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While Treasury has the most sophisticated cash management system in the world and employs teams of highly trained economists, its coffers are a blur of payments going out and tax revenues coming in. When its cash balance runs painfully low — as was the case on Wednesday, when the Treasury General Account started the day with less than $100 billion — pinpointing the X-date becomes even harder to predict. On June 2, the government has to pay $25 billion in Social Security benefits and another $2 billion for Medicaid. During those two days, the government is projected to spend about $140 billion and bring in only $44 billion in tax revenue, leaving the nation’s coffers operating on fumes. One big problem this year is that tax revenues have been coming in at a more tepid pace than anticipated.
Several measures from Friday's jobs report show the labor market is stronger than it's been in decades. But Terrazas pointed to potential concerns in the labor market and for interest rates. "If it's the former, it's just a matter of time before gravity catches up with the labor market," Terrazas said. Overall though, the different robust labor market data suggests the US could maybe avoid a recession as has been the case so far in 2023. Despite potential risks in the job market, Pollak believes there's a possibility that the US continues to avoid a recession.
Startups Have Headed Off Failure By Doing These Things
  + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Marc Vartabedian | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
When the venture-capital financing market began to sputter last year, investors told their portfolio companies to make swift changes or risk going under. Roughly a year later, a picture is emerging of what type of belt-tightening occurred and what worked best. Startups made a variety of cuts to survive, investors say. Some made traditional moves, such as trimming new product offerings. Others took more unconventional paths like preserving sales and marketing divisions, which have traditionally been among the first on the...
The year-to-date rally can't last, according to Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. He added: "This is a perfect analogy for where equity investors find themselves today, and quite frankly, where they've been many times over the past decade." Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist David Kostin has said he is also skeptical of the market's gains so far in 2023. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's top stock strategist Marko Kolanovic, a long-time equities bull, says investors should ditch stocks because a recession is coming.
One of Wall Street's biggest bears believes the stock market could surge to record highs in 2024. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson told CNBC on Tuesday that the stock market will survive its current earnings recession. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. But the stock market should be able to manage all of those issues and eventually shake them off, according to Wilson. "I think we could see new highs sometime probably next year if everything sort of plays out the way that we think."
The earlier sell-off in the dollar came after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates. In afternoon trading, the U.S. currency rose against the commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which sensitive to risk appetite. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to US$0.6936, after hitting its highest since August last year. In Japan, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The dollar rose as much as 2.7% to 131.58 yen before gains were pared.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Two-thirds of private and public sector chief economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) expect a global recession in 2023, the Davos-organiser said on Monday as business and government leaders gathered for its annual meeting. Some 18% considered a world recession "extremely likely" - more than twice as many as in the previous survey conducted in September 2022. Only one-third of respondents to the survey viewed it as unlikely this year. Definitions of what constitutes recession differ around the world but generally include the prospect of shrinking economies, possibly with high inflation in a "stagflation" scenario. On inflation, the WEF survey saw large regional variations: the proportion expecting high inflation in 2023 ranged from just 5% for China to 57% for Europe, where the impact of last year's rise in energy prices has spread to the wider economy.
Morning Bid: Risk on, risk off
  + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
European company results kick-off in earnest on Wednesday, with retailer Sainsbury (SBRY.L) and JD Sports reporting. On the macro economic front, the World Bank cut its 2023 growth forecasts to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia's war in Ukraine continues and the world's major economic engines sputter. The U.S. consumer price index report on Thursday is the big event for markets. The report is expected to show December's headline inflation at 6.5% versus 7.1% in November. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:RESULTS: Sainsbury, JD Sports, Barratt DevelopmentsReporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Dollar, euro rangebound ahead of U.S. inflation report
  + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar was little changed on Wednesday versus the euro and other major currencies as traders held off from making big moves ahead of U.S. inflation data on Thursday, which may offer a clearer picture of where interest rates are headed. The euro was up 0.3% at $1.07675 against the dollar. "Unless the global growth backdrop continues to improve more materially, we expect dollar downside to remain constrained," Rosenberg said. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, including the euro, dipped 0.068% to 103.18. The Australian dollar edged up 0.04% to $0.6896 after data showed the annual pace of inflation increased to 7.3% in November, leaving room for more rate hikes.
REUTERS/Andrew KellyWASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The World Bank slashed its 2023 growth forecasts on Tuesday to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia's war in Ukraine continues, and the world's major economic engines sputter. The development lender said it expected global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023, the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions since 1993. In its previous Global Economic Prospects report in June 2022, the bank had forecast 2023 global growth at 3.0%. It forecast global growth in 2024 to pick up to 2.7% -- below the 2.9% estimate for 2022 -- and said average growth for the 2020-2024 period would be under 2% -- the slowest five-year pace since 1960. China's growth in 2022 slumped to 2.7%, its second slowest pace since the mid-1970s after 2020, as zero-COVID restrictions, property market turmoil and drought hit consumption, production and investment, the World Bank report said.
WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The World Bank slashed its 2023 growth forecasts on Tuesday to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia's war in Ukraine continues, and the world's major economic engines sputter. The development lender said it now expected global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023 -- the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions in nearly three decades. In its previous Global Economic Prospects report, in June 2022, the bank had forecast 2023 global growth at 3.0%The bank said major slowdowns in advanced economies, including sharp cuts to its forecast to 0.5% for both the United States and the euro zone, could foreshadow a new global recession less than three years after the last one. China's growth in 2022 slumped to 2.7%, its second slowest pace since the mid-1970s after 2020, as zero-COVID restrictions, property market turmoil and drought hit consumption, production and investment, the World Bank report said. The World Bank noted that some inflationary pressures started to abate as 2022 drew to a close, with lower energy and commodity prices, but warned that risks of new supply disruptions were high, and elevated core inflation may persist.
Quick-thinking kayakers are being hailed as heroes after helping rescue a pilot whose single-engine plane crashed Monday morning into an icy creek in Maryland, authorities said. The aircraft plummeted into Beards Creek in Edgewater near the Lee Airport shortly before 10:30 a.m., according to Maryland State Police. While the plane was sinking, the pilot exited his plane and stood on the wing. A small plane crashed into an icy creek in Maryland on Monday. WRC/WBALShortly after, personnel with the Maryland Department of Natural Resources arrived by boat, police said.
"Now, concerns over economic growth seem to be overtaking those over inflation," he added. The darkening economic outlook drove fresh safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar on Wednesday and longer-dated bonds extended their gains, while oil eased after a sharp fall on Tuesday. The Australian dollar was broadly steady at $0.669 despite Australian third-quarter growth coming in a bit below forecasts. The Canadian dollar was at 1.3675 per dollar ahead of an expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada later on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 105.6, further above the June 2022 low of 104.1 hit on Monday.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.2% and Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.7%. The growth fears rallied longer-dated bonds and helped the safe-haven U.S. dollar to pause its recent retreat. That is more than 80 bps below the two-year yield as investors reckon on high rates hurting growth. The Australian dollar was broadly steady at $0.6680 despite Australian third-quarter growth coming in a bit below forecasts. The U.S. dollar index sat at 105.5.
HONG KONG—China’s richest saw the biggest drop in their collective wealth in decades over the past year, as the country’s stock markets plunged and the economy slowed, in large part due to Beijing’s zero-tolerance policy toward Covid-19. Both the Forbes and Hurun Rich List of China’s wealthiest people released this week showed a sharp drop in the fortunes of the country’s tycoons. Forbes on Thursday said China’s 100 richest saw their collective wealth decline by $573 billion since last year’s rankings, the biggest drop since the magazine began tracking the country’s wealthiest more than two decades ago.
Amid a poor-return environment for the broader market, he shared what he's looking for in stocks. Stocks dropped quickly on Wednesday afternoon after the hike was announced and as Powell reiterated the FOMC's hawkish intentions. "We've had a nice little run here in the stock market — it's the third double-digit percentage gain since the bear market started," Doll said. 9 stocks Doll likes right nowWith Doll's outlook being that the broader market is doomed to a range-bound near-term future, he said he's focusing on so-called quality stocks — firms with quality income statements, balance sheets, and management teams. Doll also listed quality stocks in the health maintenance organization (HMO) space.
The great labor shortage caused by the declining population will cripple our global economy unless we find innovative ways to keep things running. The German working population will have declined by a third, based on the average scenario from the researchers, and in Italy, Spain, and Greece it will have declined by more than half. We are already experiencing the beginning of this great labor shortage in industries ranging from airlines to day cares. In the US, the increase in the number of retirees compared with the working population is already straining the system. To combat the coming population bust, the world will need nothing less than a revolution of our minds.
5 signs the world is headed for a recession
  + stars: | 2022-10-02 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +12 min
New York CNN Business —Around the world, markets are flashing warning signs that the global economy is teetering on a cliff’s edge. There’s now a 98% chance of a global recession, according to research firm Ned Davis, which brings some sobering historical credibility to the table. In an interview, its CEO was asked whether he believes the slowdown was a sign of a looming global recession. The upshotWhile the consensus is that a global recession is likely sometime in 2023, it’s impossible to predict how severe it will be or how long it will last. Not every recession is as painful as the 2007-09 Great Recession, but every recession is, of course, painful.
(CNN) HBO has followed the majesty of "Game of Thrones" with what might be called "games of throne" in "House of the Dragon," a series whose epic visual grandeur belies a smaller and less addictive power struggle, more narrowly focused on the Targaryen line. It's not bad, and there are dragons aplenty, but it doesn't produce the sort of characters that defined and elevated its predecessor to prestige-TV royalty. Martin 's prequel "Fire & Blood," the new series has the disadvantage of being set almost two centuries before the key events in "Game of Thrones," taking place 172 years prior to the birth of Daenerys Targaryen. That ratchets up the pressure to sink or swim -- or rather, soar or sputter -- strictly on its own terms. (As an aside, all those flowing blond-white Targaryen locks should lock up a hairdressing Emmy, if nothing else.)
In 2017, he became the CEO of data company Helios & Matheson Analytics. At that price MoviePass would start losing money when a subscriber used the service more than once a month. MoviePass CEO Mitch Lowe and Helios & Matheson CEO Ted Farnsworth after the company hit 1 million subscribers. The same day MoviePass reached 1 million subscribers, a milestone it hit faster than Netflix and Hulu. Related storiesTo draw a crowd, MoviePass blasted out an invitation to the Big Boi show to its then 2 million subscribers.
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