in lower inflation, rates, and yields," Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a summary of the results. The move was "evidenced by the 3rd largest overweight in bonds in the last two decades (only in Mar'09 and Dec'08 were investors more overweight bonds)." Expectations for a bond reversal dominated the November survey, with a record 61% saying they expect lower yields over the next 12 months. The "investor playbook for 2024 is soft landing, lower rates, weaker US$, large cap tech and pharma bull continues, avoid China and leverage," Hartnett said.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, playbook, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Wall Street, Bank of America, Mar, Federal Reserve, pharma Locations: China
The S&P 500 could fall another 5% to test a critical support level, according to Bank of America. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe S&P 500's 10% decline since the end of July is putting the index within striking distance of a critical technical support level, according to Bank of America. The 200-week moving average measures the average price of the S&P 500 over the past four years, and it's been consistently rising ever since 2012. The S&P 500 has had a tendency to test this line during periods of market stress over the past decade. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 recently broke below a shorter-term technical support level: the 4,180 to 4,195 range, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , Michael Hartnett, it's, Hartnett, Katie Stockton Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bank of America . Investment
The stock market could see further damage if one key index can't hold an important technical level, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. Looking at several key indexes, Hartnett said in a client note Thursday that selling pressure has persisted even in less tech-sensitive parts of the market, specifically citing the S & P 500 Equal-Weighted index. If that can't hold onto the 5,540 level — it closed Thursday at 5,501 — it could signal further pressure on the more widely followed S & P 500 market-cap weighted index. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD While still up 7.8% for 2023, the S & P 500 has tumbled about 14% from its all-time high. However, Harnett said he won't get bullish until the "3Ps" kick in: "bearish positioning combines with recessionary Profits to Policy easing."
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Harnett Organizations: Bank of America, Wall Locations: Thursday's
Professional investors are turning more bearish again amid the current macro backdrop, according to a closely watched Wall Street survey from Bank of America. The bank's Global Fund Manager survey showed investors have upped their cash levels and are maintaining a pessimistic outlook on growth and the economy. Specifically, strategist Michael Hartnett said the cash allocation among those surveyed increased to 5.3% from 4.9%, while staying neutral on stocks. "1 out of 4 [fund manager survey] investors expect that there will be no recession in the next 18 months," Hartnett said. A record number of respondents also indicated that monetary policy remains too tight, while fiscal policy is too easy.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, , — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Global, Reserve
BofA: Investors sell stocks, buy bonds; shun emerging markets
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Investors sold stocks and bought bonds in the week to Wednesday, Bank of America Global Research said in a note on Friday, while investors continued to shun emerging market assets. Equities had a weekly outflow of $8.2 billion, BofA said, citing EPFR data, while investors favoured the relative safety of bonds, which had inflows of $3.7 billion. Inflows into Treasuries totalled $7.2 billion, the largest weekly inflow since March 2023, BofA said. Investors dumped emerging market debt and stocks in the latest week, with outflows from equities at $4.3 billion, their largest weekly outflow since May 2022, BofA said. The 10-year yield was last at 4.6248%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, BofA, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA's, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Jane Merriman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of America Global Research, Investors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries
Bonds 'in greatest bear market of all time' - BofA
  + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The rout in the fixed-income market is causing the "greatest bond bear market of all time", Bank of America Global Research said in a note on Friday, as the peak-to-trough loss in the U.S. 30-year yield hit 50%. In its weekly "Flow Show" report, BofA said bond funds saw $2.5 billion in outflows in the week to Wednesday, citing EPFR data. BoFA's report showed that the current loss in 30-year bonds from the peak in the market in July 2020 to now far outpaces that of any previous bear market, making this one what it calls "the greatest of all time" and the "humiliation trade" right now is buying bonds. BofA said its "Bull & Bear indicator", dropped to a five-month low of 2.6 on poor equity breadth, outflows from emerging markets, high yield bonds and developed market stocks. BofA said it prefers to "sell the rips" in the upper half of S&P 500's (.SPX) range of 3,600-4,200 as they are "convinced the bear market has unfinished business".
Persons: Dado Ruvic, BofA, BoFA's, Michael Hartnett, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of America Global Research, Equity, Thomson Locations: U.S, outflows
That's because a recession and credit event could be in store before the Fed eases monetary policy. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementStocks could have more room to fall, as investors face a possible recession and a credit event before the US central bank pulls back on its restrictive monetary policy, according to Bank of America strategists. In other words, the bank sees more turbulence ahead before stock market investors get their long-awaited dovish pivot from the Fed. Meanwhile, fund managers see a credit event as one of the top risks to the market, Bank of America found in a recent survey.
Persons: Stocks, , Michael Hartnett, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bank of America, Service, New, Fed
Bank of America charted the historical path of interest rates last week. Central banks have lifted borrowing costs away from "5,000-year lows" over the past year, strategists said. AdvertisementAdvertisementJust like the men of TikTok, Bank of America strategists have been thinking a lot about the Roman Empire. For reasons unknown, the bank decided to chart five millennia's worth of interest rates in a recent research note. AdvertisementAdvertisementNeedless to say, investors can probably take the chart with a grain of salt – but the strategists probably aren't being facetious when they say there are gloomy times ahead.
Persons: , Sidney Homer, Richard Sylla's, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, he's Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, Federal, of, Street Locations: TikTok, Roman, Greece
An ongoing decline in job openings is not a good sign for the stock market, according to Bank of America. Job openings have dropped 27% since their peak of 12 million in March 2022. The bank highlighted that since 2001, job openings and the S&P 500 have had a strong correlation. With job openings down 27% since their March 2022 peak of 12 million, that suggests the stock market is likely to follow. "Strong correlation between US job openings (labor demand) and stock market," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note.
Persons: bode, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, that's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bank of America's, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon
Top investors are dumping emerging market equities and buying U.S. stocks at a record pace due to concerns about a potential global crisis, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed that September saw a record jump in investor allocation to the U.S., and out of emerging market securities. The shift in asset allocation stemmed from a significant decline in China growth expectations. Bank of America's survey showed none of the respondents now expect a stronger economy in China, versus 78% when polled in February. Bank of America's survey showed investors see China real estate as the No.1 source of the next global credit event.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Global, Survey, Bank of, People's Bank of Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, People's Bank of China
Don't rule out a hard landing for the US economy just yet, according to Bank of America. Strategists led by Michael Hartnett warned that oil, the dollar, and the Federal Reserve all still pose a threat. Their gloomy outlook clashes with much of Wall Street, with top banks and the Fed itself having shelved their recession predictions. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Hartnett's team said the consensus view is that there's a 20% chance of a hard landing – but warned the trifecta of oil, the dollar, and the Fed each still pose an economic threat.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, that's, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Susan Collins Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Fed, Service, Federal, West Texas, Boston Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Brent, Russia, Saudi Arabia
Aug 25 (Reuters) - Strategists at BofA Global Research see second-half "trouble" for technology stocks even as the sector took in its largest inflow in 10 weeks, the firm said in a note on Friday. BofA pointed to the correlation between a surge in central bank liquidity and the Nasdaq over the past 15 years. "We say tech = H2 trouble rather than era of new AI rules," BofA said in the note. In the latest weekly data, the tech sector saw a $2.3 billion inflow, its largest inflow in 10 weeks, BofA said. Emerging markets debt meanwhile lost out, BofA said, seeing the largest weekly outflow since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, BofA, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alistair Bell Organizations: BofA, Research, Nasdaq, U.S . Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon, New York, Amsterdam
Growth is stagnating, stocks have plummeted, and youth unemployment has spiked. Six numbers sum up the economic carnage, according to Bank of America. Beijing has responded by cutting interest rates – and also stopped publishing unflattering youth unemployment figures in a desperate attempt to pretend everything's OK. The ongoing liquidity crises for real-estate behemoth Country Garden and shadow bank Zhongrong are one potential source of "event risk," he added. Here's six other data points Hartnett picked out that show just how badly the world's second-largest economy is doing right now:
Persons: China's, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, Beijing, China
It's no secret that market leadership has become more concentrated over the years, but this is ridiculous. That one company is Microsoft , the behemoth with the $2.35 trillion market cap and, it seems, a position in the driver's seat on where the market goes next. In his weekly breakdown of money flows through the financial markets, BofA investment strategist Michael Hartnett said Microsoft needs to reassert itself or face dragging down the rest of the stock market. MSFT YTD line Microsoft as market leader That's why it holds such a pivotal position in determining how things go from here. Harnett noted that the equity put/call ratio has hit its highest point since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, "a bad sign if stocks can't hold hold here."
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, That's, Yul Brynner, Brynner, Chris Adams, gunfighters, Harnett, swoon Organizations: Bank of America, Microsoft, Dow Jones, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Thursday's, Silicon
"Bear positioning strong tailwind for risk assets in H1…not the case in H2," Hartnett wrote in a summary of the closely watched survey. Cash allocations have dropped to 4.8% of portfolios, below the 5% dividing line that has traditionally been a buy signal. Even if there is a recession, managers expect it to be mild, with 65% expecting a "soft landing." Allocation to stocks is the least underweight as a share of portfolios since April 2022 and up 13 percentage points from July. The survey was taken Aug. 4-10 and entailed 247 panelists with $635 billion in assets under management.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, REITs, Lehman Organizations: Bank of America, Survey, FMS
Corbis/Getty ImagesScholar Teresia Teaiwa famously critiqued the bikini as instrumental to depoliticizing and concealing the effects of nuclear weapons in the Pacific. Britain and France would later begin their own nuclear weapons programs on Indigenous lands and waters in Australia and French Occupied Polynesia, among others. The US began detonating nuclear bombs at the Nevada Test Site in 1951, garnering nearby Las Vegas the nickname Atomic City. Atomic playboys have aestheticized nuclear weapons as sexy — but still safe — since their very existence. Nolan prolongs the time between the flash and the blast, allowing Oppenheimer’s words to hang in unnerving suspension.
Persons: Rebecca H, Hogue, Barbie ”, “ Oppenheimer, “ Barbie ”, Barbenheimer, Hogue Rebecca H, Baker, ” Rita Hayworth, Gilda, Hayworth, — Jacques Heim’s, Louis Réard, Corbis, Teresia Teaiwa, Lee A, Merlin, SpongeBob, Bert, Turtle, Walt, William Blandy, , Christopher Nolan’s “ Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy, Nolan, Oppie, Ernest Lawrence, Josh Hartnett, Jean Tatlock, Florence Pugh, Kitty Oppenheimer, Emily Blunt, Tatlock, Oppenheimer, J, Robert Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan's, Melinda Sue Gordon, Nolan prolongs, “ Gilda, , Nolan bifurcates “ Oppenheimer ”, ” “ Oppenheimer, Barbie, Margot Robbie, , Ken, Ryan Gosling, , Barbie’s, Mike ”, Edward Teller, “ It’s, Teller, “ Oppenheimer ” Organizations: Dartmouth College’s Society of Fellows, Mahindra Humanities Center, Harvard University, CNN, Warner Brothers Discovery, Universal, Trinity, Crossroads, Getty, Atomic Energy Commission, US, Las, Atomic, National Atomic Testing, Los, Communist Party, American, Twitter Locations: Pacific, Oceania, New Mexico, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Northern Paiute, Western, Nevada, Amchitka , Alaska, Bikini Atoll, Britain, France, Australia, French, Las Vegas, Las, Playthings, Los Alamos, Japan, American, iconicity, Alamos
Here's how Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS recommend investing in AI. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS are more optimistic about AI stocks after each expressed hesitations earlier this year as shares of companies tied to the technology exploded higher. In contrast, Morgan Stanley has dismissed concerns that AI stocks are in a bubble. "Inevitably, the market will compare AI to the dot-com boom," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim in a July report. As for chipmakers, Morgan Stanley agreed with Bank of America that the path forward is bifurcated.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Marcelli, Art Cashin, Michael Hartnett, Shawn Kim, Mike Wilson, Morgan, Vivek Arya, Wilson Organizations: Wall, Bank of America, UBS, Americas, Nvidia, Marvell Technology, Broadcom, Cadence Design Systems, Bank of, Accenture, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Consumer Locations: California, Snowflake, OpenAI
Tech stocks have been boosted by exuberance about artificial intelligence as well as hopes the Federal Reserve will soon end the aggressive interest rate rises that bludgeoned valuations of more speculative businesses in 2022. Owning big tech is also the "most crowded" trade in global markets, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned in a note to clients this week. This was just the latest downside surprise on prices for a major economy after more than 18 months of central banks cranking interest rates higher. Sterling lost 0.96% to trade at $1.291 as market bets that the Bank of England would raise interest rates as high as 6%, from the current 5%, faded out. London's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) added 1.6% and the domestically focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) rose 3.2%, on track for its best daily performance since February 2.
Persons: Sterling, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Stuart Kaiser, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, BoE, Samuel Tombs, Kenneth Broux, Germany's, Tom Westbrook, Bernadette Baum, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: Stock, Wall, Tesla, Netflix, Nasdaq, Tech, Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Bank of England, Macroeconomics, Sterling, . Federal, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: London, Sydney
Stability AI founder Emad Mostaque Courtesy of Stability AIThe CEO of one of the biggest AI startups warned that AI will "be the biggest bubble of all time." Emad Mostaque, the cofounder of Stability AI, compared the hype around the technology to the dot-com bubble, CNBC reported. Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque told UBS analysts that he thinks AI will "be the biggest bubble of all time," CNBC reported. "I call it the 'dot AI' bubble, and it hasn't even started yet," the cofounder of the generative AI startup said on the call, according to CNBC. And in May, Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel was careful not to prognosticate about the future of AI companies.
Persons: Emad Mostaque, hasn't, Mostaque, Sam Altman, James Penny, Michael Hartnett, Dan Ives, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel Organizations: CNBC, Investment, Service, UBS, Investors, Bank of America Global Research, Federal Reserve, Wedbush Securities Locations: Wall, Silicon, Pitchbook, Silicon Valley
That fear has led a net 39% of survey respondents to say they are taking less risk than normal, a 2 percentage point increase from June. Interestingly, Hartnett noted that 66% retail investors as gauged by the American Association of Individual Investors surveys are in stocks, the "most bullish since late 2021." Hartnett also noted a "capitulation" move out of commodities, as managers have taken their most underweight position in the sector since May 2020. The July survey captured the sentiment of 262 respondents with $652 billion in assets under management. Sentiment surveys often can be contrarian indicators, so rising pessimism can be a good sign for markets.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, U.S . Federal, Nasdaq, Big Tech, American Association of, Investors
Bank of America's top stock picks for the third quarter
  + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Bank of America is out with its latest short-term stock picks as the third trading quarter of the year gets underway. "Over the last quarter, the BofA Macro view has evolved," strategist Anthony Cassamassino wrote in a note Monday. Bank of America gathered its 10 best ideas for the new quarter, all of them buy-rated, Cassamassino said. The bank also sees multiple growth drivers this year and improvements in merchandise margins as cost inflation and freight expenses normalize. Its $135 price target on the stock is more than 50% above its closing price Friday.
Persons: Anthony Cassamassino, Savita Subramanian, Michael Hartnett, Michael Gapen, Stephen Suttmeier, Cassamassino, it's, Lamb Weston, Wells, defensibility Organizations: of America, U.S, Our U.S . Economist, " Bank of America, Body, Bank of America, Disney, Wells Fargo Locations: Our
Investors just sold off $2 billion in tech shares, the largest outflow in 10 weeks. Previously, the bank called AI a "baby bubble," comparing it to the 2000s dot-com craze. Previously, Hartnett compared the excitement for AI to the dot-com bubble, when internet stocks boomed before the Nasdaq Composite plunged 78% in the early 2000s. In a prior note, he called Wall Street's excitement for AI a "baby bubble," and suggested that AI stocks could soon "mature" as internet stocks did in 1999. Along with Hartnett, UBS's Art Cashin and veteran economist David Rosenberg have also drawn parallels with the current boom in AI stocks to the dot-com bubble.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Tesla, Hartnett, Cashin, David Rosenberg Organizations: Bank of America, Investors, Service, Tech, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Nasdaq, Labor
CNBC Daily Open: Fueled by the FOMO momentum
  + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' streak snappedU.S. stocks fell Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping their six-day winning streak. Asia-Pacific markets mostly dropped Monday as well, with markets in China, Japan and South Korea trading lower. Tesla's self-driving ambitionsElon Musk said the value of Tesla depends on whether it can crack the code to self-driving vehicles.
Persons: Antony Blinken, Qin Gang, Biden, China Goldman Sachs, Elon Musk, Tesla, Bull, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, it'll Organizations: U.S ., Microsoft, CNBC, Nasdaq, China U.S, Foreign, Qin, Bears, Bank of America Chief Investment Locations: U.S, Issy, France, Asia, Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, Beijing, Wall
CNBC Daily Open: The FOMO momentum
  + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
(Photo by I RYU/VCG via Getty Images)This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' streak snappedU.S. stocks fell Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping their six-day winning streak. Tesla's self-driving ambitionsElon Musk said the value of Tesla depends on whether it can crack the code to self-driving vehicles. There are three factors, according to Hartnett, that'll allow stocks to continue their current rally — though he worries it'll be a "big rally before big collapse."
Persons: RYU, Elon Musk, Tesla, Antony Blinken, Qin Gang, Biden, Bull, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, it'll Organizations: Microsoft, Getty, CNBC, Nasdaq, gilts, Amazon, China U.S, Foreign, Qin, Bears, Bank of America Chief Investment Locations: Seattle , Washington, Blinken, China, Beijing, U.S
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