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☆ China's deflation risk 'is real,' JPMorgan economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's deflation risk 'is real,' JPMorgan economist saysZhu Haibin, JPMorgan's chief China economist, discusses China's annual parliamentary meeting, the country's economic policies and its growth outlook.

Persons: Zhu Haibin Organizations: JPMorgan Locations: China

☆ Goldman Sachs explains why China's growth rate is falling but more new jobs are expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs explains why China's growth rate is falling but more new jobs are expectedHui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, says that can be attributed to its economy being more service-oriented and labor-intensive.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan Locations: China

☆ How China can rescue itself and restore confidence, according to a UBS economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Market confidence can rebound if Beijing is less hesitant about implementing solutions, specifically those targeting its spanning property sector and domestic consumption. Lower rates would depreciate the yuan, some fear, but this risk would diminish alongside an economic support package, Wang said. Advertisement"The benefit of rate cuts is likely to far outweigh the negative impact of modestly widening the US-China rate gap," she noted.

Persons: Tao Wang, —, Wang Organizations: UBS, FT, Service, Financial Times Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai

☆ China's economy looks like a mess — but some sectors are quietly doing well in its '2-speed economy'
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Meanwhile, its financial markets are bleeding, the property market has gone up in smoke, local government debt appears alarming, and foreign investors are exiting in droves. Real estate — which was a huge part of China's economy — has been hit badly, he said. AdvertisementTravel has picked up after years of pandemic lockdownServices is another pillar of China's economy that Beijing has been trying to build up. AdvertisementThis is in part because new growth industries are not able to take the place of real estate — yet. Because the property market accounts for one-quarter of China's GDP and more than two-thirds of household wealth, its overall drag on China's economy is much greater than whatever is doing well right now.

Persons: —, Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, AllianceBernstein, John Lin, Lin, Donald Trump's, Louise Loo, Wood Mackenzie, AllianceBerstein's Lin, Nomura, Loo Organizations: Service, Business, Bloomberg TV, Oxford Economics, Nomura, Oxford Locations: China, GlobalData.TS, Real, COVID, Beijing, Europe, Taiwan, South Korea

☆ China is heading for a 'lost decade' if it doesn't reform and grow, an analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China risks a "lost decade" of slow growth if it doesn't reform its economy, warns an economist. AdvertisementChina faces a "lost decade" of sluggish economic growth much like Japan if it doesn't reform its economy, according to an economist. "China could certainly have a lost decade of growth," Rory Green, the chief China economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard, wrote in a note on Thursday. Leaders are attempting to create a new political-economic model, one less reliant on debt-fueled property-led growth," wrote Green. Meanwhile, technocrats in China generally believe China needs to reform and grow — or risk a Japan-style lost decade, Green added.

Persons: Beijing's, —, Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, Xi Jinping, Green Organizations: Service, cri sis Locations: China, Japan, GlobalData.TS, Beijing, technocrats

☆ Buy or avoid China? The pros share their take — and stock picks
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But this week, China embarked on monetary easing as it pledged to reduce the amount of liquidity that its banks are required to hold as reserves. Earlier this week, Bloomberg News, citing sources, reported that China is considering a $278 billion package to rescue its stock markets. Andrew Lapping, chief investment officer at Ranmore Fund Management , says the sharp decline in China markets is an "opportunity." "So the stock market is certainly putting much higher equity risk premium ... there are also concerns about policy direction, policy clarity ... Renewable energy: China Longyuan Power Group, China Resources Power.

Persons: Brendan Ahern, CNBC's, Andrew, Winnie Wu, Guy Spier, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, —, Wu, what's, Ahern, Amundi, It's, Morgan Stanley, Michael Bloom, Evelyn Cheng Organizations: Bloomberg, Investors, Ranmore Fund Management, BofA Securities, CCP, JPMorgan, EV, UBS, Baidu, China Communications, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, China Longyuan Power Group, China Resources Power Locations: China, United States, Industrials

☆ China needs to convince investors what will be the next growth driver after property: BofA
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina needs to convince investors what will be the next growth driver after property: BofAWinnie Wu, Bank of America's chief China equity strategist, says questions will have to be raised about whether such a driver will be big enough to boost employment and gross domestic product growth.

Persons: Winnie Wu Organizations: China, Bank of America's Locations: China

☆ China is ramping up stimulus to boost market confidence — but is it enough?
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Starting Feb. 5, the People's Bank of China will allow banks to hold smaller cash reserves, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference, his first in the role. Cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points is set to release 1 trillion yuan ($139.8 billion) in long-term capital, the central bank said. A 2 trillion yuan boost? Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Monday called for much stronger measures to boost market stability and confidence, according to an official readout. Chinese authorities in October already announced the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds, alongside a rare increase in the deficit.

Persons: Gongsheng, Pan Gongsheng, Tao Wang, Ting Lu, a, Lu, Wang, Stocks, Winnie Wu, That's, Li Qiang, Pan, Philip Yin, David Chao, Pan's Organizations: People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Financial, Getty, Visual China, People's Bank of, UBS Investment Bank, Wednesday, National Financial Regulatory Administration, UBS, Bank of America's, Bloomberg, PBOC, Citi, U.S, Asia Pacific, CNBC Locations: BEIJING, CHINA, Beijing, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Hong Kong, capitulating, Japan, Invesco

☆ Bank of America, KraneShares strategists discuss impact of PBOC easing
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of America and KraneShares strategists discuss the impact of China's PBOC easing on its marketsWinnie Wu, Bank of America's chief China equity strategist, says recent policy measures to stabilize the stock market help put a floor "to stop some of this capitulation," but a "fundamental turnaround" will be needed if investors are to return to the Chinese market.

Persons: Wu Organizations: Email Bank of America, Bank of America's Locations: China

☆ China's economic growth is set to slow in 2024. Here's what Wall Street is predicting
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China was due Wednesday to release GDP figures for 2023, and previously announced an official target of around 5% growth for the year. Despite significant growth in sectors such as tourism and electric cars, China's economy last year did not rebound from the pandemic as quickly as many banks had initially expected. watch nowThe International Monetary Fund in November also cited China's policy announcements as a reason for its decision to raise the 2023 growth forecast to 5.4%, from 5% previously. However, the IMF said it still expected China's growth to slow in 2024 to 4.6% "amid continuing weakness in the property market and subdued external demand." In the long term, analysts generally expect China's economy to slow further from a high base.

Persons: Pan Jianyong, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Li Qiang, Haibin Zhu, Li Organizations: Co, Getty, Visual China, BEIJING —, Economic, Tuesday, UBS, Citi, JPMorgan, CNBC, China, China Economic, Monetary Fund Locations: MEISHAN, CHINA, Sichuan, Meishan, Sichuan Province, China, Davos, Beijing, decelerating

☆ Goldman Sachs says these China stocks can win even if there's a repeat of Japan's lost decades
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Goldman Sachs calls the China story today one of "rebalancing," and has picked 40 buy-rated stocks to play the theme. They predict certain consumer names, artificial intelligence companies and rising global players will be among the Chinese stocks that can do well. December data and fourth-quarter GDP due out late Tuesday New York time may give more clues on China's economic trajectory — and whether policymakers need to act. For China's economic outlook, comparisons to Japan may ultimately be more academic as the debate has become more about the extent to which national security has replaced economic growth as the priority. "Very often I'm asked the question, will China ignore development as it talks more about security?"

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Japan's, Kinger Lau, Morgan, Robin Xing, Goldman, Lau, Li Qiang, Liu, SICC, Arthur Kroeber, Dragonomics, Liu Jianchao, Michael Bloom Organizations: Beijing, China Equity, China New Economy Summit, China, New, Invesco, Central Commission, Financial, Economic Affairs, Laboratories, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, U.S, StarPower Semiconductor, Wire China, Communist Party's, Foreign Locations: China, Japan, Hong Kong, Beijing, New York, Davos, Shanghai, U.S, Shenzhen, Europe

☆ China's annual exports drop for the first time in seven years
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Aly Song | ReutersBEIJING — China's annual exports fell for the first time in seven years in 2023, even as shipments in December beat expectations, customs data showed Friday. But for 2023, exports fell 4.6%, the first such annual drop since a 7.7% decline in 2016, according to Wind Information. By country, the U.S. remained China's largest trading partner. Russia was a rare bright spot, with China's exports to the country climbing nearly 47% in 2023, and imports rising almost 13%. China's exports in most product categories fell in 2023, with machinery, boats and home appliances among the few exceptions.

Persons: Aly Song, Caixin, Larry Hu, Zhiwei Zhang Organizations: Reuters, Information, of Southeast, Nations, European Union, U.S ., China, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Yangshan, Shanghai, China, Reuters BEIJING, U.S, Russia

☆ Beijing is making its biggest move yet to patch up the property crisis threatening to blow up China's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China is drafting a "white list" of property developers for bank financing, per Bloomberg. China's massive property sector is in a slump, adding to the country's post-COVID economic woes. AdvertisementChina's finally starting to do something about the three-year property crisis that's been weighing on its COVID-scarred economy. China's real-estate sector has been mired in a crisis since the second half 2021 when a liquidity crisis at Evergrande — once China's second-largest developer — came into public view. AdvertisementStill, not everyone is convinced Beijing's property "white list" will be the solution to China's property problems.

Persons: —, China's, Nomura, it's, Rory Green, Green, White Knight, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, BI, Mizuho Bank, Business Locations: China, Beijing, Asia

☆ Goldman Sachs expects China stocks to make first annual gain in 4 years in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"Our view is very clear," Kinger Lau, Goldman Sachs chief China equity strategist, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday. China rebalancingWith just under six weeks of the year remaining, the MSCI China and CSI 300 indexes are both poised for third-straight annual losses. Goldman Sachs noted both mutual and hedge fund mandates globally are running with multi-year low allocations in Chinese stocks. Key changesIn their latest outlook paper, Goldman Sachs strategists upgraded the food and beverage sector to overweight from market weight and technology hardware sector to overweight from underweight. Real estate has been a key driver of the downturn in the Chinese economy after Beijing started cracking down on the debt levels of mainland developers in 2020.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Kinger Lau, CNBC's, it's, Lau Organizations: Getty, 20th Central Committee, Chinese Communist Party, CSI Locations: Beijing, China

☆ Exclusive: China's state banks seen swapping and selling dollars for yuan
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chinese Yuan and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - China's major state-owned banks were seen exchanging yuan for U.S. dollars in the onshore swap market and selling those dollars in spot currency markets this week, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Some market participants said state banks might be trying to speed the yuan's gains and spur exporters to convert more of their FX receipts into yuan. The selling of dollars by state banks caused the onshore spot yuan to briefly touch 7.1296 per dollar, firmer than its daily official guidance for the first time in four months. To me, it looks like they are doing preparatory work ahead of a policy rate cut," said Kiyong Seong, lead Asia macro strategist at Societe Generale.

Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, Kiyong Seong, Zhi Xiaojia, Zhi, Simon Cameron, Moore, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Federal, People's Bank of China, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, United States

☆ Goldman Sachs strategist discusses China's equity outlook for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs strategist discusses China's equity outlook for 2024Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the firm's underweight position on China property and banks, and its overweight position on tech and services.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Kinger Lau Locations: China

☆ China property market: There's a 'self-fulfilling negative feedback loop,' says Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina property market: There's a 'self-fulfilling negative feedback loop,' says Goldman SachsHui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, says government policy should provide a "clear roadmap."

Persons: Goldman Sachs Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs Organizations: China Locations: China

☆ China's unfinished property projects are 20 times the size of Country Garden
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

HANGZHOU, CHINA - NOVEMBER 15, 2023 - An aerial photo shows a new property under construction in Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, Nov 15, 2023. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)BEIJING — The size of unfinished, pre-sold homes in China is about 20 times the size of property developer Country Garden as of the end of 2022, according to a Nomura report on Wednesday. "We estimate that there are around 20 million units of unconstructed and delayed pre-sold homes," said Nomura's Chief China Economist Ting Lu and a team. About 3.2 trillion yuan ($440 billion) is needed to complete those remaining units, according to the analysts' estimates. Ensuring construction of the homes has been a government priority since delays make people less willing to buy new apartments.

Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Publishing, Getty Images, U.S, Bloomberg News, China Locations: HANGZHOU, CHINA, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, BEIJING

Lending data from China's central bank offers a glimpse of government priorities: as of the end of September, outstanding loans to the troubled property sector fell 0.2% year-on-year but lending to the manufacturing sector jumped 38.2%. This time, the government's focus is narrower, targeting high-tech and "advanced manufacturing", a goal laid out in 2021 in the 14th five-year plan. It grew 11.3% in the first nine months of 2023 year-on-year, compared with 6.3% for overall manufacturing investment, according to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics. For example, Guangdong province has increased lending to both high-tech and advanced manufacturing by about 45%, state media reported. During the first half of 2023, outstanding loans to the high-tech manufacturing sector in the eastern province of Shandong jumped 67%.

Persons: Jens Eskelund, Eskelund, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Frederic Neumann, Neumann, Tao Wang, Wang, Fu, Lu Zhengwei, Siyi Liu, Kripa Jayaram, Robert Birsel Organizations: Rights, European Chamber of Commerce, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, U.S, Reuters Graphics, overcapacity, HSBC, UBS, China's National Bureau of Statistics, Rystad Energy, EV, China Passenger Car Association, Bank, Industrial Bank, Thomson Locations: Suqian, Jiangsu province, China, CHINA, Rights BEIJING, Europe, Beijing, San Francisco, Xi, Asia, Guangdong province, Shandong, Dongguan, Shanghai

☆ China suffers its first foreign investment deficit as US tensions and anti-spying laws spark a western exodus
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China just posted a quarterly foreign investment deficit for the first time. Officials have released foreign direct investment figures each quarter for the past 25 years – and it's the first time the gauge has turned negative, Reuters reported. The deficit suggests that western countries and companies are shunning China with Sino-US tensions steadily rising and new anti-spying laws spooking international investors. Analysts flagged that clampdown as one factor driving the decline in foreign direct investment. The foreign direct investment deficit is far from the only economic headache that Beijing faces.

Persons: China's, —, Joe Biden, Duncan Wrigley, Mark Mobius, he'd Organizations: Service, State Administration of Foreign, Reuters, Analysts, Macroeconomics, Bloomberg, " International, Micron, Bain, Co Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai

☆ China's new bonds to help economic recovery, official says, as budget deficit rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING, Oct 25 (Reuters) - China's new sovereign bonds will help bolster the economic recovery, China's vice finance minister Zhu Zhongming said on Wednesday, as the government's stepped-up fiscal stimulus sharply raises its budget deficit. The government's debt level is still within a reasonable range, the minister said, without giving details. Analysts at UBS expect the government to raise its budget deficit and special local bond quotas for 2024, alongside further cuts in interest rates and bank reserve requirement ratios. China's parliament has also approved a bill to allow local governments to front load part of 2024 local bond quotas. Local governments had been told to complete the issuance of the 2023 quota of 3.8 trillion yuan in special local bonds by September to fund infrastructure projects.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Zhu Zhongming, Zhu, Ting Lu, Ellen Zhang, Kevin Yao, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Nomura, UBS, Thomson Locations: Rights BEIJING, Beijing, China

☆ Why China's 1 trillion yuan debt plan isn't necessarily such a big deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Kim Kyung-Hoon | ReutersBEIJING — Chinese authorities late Tuesday announced one of the biggest changes to the national budget in years, along with the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in ($137 billion) in government bonds. Chinese state media said the 1 trillion yuan in central government issuance is set to be transferred to local governments in two parts, half for this year and half for next year. "It is roughly around 5% of transfer revenues or 2% of total revenues for the local governments," Yin said. "Note a special program has already been started since October, allowing local governments to issue special refinancing bonds to swap their outstanding hidden debt. Goldman Sachs analysts estimated the early issuance could be as much as 2.7 trillion yuan, based on prior government practice.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Hoon, Larry Hu, it's, Ting Lu, Yin, Nomura's Lu, Ricky Tsang, they're, Tsang, —, Goldman Sachs, Macquarie's Hu, It's Organizations: Reuters, Macquarie, Monetary Fund, People's Bank of Locations: Beijing, Reuters BEIJING, China, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China

☆ China's Q3 GDP seen slowing as Beijing races to revive growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.4% in July-September from a year earlier, according to economists polled by Reuters, slowing from the 6.3% pace in the second quarter. Separate data on September activity is expected to show retail sales growth picking up but factory output slowing. Economic growth is seen hitting 5.0% this year, according to the poll, broadly in line Beijing’s full-year target, before slowing to 4.5% in 2024. For its part, the central bank is constrained by how much it can ease monetary policy due to worries about adding pressure on the yuan, which has tumbled 5.7% this year. The central bank cut the RRR in September to boost liquidity and support the economic recovery, its second reduction this year.

Persons: Thomas Peter, ”, Ting Lu Organizations: Central Business District, REUTERS, Gross, Reuters, Nomura Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China

☆ Morgan Stanley says China's reflation journey will be 'slow and bumpy'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley says China's reflation journey will be 'slow and bumpy'More reflationary and restructuring policy at the Chinese Communist Party's December central economic work conference will help lift inflation print to a more normal range, said Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's chief China economist.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, China's, Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Communist Locations: China

☆ China's domestic tourism is finally back to pre-pandemic levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Both figures were lower than what Chinese state media had earlier cited the ministry as predicting: 896 million trips and 782.5 billion yuan in domestic tourism revenue. Golden Week domestic tourism revenue was 753.43 billion yuan ($103.24 billion) — a 1.5% increase from that in 2019, according to China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism . The number of domestic tourist trips rose by 4.1% from 2019 to 826 million during the latest eight-day holiday, the ministry said. BEIJING — China's big "Golden Week" holiday saw domestic tourism rebound to around pre-pandemic levels, while overseas travel had yet to fully recover, according to official figures. That was also below earlier predictions, reported by state media, which forecast nearly 1.6 million trips across the border a day.

Persons: Morgan, Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley, Trip.com, Jane Sun, CNBC's Eunice Yoon Organizations: China, Golden, China's Ministry of Culture, Tourism, BEIJING, National Immigration Administration, China's Labor Locations: China, Beijing, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Switzerland, Spain, Turkey, France, Europe

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