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In late July, the central bank estimated that it would require the U.K. Treasury to backstop £150 billion ($189 billion) of losses on its asset purchase facility (APF). It saw the BOE accrue £895 billion worth of bond holdings while interest rates were historically low. However, the pace at which the central bank has had to tighten monetary policy in a bid to tame inflation means the costs have risen more sharply than anticipated. watch now"First, interest rates have risen far above levels assumed in the fiscal watchdog's spring forecasts. "On the other hand, though, while QE gilts are not sold, the BoE pays Bank Rate on the ~£900bn reserves it created to buy them.
Persons: Dan Kitwood, BOE, Sanjay Raja, Raja, Imogen Bachra, BoE, Bachra, QE Organizations: Bank of England, Getty, Deutsche Bank ., Treasury, AFP, Deutsche Bank, Bank, NatWest, Locations:
Stock futures wavered as investors awaited another reading on inflation. Stocks got a small bump yesterday after the consumer-price index showed modest underlying price pressures . Stock futures oscillated. Gilts led a selloff in European government bonds, the FTSE 100 slid and the pound rallied, after data showed the U.K. economy grew last quarter. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 2% after data showed a steep drop in new loans issued by Chinese banks, signaling that credit demand remains weak.
Persons: Stocks, Gilts Organizations: Stock, Nasdaq, Dow, Bank of England, UBS, Credit Suisse, Overseas Locations: U.S, Swiss, Europe, Shanghai
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A reappraisal of the dollar could be the next big "pain trade". Dollar jumps as US 2-year yield premium builds vs G7Net short dollar contracts from CFTCBofA chart on fund managers dollar viewSMILEFor the dollar at least, it starts to look less of a one-way rate bet. For those who favour intra-G7 interest rate differentials for guidance, the picture is not much better for dollar bears. But if "soft landings", disinflation and buoyant markets continue to rule the roost, it may be hard work for the outsize "anti-dollar" bet. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: There's, BoE, What's, it's, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Bank of England, gilts, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan
Banks to fuel boom in UK Plc regular dividend payouts
  + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The estimate from financial services company Computershare is 2.7 billion pounds higher than its April forecast and reflects improved profit prospects across the rate-sensitive industry. Computershare's latest quarterly Dividend Monitor showed bank payouts rose 61% on an underlying basis to around 7.8 billion pounds in the second quarter. The sector is set to raise headline payouts by over 3 billion pounds this year. That estimate is 1 billion pounds more than what it forecast three months ago. In the second quarter, UK dividends rose 3.5% on an underlying basis, but fell 9% to 32.8 billion pounds on a headline basis, it said.
Persons: Computershare, Rio, Danilo Masoni, Amanda Cooper, David Evans Organizations: MILAN, HSBC, Bank of England, Rio Tinto, Tobacco, Thomson
LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - The Bank of England forecast on Tuesday that it would make a net loss of just over 150 billion pounds ($193 billion) over the next 10 years as it unwinds its quantitative easing (QE) gilt purchases, up from 100 billion pounds projected in April. In the short term, the BoE expects the government to pay around 40 billion pounds a year in 2023, 2024 and 2025, roughly 10 billion pounds a year more than its last estimate in April. Markets currently expect BoE rates to peak at 5.75% later this year, up from around 5% at the time of April's report. The BoE projections assume holdings continue to fall at their current target rate of 80 billion pounds a year. That is still more than 50 billion pounds greater than forecast in April.
Persons: Rishi, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, David Milliken, Paul Sandle, Kylie MacLellan, Andy Bruce Organizations: Bank of England, Conservative Party, Thomson
But management of central bank balance sheets could help - even if central bankers are keen to publicly disassociate the process from monetary policy goals per se. But the U.S. central bank can be more comfortable nearing peak rates with inflation much closer to target than Europe's central banks - where future trade-offs may be more tempting. G3 central bank balance sheetsFed share of Treasury marketReuters GraphicsBACKGROUND NOISE? Ramsden laced his comments with caution about not confusing the run-down of the BoE's "asset purchase facility" with its central policy task. And they reckoned an increase in the volume of QT should theoretically lead to higher term premia in euro bond markets.
Persons: Dave Ramsden, BoE, Ramsden, there's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S
Morning Bid: Britain's CPI the next frontier
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A tentative rally in gilts is poised to extend and sterling could probably say goodbye to the strong side of $1.30. Forecasts put Britain's annual CPI falling to 8.2% in June and core holding at 7.1%. New Zealand sounded a warning in the Asia session, with food prices keeping annual headline inflation higher than expected at 6%. Netflix (NFLX.O), Tesla (TSLA.O) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) report results later in the day. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:Data: British CPI, Euro zone final CPI, U.S. housing startsSpeakers: Bank of England's Dave RamsdenEarnings: Netflix, Tesla, Goldman SachsReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tom Westbrook, BoE, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of England's Dave Ramsden, Muralikumar Organizations: Bank of, Traders, U.S, Netflix, Microsoft, CPI, Bank of England's, Tesla, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, gilts, New Zealand, Asia
For markets, BoE communication is bottom of the class
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank expectations have meanwhile risen only marginally. For investors, clear communication from central bankers is crucial as they transmit their policy to borrowing costs through markets. The BoE was the first major central bank to start hiking rates. In contrast, they have long bet on more hikes than the BoE's main forecasts have implied are needed to tame inflation, rates futures show. BoE messaging, suggesting a reluctance to hike, has made it "very difficult" to own gilts recently, he said.
Persons: BoE, Toby Melville, Shamik Dhar, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Schroders, Azad Zangana, Zangana, Liz Truss, Myles Bradshaw, Chris Jeffery, Jerome, Powell, Christine, Lagarde, it's, Craig, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, William Schomberg, John Stonestreet Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, of England, Traders, . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Bank of England's, Investors, Graphics, of England's, Reuters, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, U.S, Dhar
European shares inch lower ahead of US jobs report
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
July 7 (Reuters) - European shares edged lower on Friday, following sharp losses in the previous session, after U.S. data that showed a still strong labor market, while investors await a key U.S. jobs report due later in the day for more clues on interest rate outlook. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) fell 0.4% by 0710 GMT, set for its worst week since mid-March, led by declines in utilities shares (.SX6P), which slid 1.2%. European equities took a hit on Thursday after private payrolls in the United States surged far more than expected in June, suggesting the labor market remained solid despite growing risks of a recession. Investors will be hawkeyed on the American non-farm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. The report is expected to show a drop in number of jobs created in the U.S. in June compared to a month earlier.
Persons: Matteo Allievi, Shubham Batra, Janane Organizations: Shell, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Gdansk, Bangalore
LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - Unsure which way the cookie crumbles from here - investors are being tempted to drop the bond. The broadest measures of government and corporate bonds have just stuck in mud. Two-year government bond yields are soaring. With June U.S. jobs growth going up yet another gear, U.S. Treasury yields hit 16-year highs above 5%, German equivalents hit their highest in 15 years and British gilt yields scaled 2008 peaks. For all but longer-term pension and insurance funds or banks, bonds may be neither fish nor fowl for a while to come.
Persons: hasn't, Stocks, midyear underperformance, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: Global, Bloomberg U.S, Treasury, Bank of, JPMorgan, Europe, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson
Morning Bid: Data-hit bond markets end summer lull
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
On top of that, there were signs that activity at dominant U.S. service sector firms picked up steam again last month too. Friday's release of the Labor Department's monthly national payrolls report will seal the picture. U.S. Treasury yields hit 16-year highs above 5%, German equivalents hit their highest in 15 years and British gilt yields scaled 2008 peaks. The VIX (.VIX) gauge of implied Wall St volatility - which had been peculiarly subdued right through last month - jumped to its highest since June 1. Crucially, 2-year Treasury yields edged back below 5%.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Lorie Logan, payrolls, HSI, Janet Yellen's, Elon, Lorrie Logan, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Emelia Sithole Organizations: readouts, Federal, Labor, Dallas Fed, Fed, Treasury, Nikkei, Twitter, Meta, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Bank of England, NATO, Vilnius Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, China, Canada, New York, Vilnius Reuters
Morning Bid: Markets labor on China, three jobs gauges
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets have taken a hit from a deepening selloff in China as they await critical health checks on U.S. employment over the next two days. Although Fed futures pricing for the year ahead changed little overnight, two-year U.S. Treasury yields edged up closer to 5%. ADP's June take on private sector payrolls, the latest weekly jobless claims numbers and details of May job openings all hit the slate later. Consensus forecasts have ADP reporting another 228,000 jobs last month, jobless claims ticking higher last week and vacancies falling in May. Events to watch for later on Thursday:* U.S. June ADP private sector jobs report, weekly jobless claims and May JOLTS job openings data.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Janet Yellen, Goldman Sachs, restating, John Williams, Elon Musk, Lorrie Logan, Elaine Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Goldman, Federal, New York Fed, Labor Department's, Dallas Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul, British, Europe
LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Britain sold a government bond at auction on Wednesday that will pay investors an annual return of 5.668% - the highest yield of any gilt sold since 2007, as markets demand extra returns in anticipation of further Bank of England rate rises. The last time the average yield at a gilt auction was higher was in June 2007, when 2.5 billion pounds of five-year gilts sold at an average yield of 5.790%. Before that, the highest yield was in September 1999 when 2.7 billion pounds of 10-year gilts were sold at an average yield of 5.694%. When the October 2025 gilt was sold at auction last month the yield was 4.874%, and at its launch in January it paid investors a yield of 3.634%. Bond strategists at NatWest last week described it as "one of the cheapest bonds on the UK fitted curve".
Persons: BoE, Andrew Bailey, gilts, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Bank of, United, Debt Management, NatWest, Thomson Locations: Britain
"We are positioned for a very big bond rally, and we think that risky assets are completely underestimating the risk of a recession or something nasty happening," he added. (.MERW0G1)An early sign that the bond outlook is improving came last week with data showing euro zone business growth stalled in June. In response, German bond yields, which move inversely to prices, posted their second biggest daily drop since March. But highlighting how hard economic data has become to read, higher-than-expected U.S. first quarter growth and German inflation sent yields surging on Thursday. Major central banks fighting a surge in inflation have collectively raised borrowing costs by over 3,750 bps since September 2021.
Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Riddell, Viraj Patel, Vanda's Patel, BoE, Urban, Jill Hirzel, Dhara Ranasinghe, Harry Robertson, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, Vanda Research, Deutsche Bank, General Investment Management, Insight Investment, Thomson Locations: Washington, hawkish, Canada, Britain, Norway, Sintra, Germany, United States, U.S
FALLING STARWhen Odey set up Odey Asset Management, it was in the afterglow of then British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's deregulation of the stock market in London's 1986 "Big Bang". Privately educated at the elite Harrow school, Odey left Oxford University and began his career in traditional asset management before launching Odey Asset Management. But fund performance at Odey Asset Management has been a rollercoaster, with Odey renowned for taking risks. He liked to say leverage was like a drug - once you experienced it, you could never live without it, one hedge fund manager said. Lawmakers on Britain's Treasury Select Committee have written to the FCA to question the regulator's supervision of Odey Asset Management and Odey.
Persons: Crispin Odey, Odey, Banks, Robert Sears, CIOs, Don Steinbrugge, Margaret Thatcher's, Egerton Capital, Marshall Wace, Winton, Kwasi Kwarteng, Maiya Keidan, Nell Mackenzie, Iain Withers, Lawrence White, Dhara Ranasinghe, Elisa Martinuzzi, Alex Richardson Organizations: TORONTO, Reuters, Odey Asset Management, FT, Tortoise Media, Odey, Management, Britain's Financial, Authority, Generation Partners, Odey's, HSBC, Inc, Wall Street, Agecroft Partners, British, Harrow, Oxford University, Conservative Party, Barclays, Peugeot, Hong Kong, Lawmakers, FCA, Thomson Locations: LONDON, City, London, Toronto
A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021. Hollie Adams | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday surprised markets with a 50 basis point hike to interest rates, its 13th consecutive increase as policymakers grapple with persistently high inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the half percentage point increase, which takes the bank's base rate to 5%. The move defied market expectations, which had priced in around a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The MPC said that the high number of fixed-rate mortgages means that the full impact of the increase in the Bank Rate so far "will not be felt for some time."
Persons: BOE, Hollie Adams, Sterling, , we've, Andrew Bailey, Joseph Little, Little Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, MPC, Bank, HSBC Asset Management Locations: City, City of London
VIEW Bank of England delivers hefty rate hike
  + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Traders scrambled to price in a peak to UK rates of as much 6% and its implications for the risk of recession, and rate-sensitive stocks like banks and homebuilders slid. MONEY MARKETS: UK 2-year gilts dropped sharply, then rose after the decision but were last unchanged at 5.04%. But even if the bank hasn't offered up any new guidance, the rate decision itself is revealing. The UK has the unenviable title of highest core inflation rate in the G7, and by quite some margin. "Having said that, their policy is now more data dependent, the bank had to deliver a rate increase.
Persons: homebuilders, Sterling, gilts, JAMIE NIVEN, JAMES SMITH, hasn’t, hasn't, BoE, SEEMA SHAH, CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, Bailey, PAUL OBERSCHNEIDER, BOE, ” ROBERT JEFFREE, GARY SMITH, EVELYN, Yoruk Organizations: Bank of England, MPC, Traders, CANDRIAM, ING, LONDON, IG GROUP, Treasury, EMEA, Thomson
CNBC Daily Open: The FOMO momentum
  + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
(Photo by I RYU/VCG via Getty Images)This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' streak snappedU.S. stocks fell Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping their six-day winning streak. Tesla's self-driving ambitionsElon Musk said the value of Tesla depends on whether it can crack the code to self-driving vehicles. There are three factors, according to Hartnett, that'll allow stocks to continue their current rally — though he worries it'll be a "big rally before big collapse."
Persons: RYU, Elon Musk, Tesla, Antony Blinken, Qin Gang, Biden, Bull, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, it'll Organizations: Microsoft, Getty, CNBC, Nasdaq, gilts, Amazon, China U.S, Foreign, Qin, Bears, Bank of America Chief Investment Locations: Seattle , Washington, Blinken, China, Beijing, U.S
Morning Bid: The UK consumer is feeling the heat
  + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya RanganathanIt's not just the heatwave. UK consumers are paying through their noses for fish and chips too, and Friday brings the next quarterly survey of their views on inflation and rates. As Britain contends with one of the highest inflation rates among major advanced economies, the BOE seems set to hike rates a lot more. The stock has soared 17% this year, but pared some gains as grocers across Europe cap some prices. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks in Oslo, NorwayEarnings/updates: Tesco (TSCO.L)Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan It's, BOE, Bullard, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Tesco, Asda, June University of Michigan, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: Vidya, gilts, Europe, Brussels, Italy, Oslo, Norway
Take Five: Keep calm and raise rates
  + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
June 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is facing a stormy gilts market while Turkey's new governor is expected to ramp up rates sharply at central bank meetings in the week to come. Markets show traders are placing an almost one-in-five chance the BoE will raise rates by half a point next week, up from near zero at the start of June. Reuters Graphics2/ECONOMIC CHECK UPA raft of decidedly hawkish noises from big central banks - including the Fed - has once again raised questions about how much central bank tightening is accelerating a global slowdown. U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month, as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates. May's blockbuster employment report could also provide more leeway for the RBA to tighten rates further.
Persons: Antony Blinken, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Amanda Cooper, Karin Strohecker, BoE, confab, Philip Lowe, Ajay Banga, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, Investors, Ukraine, Conference, New, Pact, World Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, London, Paris, Tokyo, New York, United States, Europe, Japan, U.S, Australia, China, Dnipro, Ukraine
London-based hedge fund Odey Asset Management will break itself up, it said in a letter to investors Thursday. Its founder Crispin Odey was accused of sexual harassment by 13 women in a Financial Times investigation published last week. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley both cut ties with the asset manager after the allegations broke. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. The firm's founder Crispin Odey was accused of sexual harassment or assault by 13 women in a Financial Times investigation published last week.
Persons: Crispin Odey, Morgan Stanley, , Odey, gilts, Liz Truss's, Liz Truss Organizations: Management, Financial, JPMorgan, Service, Investment, UBS, Authority, European Union – Locations: London, Brexit
The rapid rise in gilt yields has consequences for the wider economy. To some investors, gilts now increasingly look a bargain as 6% BoE interest rates appear unrealistic. Two-year gilt yields have risen by 1.1 percentage points this year, compared with a 0.3 percentage point increase for German two-year yields and 0.2 percentage points for U.S. Treasuries . Raising interest rates to 6% would "succeed in destroying demand" in the wider economy, he said. Ten-year gilt yields now pay an interest rate nearly 2 percentage points higher than the equivalent German government bond .
Persons: BoE, Liz, Britain's, Jim Leaviss, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, gilts, We've, Mike Riddell, Riddell, Moyeen, There's, Islam, Naomi Rovnick, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Labour Party, Bank of England, Bank of, Italy, Reuters Graphics, Allianz Global Investors, U.S, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, Britain, British, gilts
LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Hawkish central banks have sent a resounding "no" to markets betting recession would force rate cuts soon, leaving money managers scrambling for direction as the second half of the year approaches. "Markets have been wrong not only in their interpretation of the data but of the central bank reaction," he added. "Even though inflation is coming down, you are still getting that phase were the central banks think they need to talk hawkishly about this." Canada last week restarted rate hikes, Australia has come off a pause and Norway may have to accelerate hikes next week. BofA now expects two 25 bps interest rate hikes from the Fed this year, JPMorgan sees only one more and Morgan Stanley sees none.
Persons: Jason Simpson, Shorter, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Mark Nash, Nash, Kaspar Hense, Michael Michaelides, Shamik, BoE, they're, Dhar, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Conor Humphries Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, State, Bank of Japan, Treasury, JPMorgan, BlueBay Asset Management, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, Australia, Norway, Shamik Dhar
London CNN —The number of people in work in the United Kingdom has climbed above its pre-pandemic level for the first time, reaching a record high. Employment hit a record 33.1 million between February and April, with increases in both the number of employees and self-employed workers, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. Employment in the United Kingdom has recovered more slowly than in any other major economy since the pandemic, according to the UK Institute for Employment Studies. This is the fastest rise on record, apart from the period when the figures were distorted by the pandemic, Morgan noted. Food inflation remained above 19% — near a 45-year high — hitting poor households the hardest because they spend more of their available income on food.
Persons: Darren Morgan, Morgan, Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, , Ashley Webb, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN, National Statistics, Employment, UK Institute for Employment Studies, Bank of, , Capital Economics, Bank, Ill Locations: United Kingdom, Europe, United States
LONDON — U.K. borrowing costs, as measured by the yield on short-dated government bonds, rose above levels last seen following Britain's market-destabilizing "mini-budget" after labor market data showed rising wage growth on Tuesday. U.K. annual average wage growth excluding bonuses accelerated from 6.7% to 7.2% in the February-April quarter, the fastest rate on record. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 6.9% wage growth for the reported first period since the national hourly minimum wage was increased to £10.42 ($13.1), from £9.50. Real pay, adjusted for inflation, showed pay growth was down by 2% including bonuses, and by 1.3% excluding them. Unemployment was 0.1 percentage points higher because of a decline in the number of "economically inactive" people not in work or looking for work.
Persons: gilts Organizations: Reuters, British Office, National Statistics Locations: London
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