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☆ J.P.Morgan expects no further Fed interest rate hikes this cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A view of the exterior of the JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York City May 20, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 13 (Reuters) - J.P.Morgan Asset Management said on Wednesday it expects no further interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve in this cycle, after crucial inflation data appeared to remain on its downward path. "Despite still rising oil prices in early September, we expect the impact of oil price spikes on CPI to be limited," J.P.Morgan's Chief Global Strategist David Kelly said in a note. "We still believe that, barring some further shock, year-over-year headline consumption deflator inflation will be below the Fed's 2% target by the fourth quarter of 2024." Reporting by Reshma Rockie George in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Morgan Chase, Mike Segar, David Kelly, Reshma Rockie, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: Co, New York City, REUTERS, J.P.Morgan, Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Reshma Rockie George, Bengaluru

☆ The damage of the economy's 'temporary burst of inflation' could stick around for years to come, says Paul Krugman
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

However, economist Paul Krugman argues inflation created lasting psychological and political damage. Instead, inflation, which now sits around 3.2% as of July, has had lasting psychological and political damage, Krugman argues. But with a strong labor market and unemployment levels remaining at around 3.8%, there's little argument that the economy is undergoing what Krugman calls "remarkable progress." According to the personal consumption expenditure deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, inflation fell below 3% for the last three months, well below last year's rate. The drastically high levels of unemployment many economists predicted two years ago are nowhere to be seen, as unemployment levels matched pre-Covid levels within three years — in comparison to over a decade following the 2008 recession.

Persons: Paul Krugman, Krugman, Goldman Sachs, there's, Biden, It's, Joe Biden's Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Quinnipiac University, Democrats, Trump, US, Biden Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russian, Ukraine

According to the median forecast (INGDPQ=ECI) in a Reuters poll of economists, India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.7% in the past quarter, up from 6.1% growth in the previous quarter and its fastest expansion since April-June 2022. Reuters GraphicsStrong growth in India's services sector, which makes up more than half of its economic output, has helped Asia's third-largest economy buck the global slowdown that has left many major economies, including China, stuttering. S&P Global India services Purchasing Managers' Index (INPMIS=ECI) has remained firmly above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for nearly two years, the longest stretch since August 2011. To support growth, Indian government has been front-loading its annual spending on infrastructure. Additionally, slowing global growth and exports and a comparison with higher growth rates a year ago will also weigh on growth in quarters ahead.

Persons: Manoj Kumar, Suvodeep Rakshit, Kaushik Das, Rahul Bajoria, Aftab Ahmed, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, DELHI, P Global, Deutsche Bank's, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Faridabad, New Delhi, India, China, P Global India

☆ Here's why stocks are still vulnerable in September
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The bad news is, stocks still aren't cheap, rates still seem like they want to push higher, and China is definitely weaker. Stocks are vulnerable in September: The 'pain trade' is down After that, it's time to repair some damage to the markets. Here's the good news: even though stocks have been straight down most of this month, 5% off the highs is a pretty garden variety correction. Nvidia and AI stocks: how much more do you want? I don't know if that is true, but it sure looks like much of the demand for AI stocks has been pulled forward.

Persons: Jerome Powell's Jackson, Powell, Stocks, there's, Banks, Russell, Susan Collins, Patrick Harker, Joachim Nagel, Thursday's, I'm, Chris Harvey, it's, Jackson Organizations: Federal, deflator, Regional Bank ETF, Energy, Boston, Financial Times, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, ECB, Nvidia, Microsoft, Cisco, Intelligence, Technology, IBM Locations: China, Wells Fargo, Jackson

☆ Stocks are heading for a down August as market kicks off September with jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Regardless, the major averages are set to close a losing month as higher yields and Fitch downgrades weighed on equities this month. "Further cooling in the labor market and the services sector," said Brian Ellis, portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. The labor report will be preceded by the July personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, report on Thursday. In fact, many investors expect that the Federal Reserve is probably done hiking rates here as policymakers await the effects of higher rates on the real economy. Increasingly, investors are looking for opportunities in income as they deal with the possibility of higher rates for longer.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jay Hatfield, Fitch downgrades, nonfarm, Brian Ellis, Powell, Morgan, Ellis, Ben Kirby, that's, Thornburg's Kirby, Campbell Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Capital Management, Dow Jones Industrial, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Federal Reserve, Thornburg Investment Management, Labor, Investors, Dallas Fed, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, ADP, Costco, PCE, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, Dollar, Broadcom, Jobs, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, cautiousness, Smucker, Chicago

☆ BOJ flags broadening price, wage hikes in wake of policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Price hikes have spread rapidly among Japanese companies and sectors that had previously been cautious about passing on costs to households, the central bank said. "We must continue to scrutinise whether price hikes to pass on higher costs could broaden and last longer," the central bank said in a full version of its quarterly outlook report. Unlike the United States and Europe, however, Japan is still seeing inflation driven by higher goods prices rather than wage pressures, the BOJ said. The assessment of the price and wage outlook came after the central bank's decision on Friday to tweak its bond yield control policy and allow long-term interest rates to rise in line with inflation. The outlook for wages and inflation expectations is crucial to how quickly the BOJ could move towards dismantling its controversial bond yield control policy.

Persons: Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, United States, Europe, Japan

LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A reappraisal of the dollar could be the next big "pain trade". Dollar jumps as US 2-year yield premium builds vs G7Net short dollar contracts from CFTCBofA chart on fund managers dollar viewSMILEFor the dollar at least, it starts to look less of a one-way rate bet. For those who favour intra-G7 interest rate differentials for guidance, the picture is not much better for dollar bears. But if "soft landings", disinflation and buoyant markets continue to rule the roost, it may be hard work for the outsize "anti-dollar" bet. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: There's, BoE, What's, it's, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Bank of England, gilts, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan

ORLANDO, Florida, July 20 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks have traded at a discount to global peers for over a decade but have rarely been cheaper than they are now. The fact that U.S. equities are more expensive than Chinese stocks is nothing new. At minimum, investors will need clearer evidence of a turnaround in China's economic and market conditions before moving back into its equities in any great size. The era of double-digit annual GDP growth looks to be over, and challenges are multiple and mounting. Nominal annual GDP growth of 4.8% in the second quarter was lower than real GDP growth of 6.3%, a huge deflation red flag.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, China's, Zhang Zhiwei, Zhang Dandan, Jamie McGeever, Jamie Freed Organizations: Nasdaq, NYSE, Monetary Fund, Citi, Bank of America, Societe Generale, Peking University, Wall, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, China, United States, U.S, Beijing, India

☆ A week of earnings and economic data mean a 'wholesale reshuffling' for stocks, Jim Cramer says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Rohan Goswami | In Rohangoswamicnbc | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should brace for a "wholesale reshuffling of the stock guard" in the next two weeks, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Friday, with a spate of critical earnings and economic data ahead. Investors should be primed for market-moving earnings releases from the likes of Coca-Cola , industrial concern 3M , consumer favorite McDonald's , General Electric , General Motors and far more. Those major names mean investors who want to play their cards right need to "do their homework" ahead of earnings calls, review analyst notes, and, of course, read each respective earnings release, Cramer said. General Electric and Raytheon report earnings Tuesday, followed by Boeing on Wednesday. In terms of economic data, investors should be primed for the Personal Consumption Deflator number, which is the Federal Reserve's "best way to measure inflation," Cramer said.

☆ The banking crisis is doing Fed's work and creating a window for stocks to rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +19 min

Work from home has in part jacked up food prices, and the increase is about 14% above just last year. The only bank that looks like Silicon Valley Bank is First Republic Bank (FRC) because it, too, has suffered huge deposit withdrawals. Nike (NKE)said China orders were good, so did Club stock Starbucks (SBUX). As counterintuitive as it is, the banking row will give the 4.8% fed funds rate a chance to cool consumer spending. This gives stocks a window to advance until we begin earnings season with what will no doubt be a cautious banking sector.

☆ Bank fears will likely lead to even more market volatility in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Market turbulence could reign supreme once again in the week ahead, as investors worry about the potential for more trouble rippling through the banking system. The broader market was initially under pressure Friday as investors became jittery about Deutsche Bank . "The market is saying: 'You, the Fed, do not appreciate the slowdown that is going to hit us,'" Chandler said. "The market is going to do a lot better and it held onto its gains despite all the things that rocked the market. He added that market concern about banks has risen, and there is concern credit tightening will hurt the economy.

☆ ECB confronts a cold reality: companies are cashing in on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

"It's clear that profit expansion has played a larger role in the European inflation story in the last six months or so," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. "The ECB has failed to justify what it's doing in the context of a more profit-focused inflation story." Instead, national accounts and earnings reports from listed companies are being used as proxies to paint the inflation picture. "The main story of the risks going forward is still that there's a looming wage-price spiral which should make the central bank even more aggressive in hiking interest rates." loadingloadingEven inside the ECB, labour representatives demanding higher pay for central bank staff have distanced themselves from what they described as the institution's "anti-worker bias".

☆ Why energy and tech stocks are struggling Friday — listen to the 'Homestretch'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

YOU KNOW, WE'VE HAD A NICE RUN. THAT'S WHY WHEN YOU SEE INTERESTRATES RISE, STOCKS TEND TO FALL. NOW, ON THE OTHER HAND, NOTWORKING, THAT'S GOING TO BEENERGY WITH OIL PRICES FALLINGAND NAT GAS MAKING A NEW LOW. THEN, OF COURSE, TECH ISFALLING, AS WELL, BECAUSE ASINTEREST RATES RISE, TECH STOCKSTEND TO FALL. A LOT OF THESE TECH STOCKS, ALOT OF THEM HAVE EARNINGS --MANY ARE NOT PROFITABLE TODAYAND EARNINGS ARE PROMISED IN THEFUTURE.

☆ Insana says there’s more evidence of slowing inflation and other central banks are noticing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference following the announcement that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a percentage point, at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, U.S., December 14, 2022. That should be good news for the Federal Reserve, as it watches the so-called core PCE, which excludes food and energy, quite closely. Many central banks around the world are beginning to dial back on their own rate hikes of late. That's a pattern emerging among central banks who hiked first and are now more likely to stop raising rates in the relatively near future. Central banks' realization

☆ Earnings could keep the market on edge in week ahead as investors wait for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

I do think that will happen even more in the week ahead as the Fed is in a blackout period. S & P Global PMI data is released for both services and manufacturing Tuesday. "The market continues to think the Fed does not have to administer as much medicine as the Fed tells us they plan to. Earnings, earnings, earnings Stocks were lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 off by 1.8%. "It's a mild earnings recession, but it's an earnings recession.

☆ Negative mood could pervade market next week as investors search for stability before the holidays
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Stocks were battered in the past week, as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve. In the past week, stocks rallied Tuesday after the consumer price index showed a smaller-than-expected increase of 7.1% for November. "There's a lot of housing data next week," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. Ned Davis Research pointed out in a note this week that there has been a recent negative correlation between stocks and bonds, meaning stocks are falling and so are yields. Ned Davis expects the negative correlation to continue for the foreseeable future, and is watching the rolling one-year correlation between the S & P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield.

☆ U.S. third-quarter productivity raised; labor costs still running high
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"While not the timeliest measure, the recent strength in unit labor costs is consistent with the idea that the tight labor market is keeping upward pressure on employment costs," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. Productivity fell at a 1.3% rate from a year ago, instead of the previously reported 1.4% pace. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - increased at a 2.4% rate. Unit labor costs rose at a 5.3% rate from a year ago instead of the previously reported 6.1% pace. Hourly compensation increased at a 3.2% pace, revised down from the 3.8% rate reported last month.

☆ S&P 500 futures fall slightly as investors await Friday's U.S. jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

S&P 500 futures were slightly lower Thursday night as investors looked ahead to the November jobs report. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were lower by 0.15% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.25%. In regular trading, the Dow closed lower by nearly 195 points, while the S&P 500 inched down 0.09%. Investors are focused on the Labor Department's report on non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and hourly wages, due at 8:30 a.m. Economists expect the economy to have added 200,000 jobs in November, according to Dow Jones.

☆ The November jobs report and the Fed matter most to markets in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

November's jobs report is the big event for markets in the week ahead, and it could provide important insight into the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The labor market has cooled only slightly, as other parts of the economy have slowed. But the labor market has been more resilient than expected, challenging the Fed's efforts to tame inflation by slowing economic activity. Besides the jobs report, there is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report Wednesday, as well as the Fed's beige book on economic activity. "Holding above 4,000, as we await the jobs report and those other economic reports would be constructive for one more move before Christmas," he said.

☆ Stocks could continue skittish trading until interest rate move calms down
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The S & P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all down sharply for the week. The S & P was down 4.6%, ending the week at 3,693. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard , St. Louis Fed President James Bullard , San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the speakers. Other global central banks joined the Fed in raising rates, and interest rates around the world rose in tandem. If those levels break, the S & P could touch 3,385 before the selling is over, he said.

☆ Fed meeting ahead will decide whether stocks can stabilize or fall back to bear market lows
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-16 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

FedEx rattled the market after it withdrew its full year earnings guidance Thursday, warning about global softness in its delivery business. After the CPI, markets shifted to price in an even more aggressive Fed rate hiking path. Fed ahead In the week ahead, there are just a few data releases, but they will provide an important window into how the housing market has been coping with the Fed's rate hiking cycle. "Good economic data has been bad for the market, but we haven't seen bad economic data be good for markets. After the CPI release, the futures market for fed funds priced a big jump higher in the terminal rate, or end point where the Fed stops hiking.

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