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The central bank has been aiming to keep the long-run inflation rate at this level to maintain stable prices and a healthy economy. "There is now a higher base inflation rate than there was before COVID for a number of reasons." Related storiesBut there are other factors contributing to an increased long-term inflation rate, many of which Blitz tracked even before the pandemic. AdvertisementChanging demographics in the workplace are also driving increasing debt and higher long-term inflation, according to Blitz. In Blitz's perspective, all of these factors add up to an inflation rate exceeding 2% going forward.
Persons: isn't, Steven Blitz, , Mark Higgins, Blitz, Bonds Organizations: Service, Fed, stoke, Blitz, Technology, iShares Semiconductor, Index
Investors have been increasingly on edge about the prospect of former President Donald Trump winning the election, a possibility for which Wall Street has been preparing to a greater extent. While polls remain effectively dead-even, Trump’s prospects have grown since the start of this month in political betting markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the decline, ending the day down by 1.6%; while the S&P 500 and Dow both fell about 1%. Recent strong economic data has led traders to question whether the central bank might maintain higher rates for longer than anticipated. The current market environment suggests continued volatility ahead, said Torres, warning of the potential for further yield curve steepening and increased market turbulence ahead.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, ” Steven Ricchiuto, Kamala Harris, Dow, , José Torres, McDonald’s, Kelly Ortberg, Torres Organizations: New, New York CNN, Mizuho Securities, Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow, Interactive Brokers, Nvidia, Apple, Boeing, Federal Locations: New York, United States
Fed outlook pushes dollar to 2-1/2 month peak; yen under pressure
  + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar hovered at a 2-1/2-month peak on Wednesday as investors adjusted bets toward a gradual reduction of interest rates while keeping an eye on a close presidential election race. The yen remained under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields marched higher, pushing it to a three-month low. That less dovish outlook for the Fed has helped buoy Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last up 0.11% at 104.18 after ticking up to 104.19, its highest since Aug. 2. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields kept the heat on the yen which sank to a three-month low of 151.72 against the greenback.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, there's, Index's Simpson, Komeito, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Republican, Reuters, Democratic U.S, Markets, Trump, greenback, Liberal Democratic Party, of, European Central Bank Locations: Harris, U.S, Japan
Existing-home sales dropped by 1% last month, reaching their lowest level since October 2010. Homebuyers stayed on the sidelines in anticipation of lower mortgage rates. AdvertisementUS existing-home sales dropped to a nearly 14-year low in September as prospective homebuyers held back in anticipation of lower mortgage rates. AdvertisementAccording to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed by 70 basis points since then, to 6.85% from 6.15%. Related storiesIf this trend continues, those prospective homebuyers holding out for lower mortgage rates will be waiting a while.
Persons: Homebuyers, , Redfin Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Mortgage News
KAZAN, Russia — Almost 700 miles east of Russia's war in Ukraine, the city of Kazan is a safe enough distance for President Vladimir Putin to try and reposition himself as an international ambassador. The countries gathering for the BRICS summit, where Gavrilov is helping to chaperone delegates, share a similar mix of apparently contradictory views. Russia and Iranian protocol teams huddled together in a Kazan hotel Sunday planning the arrival of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. Russian President Vladimir Putin and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a wall at newly opened education center in Moscow on Monday. While Ukraine is a “long, long way away, the modern ballistic missile can very easily come here,” Gavrilov said.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Putin, Islam Gavrilov, Sergei Gavrilov, , Gavrilov, , didn’t, , it’s, Masoud Pezeshkian, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Mikhail Metzel, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, they’ve, ” David Lubin, you’re, ” Gavrilov, Keir Simmons, Natasha Lebedeva, Freddie Clayton Organizations: NBC, NASA, Harvard University, The, Putin, United Arab, European Union, Kremlin, Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s Crown, Chatham House, NBC News, Inside Locations: KAZAN, Russia, Ukraine, Kazan, Kremlin, United States, Moscow, America, U.S, — Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, UAE, London, Russian, Yelabuga, Nizhnekamsk,
Norway's sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of 835 billion Norwegian kroner ($76.3 billion), citing a stock market boost from falling interest rates. The so-called Government Pension Fund Global, one of the world's largest investors, said it had a value of 18.870 trillion kroner at the end of September. Trond Grande, deputy CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, said recent changes in monetary policy had "a pretty significant impact" on the fund's third-quarter results. "What I think you have seen from our numbers is that with a rising tide, all boats rise, right? And so, you saw a very broad increase in the stock market based on lower interest rates, essentially."
Persons: Trond Grande, Grande, CNBC's Silvia Amaro Organizations: Fund, Norway's Finance Ministry, FTSE, Bloomberg Barclays, Norges Bank Investment Management
In the weeks following their move, Chris found out that his father was planning to sell the family business, the Wheels Motel in Greybull, Wyoming. Still, knowing that his dad couldn't run the motel forever, Chris had previously run the possibility of buying it by Roxanna. The Wheels Motel is located in Greybull, Wyoming, about 100 miles from the east gate of Yellowstone National Park. Chris and Roxanna Harwood purchased the Wheels Motel from Chris' father in 2017. "This will be one of maybe two or three years that we've shown profitability with the motel," Chris says.
Persons: Chris, Roxanna, They'd, he'd, couldn't, Levi Stallings, she'd, Roxanna —, , they've, Ronan, Roxanna Harwood, Harris, it's, they're Organizations: Roxanna, CNBC, Navy, University of Wyoming, Colorado State, Microsoft, Gas, BMW Locations: Loveland , Colorado, Greybull , Wyoming, Yellowstone, Bighorn, it's, Billings , Montana, Greybull, Wyoming, Laramie, Hulu, Billings
The first line of the note reads: "We estimate the S & P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal total return of 3% during the next 10 years." For starters, nobody knows what the coming decade has in store for the S & P 500. Valuation: Yes, the S & P 500 is currently trading at a historically high multiple. Going out on a limb and making market calls or calls about individual stocks is not for the faint of heart. The S & P 500 has more than doubled since then, advancing about 135%, which amounts to that roughly 13% annual return that Kostin mentioned in his note.
Persons: David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman, it's, Jim Cramer, Stanley Black, Decker, That's, Jim, It's, Goldman Sachs, we're, Jim Cramer's, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Goldman, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S, Equity, Treasury, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, U.S, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Goldman Sachs, U.S, Wells
Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.
Persons: Bonds, , Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta
Dollar steady at August high on U.S. rates view, election
  + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will take a measured approach to interest rate cuts, while a close battle in the upcoming U.S. election kept investors on edge. The U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will take a measured approach to interest rate cuts, while a close battle in the upcoming U.S. election kept investors on edge. Four Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support on Monday for further rate cuts, but appeared to differ on how fast or far they believe any cuts should go. With the U.S. election just two weeks away, the rising odds of former President Donald Trump winning the Nov. 5 election are boosting the dollar, since his proposed tariff and tax policies are seen as likely to keep U.S. interest rates high. The yen on Tuesday was at 150.57 per dollar, hovering close to the two-and-half-month low of 150.88.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Harris, Komeito Organizations: U.S, Reserve, Fed ., Federal, Traders, Fed, Trump, PineBridge Investments, Liberal Democratic Party Locations: U.S, Treasuries
The reason why Treasury yields are rising isn't complicated — it's because investors are demanding more compensation for the risk they are taking when buying government debt. From a market standpoint, the burst higher in Treasury yields can be told through the "term premium." The moves higher in the term premium closely replicate those of other Treasury yields. However, traders are growing less certain about December, even though the Fed last month penciled in another 50 basis points in cuts this year. "The rise in term premium is the result of higher real interest rates and stronger economic data.
Persons: Donald Trump, David Rosenberg, Trump, Kamala Harris, Joseph LaVorgna Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Republican, Rosenberg Research, Trump, Democratic, Fed, Nikko Securities Locations: U.S, Nikko
Following Tuesday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 145 shares of HD, increasing its weighting to 1.65% from 1.14%. Dow stock Home Depot has dropped $18 per share — or a little more than 4% — since making a new high of $418 last Wednesday. Some of this decline is probably due to profit-taking since the stock has gone straight up since Sept. 6. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, nonfarm payrolls, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Dow, Home, Federal, UBS, CNBC
A bronze bull statue outside the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, India, on Monday, June 3, 2024. India's stock futures jumped after exit polls indicated a resounding victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party in general elections that concluded Saturday. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets slipped on Tuesday, trailing a mixed session on Wall Street. During the U.S. trading session, two Federal Reserve officials had spoken about the trajectory of interest rates. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said she supports the current move to lowering interest rates, but that a patient approach will be needed.
Persons: Narendra Modi's, Dhiraj Singh, Australia's, Kospi, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Nikkei, Hyundai, Federal, Minneapolis, Dallas Federal Locations: Mumbai, India, Getty Images Asia, Pacific, South, Asia, Hyundai India
Both have opined that the rally on Wall Street underscores a growing belief that former President Donald Trump will win on Nov. 5. However, I don't yet believe that Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue have intersected just yet. Indeed, if the stock market is anticipating a Trump victory, what might the bond market and gold market be telling us, assuming they expect the same outcome? Are those markets telling us a Trump victory would lead to higher inflation and bigger fiscal deficits? Those betting on a Trump win would be loath to say so if they follow the messages of multiple markets.
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Dan Loeb, Donald Trump, Loeb, it's, Dow Jones, Kamala Harris, Trump, Ron Insana Organizations: Senate, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Atlanta, Dow, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, European Central Bank, Trump, stoke, Democratic, Pennsylvania, CNBC Locations: U.S
On the earnings front, Tesla, UPS, and Boeing will report later in the week. AdvertisementUS stocks headed for their second losing session in a row, with major indexes slumping Tuesday morning amid a rise in bond yields. The key bond yield jumped above 4.2% for the first time since July. Boeing is also due to report on Wednesday, while UPS will report results on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:Here's what else happened today:AdvertisementIn commodities, bonds, and crypto:
Persons: Stocks, , Patrick Harker, Tesla Organizations: UPS, Boeing, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Here's
10-year Treasury yield tops 4.2% briefly
  + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Pia Singh Jenni Reid | Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury was about two basis points higher at 4.047%. After jumping 12 basis points on Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose nearly three basis points to 4.21%, a level it has not reached in three months. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued its gains on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials urged caution on the path of interest rate cuts. It is a quiet week on the data front, but a busy week for Federal Reserve commentary, with an array of policymakers delivering speeches. Rates have actually increased since the Fed cut rates by a half point one month ago.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Dallas Federal, Kansas, Traders Locations: U.S
Gold hovers near record high on safe-haven demand
  + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices rose on Tuesday and hovered near a record high hit in the previous session amid uncertainties around the U.S. election, ongoing Middle East tensions, and expectations of central banks' interest rate cuts. Gold prices rose on Tuesday and hovered near a record high hit in the previous session amid uncertainties around the U.S. election, ongoing Middle East tensions, and expectations of central banks' interest rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,729.91 per ounce by 0303 GMT. Gold hit its all-time high of $2,740.37 on Monday and has gained about 32% so far this year. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to a 12-week high in the last session, while the U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday.
Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: U.S, Fed, Citi Research Locations: tailwinds, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza
New technology, however, using drones, artificial intelligence and weather balloons aims to modernize and accelerate that process. Near Space Labs, a Brooklyn, New York-based startup, invented "Swifts," or stratospheric, AI-enabled robotic cameras that fly on weather balloons. The giant weather balloons fly twice as high as airplanes cruise. Insurance and reinsurance companies, like Swiss Re, are using Near Space to help them understand and price risk. In addition to Third Sphere, Near Space Labs is backed by Crosslink Capital, Wireframe Ventures, IAG Firemark Ventures, Toyota Ventures and Leadout Capital.
Persons: Helene, Milton, Rema Matevosyan, Matevosyan, Shaun Abrahamson, Lisa Rizzolo Organizations: Space Labs, Labs, Swifts, Insurance, Swiss, Crosslink, Wireframe Ventures, IAG Firemark Ventures, Toyota Ventures, Leadout, CNBC Locations: Brooklyn , New York
American consumers and businesses are having a hard time paying off credit card, auto, and commercial real estate debt. Bank CEOs said on recent earnings calls that elevated prices and interest rates continue to weigh on Americans. According to Federal Reserve data, the past-due debt share for credit card, auto, and commercial real estate has recently risen to above pre-pandemic levels. That's because some loans are coming due — forcing businesses to refinance at much higher interest rates. The financial roller coaster of pandemic payments, whipsawing inflation, and high interest rates are especially affecting lower-income Americans.
Persons: , Wells Fargo's, haven't, Bruce McClary, David Schiff, Schiff, Edmunds, Stephen Biggar, Biggar, Jane Fraser, Brian Moynihan, Charles Scharf, Wells, Jeremy Barnum, There's, I'm Organizations: Bank, Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of, New, Fed, National Foundation, Credit, Argus Research, Bank of America's Locations: Wells Fargo, delinquencies
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed 'mismanaged' rate cuts & long-term rates could continue to rise, says Komal Sri-KumarKomal Sri-Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies president, and Max Wasserman, Miramar Capital senior portfolio manager, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss economic outlooks, expectations for rates, and more.
Persons: Komal, Kumar Komal, Kumar, Max Wasserman, CNBC's Organizations: Kumar Global, Miramar Capital
The recent strong run in stocks could be just the beginning, according to Canaccord Genuity. The recent rally comes as the current bull market turned two years old. Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Welch thinks more gains could lie ahead. .SPX mountain 2022-10-12 SPX during bull market "The current two-year-old bull market remains below the median in both percent gain and duration, suggesting the upside has further room to run," he wrote Monday. The latest market run also comes as investors pore through third-quarter results.
Persons: Canaccord, Michael Welch, Welch, Goldman Sachs, Warby Parker, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S
The bank is adding to the growing numbers of forecasts for a "no landing" of the US economy. Inflation will remain low enough to leave room for the Fed to cut interest rates, boosting stocks. The job market is proving resilient, despite tighter financial conditions and higher interest rates. AdvertisementCooling price growth sets the stage for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, UBS said, which is bullish for stocks. The strategists added that while investors may see some volatility ahead of the November election, it's unlikely to interrupt more positive market catalysts.
Persons: Organizations: UBS, Fed, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New
New research from Wall Street analysts missed the mark on two of our industrial-focused stocks. The news on Stanley Black & Decker Baird increased Stanley Black & Decker's price target to $104 per share from $94. Baird reiterated its hold-equivalent rating on shares, arguing Stanley Black & Decker's "turnaround progress remains a key focus." SWK YTD mountain Stanley Black & Decker YTD Big picture Stocks tied to housing like Stanley Black & Decker have been under pressure lately because the 10-year Treasury yield keeps rising despite the Federal Reserve's jumbo 50-basis-point interest rate cut last month and signals of further easing into year-end and beyond. Stanley Black & Decker "will be ignited when those [rate cuts] start occurring in earnest," he said.
Persons: Stanley Black, Decker Baird, That's, Baird, Decker, Stocks, Stanley, Jim Cramer, DuPont Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley, Jim, Jim Cramer's, Michael M Organizations: Wall Street, Federal, DuPont, de Nemours, Barclays, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: New York City
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump works behind the counter during a visit to McDonalds in Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 20, 2024. Though President Donald Trump visited a Pennsylvania McDonald's location on Sunday, the fast-food giant is trying to stay neutral in the presidential race. Trump often accuses Harris of lying about working at McDonald's for a summer in her twenties, but has offered no proof backing up the claim. "Though we are not a political brand, we've been proud to hear former President Trump's love for McDonald's and Vice President Harris's fond memories working under the Arches," McDonald's said. To quell the controversy, McDonald's U.S. President Joe Erlinger wrote an open letter and released fact sheets about the company's pricing.
Persons: Donald Trump, we've, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump's, McDonald's, Derek Giacomantonio, Davidson, Joe Erlinger, CNBC's Kate Rogers Organizations: McDonalds, CNBC, Corporate America, Ford, Gallup, University of Bentley Locations: Feasterville, Trevose , Pennsylvania, U.S, Pennsylvania, , Pennsylvania, McDonald's, Connecticut
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose about 4 basis points to 4.112%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up about 2 basis points to 3.979%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are all expected to deliver remarks on Monday as investors await clues on the Fed's monetary policy outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee took the unusual step last month of lowering its baseline interest rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, to a target range of 4.75% to 5%.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, Jeff Schmid, Mary Daly, Christopher Waller, Waller, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, U.S, Dallas, San Francisco Fed, Market Locations: U.S, Minneapolis, Kansas
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