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Fed meeting: Here's what to expect
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed meeting: Here's what to expectSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, Paul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global market strategy, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss a timeline for Fed rate easing, U.S. economic health, and more.
Persons: Subadra, Paul Christopher, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Societe Generale, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWells Fargo's Paul Christopher says, there's value in energy and likes these non-tech sectorsPaul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global investment Strategy and Mimi Duff, Gentrust Managing Director, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss opportunities in the market.
Persons: Wells Fargo's Paul Christopher, Paul Christopher, Mimi Duff Organizations: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Gentrust Locations: Wells Fargo
Goldman Sachs"We expect price increases to be driven by modest earnings growth and well-supported price-to-earnings multiples," wrote Austin Pickle, a strategist at WFII, in a January 16 note. Stucky continued: "I've never seen a re-acceleration in earnings growth — which is what the baseline expectation is for earnings — absent some sort of economic recovery or an acceleration in economic growth. He noted that many factors influence profits, but added that his forward model suggests there's earnings risk ahead. Bianco said he expects flat or mid-single-digit earnings growth for stocks in most sectors. However, he said that during expansions, GDP growth is a poor predictor of earnings growth.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Austin Pickle, Jonathan Golub, Golub, Matt Stucky, Stucky, I've, Brad Klapmeyer, He's, Klapmeyer, Anthony Saglimbene, , Saglimbene, Saglimbene doesn't, David Bianco, Bianco Organizations: Business, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Macquarie Asset Management, DWS Group
Investors should focus on defensive stocks ahead of an expected economic slowdown in 2024, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Against this forecast, Cronk added that investors may have to wait until the second half of 2024 before visibility improves and markets meaningfully recover. Wednesday saw stocks climb after two back to back losing sessions for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 . "The lack of market breadth (along with our expectation for an economic slowdown) suggests late-cycle dynamics are at play, leading us to maintain our defensive positioning entering 2024," he said. Cronk highlighted health care, industrials and materials as three key market segments that fit his suggested defensive investor focus.
Persons: Darrell Cronk, Cronk, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wells, Investment Institute, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Wells Fargo
The key catalyst for stocks will likely continue to be the expected trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In September, historically the weakest month for stocks, the S&P 500 fell nearly 5%. The S&P 500 gained nearly 9% gain in November, historically a strong month for the index. Overall, December has been the second-best month for the S&P 500, with the index up an average of 1.54% for the month since 1945, according to CFRA. Many other names have languished: The equal-weighted S&P 500, whose performance is not skewed by big tech and growth stocks, is up around 6% in 2023.
Persons: Mike Segar, Santa Claus, Stocks, We've, Sam Stovall, Claus, Kraft Heinz, BofA, Sameer Samana, Dow, Michael Hartnett, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Research, Investors, LPL, BofA Global Research, PayPal Holdings, CVS Health, Kraft, Wells, Investment Institute, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Coinbase Global, Innovation, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Santa, New York
That's quite similar to what investors can get on government bonds, while high-quality corporate bonds yield more nearly 6.5% in the U.S. and U.K., and 4.6% in Europe. Here's what the pros say on how to invest within the fixed income space — cash or bonds — in the next two years and beyond. Schroders' Head of Strategic Research Duncan Lamont also stated his preference for bonds, saying that putting your money in cash means being exposed to interest rate fluctuations. And those rates are higher than cash — at 6.2% for corporate bonds with an average maturity of three years, and 6.5% on high-quality U.S. corporate bonds with an average tenure of 10 years, noted Lamont. "Fixed income is experiencing greater inflows than equities in the US and the same trend relative to cash in Europe.
Persons: Schroders, Luis D, Alvarado, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Ashish Shah Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Fed, CNBC Pro, Strategic, U.S . Federal, Goldman, Management, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Locations: U.S, Europe, Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market is telling us the Fed is done hiking rates, things are slowing, says BD8's Barbara DoranBarbara Doran, BD8 Capital Partners CIO, and Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Barbara Doran Barbara Doran, Scott Wren Organizations: BD8 Capital, Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Fargo
Stocks won't bring much joy in 2024, according to Wells Fargo. The bank expects the benchmark S&P 500 to trade within a narrow range the whole year. AdvertisementInvestors shouldn't count on the stocks' stellar run lasting much longer with higher interest rates likely to weigh on the market for all of 2024, according to Wells Fargo. In a research note published Monday, strategists at the bank said they expected the S&P 500 to be trading at between 4,600 and 4,800 points by the end of 2024. Wells Fargo's latest outlook puts it on the more bearish side of Wall Street, with many analysts saying the S&P 500 could have another strong year with the US economy looking likely to avoid a long-predicted recession.
Persons: , Austin Pickle, Wells, Chris Harvey –, they're Organizations: “ Equity, Service, Fargo Investment Institute, Fed, CNBC, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Wells Fargo, Fargo, Wall
Investors who hope to generate portfolio income while recession fears ramp higher can seek some safety in municipal bonds. Wells Fargo Investment Institute recently issued its fixed income guidance for 2024, forecasting "higher for longer" rates across the yield curve as the Federal Reserve remains vigilant to bring down inflation. Municipal bonds offer a combination of characteristics that appeal to investors: General obligation bonds are backed by the revenue of the municipality issuing them. "Going into a slowdown, you anticipate rates to fall," said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The top marginal income tax rate is 13.3% in California and well over 10% in New York and New Jersey.
Persons: Brian Rehling, Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton, Johnston Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Federal Reserve, Fargo Investment Institute, AAA, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard, Bond, Fed, New York Life Investments, Investors, York State, Metropolitan Transportation Authority Locations: Wells Fargo, Fargo, New, California, New York, New Jersey, York
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors are 'racing to get back into good names', says BD8's Barbara DoranBarbara Doran, BD8 Capital Partners CIO and Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Barbara Doran Barbara Doran, Scott Wren Organizations: BD8 Capital, Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Fargo
The S&P 500 is up about 18% for 2023 to date. WFII sees the S&P 500 ending next year between 4,600 and 4,800. Geopolitical problems are among other risks to the market heading into 2024, strategists said, with investors closely watching the war between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth for 2023 is estimated at 2.3% after a weak first half of the year, according to LSEG data. The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is now at 19.1, up from 17 at the end of 2022 and its long-term average of about 16, based on LSEG data.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Christopher, WFII, CME's, Goldman, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Dow, Caroline Valetkevitch, Chuck Mikolajczak, Sinead Carew, Stephen Culp, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Wall, Federal, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, U.S, Ingalls &, Dow, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Israel, Gaza, New York, Monday's, Bengaluru
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Falling Treasury yields helped launch an explosive rebound in stocks and lifted U.S. government bonds from 16-year lows. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions could be seen in last week’s 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth biggest weekly drop since 1990. Policymakers have largely refrained from verbally pushing back on the easing in financial conditions during a flurry of appearances by policymakers this week. Analysts at TD Securities, however, believe further easing in Treasury yields will eventually become a "double-edged sword." To be sure, not every scenario sees the Fed in a higher-for-longer posture if Treasury yields continue falling.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Brian Jacobsen, Jacobsen, CME's, Sameer Samana, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Goldman, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, International Monetary Fund, TD Securities, Fed, Wells, Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, United States, China, Samana, U.S
UBS Both stocks and bonds retreated in October in the wake of war in the Middle East and concerns about rates, UBS said. Wells Fargo Investment Institute In an Oct. 30 note, Wells Fargo said it expects a recession and the average stock will likely continue to struggle. How to invest UBS favors the higher-quality segments of fixed income, preferring high-grade government and investment-grade bonds. Overall, Wells Fargo said, it's most favorable on U.S. long-term taxable fixed income, and its short-term counterpart, and favorable on U.S. taxable investment-grade fixed income. It's least favorable on U.S. intermediate-term taxable fixed income and high yield taxable fixed income.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, it's, inching, Scott Wren, Wells Fargo, Wells Fargo's Wren, Schroders Bond, Schroders, Neil Sutherland, Sutherland, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, Treasury, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, UBS Locations: U.S ., Wells Fargo, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'We are set up for a rally into the end of the year', says Hightower's Stephanie LinkStephanie Link, Hightower chief investment strategist, and Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and the latest set of economic data.
Persons: Stephanie Link Stephanie Link, Hightower, Scott Wren Organizations: Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Fargo
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFOMC meeting could be a 'bullish development' for the markets, says iCapital's Anastasia AmorosoAnastasia Amoroso, iCapital chief investment strategist, and Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso Anastasia Amoroso, Sameer Samana Organizations: Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Wells Fargo
Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. “That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ’ ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, , Gennadiy Goldberg, ” Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine
Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. "That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, , Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine
But with 10-year Treasury yields surging to 5% - a 16-year high , many investors might now be tempted to lock in those high yields and buy into bonds. "You may not see such high yields as these in the next year or two," he told CNBC's " Squawk Box Asia " on Thursday. Bond prices and bond yields move in opposite directions. It's unfavorable on U.S. intermediate-term fixed income, as well as high yield taxable fixed income. Types of fixed income that it's overweight on include short-term U.S. Treasurys, U.S. inflation-linked bonds, U.K. gilts and emerging market bonds.
Persons: Wells, Paul Christopher, CNBC's, Christopher, Wells Fargo, Thomas Poullaouec, Rowe Price, Wells Fargo's Scott Wren, Bryn Jones, Rathbones, there's, Jones, He's, BlackRock Organizations: Investment, U.S, gilts, BlackRock Investment, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasurys Locations: Asia, Pacific
A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, hovered near their highest levels since 2007 on Thursday, continuing a bond market selloff that has pushed yields up by more than 40 basis points since the start of October. At close to 5%, 10-year Treasury yields are significantly above their fair value of 4.2% to 4.3%, Goldman Sachs noted. Treasuries will likely rally as the economy hits a "pothole" in the fourth quarter, Goldman Sachs said. "The key risk to this trade is that U.S. data is stronger than expected leading yields to fall less than our strategist expects," Goldman Sachs wrote.
Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Goldman Sachs, Treasuries, Scott Wren, Wren, David Randall, Will Dunham Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, Wells, Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Wells Fargo
Valuations have swelled, with the Magnificent Seven trading at an average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E of 18.3. “Everybody knows these guys are going to make money," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), referring to the Magnificent Seven. "The reallocation of funds going forward is going to suggest lower returns and more difficulty for the Magnificent Seven to maintain their leadership." The seven companies' combined market capitalization topped 30% of the S&P 500's overall market value earlier this month, according to LSEG Datastream. Some investors are also drawing distinctions among the seven stocks.
Persons: Aly, Tesla, Sameer Samana, Tajinder Dhillon, Tim Pagliara, CapWealth, Pagliara, Elon Musk, LSEG Datastream, Torsten Slok, Patrick Kaser, Kaser, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, U.S, Tesla, Wells, Investment Institute, Google, Facebook, Federal, Treasury, , Global, Apollo Global Management, Brandywine Global, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Apple
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe stock market has some lower levels in it, says Wells Fargo's Scott WrenScott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Senior Global Market Strategist, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss inflation, the Fed and the markets.
Persons: Wells Fargo's Scott Wren Scott Wren Organizations: Fargo Investment Institute Senior Global Market, Fed Locations: Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will win the war on inflation, says Wells Fargo's Brian RehlingBrian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether buyers will come into bond markets, where bond yields are headed next year, and more.
Persons: Wells, Brian Rehling Brian Rehling Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Wells Fargo
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSeptember's overselling sets up market for better returns going forward, says Bespoke's Paul HickeyPaul Hickey, Bespoke Investment Group co-founder, and Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Bespoke's Paul Hickey Paul Hickey, Sameer Samana Organizations: Investment Group, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Wells Fargo
New York CNN —As the US national debt passes $33 trillion and a government shutdown looms, Wall Street feels defensive. What’s happening: The gross national debt has grown at an alarming pace since then — by $1 trillion in the last three months alone. Political finger pointing around what caused the accelerated debt accrual, meanwhile, has left the government at an impasse around the budget. The recent increase in interest rates has already made it much more expensive for the government to pay back what it owes. That would leave the door open for another rate increase, which could come when the following meeting concludes, on November 1.
Persons: Fitch, , Michael Peterson, Peter G, Peterson, Biden, Gary Schlossberg, Jennifer Timmerman, Gregory Daco, Bryan Mena, Jerome Powell, Instacart, Jordan Valinsky Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, AAA, AA, GOP, UAW, Wells, Investment Institute, Fed, Federal, Financial, Walmart Locations: New York, , Amazon
Since the central bank kicked off its policy-tightening campaign in March 2022 — boosting interest rates 11 times — income investors have benefited from higher yields on Treasurys, money market funds and certificates of deposit. "From here, even if rates go higher you are locking in some really good income." If you're willing to sacrifice a little bit of liquidity, select banks will pay even higher yields. Drivers of those increases include higher-for-longer interest rates, and competition from Treasurys and money market funds, Graseck added. Money market funds Rates on money market funds have also jumped substantially since the rate-hiking campaign started.
Persons: Greg McBride, reinvest, US2Y, Treasurys, Sameer Samana, Sallie Mae, Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck, Graseck, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Nick Wells Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Savings, Synchrony, Bread Financial, Investment Company Locations: maturities, Wells Fargo
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