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New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time is coming for interest rate cuts, but asked Americans for a bit more patience in the central bank’s fight against inflation. That means the Fed is due to cut rates in 2024, which officials themselves projected in December. But the central bank’s January policy statement pushed back on expectations of the first rate cut coming at their next meeting in March. Still, financial markets see a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates in March and a 71.3% chance they cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But that hasn’t stopped Congress from pressuring Powell to cut rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, “ We’ve, ” Powell, , Price, Powell, , Scott Pelley, can’t, hasn’t, Democratic Sen, Sherrod Brown, ” Brown, Brown, Elizabeth Warren, we’re Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, CBS, Fed, Federal Reserve, Governors, Democratic, Banking, New York Community Bancorp, New York Community Locations: New York, Street, Ukraine, Asia,
The latest jobs data shows that America's job market remains shockingly robust in the face of the highest interest rates in 23 years. And the January report could have finally quelled Wall Street's belief that the Federal Reserve could start to cut interest rates as soon as March, according to futures. About a month ago, the odds of a March cut were north of 75%, but as of Friday morning, they were at 19.5%. The Fed's March 19-20 meeting is still several weeks away and many economic reports are due by then, but investors finally seem to be coming to grip with what Fed officials have been communicating all along. The January jobs report shows that demand is expected to remain solid, with Americans employed and enjoying strong wage growth.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , ” Sarah House, , , Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San
That’s the Fed’s latest attempt at giving Wall Street a reality check on rate cuts. Fed officials have been communicating that sentiment for weeks now, and Wednesday’s statement is yet another signal from the Fed that investors need to rethink their bets. In early January, futures showed that rate cuts were very likely going to happen in March, but those odds have since crumbled, and they may continue to dip. There are consequences if the Fed cuts rates too soon and if it cuts too late. Fed officials have said they likely need to see “below-trend growth” to be assured that inflation is on its way to 2%.
Persons: Price, , , Jerome Powell, Subadra Rajappa, Générale Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, CNN, Fed Locations: Washington
Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.
Persons: that’s, , Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, , ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron
Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.
Persons: , Christopher Waller, , who’ve, Loretta Mester, , Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, , JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States
Used cars count among the durable items that can benefit from goods deflation. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesAfter a historic run-up in inflation, Americans are now starting to see something they haven’t in three years: deflation. To be sure, deflation—that is, falling prices—is largely confined to appliances, furniture, used cars and other goods. Economywide deflation, when prices of most goods and services continuously fall, isn’t in the cards.
Persons: Justin Sullivan Locations: isn’t
Used cars count among the durable items that can benefit from goods deflation. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesAfter a historic run-up in inflation, Americans are now starting to see something they haven’t in three years: deflation. To be sure, deflation—that is, falling prices—is largely confined to appliances, furniture, used cars and other goods. Economywide deflation, when prices of most goods and services continuously fall, isn’t in the cards.
Persons: Justin Sullivan Locations: isn’t
Inflation’s Cooldown Gives the Fed Leeway
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The personal-consumption expenditures price index is one of the Fed’s most closely watched gauges of inflation. Markets are betting the new data puts the Fed on pace to cut rates in 2024. That was its slimmest year-over-year gain since March 2021. Core prices, which exclude food and energy items in an effort to better track inflation’s underlying trend, rose 0.2% from September. That put them 3.5% above their year-earlier level for the smallest gain since April 2021.
Persons: Dion Rabouin, Rucosky Sit Organizations: The Commerce Department
While Powell and other officials say they’re not even thinking about cutting rates just yet, some investors expect cuts to begin around the middle of next year. With Treasury yields sliding in recent weeks, so have mortgage rates, and rate cuts next year would help that along. Inflation, spending and mortgagesConsumer spending and inflation both eased in October, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. What Fed officials are sayingFed officials have broadly acknowledged that economic conditions are setting the stage for inflation to continue its descent. While some Fed officials have expressed optimism, others remain unconvinced that the Fed’s job is done.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, , Powell, they’re, Freddie Mac, Christopher Waller, John Williams, “ We’ve, Michelle Bowman, Organizations: DC CNN — Investors, Federal, Spelman College, Treasury, Fed, December’s Fed, Commerce Department, , Washington . New York Fed, New York Fed Locations: Washington, Atlanta, September’s, America, doldrums, Washington . New, Salt Lake City
That was the lowest year-over-year inflation rate in more than 2 1/2 years. Core prices rose 3.5% in October from a year earlier, below the 3.7% year-over-year increase in September. Those price increases, though smaller than they were last year, are still faster than was typically true before the pandemic. The declines in spending on those items suggests that the Fed's rate increases are discouraging purchases in some areas. The central bank’s rate rate hikes have elevated the costs of mortgages, auto loans and other forms of consumer borrowing as well as business loans.
Persons: They've, ” Vincent Reinhart, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Dreyfus, Mellon, AAA, Fed Locations: Europe, U.S
Munger, a billionaire investor and vice chairman of Buffett’s investment firm Berkshire Hathaway, died Tuesday morning at 99 years old. (Berkshire Hathaway shares, which didn’t have different classes then, ended 1977 at $138 a share.) Projections of Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chairman and chief executive officer, and Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire outperformed the S&P 500 during 31 of the 46 years Munger was at the company, according to Bespoke. The Christmas Price Index, now in its 40th year, is a tongue-in-cheek take on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index and is meant to highlight market changes over time while educating consumers about the economy.
Persons: Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Munger, ” Munger, Charlie, Michael Broggie, , , Charles Munger, Daniel Acker, Buffett’s, – Munger, inflation’s, Alicia Wallace, Read, Jordan Valinsky, didn’t Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Berkshire, Berkshire Hathaway, Investment, Harvard Law School, Berkshire Hathaway Inc, Bloomberg, Getty, Daily, PNC Financial Services, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Nevada . Rite, Rite Aid, Amazon, Walmart, Target, Costco Locations: New York, Munger, Omaha, Berkshire, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio , Virginia, Washington, Michigan , New Jersey , Oregon, Connecticut , Maryland, Nevada
The Christmas Price Index, now in its 40th year, is a tongue-in-cheek take on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index and is meant to highlight market changes over time while educating consumers about the economy. The holiday index also is running a touch cooler than its traditional counterpart, the Consumer Price Index, which was up 3.2% for the 12 months ended in October and 7.7% this time last year. Pricier doves and live performancesThe Christmas Price Index leans more heavily on discretionary purchases than the broad basket of goods and services that feed into the Consumer Price Index. The core Christmas Price Index rose 3.7% this year, a far more muted increase than last year’s 15.4% gain. “The Christmas Price Index is a very specialty gift basket.
Persons: inflation’s, ” Amanda Agati, “ We’re, , ” Agati, , hasn’t, Agati, , it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, PNC Financial Services, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Federal, CNN, Consumer, PNC Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Washington, DC CNN —US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year. Wednesday’s latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated. Nonresidential fixed investment, or business spending, was revised up to a growth rate of 1.3% in the third quarter from a decline of 0.1%. Fourth-quarter spending likely won’t be as piping hot, however. Fed officials pay close attention to various facets of the US economy when deliberating monetary policy, including growth.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, , Christopher Waller, American Enterprise Institute . Waller, Michelle Bowman Organizations: DC CNN, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Adobe Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, Employers, Atlanta Fed, Federal, , American Enterprise Institute ., Fed Locations: Washington, EY, Salt Lake City
A large depreciation didn’t fully materialize; rather, the dollar’s value in the parallel retail market – popularly known as the “blue dollar” – increased some 13%. Milei, an outsider and right-wing populist, has also accused the Central Bank of recklessly printing money in order to fund public spending. The government has made access to foreign currency increasingly more stringent, which has caused the parallel market to flourish. “It isn’t exactly full, but there’s a lot in there,” she said, declining to provide her last name because trading foreign currency under the table is illegal. “Listening to the radio and looking on the internet, there isn’t any craziness about dollar, dollar, dollar,” he said.
Persons: Leandro Francisco Diana, Javier Milei, , , Diana, Villa Crespo, Milei, Javier, Giselle, Argentina isn't, Maria Castiglioni, ” Castiglioni, Alexi Hoyos, Hoyos, ” Diana, videojournalist Mauricio Cuevas Organizations: U.S ., U.S, Central Bank, Radio Mitre Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Buenos Aires, New York, Miami, Florida
As Rent Rises Cool, So Will Inflation
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Will the strong U.S. economic data we’ve seen push the Fed to change policy this year? What comes next depends on how the Fed will interpret the data. Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg NewsInflation has been cooling, and a big part of why is that rent increases have as well. That is also why inflation is likely to keep going lower in the months ahead. Tuesday’s inflation report from the Labor Department showed that overall consumer prices were up 3.2% from a year earlier in October, while core prices, which exclude food and energy prices in an effort to better track inflation’s underlying trend, were up 4%.
Persons: WSJ’s Dion Rabouin, Sarah Silbiger Organizations: Bloomberg, Labor Department
Heard on the Street: A Soft Landing Is in View as Inflation Drops
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Retail gasoline prices are lower now than they were in October. (cristobal herrera-ulashkevich/Shutterstock)A soft landing for the economy still isn’t guaranteed. But the drop in inflation makes it easier for the Federal Reserve to foam the runway. The decline in gasoline prices helped, but core prices—which exclude food and energy prices in an effort to better track inflation’s underlying trend—rose just 0.2% from a month earlier. That put core prices up 4% from a year earlier, the smallest gain since September 2021.
Persons: cristobal herrera Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department
Compared with 12 months ago, consumer prices rose 3.2% in October, down from the 3.7% rise in September and the smallest year-over-year increase since June. Measured year over year, core prices rose 4% in October, down from 4.1% in September, the smallest rise in two years. They have continued to fall into November, suggesting that cheaper energy could hold down inflation this month as well. Political Cartoons View All 1244 ImagesGrocery store prices rose 0.3% last month and 2.1% from a year earlier. Even with the smaller increase, rental and housing costs accounted for two-thirds of the increase in core inflation compared with a year ago.
Persons: Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Powell, , Adams, , Eric Winograd Organizations: WASHINGTON, Labor Department, Comerica Bank ., Fed, Dow, AB Global Locations: United States
Fed officials don’t expect inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic projections released in September. If there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations. The keyword there is “timely.”Sticky inflation could possibly “un-anchor” inflation expectations or elicit a consistent deterioration in Americans’ perception on inflation. “The Fed really just wants people to not expect inflation will run at 4% forever.”So what’s kept inflation expectations in check this long? For individuals and married people filing separately, the new federal standard deduction will increase to $14,600, up from $13,850 this year.
Persons: we’ve, Raphael Bostic, , ” Luke Tilley, , Jerome Powell, presser, Powell, Michelle Bowman, Tilley, ” Drew Matus, what’s, Matus, “ They’re, Jeanne Sahadi, Lisa Cook, Phillip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Investment Advisors, CNN, , New York Bankers Association, New York Fed, MetLife Investment Management, IRS, Tyson Foods, Depot, US Labor Department, National Federation of Independent Business, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Target, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, Walmart, National Association of Home Builders, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, Wilmington, Palm Beach , Florida
Washington, DC CNN —Americans are becoming gloomier about the economy with interest rates at a 22-year high and economic growth widely expected to slow. That was the fourth consecutive month that sentiment soured, after improving over the summer. Meanwhile, both short-term and long-term inflation expectations worsened this month. Americans’ expectations for inflation rates in the year ahead rose to 4.4% in November, up from October’s 4.2% reading. In a worrisome sign for the Federal Reserve, long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.2% this month, the highest level since 2011.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Jerome Powell, it’s, ” Powell, Stocks, , Powell Organizations: DC CNN, University, Federal Reserve, Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Washington, Gaza, Ukraine
Bidenomics Gets No Respect
  + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Daniel Henninger | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Images: AP/AFP/EPA/Getty Images Composite: Mark KellyJoe Biden is back in his comfort zone, at least for him, if not for the Democratic Party. Bidenomics was supposed to be Mr. Biden’s path to a second term. The latest dark cloud is the New York Times /Siena College poll that found in five battleground states Mr. Biden is running behind the Permanent Defendant, Donald Trump. Conventional wisdom—conventional because there’s something to it—blames Mr. Biden’s age (a nice word for neurological decline), inflation’s lingering effects, high interest rates and John Q. Public’s sour mood. Nearly three years after Mr. Biden’s inauguration, more than 70% think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Persons: Mark Kelly Joe Biden, He’s, Bidenomics, Biden, Donald Trump, , John Q, Biden’s Organizations: AFP, EPA, Democratic Party, Amtrak, New York Times, Siena College
What to expect from today’s Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
That would be the second consecutive meeting the Fed keeps rates unchanged. But that doesn’t mean the Fed is done hiking rates. Still, hawkish Fed officials — those who back a more aggressive approach to addressing inflation — believe there’s more room to raise rates. Domestic spending has continued at a strong pace and the labor market remains tight,” Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said last month in Morocco. The strong economy will likely slowDespite the Fed’s 11 rate hikes since March 2022, the US economy has displayed remarkable resilience.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , ” Powell, Michelle Bowman, ” Luke Tilley, Powell, Banks, , Nela Richardson Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, hawkish Fed, , Labor Department, Wilmington Trust, CNN Locations: Washington, New York, Morocco, Wilmington, Israel
Inflation Trends Keep Fed Rate Hikes on Pause
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Harriet Torry | Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
WSJ’s Dion Rabouin unpacks the latest GDP report and explains what it says about the state of the economy. Photo: Li Jianguo/Zuma PressInflation’s summer decline slowed last month. But inflation has improved enough recently for Federal Reserve officials to hold interest rates steady at their meeting next week. The personal-consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% in September from the prior month, the same pace as in August, the Commerce Department said Friday. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% in September, compared with a 0.1% rise in August.
Persons: WSJ’s Dion Rabouin, Li Jianguo Organizations: Zuma Press, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department
The central bank also doesn’t have any incentive to restrict the economy through elevated interest rates if inflation is already under control. The US central bank has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 to their highest level in 22 years. The US Commerce Department reports new home sales in September. The US Commerce Department reports third-quarter gross domestic product along with September figures on new durable-goods orders. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended October 21.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Gregory Daco, ” Diane Swonk, Donald Trump, Colin Kaepernick’s, Bud Light’s, Elliott Gotkine, , Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, , Satya Nadella, ” Sundar Pichai, ​ ​, Sherwin, Williams, Clark, General, Hess, Rowe Price Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, The Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, KPMG, BlackRock, America, Nike, Yale School of Management, Microsoft, ” Disney, Sonnenfeld, Tottenham Hotspur, Whirlpool, Verizon, General Electric, Barclays, 3M, General Motors, Spotify, Quest Diagnostics, Mobile, Boeing, General Dynamics, Old Dominion, Hilton, Meta, IBM, US Commerce Department, Mastercard, Merck, Comcast, UPS, Myers Squibb, Northrop Grumman, Valero, The Hershey Company, Amazon, Intel, European Central Bank, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate, Palmolive, Phillips, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, EY, Israel, United States, United Kingdom, London, Gaza, Kimberly, Haliburton, Old, Bristol, AbbVie
The Fed released its summary of economic projections at the latest FOMC meeting. What does it say about the current state of the economy and what will policy makers do next? Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg NewsFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that he is pleased with inflation’s decline this summer and that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates again unless it sees clear evidence that stronger economic activity jeopardizes such progress. “Given the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the committee is proceeding carefully,” Powell said in prepared remarks for a Thursday lunchtime address in New York. “Incoming data over recent months show ongoing progress toward both” of the Fed’s goals to maintain stable inflation and strong employment.
Persons: Al Drago, Jerome Powell, ” Powell Organizations: Fed, Bloomberg Locations: New York
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