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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEurope is at 'a bit of an inflection point,' analyst says ahead of the European electionsEmre Peker, director for Europe at Eurasia Group, discusses the upcoming European elections.
Persons: Emre Peker Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: Europe
Read previewAfter a meeting with Japanese and South Korean officials in Tokyo on Friday, US Space Force commander Gen. Stephen Whiting warned about a growing threat. China, he said, is "moving at breathtaking speed in space," and is developing a range of weapons that threaten America's space supremacy, reported Stars and Stripes. "For the first time in decades, US leadership in space and space technology is being challenged," Meink added. Chance Saltzman, Chief of Space Operations at United States Space Force, last year warned against taking US space supremacy for granted. Air Force Lieutenant General Gregory Guillot (L) and US Space Force Lieutenant General Stephen Whiting (R) on July 26, 2023.
Persons: , Stephen Whiting, They're, Troy Meink, Space.com, Meink, Chance Saltzman, I'm, Saltzman, Whiting, Dominic Chiu, Gregory Guillot, BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI, Donald Trump, Chiu, Artemis, Frank Lucas, Anthony Mastalir, Graeme Thompson, Thompson, Tory Bruno, Arthur Herman, John F, Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, we've Organizations: Service, Korean, Space Force, Business, National Reconnaissance Office, Space Operations, United States Space Force, Eurasia Group, Air Force, US Space Force, House Science, Technology Committee, Brig, US Space Forces, Pentagon, United Launch Alliance, NBC News, Hudson Institute Locations: Tokyo, China, Colorado, Australia, Russia
There was a risk, he said, that US-China relations could "return to a downward spiral." As such, the US-China relationship appears to have entered a dangerous period, and time may be running out to save it. The US has handed Ukraine billions in aid and military support to resist the invasion, with a new $61 billion bill passing this week. AdvertisementBlinken said he raised concerns about China's support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Blinken will have to overcome several hurdles for US-China relations to improve.
Persons: , Antony Blinken's, Xi Jinping, Wang Yi, Xi, Joe Biden, Ali Wyne, Wang, Blinken, Ian Bremmer Organizations: Service, Business, US, West, International Crisis, Russia, Eurasia Group, Bloomberg Locations: China, Ukraine, loggerheads, Taiwan, Washington, Beijing, US, Western Europe, Russia
CNN —The $95 billion military aid package President Joe Biden signed Wednesday was a feat of tough-minded negotiation to get funding to Ukraine and Israel after months of congressional horse-trading. But if the aid inflates those countries’ war aims, it could discourage the kind of tough-minded negotiation that is the only way to end their wars. The new infusion of aid gives the US a lot of leverage with Ukraine and Israel. However, the recent aid package includes long-range missiles, or ATACMS, which suggests Ukraine is readying an offensive against Crimea. In Israel, putting conditions on military aid is a better idea.
Persons: Mark Hannah, Joe Biden, Mark Hannah Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, , Mark Milley, , , Israel, Biden, George W, Bush, Putin, Ukraine’s, Biden judiciously, Netanyahu, Henry Kissinger, Golda Meir, Kissinger, ” Kissinger, Russia shouldn’t Organizations: Institute for Global Affairs, Eurasia Group, CNN, Wednesday, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Palestinian Authority, Abrams Tanks, Crimea, Israel, Twitter Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Crimea, Washington, Ukrainian, Russia, Gaza, United States, Kippur, Tel Aviv, Soviet
US and China's engagements don't mean they trust each other more, said Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . But just because they're talking more doesn't mean that they actually trust each other more, an analyst said on Wednesday. Earlier this month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited China, seeking cooperation in areas beneficial to both countries. Advertisement"It's always better to have more engagement, more conversations — especially when you don't trust each other," Bremmer said.
Persons: Ian Bremmer, , Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, there's, Bremmer, Janet Yellen, Lloyd Austin, State Anthony Blinken, William Lai — Organizations: Service, Eurasia Group, Bloomberg, APEC, Defense, State Locations: Eurasia, Ian Bremmer . Washington, China, Taiwan, San Francisco, US, Washington, Taiwan —, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEurasia Group's Greg Brew: Iran downplays Israel's strike and denies missile attackGregory Brew, Eurasia Group Iran and energy analyst, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest on the Israel-Iran conflict, the potential for further escalation, and more.
Persons: Greg Brew, Gregory Brew Organizations: Eurasia, Eurasia Group Locations: Iran, Eurasia, Eurasia Group Iran, Israel
Israel and Iran: All-out war, or measured retaliation?
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Imageswatch nowBut a full-blown conventional war would be devastating to both sides and highly destabilizing for the Middle East. Are these tit-for-tat blows between Israel and Iran clear evidence of all-out war, or carefully calibrated retaliation strikes? "With Israel's apparent strikes on Iran today, retaliating for Iran's attack on Israel last Sunday, we now have a direct nation-on-nation hot war," he told CNBC's "Capital Connection" Friday. 'Ball is back in Iran's court'Not everyone agrees that the line into wider war has been crossed, however. Within hours of the Israeli strikes, risk assets were already on their way back down, with international oil benchmark Brent crude turning lower for the session after a brief spike.
Persons: Atta Kenare, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joe Biden, Netanyahu, Ebrahim Raisi, Clay Seigle, CNBC's, Ehud Olmert, CNBC's Dan Murphy, Olmert, Ian Bremmer, Michael Singh, Israel, Rob Casey, Casey Organizations: AFP, Getty, Washington, Rapidan Energy Group, Israeli, Military, Israel, Eurasia Group, National Security Council, Wall Street, Signum Global Advisors, Anadolu, International Atomic Energy Agency, Brent Locations: Palestine Square, Tehran, Israel, Iran, U.S, Damascus, Gulf of Oman, Hormuz, Anadolu
It was a response to Israel's attack on an Iranian consulate building in Damascus on April 1, which killed multiple high-level Iranian commanders. But Iran knows all too well about Israel's Iron Dome and its other air defense systems, which intercepted many of the incoming projectiles. Iran also warned everyone for weeks that the attack was coming — giving Israel's allies time to prepare — and avoided targeting civilian locations. It was a response aimed at demonstrating its capabilities and saving face while — its government hopes — avoiding further escalation. On the day of the Iranian attack, thousands gathered in Tel Aviv to protest against Netanyahu's government.
Persons: , Ian Bremmer, Michael Horowitz, Will Israel, John Kirby, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joe Biden's, Biden, Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, Israel Organizations: Service, British, Business, Eurasia Group, Le Beck, NBC's, West Bank, Iranian Locations: Iran, Israel, Iranian, Damascus, Jordanian, States, Gaza, Tel Aviv, Lebanon, Syria
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSouth Korea election has ended up in a 'Goldilocks scenario,' analyst saysJeremy Chan, senior China and Northeast Asia analyst at the Eurasia Group, discusses the South Korea election and says it will be "policy status quo" for the next three years.
Persons: Jeremy Chan Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: Korea, China, Northeast Asia
Hong Kong CNN —Janet Yellen has kicked off her second visit to China as US treasury secretary to continue efforts to further stabilize ties between the world’s two largest economies. “During prior meetings with her Chinese interlocutors, Yellen has largely avoided taking a strong stance on controversial issues,” he said. Trade tensionsBiden administration officials have suggested raising tariffs on Chinese imports to “level” the playing field for trade. Former President Donald Trump has threatened to slap 60% tariffs on imports from China if he is re-elected. The “forces” are often referred to as emerging industries such as EVs, new materials and artificial intelligence.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — Janet Yellen, Yellen, , ’ Yellen, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Lifeng, Liu He, Pan Gongsheng, Lan Fo’an, Craig Singleton, , Biden, Xi’s, Donald Trump, Rick Waters, , Xi, Waters, don’t, ” Singleton Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Finance, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Bali . Trade, Biden, Trump, Treasury Department Locations: China, Hong Kong, Georgia, United States, California, Guangzhou, Beijing, Washington, Bali ., Eurasia
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives to attend a European Council summit at the EU headquarters in Brussels on March 21, 2024. Sameer Al-doumy | Afp | Getty ImagesHungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has run into political trouble ahead of European parliamentary elections in June, with his ruling party shaken by two political scandals within six weeks. Orban is a long-time ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump and widely seen as Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest supporter in the European Union. The right-wing leader has led the central European country since 2010, making him the EU's longest-serving head of state. Yet two major scandals have recently rocked his dominance of Budapest's political landscape at a sensitive time when Hungary is poised to hold both local and European elections in early June.
Persons: Viktor Orban, Sameer Al, Orban, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin's, Peter Magyar, Janos Kummer, Zsuzsanna Vegh, Vegh, Magyar, Judit Varga —, Katalin Novak, Novak, Varga, William Shakespeare Organizations: Hungary's, EU, Afp, Getty, Hungarian, European Union, Eurasia Group, Fidesz, German Marshall Fund of, CNBC, Facebook, YouTube, Reuters, Lawyer Locations: Brussels, doumy, Hungary, Budapest, United States, Hungarian
Ukrainian soldiers of a mortar team in 24th brigade are seen at positions near Toretsk, Ukraine on March 26, 2024. Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesBefore the two-year anniversary of Russia's war against Ukraine, defense experts widely predicted that the conflict would settle into a stalemate in 2024, leading neither side to make or lose a significant amount of territory. Russia's recent momentum — and ongoing worries over Ukraine's weaponry and ammunition shortages, as well as stalled U.S. military aid — are now prompting concerns that a stalemate might even be the "best-case scenario" that Kyiv can hope for this year. At worst, Ukraine could see Russian forces breaking through Ukraine's defensive positions along parts of the front line, one defense expert noted. Ukrainian servicemen of 24th brigade operate an 82mm mortar near the frontline in Toretsk as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues in Toretsk, Ukraine on March 27, 2024.
Persons: Ben Barry, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Barry, Vladimir Putin, confidants, Evgenia Novozhenina, Ian Bremmer, Ukraine's, Metin Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, Land Warfare, Kremlin, Reuters Supply, Ukraine, Eurasia Group Locations: Toretsk, Ukraine, Moscow, Avdiivka, Russia, Russia’s, Donetsk, Luhansk, Russian, Iran, North Korea, Germany, U.S, Europe, Ukrainian, Izium, Kharkiv
Lawmakers, government officials, and Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee are posing for a group photo inside the chamber of the Legislative Council complex after passing the Safeguarding National Security Bill in Hong Kong, China, on March 19, 2024. Hong Kong's new national security bill that seeks to "prevent, suppress and punish espionage activities" has left analysts divided on its social and economic ramifications. Lawmakers in Hong Kong passed the Safeguarding National Security Bill, which has been under scrutiny for provisions such as life imprisonment for 'treason' and 'insurrection,' in a special session on Tuesday. Hong Kong's Legislative Council had introduced the bill known as Article 23 on March 8, and Chief Executive John Lee had urged the need to pass the law "as soon as possible" given an "increasingly complex" geopolitics backdrop. Chiu highlighted that the bill was deliberated on, amended, and passed within 11 days — a record time in Hong Kong's legislative history.
Persons: John Lee, Hong, Dominic Chiu, Chiu, Organizations: Hong, Legislative, National, China &, Eurasia Group, Hong Kong's Legislative Locations: Hong Kong, China, China & Northeast Asia, Hong Kong's
In the past decade, Putin and Xi have crushed what little remained of domestic opposition on their paths to absolute power. Advertisement"Both Putin and Xi's careers were forged as highly effective backroom operators forging relationships of dependency and patronage," he said. GREG BAKER via Getty ImagesDover said it would be a mistake to see Putin and Xi simply as dictators operating by arbitrary fiat. Both, he said, had built effective networks of loyalists capable of responding to crises and enacting their ambitious strategies to seize more global power. Xi and Putin bond over hatred of Western powerIt's on the global stage that the synergy between the leaders is of growing significance and growing alarm to Western leaders.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Putin, It's, Xi, Graeme Thompson, Robert Dover, Li, notionally, Korea's, GREG BAKER, Getty Images Dover, Xi's, Thompson Organizations: Service, Business, Reuters, Eurasia Group, Hollywood, Getty, University of Hull, Communist Party, US, National People's, of, People, Getty Images, Central, Putin, Beijing Locations: China, Russia, Soviet Union, Moscow, Hong Kong, Beijing, Dover, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Taiwan, Putin Russia, East Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPotential U.S. TikTok ban: Lawmakers have yet to present a 'smoking gun,' Eurasia Group saysXiaomeng Lu, geo-technology director at Eurasia Group, says "I haven't seen a smoking gun in the public domain," adding that U.S. lawmakers would need to "show more proof" to bolster their case against TikTok.
Persons: Xiaomeng Lu Organizations: Eurasia Group
China has canceled a closely watched annual press conference with Premier Li Qiang. Experts suggest the move indicates Xi Jinping is attempting to control the narrative regarding China's economic health. After all, investors are looking to the event for cues on China's economy, which has been struggling to stage a convincing post-pandemic recovery. AdvertisementInstead of a sustained post-COVID boom, China's economy is beset with major problems including a property crisis , deflationary pressure , and a demographic crisis . But some experts say the cancellation is a sign that Chinese leader Xi Jinping doesn't want anyone questioning his regime.
Persons: Premier Li Qiang, Jinping, , Lou Qinjian, Rick Waters, Waters, Li, Lou, Xi Jinping, Xi, Jonathan Ward, Tom Porter Organizations: Premier, Service, National People's, Eurasia Group, GZERO Media, Hudson Institute Locations: China, Beijing
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty ImagesMoscow is continuing its saber-rattling over the pro-Russian region of Transnistria in Moldova, and analysts are saying that while Russian authorities would find it hard to physically reach the breakaway region to annex it, there are still ways it can stir up pro-Russian unrest — and trouble for Moldova. All U.N. members consider the region to be part of Moldova, which has expressed a desire to reintegrate the region. Similarly to Ukraine, Moldova has a pro-Western government and wants to join the European Union. Problematically for Russia, Moldova and Transnistria are landlocked, sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine. CNBC has asked the Kremlin to comment on concerns that Moscow could look to destabilize Moldova and is awaiting a response.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Svetlov, Russia, Problematically, it's, Ian Bremmer, doesn't, Maia Sandu, Putin, Sergei Lavrov, Abdoulaye Diop, Maxim Shipenkov, Lavrov, Bogdan Tudor Organizations: Getty, Moldovan, Kremlin, Russia's Defense Ministry, European Union, Eurasia Group, Gazprom, Western, CNBC, Foreign Affairs, Cooperation of, Reuters, Russian, West, RIA Novosti, Google, Russian Federation, Institute for, EU, Afp Locations: Kremlin, Moscow, Russian, Transnistria, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine, Moldovan, Romania, Cooperation of Mali, Reuters Russia, Central Asia, USSR, Sochi, Donetsk, Luhansk, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Georgia
A view shows part of the state oil firm Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) refinery in Salamanca. The consultancy expects demand growth to be around 250,000 bpd to 350,000 bpd, less than half of what it was in 2019 — demand growth will not return to the million barrels per day seen between 2015 and 2020. China's oil demand growth this year could be half of pre-Covid 2019 levels, according to Eurasia Group, as key segments of the world's second-largest economy struggle from a slowdown. The incremental fuel demand growth in China that the oil industry has come to literally bank on over the past two decades is no more. China will lose its spot to India as the primary driver for global oil demand through 2030, the International Energy Agency said in a report.
Persons: Petroleos, Linda Giesecke Organizations: Eurasia Group, International Energy Agency, JPMorgan, CNBC Locations: Salamanca . State, Guanajuato, Mexico, Eurasia, China, India
Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia's presidential candidate and defense minister, center, waves to supporters in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024. JAKARTA — Indonesia's Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is set to become the next president in October after voters handed him a strong mandate at the Feb. 14 election. Under Widodo, Indonesia's gross domestic product has grown steadily at around 5% over the past decade — barring the pandemic years of 2020 to 2021. "Because at the end of the day, the voters will compare the economic policies which have been delivered well by the incumbent president with the next president." On the campaign trail, Prabowo's discussions on economic policy were limited, and mainly focused on promises to continue the Widodo administration's signature downstreaming policy.
Persons: Prabowo, Prabowo Subianto, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Joko Widodo, who's, Josua Pardede, Peter Mumford, Erick Thorir, CNBC's Martin Soong Organizations: JAKARTA — Indonesia's, General, Commission, Investors, Permata Bank, Eurasia Group, CNBC Locations: Jakarta, Indonesia, JAKARTA, Asia
Mainland Chinese stocks are trying to rebound from five-year lows and it's starting to look like Beijing is willing to take some action. "My question is, would a recovery in [the] Chinese economy and the stock market be the end to that multi-year rally in Chinese bonds?" If Chinese bond yields started to climb, that would likely indicate investors were rotating out, Papic pointed out. Mainland Chinese stock markets are closed and don't re-open until Monday, Feb. 19. They expect if sentiment remains weak, foreign capital still has scope to sell out of mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks.
Persons: Clocktower, Marko Papic, Xi Jinping, Papic, Nomura, Yi Huiman, Wu Qing, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bloomberg, U.S ., Shanghai Stock Exchange, Eurasia Group, Hong, UBS, Naura Technology Locations: Beijing, Shanghai, China, U.S, Hong Kong, Eurasia, Shenzhen, Sungrow
Biden's age and memory have been a frequent target for his opponents — largely Republicans — who argue that the 81-year-old is not fit for a second term in office. AdvertisementA recent NBC News poll found that 76% of voters, including Democrats, had major or moderate concerns about Biden's age. The special counsel report and the subsequent media gaffes the president made in his Thursday press conference to defend his mental acuity don't help. The special counsel report does raise some important questions about 2024. Advertisement"This is obviously a serious charge for anyone who wants to be president," Dusso said, referring to concerns about Biden's age.
Persons: , Robert K, Hur, Joe Biden, Biden, Beau, Donald Trump, Biden's, Harris, Biden shouldn't, he's, There's, Christian Grose, Grose, Trump, Aaron Dusso, Dusso, Ian Bremmer Organizations: Service, Business, Biden, Trump, Harvard, NBC, Democratic, NBC News, University of Southern, Trump's, Indiana University, Purdue University Indianapolis, Voters, Eurasia Group Locations: willfulness, University of Southern California, Trump
Campaign posters for Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan's former prime minister, along a street ahead of Pakistan's national election in Lahore, Pakistan, on Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. Pakistan's former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif declared victory on Friday in the country's 2024 General Election, one that many Pakistanis and human rights groups are decrying as neither free nor fair. Sharif, 74, cited the Election Commission of Pakistan in saying that his party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), had won the largest share of the national vote. "Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will almost certainly win," Chaudhuri said as the polls opened. A lifetime ban from partaking in politics and multiple corruption convictions for Sharif were overturned by Pakistani courts last year.
Persons: Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan, Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Chaudhuri, Sharif, mending Organizations: Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz, Eurasia Group, CNBC Locations: Lahore, Pakistan, Sharif, South Asia, U.K
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewChina's extended stock market rout was so bad that leader Xi Jinping was set to personally pay attention to it — and it looks like his solution was to fire the country's top markets regulatory late on Wednesday. After all, there were suggestions earlier that authorities are considering a stabilization fund to rescue the flailing stock market. Stock markets in China and Hong Kong have accelerated losses into 2024. The analysts at the Eurasia Group aren't the only ones who say China needs to double down on economic reforms to shore up its economy.
Persons: , Xi Jinping, Wu Qing, Xi, Eswar Prasad, China's Organizations: Service, China Securities Regulatory, Bloomberg, Business, Eurasia Group, Eurasia Group aren't, Cornell University, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing
There's "no chance" China's property sector rebounds, a researcher from the Eurasia Group told Bloomberg. China's real estate sector was once 25% to 30% of the country's GDP, and "there's not really any sector that can fill in that gap." AdvertisementBack in 2021, China's real estate sector went topsy-turvy — and according to one researcher, it's never going to go back to its halcyon days. "The property market contributes about 10% of China's GDP," Anna Ashton from the Eurasia Group told Bloomberg. "There's not really any sector that can fill in that gap, and there's no chance of the property market rebounding to what it was before."
Persons: , turvy, it's, Anna Ashton, There's, there's Organizations: Eurasia Group, Bloomberg, Service, Business Locations: what's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPakistan's elections will 'almost certainly not' be free and fair, analyst saysPramit Pal Chaudhuri, practice head for South Asia at Eurasia Group, says this election is "easily one of the most blatant in terms of the degree of interference by the military."
Persons: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: South Asia
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