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No country is better positioned to benefit from the technology's rise, Capital Economics said. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementArtificial intelligence could transform the global economy – and it's the US that's best placed to benefit, according to Capital Economics. AdvertisementAdvertisement"AI is likely to help the US economy sustain its primacy over China in terms of GDP measured at market exchange rates," the strategists wrote.
Persons: , Mark Williams, Williams Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Country Locations: Singapore, Asia, Capital Economics China, China
Evergrande stock crashes again as fears of collapse grow
  + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Hong Kong CNN —Shares of Evergrande Group crashed again on Wednesday as fears grew of a potential liquidation of the company, the poster child of China’s property crisis. Evergrande’s woes deepened this week, after it warned that its offshore debt restructuring plan may be in trouble because of a regulatory probe into its main subsidiary in mainland China. That was thanks to a rise in revenue because of a “short boom” in China’s property market earlier this year, the company said then. Evergrande has been trying to implement a government-supervised restructuring of its debts, which stood at $328 billion at the end of June. Evergrande was forced to cancel meetings with creditors scheduled for this week, in part because recent sales have been weaker than it expected.
Persons: Evergrande, , Jun Rong Yeap, Frederic Neumann, ” — Marc Stewart Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Evergrande Group, Hong, Hong Kong, IG Group, HSBC, CNN Locations: Hong Kong, China, Evergrande, United States, Asia, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's economic slowdown: Beijing is 'not as alarmed' as many people are, economist saysLouis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at S&P Global Ratings, says that's why "we've seen that piecemeal manner in which they are looking at supporting the economy."
Persons: Louis Kuijs Locations: Beijing, Asia
After a stellar 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% this quarter and then drop to 6.0% in the October-December period before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024. "A lot of the drivers that drove the really strong growth from the middle of 2021 to last year have been exhausted. A weak external backdrop is weighing on Indian economic growth as well as sluggish private consumption and sluggish investment." A majority of economists, 22 of 36, who answered an additional question said the risks to their FY 2023/2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside. Government measures should cool food prices in the coming months, but rising oil prices will likely place upward pressure on headline inflation."
Persons: Narendra Modi's, we're, Miguel Chanco, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Sujith Pai, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Pantheon, Reserve Bank of India, That's, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Asia
Hong Kong CNN —Evergrande Group has just missed another bond payment, casting further doubt over the future of the embattled property developer at the epicenter of China’s real estate crisis. China’s property industry once accounted for as much as 30% of the country’s gross domestic product. Questions about financial stabilityConcerns over China’s economic stability have resurfaced, driven by the deepening financial crisis at Evergrande, said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management. On Sunday, Evergrande surprised investors with an announcement that it was unable to issue new notes due to the investigation into Hengda. It was the first criminal probe launched against Evergrande since it was hit by the debt crisis nearly two years ago.
Persons: Evergrande, Tao Wang, Stephen Innes, , Innes, Mengchen Zhang, Marc Stewart Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Evergrande, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Getty, China, Asia Economics, UBS, CNN, Evergrande Locations: China, Hong Kong, AFP, Asia, Evergrande
Supply chains are diversifying away from China, causing a shift in global-trade patterns. Data shows that while manufacturing activity for end products has been moving out of China, supply chains haven't decoupled from the country. "Companies are moving manufacturing processes to other countries, including parts of Asia and North America, to diversify their supply chains. Companies are moving their supply chains out of China. As Insider reported in April, even Chinese companies are moving their supply chains out of China to avoid risks.
Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, Misha Govshteyn, Nomura, Sonal Varma, reexported, , Frederic Neumann, Yukon Huang, Genevieve Slosberg, Lu Yucong, Carnegie's Huang, MaroFab's Govshteyn Organizations: Service, Apple, Mazda, Asia Supply, Nomura Holdings, East, HSBC, Association of Southeast, Nations, Carnegie Asia Program, Financial Times Locations: China, Southeast Asia, Wall, Silicon, Asia, Washington, Beijing, Vietnam, Bangladesh, North America, Houston, South Korea, Hong Kong, China's, India, Japan, Europe, Yukon, America, United States, Guangdong
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndian rice export ban has an 'unintended side effect,' economist saysFrederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, discusses the ban's impact on regional markets such as Malaysia and the Philippines.
Persons: Frederic Neumann Organizations: HSBC Locations: Asia, Malaysia, Philippines
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's EV focus is in the pursuit of self-sufficiency, says Piper Sandler's Nancy LazarDerek Scissors, Asia economist at the American Enterprise Institute and Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at Piper Sandler, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss China's effort to become self-sufficient, China's effort to grow its global auto market, and locating the timeline for peak pessimism of China's economy.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar Derek Scissors, Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler Organizations: American Enterprise Institute Locations: Asia
China's trade slump narrows as stabilisation signs emerge
  + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Joe Cash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
“The trade data is marginally better, but I don’t think we should be reading too much into that: trade is still contracting,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “There is a bit of a sign here of stabilisation, but I think there’s still a long way to go,” he added. “Looking ahead, whether China’s trade growth has already hit the bottom will hinge on several factors, the most important of which is obviously domestic demand.”Governments around the world are nervous about China’s economic slowdown with many exporting nations highly dependent on the country’s market for growth. However, trade with Japan dropped sharply, with outbound shipments from China to its neighbour down 20% in August year-on-year, while imports worsened by 17%. China posted a trade surplus of $68.36 billion in August, compared with a forecast $73.80 billion and a July figure of $80.6 billion.
Persons: Aly, , Frederic Neumann, Zhou Hao, it’s, Nie Wen Organizations: REUTERS, HSBC, Guotai, , Australian, Hwabao Trust Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, United States, Southeast Asia, Australia, Japan, Tokyo, Brazil
However, in a hopeful sign for growth, conditions did not materially worsen even though the survey showed factories under persistent pressure. China's major manufacturing rivals in the region Japan and South Korea also reported sharp declines in output on Thursday. "It's too early to tell, but today's print suggests that a sequential uptick in growth activity in the third quarter could still be possible," said Louise Loo, senior economist with Oxford Economics. Policymakers remain under pressure to boost domestic demand as the global economy continues to slow. Going forward, "the actual implementation and effectiveness of policy support will be the key indicator to watch," he added.
Persons: It's, Louise Loo, Pan Gongsheng, Frederic Neumann, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Joe Cash, Qiaoyi Li, Ellen Zhang, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Oxford Economics, Reuters, People's Bank of, Global Research Asia, HSBC, Jones, Thomson Locations: Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, Rights BEIJING, Japan, South Korea, People's Bank of China, United States, Europe, Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailXi Jinping doesn't like private sector and foreign companies, says AEI's Derek ScissorsDerek Scissors, Asia economist at the American Enterprise Institute, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss U.S. Secretary Raimondo's visit to China, the impact of upcoming Commerce Department decisions on semiconductor export in China, and the possibility of license exemptions for export controls.
Persons: Derek, Raimondo's Organizations: American Enterprise Institute, U.S Locations: Asia, China
CNN —One year after catastrophic floods devastated swathes of Pakistan, some 4 million children in the South Asian nation remain without access to safe water, the United Nations children’s agency has warned. “Vulnerable children living in flood-affected areas have endured a horrific year,” Abdullah Fadil, UNICEF Representative in Pakistan, said in the statement. “The climate-related disaster deepened pre-existing inequities for children and families in affected districts,” UNICEF said in the statement. Children pick vegetables from water at a flooded market after heavy rainfall in Lahore on June 26, 2023. Fadil from UNICEF said the agency has called on the government of Pakistan and its partners to “increase and sustain investment in basic social services for children and families.”He added: “We cannot forget the children of Pakistan.
Persons: ” Abdullah Fadil, , Asim Hafeez, Dera Allah Yar, Fida Hussain, Imran Khan, Khan, , Stephen Innes, Arif Ali, Fadil Organizations: CNN, United Nations, UNICEF, UNICEF Representative, Bloomberg, Getty, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Capital Economics, Analysts Locations: Pakistan, Karachi Division, Sindh province, Pakistan’s, Dera, Jaffarabad district, Balochistan, AFP, Asia, Lahore, South Asia, Afghanistan, India
So how should central banks coordinate when their economies are headed in opposite directions? And since the start of the pandemic, international monetary policy has looked striking similar. From the United States to Saudi Arabia to Malaysia, many major world economies slashed interest rates to historically low levels in March 2020 to stimulate their economies amid Covid lockdowns. Central bankers do “talk a lot, and we see each other quite a bit,” said Andrew Bailey, Bank of England’s president, at a June event hosted by the European Central Bank. “Adopting formal global monetary policy cooperation could plausibly erode central bank credibility and public support for central bank independence,” former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said at a 2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference.
Persons: Jackson, , Nick Bennenbroek, , Andrew Bailey ,, Richard Clarida, “ There’s, ” Bennenbroek, Jerome Powell Organizations: Los Angeles CNN, Kansas City Federal Reserve, Andrew Bailey , Bank of England’s, European Central Bank, Federal, Asia Economic Policy Locations: lockstep, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, United States, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, China, Wells, Asia
China's economy is at risk of falling into a debt-deflation loop, according to Morgan Stanley. That's a scenario where prices fall, debt rises, while economic growth stagnates. But policymakers could avoid that future if they keep interest rates below a key level. "China's policymakers will need to act forcefully. That trifecta of obstacles means it could be possible that China's economy could do even worse than Japan did in the 90s, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Chetan Ahya, Ahya, Paul Krugman Organizations: Service, Bank of Japan Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Asia, Japan
Greg Baker | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Without more stimulus, China is increasingly likely to miss its growth target of around 5% this year, economists said. "In such a case, economic momentum may stay subdued in the rest of the year and China may miss this year's growth target of around 5%," she said. China is the world's second-largest economy, and accounted for nearly 18% of global GDP in 2022, according to World Bank data. "We also see bigger downside risk to our 4.9% y-o-y growth forecast for both Q3 and Q4, and it is increasingly possible that annual GDP growth this year will miss the 5.0% mark," the report said. Growth vs. national securityChinese authorities' initial crackdown on real estate developers in 2020 was an attempt to curb their high reliance on growth.
Persons: Greg Baker, Tao Wang, spender, Nomura Ting Lu, Ting Lu, haven't, Louise Loo, Loo, that's, Xiangrong Yu, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Wildau Organizations: Afp, Getty, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, China, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust, Information, Beijing, CNBC, Baoshang Bank, Anbang Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, Asia, People's Bank of China
The 0.2% fall month-on-month came after June's flat reading, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. The decline in home prices comes amid a worsening debt crisis at major developers, sliding property investment and home sales. Among 70 cities, 49 saw a fall in new home prices month-on-month in July from 38 cities the previous month. However, most economists expect the downside trend in home sales and prices to persist for while. "Without additional major policy easing and/or fiscal support, property sales and investment may weaken further or stay at the bottom for longer than assumed in our baseline," said Wang.
Persons: Jason Lee, Goldman Sachs, Wang Tao, Wang, Qiaoyi Li, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Goldman, Asia Economics, China, UBS Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Wangjing, China, BEIJING, Zhengzhou, Xian, Fuzhou
In Asia, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.2% higher, following a 1.2% tumble a day earlier. Producer prices fell for a 10th consecutive month. "It is not likely to see China entering a full deflation path as core CPI is still resilient and driven by services." "Having said that, if we do not see further improvement in consumer sentiment, it is possible to see growing deflation risks in China." Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $86.00 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 0.2% to $82.73.
Persons: Issei Kato, Gary Ng, HSI, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Dow, Stella Qiu, Ellen Zhang, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, PPI, Asia Pacific, Reuters, Wall, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Italy, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Brazil, Beijing
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.4% higher after a 1.2% tumble a day earlier. Closely watched China data on Wednesday showed consumer prices fell 0.3% in July from a year ago, the first decline since February 2021, although it was slightly better than the forecast of a 0.4% drop. Producer prices fell for a 10th consecutive month. 10-year yields slipped 2 basis points to 4.004%, after falling 5 basis points overnight to as low as 3.9840%, a one-week trough. Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $86.02 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 0.2% to $82.73.
Persons: Issei Kato, Carol Kong, Kong, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Dow, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Japan's Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Wall, Nasdaq, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Italy, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Brazil
While an ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggest the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines. Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Steven Ricchiuto, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, outlays, Commerce Department, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Mizuho Securities USA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Natixis Investment, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore
The Aussie fell 1.4% to $0.6626, wiping out the 0.87% gains it clocked in July and set for its sharpest daily drop since March. "I think it was right that the RBA held today, given trimmed mean inflation and unemployment matched the RBA's forecasts. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. The euro eased 0.2% to $1.0975, not too far from an almost three-week low touched on Friday. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
Persons: David Gray, Matt Simpson, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan's, City, Federal, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore
"As the new line in the sand is 1%, it would make sense to broaden the YCC band by this level." Investor attention during Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "However, we expect any post RBA strength in Aussie to be short lived given the weak global economic outlook." Bank of England's policy meeting on Thursday is in the spotlight, with markets evenly divided between a 25- and 50-basis-point increase. Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Carlos Casanova, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Organizations: of Japan's, Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Survey, Bank of, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Singapore
Yen eases to 3-week low as traders weigh BOJ shift, focus on RBA
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen slipped to a fresh three-week low on Tuesday as traders pondered the Bank of Japan's steps last week to tweak its yield curve control policy, while the Australian dollar was soft ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision. "As the new line in the sand is 1%, it would make sense to broaden the YCC band by this level." Investor attention during Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "However, we expect any post RBA strength in Aussie to be short lived given the weak global economic outlook." Bank of England's policy meeting on Thursday is in the spotlight, with markets evenly divided between a 25- and 50-basis-point increase.
Persons: Carlos Casanova, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton Organizations: of Japan's, Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Survey, Bank of Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam saw manufacturing activity contract in July, the surveys showed, highlighting the strain sluggish Chinese demand is inflicting on the region. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in July from 50.5 in June, missing analysts' forecasts of 50.3 and marking the first decline in activity since April. "Falling new orders, bleak employment prospects and high inventory levels point to subdued factory activity in the coming months." Japan's final au Jibun Bank PMI fell to 49.6 in July, down from 49.8 in June, due to weak domestic and overseas demand. In India, growth in manufacturing activity slowed for a second month, but the pace of expansion remained healthy and beat expectations.
Persons: forestalling, PMIs, Shivaan Tandon, Leika Kihara, Sonali Paul Organizations: PMI, TOKYO, P Global, Emerging, Capital Economics, Jibun, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Japan, South Korea, Asia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Emerging Asia, India
Six out of the nine private surveys released Tuesday showed that manufacturing activity in Asia's major producers again contracted in July. In addition to China, readings for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam also signaled contraction in manufacturing activity. "The data reaffirm our view that external demand will constitute a headwind to growth in the second half of 2023." PMI manufacturing surveys are leading indicators of economic activity. A reading above 50 points to an expansion in activity, while a reading below that level suggests a contraction.
Persons: PMIs, Shivaan Tandon Organizations: Factories, Emerging, Capital Economics, PMI Locations: East China's Shandong province, Asia, China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Emerging Asia
It beat the median 0.5% rise forecast in a Reuters survey of economists and marked the biggest quarterly growth since the second quarter of 2022. "Qualitatively, it is not so positive as the headline figure indicates," said Park Sang-hyun, chief economist at HI Investment Securities. Asia's fourth-largest economy is expected to grow 1.4% in 2023, down from 2.6% in 2022, according to the latest forecasts by the central bank and the government. "The upshot is that the central bank, enabled by falling inflation, is likely to step in to support the economy by loosening monetary policy in the coming months," said Shivaan Tandon, emerging Asia economist at Capital Economics. Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Ed Davies, Kim Coghill and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Asia's, Shivaan Tandon, Jihoon Lee, Ed Davies, Kim Coghill, Sam Holmes Organizations: Gross, Bank of, HI Investment Securities, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: SEOUL, Bank of Korea, Asia
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