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☆ US consumer spending exits third quarter on strong note; monthly core inflation rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.3%, after edging up 0.1% in August. The so-called core PCE price index rose 3.7% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest gain since May 2021, after increasing 3.8% in August. Stripping out housing, the core PCE price index rose by a mild 0.2%. The super core PCE price index advanced 4.3% year-on-year in September. Policymakers are watching the super core PCE price index to try and gauge their progress in combating inflation.

Persons: Bing Guan, Sal Guatieri, James Knightley, Chris Low, Pooja Sriram, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Commerce Department's, Economic, Reuters, Consumer, ING, FHN, Treasury, Fed, Barclays, Thomson Locations: SoHo, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, New York

The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson

☆ Potential end of biggest bond bear market ever has some investors considering fixed income for the first time
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Bonds are starting to make a lot of sense for investors, Forrest said. Even after pulling back somewhat from those levels, the benchmark yield remains within striking distance of the key 5% threshold. The potential unwinding of what BofA recently called the "greatest bond bear market in history" has more investors trying to lock in higher yields ahead of potential rate cuts next year from the Federal Reserve. 'A lot for us to love bonds' Other investors are building out their bond exposure. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) is off by more than 2% in 2023, but greater than 1% on the week.

Persons: Kim Forrest, she's, Forrest, Bonds, Treasurys, Forrest isn't, Nancy Tengler, She's, —, Tengler, Bryce Doty, Emily Roland, CNBC's, I've, Roland, we've, Lawrence Gillum, Bokeh Capital's Forrest, Sit Investment's Doty, LPL Financial's Gillum, Gillum, Sit's Doty, Doty Organizations: Bokeh Capital Partners, Bank of America, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Laffer, Sit Investment, John Hancock Investment Management, LPL, Bloomberg, Bond, Aggregate Bond, Bond Market, Corporations Locations: U.S, Israel

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street enters final innings of losing month and quarter: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were near flat Wednesday night as investors readied for the final trading days of what's shaping up to be a weak month and quarter. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both added 0.1%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite added 0.02% and 0.2%, respectively, while the Dow finished 0.2% lower. Friday marks the end of what has been a tough trading month and quarter. The S&P 500 is slated to finish the month down 5.2% and the quarter off by about 4%.

Persons: Ross Mayfield, Baird Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Micron Technology, Dow, Treasury, PCE, Nike

Storm clouds are growing over the U.S. economy as the third quarter winds down this week. There is the ongoing strike by United Auto Workers members against the major car manufacturers. There is the rising price of oil with the international benchmark Brent crude now sitting above $93 a barrel. Aiding the economy’s escape from a downturn has been an unusual set of circumstances that include falling inflation, rising wages and some leftover stimulus from the COVID pandemic. “Such a shutdown could leave a visible mark on the economy,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said last week.

Persons: Bob Doll, ” Gregory Daco, ” Daco, ” Wells Organizations: United Auto Workers, Brent, Crossmark Advisors, Federal Reserve, ”, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Here's where the jobs are for August 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Labor Department said Friday that the economy added 187,000 jobs in August even as the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8%. The August jobs report was another sign that the U.S. labor market is cooling off, though some of the sectors that have fueled the post-pandemic rebound remain strong. "Leisure and hospitality still remains well below pre-pandemic levels of employment, and well below pre-pandemic trends in employment. That was driven by a drop of nearly 37,000 positions in trucking, which the Labor Department attributed to a business closure. The sub-category for motion picture and sound recording dropped close to 17,000 jobs, the Labor Department said.

Persons: we're, Andrew Patterson, Patterson, CNBC's Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Labor Department, Vanguard, Hollywood Locations: United States

Employers added 187,000 jobs in August, above expectations and in line with a labor market that is rebalancing back to normal, the Labor Department reported on Friday. Other labor market data released this week showed a gradual softening of demand for workers from employers. And private payroll firm ADP’s monthly jobs survey for August found employers added 177,000 jobs in the month, below expectations. “Clearly, the labor market is softening,” says Tony Welch, chief investment officer at Signature FD. The downshift reverses a period of high growth for the labor market coming out of the pandemic.

Persons: ”, Venkat Balakrishnan, Scott Hamilton, Tony Welch Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Resources, Compensation Consulting Locations: Washington

☆ The freight recession is getting worse as the economy detoxes from the pandemic trucking boom
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Unemployment for truck drivers could move higher as larger carriers, like Yellow, feel more pain. The freight recession may also signal a "detox" from the artificial demand spikes and gross margins seen in the pandemic. Retail demand for trucking, too, trended downward in July after a brief uptick early in the month. "This further supports the idea that the freight recession will remain through the rest of 2023." To be sure, much of the freight recession may actually point to a reversion to pre-pandemic trends after years of elevated demand for e-commerce.

Organizations: Motive, Service, Louis Locations: Wall, Silicon, COVID

Sterling traded higher after recovering knee-jerk losses following the Bank of England's decision to downshift to a quarter point rate hike on Thursday. The U.S. dollar index , which gauges the currency against a basket of six counterparts, edged 0.06% lower to 102.39 in Asia. On Thursday, it had pushed to the highest since July 7 at 102.84 at one point, but lost steam later in the day with the monthly nonfarm payrolls report looming on Friday. The dollar slipped slightly to 142.40 yen , as long-term Treasury yields - which the currency pair tends to track closely - retreated from Thursday's nearly nine-month high at 4.198% in Tokyo trading. At the same time, "unless or until what's been happening with Treasury yields reverses, there's no meaningful prospect of dollar-yen coming down here, unless we see a very dramatic deterioration in risk sentiment," he added.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Kristina Clifton, BoE, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Kevin Buckland, Brigid Riley, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, of, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Thursday's, Tokyo, U.S

U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Sterling traded slightly higher after recovering knee-jerk losses following the Bank of England's decision to downshift to a quarter point rate hike on Thursday. Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar strengthened amid a rebound in Chinese stocks and U.S. equity futures. The U.S. dollar index , which gauges the currency against a basket of six counterparts, edged 0.07% lower to 102.38 in early Asia. However, the dollar edged higher to 142.64 yen , aided by the rise in long-term Treasury yields to a nearly nine-month high at 4.198% overnight.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, BoE, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Hong, Kevin Buckland, Brigid Riley, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, of, U.S, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: Asia, Sterling, U.S, China

☆ Dollar struggles before payrolls test, Aussie rebounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Banknotes of various currencies: the Japanese Yen, the Australian dollar, the Swedish crown, and the US American dollar on a table in Hamburg, Germany, 19 February 2016. Sterling traded slightly higher after recovering knee-jerk losses following the Bank of England's decision to downshift to a quarter point rate hike on Thursday. Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar strengthened amid a rebound in Chinese stocks and U.S. equity futures. The U.S. dollar index , which gauges the currency against a basket of six counterparts, edged 0.07% lower to 102.38 in early Asia. However, the dollar edged higher to 142.64 yen , aided by the rise in long-term Treasury yields to a nearly nine-month high at 4.198% overnight.

Persons: Sterling, BoE, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Hong Organizations: US, Bank of, of, U.S, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Nasdaq Locations: Swedish, Hamburg, Germany, Asia, Sterling, U.S, China

☆ The number of small firms raising prices fell to the lowest level since March 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —The number of small businesses saying they raised their prices fell in June to its lowest level since March 2021, according to a survey released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The share of respondents who reported higher prices dropped by three points last month to 29%, “still a very inflationary level but trending down,” the report showed. “Inflation and labor shortages continue to be great challenges for small businesses,” said the NFIB’s chief economist Bill Dunkelberg in a release. The current tight labor market has been keeping pressure on employers to raise prices to protect their margins — a dynamic that Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed in recent remarks. The impact of improving supply chainsThe economy has slowed from its red-hot pace after rebounding from the pandemic, but some dynamics that prompted businesses to raise prices have been slowly unwinding.

Persons: “, Kieran Clancy, ”, Bill Dunkelberg, Jerome Powell, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Federal Reserve, Fed, Research, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, San

☆ Inflation blame game: UK economic woes set government and central bank on a collision course
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Sunak has reiterated his "total support" for the Bank of England and under fire Governor Andrew Bailey. Meanwhile, economic growth has all but stagnated and public debt has surpassed 100% of gross domestic product for the first time since March 1961. "What is perhaps surprising is that the energy shock in the U.K. was larger than in most of mainland Europe." In a recent CNBC-moderated panel at a monetary policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, Bailey noted that the U.K. labor force is unique in remaining below its pre-Covid levels. Thanos Papasavvas, founder of ABP Invest, also alluded to the unique susceptibility of the U.K. to high inflation, but said the Bank of England should have been alive to this far earlier.

Persons: Sunak, Andrew Bailey, STEFAN ROUSSEAU, Rishi Sunak, Shaan Raithatha, CNBC's, We've, they've, Raithatha, we've, Richard Flax, Panmure Gordon, Simon French, Bailey, it's, Brexit, Catherine Mann, It's, Panmure Gordon's, French, Thanos Papasavvas Organizations: Bank of England, Getty, Sunak's Conservative, The Bank of, Vanguard, CPI, CNBC, Bank, Monetary, Committee, Panmure, ABP Invest Locations: The Bank of England, U.S, Ukraine, Europe, Moscow, Sintra , Portugal, U.K, British

☆ Toyota's making an EV with a manual transmission
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Peter Valdes-Dapena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —For those who find electric cars a bit boring, Toyota engineers are working on a realistic-feeling fake manual transmission as a possible feature. To be clear, a manual transmission on an electric car would serve absolutely no purpose. Toyota’s virtual manual transmission includes programming that will allow drivers to realistically experience using it badly, up to a point. If the driver doesn’t “give it enough gas” or selects the wrong gear the car will shake and buck, just like a gas-powered manual transmission car would. If the drivers don’t feel like using the fake manual transmission, they don’t have to.

Persons: holdouts, aren’t, doesn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Toyota, CNN Locations: New York, United States, Europe

"We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. NOT FED DEPENDENTShe also dismissed the notion that the ECB would have to pause if its U.S. counterpart did so, saying the ECB was "not Fed-dependent". The German 10-year yield , the euro zone benchmark, fell as much as 7 basis points to a one-month low of 2.18%. "In a nod to the hawks, the ECB hinted at 'future decisions' in the plural," Holger Schmieding at Berenberg said. Firms in the services sector especially have complained of labour shortages, suggesting that more wage pressures could come this summer.

☆ European Central Bank set to slow rate hikes as financial conditions tighten rapidly
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank is expected to lift its benchmark rate by a smaller step of 25 basis points Thursday, as core inflation declines and its own survey data points to much tighter financial conditions in the region. The ECB has kept interest at zero, and below, for years, and has launched bond-buying program like the APP (Asset Purchase Program) and PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) in an effort to simulate lending. On the other hand, PEPP was a more flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic. "It's a positive sign that core inflation has fallen for the first time in a long time. In addition, the ECB's bank lending survey pointed to an exceptionally large drop in credit demand amid tighter lending criteria, adding to the case for a smaller rate hike.

A 25 basis point move, a slowdown after three straight 50 basis point hikes, appears the most likely outcome, although the bigger increase is still a possibility at what is almost certainly not the end of a historic tightening cycle. Markets see an 80% chance of a 25 basis point move while the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters were also betting on the smaller hike. Supporting a possible ECB downshift, the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signalled it may pause further increases. At 3%, the ECB's deposit rate is already restricting economic activity, and underlying inflation has also stopped rising - at least for the time being. The ECB will announce its policy decision at 1215 GMT and Lagarde will hold a press conference at 1245 GMT.

☆ Consumers are ‘retrenching.’ What that means for recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But for consumers, the lengthy spell in the crossfire of persistently high prices and rising interest rates has taken its toll. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in March, marking the fourth time in five months that expenditures held steady or declined. “Further deterioration in the job market — the last remaining leg propping up the consumer — is bound to accelerate the downshift in consumer spending in the coming months. Private label growth is one of six indicators that Allison tracks to determine a consumer recession. “If you ask the economists, ‘Are we in a recession?’ they’re going to say ‘No, we’re not in a recession,’” he said.

That's a good reason to pause after one more rate increase, he said, to study how the economy and inflation evolve, and try to limit the damage to growth and jobs. 'HAD TO DOWNSHIFT'The Atlanta Fed chief spoke in detail about how the recent turmoil in banking markets buffeted his monetary policy views. At first, high inflation made him open to a half-percentage-point increase at the March 21-22 Fed meeting. Indeed, Bostic sketched out why he still believes the inflation battle can be won without a recession or even much of a rise in the unemployment rate. People and businesses "are sitting in a financial condition that is abnormal, and abnormal in a way that would drive excess consumption," Bostic said.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Tom Michaud, CEO of KBW
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Tom Michaud, CEO of KBWTom Michaud, CEO of KBW, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss net interest income, downshift in banking revenue growth, and the duration of Fed policy.

☆ Net interest income will be lower by the end of 2023, says KBW's Tom Michaud
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNet interest income will be lower by the end of 2023, says KBW's Tom MichaudTom Michaud, CEO of KBW, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss net interest income, downshift in banking revenue growth, and the duration of Fed policy.

☆ The stock market rally is over as commercial real estate risks begin to compound, JPMorgan's chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.

☆ Jeremy Siegel says the banking crisis has made him more optimistic about the US economy next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Jeremy Siegel said the banking crisis has made him more optimistic for the US economy next year. "A natural downshift in how tight policy will become from this is one of silver linings from this current banking crisis," he said. "So, a natural downshift in how tight policy will become from this is one of silver linings from this current banking crisis." But Siegel suggests the fallout from the banking mayhem will push the Fed to ease up on rate increases. The banking turmoil is doing some of the US central bank's job for it by tightening financial conditions, according to several analysts.

☆ Sell any bounce in the banks, warns BCA Research
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

With unprecedented volatility in the market this week, thanks to the recent U.S. bank closures and fear of contagion spreading across Europe, the BCA Research team is doubtful banks can stay profitable in the foreseeable future. The KBW Regional Banking Index is higher by just 0.2% Thursday. There also could be an opportunity for investors to use potential bounces to underweight the industry, she added. KBWR 1D mountain KBWR Regional Bank index "We believe that this remains the most prudent course of action, selling banking exposure into a potential bounce," she wrote. "To capture the best exit point, we are putting banks on a downgrade watch from current neutral position."

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Friday: Bank fallout, jobs sweet spot
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

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