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☆ Breakingviews: El Nino will brew up potent new economic storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

It looks likely that the El Nino weather phenomenon has returned, according to both the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Reuters GraphicsBy one reckoning, a single El Nino event might seem manageable. The direct impact of El Nino- and La Nina-affected weather on sowing, growing and harvesting is not the only economic consideration. On June 8 the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center issued an advisory that El Nino conditions “are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter”. The highest temperature reached in any past El Nino was 2.6 degrees Celsius above average in 2016.

Persons: El, Nina, Gabrielle, It’s, there’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Katrina Hamlin, Thomas Shum Organizations: MELBOURNE, Reuters, El, U.S . National Oceanographic, Atmospheric Administration, Australian, of Meteorology, International Monetary Fund, University of Dartmouth, El Nino, Nina, Rabobank, Barclays, World Meteorological Organisation, Center, Thomson Locations: India, Thailand, Vietnam, El Nino, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Europe, China, Southeast Asia, United States, Oceania, Australia, Western Australia, Delhi, Ukraine

☆ El Nino will brew up potent new economic storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

☆ Meituan's insider AI deal does not compute
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Meituan describes Light Year as a leading AI innovator in China. Its backers include Meituan CEO Wang Xin and Sequoia Capital China's HongShan fund, which is controlled by a Meituan non-executive director. Meituan is paying out roughly $234 million in cash and covering some $50 million-worth of Light Year's convertible bonds. Interestingly, Meituan's total outlay is roughly equal to the target's net cash position. For investors, understanding this AI deal is no small challenge.

Persons: Wang Huiwen, Meituan, Wang Xin, Robyn Mak, ’, crouch, Eli Lilly, Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Meituan, Sequoia Capital, Twitter, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, HK, China

HONG KONG, June 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - There's plenty to like about Swire Pacific's (0019.HK) Coca-Cola sale. Little wonder Swire's Hong Kong shares rallied as much as 8% on Thursday morning. The Coke sale is refreshing for investors, but only until the rest of Swire Pacific regains its fizz. Upon completion of the sale, Swire Pacific will distribute HK$11.7 billion in special dividends to its shareholders. The company also plans to enter into a 13-year agreement to provide management services to Swire Coca-Cola USA and receive an annual fee of at least HK$117 million.

Persons: Swire Pacific's, Swire, John Swire, Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, HK, Cathay Pacific, Swire, Cola, John Swire & Sons, Cola Europacific Partners, Citi, Cathay, Swire Pacific, Hong Kong, Cola USA, Hong, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hong Kong, China, Cathay Pacific

☆ Mega-merger gives Indian lender new lease on life
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS), the country’s largest private lender, is set in July to complete its merger with its parent, partner and 26% shareholder Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) (HDFC.NS). That’s a great opportunity for the larger, streamlined HDFC Bank – until now it sold most home loans it originated to its parent. However, the share of mortgages in HDFC Bank’s portfolio will rise close to 30%, compared to SBI’s 20%. HDFC Bank remains a fixer-upper in a couple of important respects, though. Housing Development Finance Corporation created HDFC Bank in 1994 and remains a 26% shareholder.

Persons: Sashidhar Jagdishan, That’s, HDFC, Jagdishan, Breakingviews, Srinivasan Vaidyanathan, Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, HDFC Bank, Housing Development Finance Corporation, –, Bank of India, Mahindra Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Asia, China, United States, watchdogs, Credila

☆ Toyota shareholders make 15% the new win-win
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Both Glass Lewis and ISS reckon there aren’t enough properly independent directors on the board, even though Toyota complies with the requirements laid down by the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Yet ISS held back from advising shareholders vote against them because it would risk “increasing management dominance of the board”. Toyota is a laggard on both and is now under pressure to get powerful investors back onside. CONTEXT NEWSMore than 15% of voting shareholders were against reappointing Chairman Akio Toyoda to Toyota Motor’s board at its annual meeting on June 14, the Japanese carmaker said on June 15. About 15% of shareholders who voted supported a resolution asking the company to issue an annual review of its climate lobbying activities.

Persons: Akio Toyoda, Glass Lewis, Glass Lewis plumped, Toyoda, Masahiko Oshima, carmaker, Pete Sweeney, Thomas Shum Organizations: MELBOURNE, Reuters, Toyota, ISS, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Nikkei, California Public, New York, New York City Comptroller, Twitter, Thomson Locations: New York City

☆ Windfall taxes get a breezy airing Down Under
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MELBOURNE, June 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Queensland has just done global proponents of windfall taxes a favour. More than a third of the total came courtesy of three new tiers Treasurer Cameron Dick added to the levy last June after coal prices quickly quadrupled. For starters, the changes only come into effect when the price of coal is really high. Rival Whitehaven Coal’s (WHC.AX) top line grew 164% and net profit more than 400% over a similar timeframe when the coal price was close to $400 a tonne. Dick earmarked the extra fossil-fuel revenue to pay for new hospitals and a slew of renewable energy and water projects.

Persons: Australia’s, Cameron Dick, Dick, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: MELBOURNE, Reuters, Revenue, Whitehaven, Queensland, Thomson Locations: Queensland, Hope, New South Wales, South Wales

☆ Toshiba gives shareholder management masterclass
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Its limited visibility on the value of the memory-chip specialist was one reason it cited for its earlier restraint. Follow @ugalani on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSToshiba said on June 8 that its board has decided to recommend shareholders accept a tender offer from a group led by Japan Industrial Partners. The tender offer is expected to be launched some time from late July. Among other factors, it cited limited visibility into the value of chipmaker Kioxia, of which Toshiba owns around 40%. In recommending the offer, Toshiba noted the book value of Kioxia’s shares had fallen since its March announcement.

Persons: Paul Singer’s Elliott, Daniel Loeb’s, Jerry Black, Antony Currie, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Toshiba, Japan Industrial Partners, Paul Singer’s Elliott Management, Farallon Capital, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Kioxia, Japan

☆ Private equity hurtles towards hard Asia reset
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, June 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Sequoia’s decision to carve out its China business formalises a push for a hard reset in Asia that private equity firms have until now largely been grappling with behind the scenes. These country-agnostic funds accounted for just over half the money raised in 2022 in the region, a 22-year high. Granted, these South and Southeast Asia markets are small at present compared to China; that’s why more firms are seeking bigger-ticket buyouts in Australia and Japan. That will eventually weigh on performance in the region, which for top-quartile Asia funds last year was a very respectable median 25% net internal rate of return, per Preqin. Private equity’s cooling relationship with China, though, is likely to hit hard for most.

Persons: Neil Shen, Shailendra Singh, Singh, Zhang Lei, There’s, Shen, Antony Currie, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Bain & Co, Bain Capital, KKR, XV Partners, Sequoia, Twitter, NEWS Venture, Sequoia Capital, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Asia, Republic, Sequoia, India, Southeast Asia, Greater China, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Hillhouse, Singapore, Australia, Japan, U.S

☆ Wall Street faces life in China’s second tier
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Recent earnings reports from U.S. investment banks defy the sober mood among China-focused financiers. Morgan Stanley’s (MS.N) Asia revenue in the first three months of the year was almost 40% above the final quarter of 2022. Companies going public in Hong Kong have raised $2 billion so far this year, per Dealogic. At some point Hong Kong IPOs and cross-border M&A are likely to perk up. Many of those trades flow through the Hong Kong bourse’s Stock Connect links to the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, outlast, It’s, Morgan Stanley’s, Sharon Yeshaya, Goldman Sachs’s, that’s, Stephanie Hui, Goldman Sachs, ”, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, That’s, Breakingviews, Hong Kong, Peter Thal Larsen, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: MELBOURNE, Reuters, JPMorgan, Communist Party, Companies, HK, KKR, Reuters Graphics, Tuesday, Bank of America, Wall, China Securities, Financial Times, Apple, Hong Kong bourse’s, Goldman, JPMorgan –, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: China, Shanghai, U.S, Asia, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Beijing, Washington, United States, People’s Republic, Germany, Hong, Shenzhen, Greater China, Pacific

☆ Toyota governance fight gets stuck in traffic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, May 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Governance campaigns against Japanese companies have a hard enough time gaining traction as it is. ValueAct Capital’s two-year campaign against Seven & i (3382.T) culminated last week with at best just a third of shareholders backing its four board candidates. Glass Lewis asserts just three of Toyota’s 10 board candidates are unaffiliated, fewer than the one-third the advisory sets as a floor. Toyota insists its board meets the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s independence standards. He should go in any event: having the former CEO of 14 years lead the board is bad governance.

☆ Aussie billionaires’ solar spat enters new phase
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, May 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The battle between two of Australia’s richest men for control of bankrupt renewables startup Sun Cable has ended in a whimper. Surprisingly absent from the final bout was Squadron Energy, one of Fortescue Metals (FMG.AX) founder Andrew Forrest’s investment companies. Both were early investors in Sun Cable; their spat over its strategy plunged the firm into administration in January. Cannon-Brookes wants to stick to the original plan of sending most of the energy it produces to Singapore via an undersea cable. Now the race is on to see which of the two men is first to flick the on switch.

☆ G7 says “de-risking”, China hears “containment”
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Irked by the G7 statements, Xi’s government has already called Japan’s ambassador on the carpet. To be sure, China, with a $90 billion monthly trade surplus hovering near record highs, cannot easily retaliate against its opponents. But it is not in Xi’s, or Chinese companies’, interests to sit back and let the G7 “de-risk”, and that makes the euphemism more threatening than it sounds. China firmly opposes the G7 joint statement and has complained to summit organiser Japan, the Chinese foreign ministry said on the same day. The ministry said that the G7, disregarding China's concerns, had attacked it and interfered in its internal affairs, including Taiwan.

Tesla is proposing to manufacture and sell vehicles in the country, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing a source. Import duties of as much as 100% made it difficult to gauge demand, so Tesla lobbied to reduce tariffs, rather than producing locally. Committing to a factory could work for Musk too, though justifying a Tesla-sized facility calls for fast and furious sales. When Tesla set up a Gigafactory in China in 2019, its sheer scale meant supply chains sprang up to serve it. Senior Tesla executives are in India this week to meet the government to discuss local sourcing of parts and other issues, Reuters reported on May 16.

☆ Newmont’s $19 bln gold deal lacks investor sparkle
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, May 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Newmont (NEM.N) boss Tom Palmer has finally dug out a deal with rival Newcrest Mining (NCM.AX). After months of discussions the two sides on Sunday agreed to an all-share transaction that values the Australian target’s enterprise at A$28.8 billion ($19.3 bln). The logic is that absorbing Newcrest will boost the Canadian buyer’s output of gold and copper. In return, the U.S. group is paying a punchy 27% premium to its prey’s stock price before their merger haggling went public. That implies an after-tax return on Newmont’s investment of around 7%, roughly in line with its cost of capital.

☆ Ambani’s finance listing will measure disruption
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Back in 2019 the boss of $200 billion Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) had pledged to spin out its giant retail and digital units. He has since lured big strategic and financial investors including Meta (META.O), Alphabet’s (GOOGL.O) Google and KKR (KKR.N)into those businesses. Jio Financial could be listed as soon as September. The entity will be renamed Jio Financial Services. Jio Financial will list as soon as September, a person familiar with the situation told Breakingviews.

☆ It’s time HSBC’s top owner calms down or sells up
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sticking around as a noisy unhappy owner with an 8% stake, though, risks hurting itself, HSBC and maybe even Hong Kong. A vote on Friday at HSBC’s annual meeting will test whether Ping An has garnered much support for its stance. A second resolution from the group wants the pre-Covid dividend reinstated and paid at not less than that level each year. Chances are both resolutions will pick up some votes, the latter especially from retail shareholders who globally between them own about one-third of the bank. If any large institutional investment houses join the Chinese group, it will be a blow to HSBC boss Noel Quinn.

HONG KONG, May 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chinese travellers are opening their suitcases again, but not their wallets. Domestic travel bookings during the holiday surged eightfold from a year earlier, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to online travel agency Trip.com (9961.HK). The return of Chinese holiday-goers should be a huge relief at home and abroad. Before the pandemic, domestic tourism contributed a whopping 11% of GDP and 10% of national employment, according to Fitch. The country's Big 3 carriers - Air China (601111.SS), China Southern (600029.SS), and China Eastern (600115.SS) - are grappling with high oil prices, a weak yuan and geopolitical tensions.

☆ DBS' safe profit haven nears its peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, May 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Top Singapore-based bank DBS (DBSM.SI) on Tuesday released first-quarter numbers that will make rivals envious. Expenses fell, meaning the bank used just 38% of its revenue to cover costs compared to 59% at JPMorgan (JPM.N). Net interest income already fell 1% last quarter from December. Meanwhile, as much as DBS still touts its status as a safe haven for those – especially rich Chinese people – who want to shield their money from trouble elsewhere, that advantage is also dimming. Absent other such calamities or Gupta being wrong about interest rates, this might be as good as it gets for DBS for now.

☆ Sumitomo triples down on Jefferies at right time
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MELBOURNE, April 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Jun Ohta may have preferred to catch a bigger Wall Street fish. But the CEO of Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) is expanding his relationship with relative minnow Jefferies (JEF.N) at an opportune moment. The $56 billion SMFG also intends to increase its ownership of the $7.6 billion company run by Richard Handler to 15% by purchasing ordinary shares that it will convert into preferred stock. Slumping deal flow after what Jefferies called an “off-the-charts” 2021 prompted its earnings to more than halve last year. SMFG will buy common stock on the open market and then convert it into non-voting preferred stock.

☆ BOJ’s new governor has relaxed debut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

What once looked solely like temporary “cost-push” hikes engendered by volatile energy and food prices are starting to look more entrenched. Instead Ueda kept YCC in place and tweaked the forward guidance to remove reference to pandemic-related risks. The BOJ predicts inflation will fall back below 2% soon and plans a policy review over the next year or so. That suggests the BOJ is more worried about weak growth – it expects 1.4% this fiscal year - than inflation. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Kirin investors find vitamin deal hard to swallow
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The $15 billion Japanese company is best known as a brewer, but sources more than half its top line from other businesses. Kirin, led by CEO Yoshinori Isozaki, also reckons the deal will be accretive to earnings per share in the first year. Yet investors immediately wiped some $450 million off the purchaser’s market value on Thursday, almost double the premium it agreed to pay Blackmores’ shareholders. Blackmores may yet show Kirin has adopted a better dealmaking regimen, but investors aren’t holding their breath. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Credit Suisse’s corpse drags on Nomura
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Like peers, it is feeling the pain of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis and Credit Suisse’s (CSGN.S) collapse. And Nomura (8604.T), as with Goldman Sachs (GS.N), is ill-positioned to benefit from rising lending rates as much as commercial banks are; both investment-banking firms posted a 5% decline in net revenue in the most recent quarter. Wholesale revenue, dragged down by a 20% decline in investment banking, contracted for the quarter but remained up 10% for the year. Retail and investment management contracted compared to the prior quarter; that could be more than just seasonal if the global economy stays rickety. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Breakingviews: Fox is not out of the woods yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Rupert Murdoch’s Fox will find that a damaged beast attracts more foes. The media company which operates cable network Fox News settled a defamation lawsuit on Tuesday for approximately half of the $1.6 billion sought in damages by the plaintiff, Dominion Voting Systems. In a statement, Fox acknowledged the court’s ruling “finding certain claims about Dominion to be false.”Fox has some $4 billion in cash, so it can easily scratch a check for the $788 million penalty. And while Fox is flush now, Chief Executive Lachlan Murdoch has noted the company needs more scale, given it’s vulnerable to cord cutters and a tepid advertising environment. The $17 billion Fox has survived this round, yet the hunt is still on.

☆ Fox is not out of the woods yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

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