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☆ An economics researcher is warning that the next few decades could bring a massive stock market collapse
  + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
The US stock market could face collapse by 2050, according to new research by a Finnish economist. Grosby's paper re-examined past studies of stock market crashes to determine if another cataclysm was headed for the US market. Using a model that detects faster-than-exponential growth to identify stock market bubbles, the researchers concluded that the US equity market was headed for a collapse in 2052. He also re-calibrated the model, as other analyses show it could be overestimating the time it takes for a stock market crash to occur. His findings echo warnings from prominent Wall Street commentators, who say disaster looms over the stock market.
☆ Meta stock could jump 30% as Mark Zuckerberg sobers up on his metaverse ambitions and focuses on other initiatives, Gene Munster says
  + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Meta stock could see a 30% upside as Mark Zuckerberg shows he's listening to investors, Gene Munster says. Despite the Meta CEO's ambitions in the metaverse, Zuckerberg promised investors a "year of efficiency." But Zuckerberg shifted his tone in Meta's latest earnings call, Munster noted. "It's as if Zuckerberg is just saying what investors want to hear," Munster said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. Munster estimated that the firm's earnings would rise 17%, adding Meta and other FAANG stocks could see upside of around 30% in 2023.
☆ Tesla is the one stock ARK Invest's Cathie Wood says she would hold for 10 years
  + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
If Cathie Wood had to hold one stock for the next decade, it would be Tesla, she said in an interview. Wood has been snapping up Tesla stock since shares of the EV maker closed out a dismal year in 2022. She estimates the stock will soar to $1,500 a share over the next five years, marking a 675% increase. In a recent Twitter Spaces interview with Cardone Capital, the famed money manager professed her bullishness for Tesla stock, which is the largest holding in her flagship ARK Innovation ETF. Wood anticipates Tesla stock reaching $1,500 a share over the next five years, implying a 675% increase from current levels.
☆ Nasdaq climbs 2% as US stocks rise following smaller rate hike from the Fed
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
US stocks rose in volatile trading on Wednesday after the Fed hiked interest rates 25 basis points. That brings the fed funds rate target to 4.5%-4.75%, the highest since 2007. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted more hikes are coming and warned rates would need to stay high for "some time." The latest increase brings the fed funds rate target to 4.5%-4.75%, the highest since October 2007. "The FOMC announcement indicates that additional rate hikes may be appropriate, while markets are only pricing one more increase," Temple said in a statement.
☆ ChatGPT writing BuzzFeed articles may reduce some costs for the media firm but it won't be as profitable as investors think, Bank of America says
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Getting ChatGPT to write BuzzFeed articles won't be as profitable as investors think, Bank of America said in a note. BofA maintained its underperform rating on the stock with a price target of $2, around 4% below its current price. Analysts pointed to the media company's recent announcement it would employ OpenAI's artificial intelligence technology to produce content for its website. That announcement, along with a recent $10 billion deal with Meta to bring more creators to Facebook and Instagram, caused BuzzFeed stock to soar 200% last week. But while AI technology could help BuzzFeed trim down some of its costs, it isn't the saving grace that investors may think, analysts said of the recent move.
☆ The 'problematic' stock rally will fade as the Fed wrangles sticky inflation and recession hits in the 2nd half of the year, Credit Suisse strategist says
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The rally in stocks that's kicked off 2023 is "problematic," according to Credit Suisse strategist Patrick Palfrey. Palfrey warned that gains will be fleeting as the Fed continues to battle sticky inflation. That could spark a recession and a sell-off in the market in the second half of the year, he predicted. Though prices cooled to 6.5% in December, inflation is likely to remain sticky in the second half of the year, Palfrey said. I think those are going to be a headwind for the market as we start to approach the latter half of the year," Palfrey warned.
☆ The meme token named after Elon Musk's dog has soared 200% this year
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
A crypto token named after Elon Musk's dog has soared 200% this year. Floki is another Shiba Inu-themed token, and was created after Musk posted a picture of his Shiba Inu puppy in 2022. The Tesla CEO has been associated with the dog breed since touting dogecoin and Shiba Inu coin on his Twitter. By then, Musk had cemented his association with the Japanese dog breed, after touting Dogecoin and Shiba Inu to his Twitter followers. Musk has periodically posted pictures of his dog Floki on Twitter, though he's given no clear indication that he's involved with the Floki crypto project.
☆ The sizzling rally in stocks is nearing its end as investors are about to realize a recession has merely been postponed, JPMorgan says
  + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The sizzling rally in stocks will come to an end, as the risks of recession have only been postponed, JPMorgan said. Though investors are less worried about a downturn, some areas of GDP data are still weak, and interest rates remain high. "A weak trajectory for US domestic demand keeps recession risk elevated, even as the tightness in labor markets postpones this recession risk." "A weak trajectory for US domestic demand keeps recession risk elevated, even as the tightness in labor markets postpones this recession risk," the note said. That weakness is also exacerbated by high interest rates, strategists said, with the fed funds rate approaching 5%.
☆ Lucid spikes 98% on speculation Saudi investment fund may buy out remaining stake in the EV maker
  + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Lucid stock skyrocketed on Friday on speculation that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund would buy out the remaining stake. Saudi Arabia's PIF currently owns 65% of Lucid, and has not confirmed if it will buy the remaining shares. Shares were halted 12 times on the New York Stock Exchange Friday afternoon due to increased volatility. The fund also bought 41 million shares of Tesla around that time, but has since sold off the stake in the rival EV maker. The fund has not publicly confirmed if it will buy the remaining shares of Lucid.
☆ SBF's mom, Caroline Ellison, and former FTX executives are not cooperating with the investigation into the disgraced crypto exchange, filing says
  + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
SBF, his mom, his brother, and key executives in his crypto empire aren't cooperating in the FTX bankruptcy case, according to a recent court filing. FTX lawyers said several key insiders have not responded or declined to give requested information related to the collapsed exchange. But discussions with Bankman-Fried's father and another FTX executive have been making progress, the filing said. In particular, former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison and FTX co-founder Gary Wang have declined to give FTX's lawyers requested information. However, discussions with Bankman-Fried's father Joseph Bankman and former FTX COO Zhe Wang have been making progress, the filing said.
☆ US stocks jump as investors cheer upbeat GDP data and strong Tesla earnings
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
US stocks jumped Thursday as investors cheered strong GDP data and Tesla earnings. GDP grew 2.9% over the fourth quarter, above estimates of 2.8%. GDP grew 2.9% annualized over the fourth quarter, according to the Commerce Department, above the 2.8% estimated by economists. Tesla, meanwhile, reported a record revenue of $24.32 billion over the last quarter, above estimates of $24.16 billion. "Headline GDP was very strong beating consensus suggesting robust economic activity and if recession were to materialize a softer recession.
☆ Russia is selling record amounts of crude oil to India to plug the gap in its energy exports after the EU ban
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Russia is selling record amounts of crude oil to India to plug its shortfalls from the EU oil ban, according to Vortexa. Indian imports hit a record 1.2 million barrels a day in December, and 1.3 million barrels a day in the first two weeks of January. The energy analytics firm said Russia handed off 1.2 million barrels a day of its crude oil to India in December, notching a new record high. Russian crude now accounts for 60% of India's oil imports, compared to 48% in December. Oil markets could be further disrupted when the EU bans Russian oil products, including diesel and fuel oil, on February 5.
☆ Nobel economist Paul Krugman says we're not in a debt crisis, but the US could still be facing a lot of economic problems in a few years
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
The US isn't in a debt crisis, but it'll soon be facing the problem of its $31 trillion debt, Paul Krugman said. But we're not in a crisis yet, Krugman said in an op-ed for the New York Times on Tuesday. "We are not in any kind of debt crisis. Decreasing the deficit will hinder economic activity, but that can be remedied by lowering interest rates. And once we hit near-zero interest rates, paying off the debt could lead to trouble, since rates can't be lowered any further.
☆ Russia's $45 billion stash of Chinese yuan is helping Moscow weather massive plunge in energy revenues
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Russia has a $45 billion stash of Chinese yuan that could help it weather sanctions, per Bloomberg. Moscow has sought to deepen ties with Beijing amid a barrage of western sanctions. Selling its yuan reserves will help Russia cover its losses for the next three years, according to an analysis from Bloomberg Economics. Its flagship Urals crude blend is now trading around $50 a barrel – a third of what it was last year, Bloomberg reported. The measures have severe crimped Russia's oil revenue, which could spell trouble for the nation in the long-term, economists warn.
☆ US stocks climb but end the week mixed as investors worry about a coming recession
  + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
US stocks rose on Friday, but had a mixed performance for the week as investors worry about an upcoming recession. The Nasdaq closed the week with a gain, though the Dow and the S&P 500 finished lower. Tech stocks rallied on the latest batch of corporate earnings and layoffs sweeping the sector. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. The Dow and S&P 500 notched weekly losses of 3% and 0.9%, respectively, while the Nasdaq gained 0.5% as tech stocks rallied on fresh corporate earnings and layoffs sweeping the sector.
☆ Home prices and mortgages will stay high this year, but housing activity is set to cool further amid mild recession, Fannie Mae says
  + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
High mortgage rates and home prices will persist, but activity will slump amid a mild recession, Fannie Mae said. Mortgage rates have been influenced by the Fed's rate hikes, and rates could remain high this year. A 2008-style crash is unlikely, the mortgage giant said, predicting a steady decline in home prices over the next few years. Mortgage rates have eased slightly in recent weeks as the Fed dials back the size of its rate hikes, which have lowered interest rate volatility. In either case, we expect 2023 to be a slow year for the housing market," Fannie Mae's chief economist Doug Duncan said in a note on Friday.
☆ Tesla stock could rally 35% as recent price cuts have already been a huge success in China, Wedbush's Dan Ives says
  + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Tesla could rally 35% this year as its recent price cuts have already been a success in China, Wedbush's Dan Ives said. In a Wedbush survey, 70% of consumers in China said they were positively influenced by recent price cuts to purchase a Tesla. Plus, nearly 70% of those surveyed said they've been positively influenced to purchase a Tesla due to the recent price cuts. "Tesla's recent price cuts [are a] huge success story so far," Ives said in a note on Thursday. Last week, Ives said in a separate note that Tesla's price cuts were a sign the company is getting more aggressive as competition heats up in electric vehicles.
☆ A 1970s-style financial crisis will slam the economy if the Fed abandons its inflation target, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says
  + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
A 1970s-style financial crisis will hit the US economy if the Fed lets up in its inflation fight, according to Larry Summers. The former Treasury Secretary criticized recent calls to raise the inflation target from 2%. At a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum, Summers rebuked suggestions from some economists that the Fed should lift its inflation target from its long-standing 2% target to 3%-4%. Economist Mohamed El Erian is among those that have suggested the Fed may have to revise its inflation target to 3%-4%, though the Fed has reiterated its commitment to its original 2% goal. "It would be a grave error for central banks to revise their inflation target upwards at this point.
☆ As crypto hackers and thieves make off with billions, there's another kind of fraud lurking in the industry.
  + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
I'm sorry to say when you dig deeper into the practices of opaque crypto exchanges, there's little to restore that faith. Timothy Cradle, director of regulatory affairs at Blockchain Intelligence, told Insider that wash trading is market manipulation. NBER researchers estimated that wash trading comprises nearly half of all transactions on Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange by volume. Similarly, KuCoin, another top-five crypto exchange, was estimated to have 52.9% of its transactions consist of wash trading (which the company denied). Are you surprised that the researchers found wash trading to be so rampant a practice?
☆ Tesla's price cuts will cause earnings to plunge 25%, but the EV maker is repairing its brand for long-term gain, Loup's Gene Munster says
  + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Tesla's price cuts will cause earnings to dive 25% this year, according to Loup's Gene Munster. "It's a win for consumers and Tesla's brand. Musk's cash-out and erratic behavior on the social media site are partly responsible for damaging Tesla's brand, Munster said. But he thinks the Tesla's image is now being repaired with price cuts, since the move will be favorable with Tesla's customers. Tesla is going to gain market share near term which has long term market share benefits as the EV market ramps," Munster tweeted.
☆ 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says the Fed will wimp out on its inflation fight and gold is the best protection as volatility batters the economy
  + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The Fed will wimp out on its inflation fight, according to "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini. Roubini said gold is the best bet for investors as inflation, high debt, and extreme volatility are set to batter the economy. "There is so much debt in the system that an attempt to reduce inflation not only causes an economic crash, it causes also a financial crisis," Roubini said. However, that still won't save the economy from a recession: Failing to bring inflation back to target levels could cause a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, sparking a stagflationary debt crisis, Roubini warned. That could slam the economy with high unemployment, high inflation, and a severe downturn, causing stocks to tank 30%.
☆ US stocks rise to finish best week since November as major banks warn of tough times ahead
  + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
US stocks rose on Friday and finished off their best week since November. All three indexes gained despite warnings from major banks of tough times ahead. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America have forecast a mild recession to hit the economy in 2023. In particular, S&P 500 rose to finish its best week since November, when investors bet inflation would decline into the new year. Executives from JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America said they expect a mild recession to hit the economy this year.
☆ China's trade with Russia hit a record $190 billion in 2022 as Moscow deepens partnership with Beijing amid withering western sanctions
  + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
China's trade with Russia hit a record $190 billion in 2022, a sign Moscow is deepening its partnership with Beijing. Trade with Russia made up 3% of China's total trade volume last year, per a Reuters report. Trade with Russia also made up 3% of China's total trade volume last year, per a Reuters report. A Reuters analysis of industry data found that Russian rail exports of liquefied petroleum gas to China more than doubled in 2022, and Russian oil exports rose 10% in the first 11 months of 2022. That's largely the result of Russia leaning more on China as its trade volume gets battered by Western sanctions.
☆ Crypto has little intrinsic value or fundamentals to fall back on, and traders are merely riding a 'hot ball' of momentum, investment firm says
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Crypto has little intrinsic value, and traders are merely capitalizing on momentum to take profits,A paper from Starkiller Capital said there is little evidence that fundamentals influence the price of crypto assets. In the absence of fundamentals, traders must rely on a set of narratives to generate momentum. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. That dynamic is likely encouraged by online communities for crypto traders, the large amount of fraud and market manipulation in the industry, and the fact that crypto traders are "very online" and tend to react strongly to the development of particular market narratives. "We believe the momentum effect becomes self-fulfilling as market participants attempt to front run the hot ball of money," the paper said.
☆ US stocks trade mixed as investors digest latest Fed comments on rate outlook
  + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
US stocks traded mixed as investors digested the latest Fed comments on the outlook for interest rates. Two regional Fed presidents see rates rising over 5% in order for the central bank to rein in inflation. Investors also have their eye on Thursday's December CPI report, a key inflation measure that will influence the Fed's next policy move. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said they expected the central bank to raise rates past 5% and hold them there to rein in inflation. Investors also have their eye on Thursday's December Consumer Price Index report, a key inflation measure that will influence central bankers in their next policy move.
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