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Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the stock market's bull run could slow if the dollar strengthens again. AdvertisementMorgan Stanley's top stock strategist is eyeing one risk in particular that could threaten the stock market's big rally: a stronger US dollar. According to the firm's chief US equity strategist, Mike Wilson, a dollar re-strengthening could hinder stock gains. The greenback weakened as markets prepared for steep rate cuts, but that move has reversed in recent weeks as strong economic data makes more aggressive policy easing less likely. Wilson's call comes two years into the market's bull rally, with major indexes continuing to hit fresh all-time highs.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, , that's, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Radio, Federal Locations: China, Japan
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday said some investors are missing market opportunities because they are too focused on what the Federal Reserve will do next when it comes to interest rates. "I'm not saying the stock market will never go down when the Fed's easing," he said. But Blackstone reported an impressive quarter, and the stock reached a new all-time high, up more than 6% by the close. He also referenced the turbulence this week in the semiconductor space — triggered by a bad quarter from Dutch chipmaker ASML on Tuesday — saying investors' Fed worries may have scared them out of expensive stocks. "Everyone who's obsessed with the Fed's next foray is basically investing with blinders on, and as a result, they're missing out on some of the greatest moves I've ever seen in my life," Cramer said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, I'm, Jay Powell, Blackstone, ASML, Jensen, they're, I've, Cramer Organizations: Federal Reserve, Blackstone, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor
With the Federal Reserve now cutting interest rates, investors are looking for stocks that can be super-charged by lower borrowing costs. Small and medium-sized companies tend to be the most closely affected by the direction of the economy and rates. Outflows were seen solely in large caps; small and mid-caps saw inflows." If money does keep flowing into small caps, will it come at the expense of large caps? .SPX mountain 2022-10-01 S & P 500 since Oct. 1, 2022 That said, if the move into the smaller caps stocks continues, we may start to see more competition for capital.
Persons: Russell, that's, it's, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang, Morgan Stanley's, We're, Canaccord Genuity, pare, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Michael Nagle Organizations: Federal Reserve, BMO Capital Markets, Bank of America, Nvidia, CNBC, Blackwell, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Devices, Broadcom, Apple Intelligence, Apple, Microsoft, Presidential, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Breather from rally U.S. markets fell Monday, weighed down by a drop in semiconductor stocks and a 8.1% slide in UnitedHealth . Tech stocks fell 6.36%, while telecoms stocks rose 1.97%. Indeed, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who's a member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, noted that the central bank is "a long way from where [rates are] likely to settle."
Persons: ASML, there's, They're, Michael Hartnett, Mary Daly, who's, Dow, Piper, Craig Johnson, , Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, UBS, Tech, ASML's, Bloomberg, Nvidia, AMD, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Survey, U.S . Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Federal Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuesday's, Netherlands, ., Beijing
Still, that’s far lower than the 528 drop boxes that the commission was aware of in 2020. PoolNick Ramos, the executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a voting rights group that has pushed for more drop boxes, said he was discouraged by the number of municipalities that had decided not to use drop boxes this election. “Drop boxes are safe, they are reliable and secure.”Changing legal statusFor years, ballot drop boxes were legal in Wisconsin with little controversy or attention, and in 2020, they became a key tactic for municipalities to encourage safe voting during the coronavirus pandemic. A conservative group filed a lawsuit to ban drop boxes in Wisconsin, and the state Supreme Court’s conservative majority sided with them in 2022, banning drop boxes except ones inside clerks’ offices. In Milwaukee, most drop boxes are in front of libraries, and in Madison, the state capital and a Democratic stronghold, officials decided to locate almost all of their drop boxes in front of fire stations.
Persons: Donald Trump, Dale Schmidt, Trump, Nick Ramos, “ We’re, ” Ramos, “ It’s, Joe Biden, Doug Diny, Diny, , , I’ve, Jeff Mandell, Nancy Stenzel, Robin Vos, Scott Fitzgerald, Vos –, Janet Protasiewicz, Protasiewicz, Dylan Brogan, Schmidt, ” Schmidt, Eric Hovde, “ We’ve, ” Hovde, Catherine Engelbrecht, ” Engelbrecht, Mandell Organizations: CNN, Wisconsin county, , Trump, Commission, Madison, Wisconsin Democracy, Wausau, Republican, City Hall, Department of Justice, Council, State Assembly, GOP, Democratic, USA, Conservative, US, Washington Post, WIRED Locations: Wisconsin, Dodge County, Milwaukee, Dodge County , Wisconsin, Juneau , Wisconsin, Wausau, , Hall, Madison, Kenosha
Fully 90% expect a "soft landing," or "no landing" at all (i.e. That's not the case here: the Fed is cutting rates going into, at worst, a soft landing, which is very unusual. The S & P 500 was up 2.0% in September and is higher by 0.9% so far in October. Historically, the S & P tends to rise beginning in the last week of October and through November and December. Goldman Sachs noted that, since 1928, the median S & P 500 return from October 15 to December 31 has been 5.17%.
Persons: That's, Alicia Levine, BNY, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, buybacks, Stocks, there's, AAII, BofA Organizations: America, Trump, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Fed, buybacks, American Association of Locations: U.S, frothy
Mortgage rates dropped a lot over the last few months in response to what appeared to be cooling in the labor market. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. You can calculate this by dividing your closing costs by the amount you're saving on your monthly mortgage payment. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile.
Persons: they've, Freddie Mac Organizations: Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Nuveen CIO Saira Malik and SMBC Nikko Securities' Joe LavorgnaSaira Malik, Nuveen CIO and head of equities and fixed income, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities chief economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, whether a soft landing scenario can be achieved, state of the 2024 election, and more.
Persons: Saira Malik, Joe Lavorgna Saira Malik, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities Locations: Nikko
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should consider diversifying beyond tech, says Defiance ETFs CEO Sylvia JablonskiSylvia Jablonski, Defiance ETFs CEO and CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, where investors can find opportunities right now, and more.
Persons: Sylvia Jablonski Sylvia Jablonski Organizations: Investors
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. Fed interest rate easing cycle would be positive for stocks and gold: CIOBob Elliott of Unlimited discusses his asset allocation amidst Fed rate cuts that would "add fuel to the fire" and increase the risk of the U.S. transitioning to credit and borrowing-driven growth.
Persons: Bob Elliott Organizations: U.S, Unlimited Locations: U.S
Morgan Stanley shares soared to all-time highs Wednesday after third-quarter beats on the bank's top and bottom lines, with strength seen across the board. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley YTD Club stock Morgan Stanley was up 7.5%. Morgan Stanley outpaced expectations in just about every aspect of each operating division and put up very strong quarterly results in terms of firmwide key performance indicators. Given its 15.1% CET1 ratio, Morgan Stanley has plenty of excess capital at its disposal to both continue investing in growth and return excess capital to shareholders. Morgan Stanley Why we own it : We own Morgan Stanley for the rebound taking place in IPO and M & A activity along with growth in wealth management, which provides more durable fee-based revenues.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley's, Sharon Yeshaya, Morgan Stanley repurchased, Goldman Sachs, Ted Pick, Morgan, Yeshaya, That's, Eaton Vance, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Bing Guan Organizations: Revenue, LSEG, Morgan Stanley YTD, Investment, Bloomberg, Institutional Securities, Bank of Japan, CNBC, Getty Locations: Wells Fargo
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, Goldman Sachs' earnings result might be a sign of the long-awaited return of M&A . The big storyM&A for allWin McNamee/Getty ImagesDon't look now, but M&A might finally be coming back. Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's perennial M&A king, smashed analysts' third-quarter expectations , notching $3 billion in profits. One analyst took things a step further, floating the idea of an "M&A supercycle" once the money that's been sitting on the sidelines finally gets put to work.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Win McNamee, Insider's Reed Alexander, David Solomon, that's, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Mariana Bazo, Tyler Le, TSMC, Biden, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, TK, Alex Brandon Elon Musk, Kamala Harris, Alain Tascan, Jeet Shroff, Shroff, Morgan Stanley, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, LaGuardia Airport, Getty, BI, Monetary Fund, Chartered, Apple, Bloomberg, Google, Trump, PAC, America PAC, AP, Trump PAC, Epic, Discover Financial Services Locations: Midtown Manhattan, China, lockstep, New York, London
Consumer spending was expected to hold strong in September, possibly even more than forecast and enough to throw another wrinkle into the Federal Reserve's thought process. "If retail sales accelerate considerably, in our view, the narrative may shift further toward 'no landing' or even re-acceleration." "Monthly retail sales data can be volatile. For now, Bhave thinks a strong sales report will "probably not … at least, not yet" hit Fed policy. At the same time the retail report drops, the Labor Department will issue its weekly reading on initial unemployment claims.
Persons: Dow Jones, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Hurricanes Helene, Milton Organizations: Bank of America, Fed, Labor Department, Hurricanes, Boeing Locations: Michigan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe soft landing narrative may not play out exactly how investors want, says Nuveen's Saira MalikSaira Malik, Nuveen CIO and head of equities and fixed income, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities chief economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, whether a soft landing scenario can be achieved, state of the 2024 election, and more.
Persons: Nuveen's Saira Malik Saira Malik, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities
U.S. interest rate cuts are unlikely to move at an aggressive pace, say market watchers. The Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo 50 basis-point rate cut in September — but subsequent ones will be milder, they said. They highlighted the better-than-expected September jobs report, renewed worries around inflation, rising yields and an economy that's still relatively strong. How to position In that scenario — and with inflation expected to continue being sticky, it's important that investors still have exposure to commodities, said Landsberg. Christopher of Wells Fargo said if interest rates moderate and earnings are stronger than expected, market performance will broaden out further.
Persons: , Paul Christopher, CNBC's, Adam Coons, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Landsberg, Christopher, Wells Fargo, Luis Alvarado, Alvarado Organizations: Fed, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Winthrop Capital Management, Wealth Management Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S
This is the picture painted of Jabalya, northern Gaza, by the emergency services chief in the area. “You can see the signs of hunger on the people in northern Gaza,” Fares Afana, the head of emergency services in northern Gaza, told CNN by phone on Monday. The 400,000 who remain in northern Gaza are stalked by hunger and face thunderous bombardment. The UN has accused the Israeli military of forcing residents of northern Gaza to choose between starvation or relocation. On Tuesday, at least 17 people were killed in northern Gaza, according to Gaza’s Civil Defense.
Persons: ” Afana, , Afana, , ” Philippe Lazzarini, , Israel “ Organizations: CNN, Israel Defense Forces, Humanitarian Affairs, UN, , Palestine, UNRWA, Monday, Sa’eed, ” CNN, Gaza’s, Media, Civil Defense Locations: Gaza, Israel, Yemen, Jabalya
However, the group has been left in the dust by large caps, which continue to thrive. Here are 17 stocks to buy as SMID caps make a major comeback. So-called SMID caps seemed poised to take the baton from large caps over the summer. Why a shift toward smaller stocks is comingCentral to BMO's bullish thesis for smaller stocks are the group's eye-grabbing relative performance and valuations. 17 stocks to buy before a market reversalAfter a series of false starts, Belski believes smaller stocks will finally lead the market higher.
Persons: , BMO —, Brian Belski, Belski, BMO's, they've Organizations: Service, BMO Capital Markets, BMO, BMO Capital Locations: , Central, US
The owner of Lay’s, Doritos, Tostitos and Ruffles chips will put more chips in some bags to claw back customers tired of higher prices with skimpier bags. A PepsiCo spokesperson told CNN that Tostitos and Ruffles “bonus” bags will contain 20% more chips for the same price as standard bags in select locations. PepsiCo is also adding two additional small chip bags to its variety-pack option with 18 bags, the spokesperson said. It’s a reversal of years of shrinking bags of Tostitos, Ruffles and other chip brands. Snack prices have gone up more rapidly than other store items.
Persons: , Ramon Laguarta, Edgar Dworsky, Dworsky, ” Dworsky, PepsiCo’s, Chip, Robert Moskow, Cowen, Moskow, Joe Biden, General Mills, shrinkflation, Domino’s, Sandeep Reddy Organizations: New, New York CNN, PepsiCo, CNN, Walmart, Costco, Bank of America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumers, General, Locations: New York, United States, outpacing, Mondelez
The S&P 500 could lose a quarter of its value next year, according to Stifel. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 looks like it's in the midst of another "mania," and investors could see a steep drop in the benchmark index sometime next year, according to Stifel. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 looks like the fifth stock mania, according to a Stifel analysis spanning the last 139 years. Stocks could be challenged next year due to the uncertain outlook for Fed rate cuts, the strategists suggested. Investors could be impacted for the long-term, they added, pointing to previous manias, which historically led to weak stock returns over the following decade.
Persons: it's, , manias Organizations: Service, Bloomberg
A contrarian sell signal recently flashed in the stock market, according to Bank of America. AdvertisementA sell signal in the stock market just flashed for the first time since February 2021, according to a note from Bank of America. The sell signal has typically preceded weak returns in the short term. The sell signal from Bank of America flashes at a time when stocks are trading near record highs. As to potential risks in the market, investors are most worried about geopolitical conflicts, which rose to 33% from 19% last month.
Persons: BofA, , Michael Hartnett, Jun, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Service Locations: China
Over the past month, the S & P 500 has climbed 3.2% to break above 5,800 for the first time. "Despite all the soft-landing and Fed rate cut optimism, the S & P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot," he wrote in a note to clients. "S & P 500 over-valuation has been supported by (and fully reflects) the Fed likely cutting the real funds rate," he added. This summer, he said he expected the S & P 500 to fall to 5,000 by the fourth quarter. While not included in CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey , that forecast would mark Stifel as the second lowest among those surveyed.
Persons: Barry Bannister, Stifel, manias, Bannister Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro's, Survey, Citi, Cisco Systems
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineDespite markets falling Tuesday, there's still plenty to like about their current state. Weighed down by ASML's 16% dive and a report by Bloomberg on potential AI-chip export controls, semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and AMD fell 4.7% and 5.2% respectively. Still, investors are the most bullish in four years, according to the October BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.
Persons: DJI, Spencer Platt, there's, They're, Michael Hartnett, Mary Daly, who's, Dow, Piper, Craig Johnson, , Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: AMD, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, ASML's, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Survey, U.S . Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Federal Locations: U.S, Beijing
The Aussie dropped as much as 0.51% to $0.6669, the lowest since Sept. 12, before changing hands down 0.38% at $0.6678 as of 0133 GMT. The New Zealand dollar sank as much as 0.69% to $0.6041, a level last seen on Aug. 19. China will hold a press conference on Thursday to discuss promoting the "steady and healthy" development of the property sector. The dollar was little changed at 149.135 yen , not far from Monday's high of 149.98 yen, the strongest since Aug. 1. The euro edged 0.05% lower to $1.08875, and earlier touched $1.0882, matching the low from Tuesday, which was the weakest level since Aug. 8.
Persons: There's, Ray Attrill, there's, Attrill Organizations: New Zealand, National Australia Bank, Statistics, U.S, Traders, Fed, European Central Bank Locations: New Zealand, Beijing, China, Statistics New Zealand
The S & P 500 continues to make new highs, and volatility continues to decline. First, the S & P 500 has logged just two absolute 1% moves since Sept. 19, which is nearly a month's worth of trading. In fact, 114 S & P 500 stocks made new 52-week highs on Tuesday, which was the first time we've had over 100 since 7/16/24. With the day's opening and close both being higher and lower than the prior session's, this created a bearish engulfing pattern. The bottom line is that the S & P 500 and dozens of its holdings have built up substantial cushions by strongly coming back from the August lows.
Persons: we've Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday, as U.S. Treasury yields eased, while market participants waited for more U.S. economic data to determine the number of interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver in the near term. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,667.97 per ounce by 0217 GMT, $17 shy of a record high hit last month. The 10-year Treasury yields slipped for a third straight session, making zero-yield bullion more appealing. "The game changer in gold prices is the U.S. monetary policy easing as it sets the stage for investment demand," said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari. Delegates to the London Bullion Market Association's annual gathering predicted gold prices would rise to $2,941 over the next 12 months and silver prices would jump to $45 per ounce.
Persons: Soni Kumari, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Benjamin Netanyahu, Emmanuel Macron Organizations: SA, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ANZ, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta Fed, London Locations: Budapest, Hungary, U.S, rearming
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