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Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday said higher market interest rates may help the Fed slow inflation, and let the central bank "watch and see" if its own policy rate needs to rise again or not. We will see how those higher rates feed into what we do on policy in the coming months." Waller's comments added weight to similar statements this week by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Still, Waller offered some of the most optimistic reads yet on the path of inflation. "We're finally getting very good inflation data," he said.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Paul Ryan, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, We're, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal, Republican, Wisconsin, Dallas Fed, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Utah
The days of rising interest rates could soon be over
  + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
What’s happening: US Treasury rates are white hot — 10-year Treasury yields are near their highest levels since 2007. It also means more expensive mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. US mortgage rates are at 23 year-highs, and home affordability is at its lowest level since 1984.
Persons: haven’t, Philip Jefferson, ” That’s, Lorie Logan, Raphael Bostic, , , ” Bostic, Mary Daly, Bonds, What’s, Birkenstock, Elisabeth Buchwald, Megan Penick, Robinson, Rachel Ramirez, It’s, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Financial, CME, Treasury, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Consumer, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, American Bankers Association, San Francisco Fed, Index, PPI, CPI, New York Stock Exchange, Renaissance, Nature Communications Locations: New York, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovenia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe could move toward a flat yield curve, says Fmr. Dallas Fed President Richard FisherRichard Fisher, Former Dallas Fed President, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss expectations from Thursday's PPI report.
Persons: Richard Fisher Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Former Dallas Fed, PPI
Morning Bid: A window into the Fed's thinking
  + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
They scour every line and often every punctuation mark, for any sign of a shift in thinking. They might be disappointed later on Wednesday when the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting hit the wire. In a statement after the Sept. 20 meeting, Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's more hawkish monetary policy stance, saying that although "people hate inflation", the jury was out on whether the central bank's work in tackling price pressures was done. MARKETS IN 'UNCHARTED TERRITORY'Deutsche Bank says the market is in uncharted territory in terms of the shrinkage in central banks' balance sheets. In the roughly 15 years since the financial crisis, central banks have never sold assets as quickly as they have in the last half-year.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, Jerome Powell, Lorie Logan, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Treasury, Fed, Dallas, ING, Deutsche Bank, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Japan
Insider Today: Israel's next steps
  + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
AdvertisementAdvertisementIn today's big story, we're looking at the latest developments in Israel's war with Hamas, including Israel's devastating airstrikes and a potentially complicated ground invasion of Gaza. What's on deck:Markets: Market experts detail how to cash in on an ailing bond market. Market experts detail how to cash in on an ailing bond market. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Israel war is also impacting another conflict: Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City.
Persons: Jimmy Buffett's, margarita, Caroline Ellison, Sam Bankman, Faiz, NurPhoto, Insider's Kelsey Vlamis, Insider's Chris Panella, Amir Levy, Jake Epstein, Insider's Elias Chavez, David Donabedian, Insider's Bryan Metzger, Brendan McDermid, Jim Rogers, George Soros, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, BRYAN R, SMITH Caroline Ellison, Ellison, Linda Yaccarino, X, Arantza Pena Popo, eBay's, they're, They'll, Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan, Rachael Brennan, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Tech, Getty, CNN, Hamas, CIBC Private Wealth, Ukraine, Washington Post, Republican, Elite, Quantum Fund, Soros Fund Management, Atlanta Fed, Dallas, Fed, Alameda Research, Street, Gaza, Boomers, Republicans, Ohio, The Chicago, Tata Consultancy Services, Sam's Club Locations: Florida, Gaza, Israel, Ukraine, Russia, homebuying, Louisiana, New York City, San Diego, London, New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan: Inflation is going to be sticky getting below 3%Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss September's PPI data, which came in above expectations, the impact on the Fed's inflation fight, rate path outlook, and more.
Persons: Robert Kaplan Organizations: Former Dallas Fed, Dallas Fed, PPI
In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."
Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley
Washington, DC CNN —Most Federal Reserve officials said last month that they expect one more rate hike, according to minutes from their September policy meeting released Wednesday. Some officials said that how fast inflation cools in the coming months will determine how long rates remain elevated. Inflation’s steady descent over the past year, and the job market’s gradual cooldown, gave officials enough reassurance to pause, the minutes showed. The central bank’s latest set of economic projections also showed that most Fed officials expect fewer rate cuts next year, confirming investors’ fears that rates could remain higher for longer. It’s unclear how much higher yields will weigh on economic activity, but several Fed officials have said in public remarks this week that it could mean less action from the Fed.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, , Lorie Logan, Mack Trucks Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Treasury, ” Dallas, Employers, Labor Department, United Auto Workers, UAW Locations: Washington
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The dollar remained steady against major peers on Tuesday, after a pause in its rally following a slight dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials' tone. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the Fed funds rate," said Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan -- a notable shift from previously hawkish rhetoric. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank would need to "proceed carefully" given the recent rise in yields. "There are another 13 Fed speakers scheduled this week which could see this theme develop further," said analysts at Westpac. "The idea that the increases in bond yields have done part of the tightening job appears to be gaining traction among some Fed officials," said OCBC rates strategist Frances Cheung.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Frances Cheung, Ken Cheung, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal, New, East, Swiss, Palestinian, Dallas, Fed, Westpac, Columbus, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, New Zealand, Israeli, Israel, Tokyo, People's Bank of China
(Reuters) - Gold prices edged down on Tuesday after clocking a sharp rise in the last session as risk sentiment improved and bond yields rebounded, while investors awaited the U.S. inflation data due later this week. Gold rose about 1.6% on Monday, its biggest one-day jump in five months, as military clashes between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas boosted demand for safe-haven investments. European stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday as dovish comments from Fed policymakers and easing oil prices helped calm investor nerves. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.7049%, decreasing the appeal for non-yielding bullion. Spot silver fell 0.8% to $21.72 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.3% to $883.97 and palladium dropped 0.8% to $1,130.52.
Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, , Craig Erlam, Erlam, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Kyle Rodda Organizations: Reuters, REUTERS, OANDA, U.S, Consumer, Dallas Fed Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, Israel, Palestinian, U.S . Federal, EU, U.S
Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum. Spot gold gained 0.1% to $1,862.80 per ounce by 0314 GMT, after earlier hitting its highest since Sept. 29. Gold rose about 1.6% on Monday, its biggest one-day jump in five months, as military clashes between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas boosted demand for safe-haven assets and oil. "The events in the Middle East have provided a catalyst for gold to rebound from oversold conditions," said Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst at Capital.com. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $21.85 per ounce, platinum rose 0.3% to $889.11 and palladium climbed 0.5% to $1,144.82.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan Organizations: Aurum, U.S, Federal Reserve, Capital.com, Dallas Fed Locations: Israel, Palestinian, U.S
Dollar slips as dovish Fed speak dials down rate expectations
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar softened on Tuesday along with U.S. interest rate expectations and a fall in Treasury yields as investors detected a slight dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials' tone. The yen held small gains as violence in the Middle East supported buying of safe-haven assets, and last traded firmly at 148.34 per dollar. However comments from two Fed officials turned around the mood and U.S. rate forecasts overnight after noting the recent selloff in bonds might negate the need for further hikes. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank would need to "proceed carefully" given the recent rise in yields. "A handful of other officials, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, are scheduled to speak today.
Persons: , Lorie Logan —, Philip Jefferson, Christopher Waller, Carol Kong, Sterling Organizations: Treasury, Federal, East, Swiss, Dallas, Columbus, New Zealand Locations: Asia, Tokyo
ET, the 2-year Treasury yield was down by over nine basis points to 4.9843%. The 10-year Treasury yield was last more than 12 basis points lower at 4.6571%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as trading resumed after Columbus Day, with investors weighing the potential geopolitical and economic impact of the Israel-Hamas war . Concerns about the implications of the Israel-Hamas conflict continued, with investors considering whether it may affect markets and the global economy. Investors poured into government bonds, which are traditionally seen as safer investments, driving Treasury yields lower.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Columbus, Investors, Hamas, Israel, Federal, Dallas, Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Israel, Gaza
Bond yields plunged lower Tuesday following comments from Fed officials about a rate hike reprieve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he sees no need for further rate hikes to cool down the economy. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rising term premiums on bonds may do the job of rate hikes. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS Treasurys rallied Tuesday, taking a breather after a blistering sell-off, as more Federal Reserve officials suggested further rate hikes may not be needed. More than a year and a half of steady rate hikes has brought the fed funds rate to a 22-year high.
Persons: Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, , Bostic, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Atlanta Fed, Dallas, Service, Federal Reserve, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business Locations: Israel, Dallas
Bond yields tumbled after Fed officials hinted that the end of rate hikes may be near. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks climbed Tuesday, while bond yields dropped following comments from key Fed officials that hinted at the end of rate hikes. Logan, meanwhile, noted that high bond yields may do the trick as far as cooling down the economy.
Persons: , Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, Bostic Organizations: Dow, Treasury, Service, Investors, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business, Nasdaq Locations: Israel, Logan, Dallas
Oct 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The rebound in risk sentiment was largely due to comments from two Fed officials that the recent rise in long-term bond yields and tightening of financial conditions mean the Fed may be done raising rates. The U.S. bond market was closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday but futures traded, and the 10-year Treasury future posted its biggest rise since March. The IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Morocco kick into gear on Tuesday, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and many other leading global policymakers in attendance. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Lori Logan, Philip Jefferson nodded, Janet Yellen, Christine Lagarde, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Waller, Daly Organizations: Dallas, Columbus, Treasury, IMF, World Bank, U.S, European Central Bank, Fed, Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Israel, Gaza, U.S, Lower U.S, Asia, Japan, Pacific, Philippines, Morocco, Marrakech, Kashkari
“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel
"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York
So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.
Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, , Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens
But at the regional level, the IG has yet to weigh in on the trading activities of Rosengren, Kaplan and current Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Both Rosengren and Kaplan have said they followed the Fed rules that governed trading at the time, and their disclosures were approved by Fed lawyers. Conti-Brown praised the central bank's new ethics regime as likely the best in government, which he said casts the IG's work in an even worse light. They have proposed legislation that would make the Fed IG position a presidential appointment requiring confirmation by the Senate, something Bialek has publicly opposed. During a hearing in the Senate in May, Bialek said the Fed had never interfered in his work.
Persons: That's, Jerome Powell, Eric Rosengren, Robert Kaplan, Mark Bialek, Elizabeth Warren, Rick Scott, Peter Conti, Brown, Powell, Richard Clarida, Kaplan, Raphael Bostic, Rosengren, Bostic, Conti, Warren, Scott, Bialek, Clarida, she's, There's, Michael S, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Dallas, Boston Federal Reserve, U.S . Congress, Boston Fed, Dallas Fed, Fed, Democratic, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Reserve Bank, Rosengren, Atlanta Fed, Senate, Committee, Thomson Locations: U.S
Sept. 9, 2021: Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren pledge to divest their stock holdings. Sept. 27, 2021: Kaplan and Rosengren announce their departures from the Fed within hours of one another. Oct. 4, 2021: Powell refers the matter to Fed Inspector General Mark Bialek for a fuller investigation. July 14, 2022: The IG clears Powell and Clarida of wrongdoing over trades that violated the Fed's investment policy. Oct. 14, 2022: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announces what he said were inadvertent violations of policies restricting when Fed officials could trade and invest.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Evelyn Hockstein, Powell, Robert Kaplan, Kaplan, Eric Rosengren, Elizabeth Warren, supportto Kaplan, Rosengren, Mark Bialek, Richard Clarida, Clarida, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Michael S, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Street Journal, Dallas, Boston Fed, Dallas Fed, Democratic U.S, Fed, Rosengren, Boston, New York Times, Atlanta Fed, Senate, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Dallas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell made it very clear the Fed won't abandon the 2% inflation target: Former Dallas Fed presidentRichard Fisher, who served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2005 to 2015, says "the question is the speed with which they get there."
Persons: Powell, Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUnlike other central banks, Bank of Japan is 'marching to a different drummer'Richard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president, says the Bank of Japan had a "unique ecosystem" where it is "very beholden to the diet".
Persons: Richard Fisher Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dallas Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. Dallas Fed President: We're still playing catch-up to the fact people earn less than inflationFormer Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, the state of the economy, recession outlook, and more.
Persons: We're, Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Former Dallas Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan: Organic growth capability of the U.S. economy is limitedRobert Kaplan, former Dallas Fed president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Janet Yellen's thoughts on the stability of the U.S. economy, if economic risks are to the upside or downside, and Kaplan's thoughts on the deficit.
Persons: Robert Kaplan, Janet Yellen's Organizations: Former Dallas Fed, Dallas Fed Locations: U.S
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