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☆ Trump's proposed trade war raises the odds of a US recession to 75%, Wall Street strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession risk has jumped to 75% due to the potential for a trade ware under Trump, BCA Research said. Trump's proposed tariffs could lower household income and depress corporate investments. In a Friday note, Berezin increased the probability of an economic recession to 75% from 65%, citing the risk of a new trade war under Trump. On the campaign trail, Trump proposed implementing universal tariffs of 10%-20% on goods imported into the country and a 60% tariff on goods from China. Berezin cited a study from the Budget Lab at Yale that estimates Trump's proposed tariffs could reduce real disposable income for the median US household by $1,900-$7,600.

Persons: Trump's, —, Peter Berezin, Donald Trump's, Berezin, Trump Organizations: Trump, BCA Research, Service, Yale Locations: China

☆ How to profit if rates keep rising, going against the Fed and stock investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. government bond yields have surged too, puzzling many market participants. I am going to stick with the contrarian view and bet on rates continuing to move higher. I'll express that through a bearish bet on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) which tracks bond prices. Various inputs have driven yields higher, creating the opposite outcome for the Fed as they continue to try to land the proverbial plane. Jeffrey Gundlach stated (post Fed meeting) that interest rates could shoot even higher if Republicans end up controlling the House too.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Jeffrey Gundlach, Jerome Powell, TLT Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury Bond ETF, Fed, Treasury, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ The year-end stock rally has begun, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wednesday's massive rally may be just the start of a huge year-end rally. Goldman Sachs tactical specialist Scott Rubner thinks those gains won't stop anytime soon. "The year-end rally starts today and may be higher than investors were expecting," he said Wednesday. Goldman data shows buybacks are already up 15% in 2024 from the last year, at more than $1.05 trillion. "We know we are fighting the tape here, but believe it makes sense to sell the stock."

Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, ChatGPT, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Rubner, Goldman, Baird Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Goldman, JPMorgan Chase

☆ Trump Media Stock Surges on Election Result
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Matthew Goldstein | More About Matthew Goldstein | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In September, Truth Social had 698,000 monthly active users in the United States, compared with 70.4 million for X, according to Similarweb, a data tracking site. Some shareholders — many of them individual investors and supporters of Mr. Trump — took to a Truth Social message board on Wednesday to blast Wall Street traders, accusing it of conspiring to keep a lid on the stock price. Before the trading day began, it appeared Trump Media shares were poised to rocket higher. The stock was the most heavily traded in the hours before the official market open and rose as much as 30 percent in early trading. Swings in Trump Media’s price set off brief trading halts by stock exchanges on Wednesday morning, as they have on other occasions.

Persons: Elon Musk, Trump’s, Trump — Organizations: Social, Mr, Trump, Trump Media Locations: United States

☆ This bank stock is losing momentum. How to profit from a pullback using options
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A recent mean reversion trade I shared on Alibaba demonstrated this well when I pointed out that Chinese stocks were due for a pullback. Today, I'm looking at a potential mean reversion trade on JPMorgan (JPM) . I cover many of these setups in my book Mean Reversion Trading . For instance, with JPM trading around $220, I'd set up the trade by purchasing a 225 strike put and simultaneously selling a 220 strike put. -Nishant Pant Founder: https://tradingextremes.com Author: Mean Reversion Trading Youtube, Twitter: @TheMeanTrader DISCLOSURES: (Nishant currently holds a JPM 225-220 put spread expiring on 11/22.)

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Alibaba, I've, I'm, I'd, Nishant Pant Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, JPMorgan, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Wells Fargo, BlackRock

☆ Wealth manager for the super-rich names 3 stocks to buy before the year-end
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Equity markets rallied this year, as investors remained bullish on Big Tech but also scooped up shares in under-the-radar companies. Year-to-date, shares in Exxon have gained 16.7%, while the stock of Barrick and Microsoft have gained around 10.8% and 15% respectively. Microsoft Teng remains bullish on Microsoft, despite Wrise making a "partial switch" and reducing its weight in the tech giant while increasing allocations to Nvidia in early August. Microsoft and and Nvidia are among the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, which also include Alphabet , Amazon , Apple , Meta Platforms and Tesla . Nike Athletic footwear and apparel label Nike is another stock that Teng likes, despite bearish sentiments in Wall Street.

Persons: Kevin Teng, —, Barrick, Barrick Gold Teng, Microsoft Teng, Teng, OpenAI, AlixPartners, Walt Disney, Mickey Mouse Organizations: Big Tech, CNBC Pro, Wrise Private Singapore, Microsoft, behemoth Exxon Mobil, Barrick Gold, Exxon, Barrick, Exxon Mobil, Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Nike Athletic, Nike, Disney, Marvel Studios, Disney Plus, 4Q, Pixar Animation Studios Locations: Asia, East, Europe, Wall Street

☆ Beaten-up Nextracker provides investors a reason to believe. But timing is key here
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Nextracker lost around 32% of its value in between its August earnings report and Wednesday's close — a frustrating decline. It's too early to act, given the results of next week's contests could move shares of Nextracker and its peers considerably. "We were pleasantly surprised and gratified that this was the best solar earnings we've seen this quarter," Jim Cramer said Thursday. Nextracker Why we own it: Nextracker makes industry-leading tracking technology, which enables large-scale solar panel installations to follow the sun's movement and increase their power generation. Guidance Nextracker reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance for revenue while upping its outlook for a pair of profitability metrics.

Persons: Nextracker, Jim Cramer, We're, Howard Wenger, Chuck Boynton, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Peter Cade Organizations: NXT, Club, Mizuho Securities, CNBC, Stone Locations: Nextracker

☆ A market hedge for those worried neither Trump nor Harris will do anything about the growing fiscal deficit
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

By contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris's tax plan is expected to increase tax revenues by $1.7 trillion over 10 years, but at a cost of negative 2% to long-run GDP and 786,000 jobs. The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania estimates that, including her spending proposals, the primary deficits would increase by $1.2 trillion, and accounting for adverse economic feedback effects, primary deficits increase to $2 trillion. Higher deficits and higher debts, just with different paths to get there. One candidate proposes cutting taxes to improve economic activity but increase deficits, and the other proposes raising taxes and increasing spending by even more and growing deficits. If the deficit keeps increasing faster than our economy grows, so will the debt, inflation, and interest rates.

Persons: We'll, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris's, Harris, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Treasuries Organizations: Tax Foundation, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Medicare, Green New Deal, TLT, Treasury Bond ETF, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: United States, Europe

☆ Never mind the 60/40 portfolio. There may be a case for a 50/30/20 allocation
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The case for a 50/30/20 portfolio is growing as investors seek to diversify into alternatives as a hedge against a stock and bond market that are each flashing cautionary signals. "And so, let me allocate a little bit, because instead of a 60/40, perhaps it's a [50/30/20]," she said, clarifying 50% to stocks, 30% to bonds, and the remaining 20% to alternatives. The case for alternatives The case for alternatives is two-fold. Still, investors say that the the asset class can help hedge against real risks ahead of stocks and bonds. One ETF investing in private equity asset managers is the Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (PSP) .

Persons: Ayako Yoshioka, you've, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Corporates, Yoshioka, Paul Tudor Jones, Mark Malek, it's, —, Jesse Pound Organizations: Investors, Bank of America, Treasury, U.S, State Street, Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, Ares Management, KKR, Co, Carlyle Group, Equity ETF Locations: U.S, Siebert

☆ Reddit just won earnings season with huge pop. What analysts see from here
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Additionally, Reddit guided for fourth-quarter revenue of between $385 million and $400 million, while analysts had estimated an average of $357.9 million. Josey wrote that Reddit's continued user growth and engagement gains have boosted the company — and should continue to do so. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth raised his price target to $110 from $77, while Bank of America analyst Justin Post lifted his target price to $99 from $84. These updated objectives respectively imply that Reddit stock could rise 35% and 21% from its Tuesday close. Shmulik's $85 price target, raised from $65, is just 4% higher than the stock's Tuesday closing price.

Persons: Reddit, LSEG, Ronald Josey, Josey, Reddit's, Morgan Stanley, Doug Anmuth, Justin Post, Brian Nowak's, Bernstein, Mark Shmulik, Shmulik, Jekyll, Hyde, that's Organizations: Citi, Bank of America, JPMorgan Locations: Reddit, Tuesday's

☆ A bearish bet on a stock whose chart is raising some red flags
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Two weeks ago, I had covered a trade on Alibaba using a very popular indicator called the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). Note that a bearish crossover is happening again for ACN indicating a loss in upward momentum. With a bearish outlook on ACN, I’m utilizing a strategy known as a "bear put spread" to potentially profit from a pullback. The trade This involves purchasing a put option with a higher strike price and simultaneously selling a put option with a slightly lower strike, creating a net debit position. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: it's, Nishant Pant Organizations: Accenture, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Using options to trade two cosmetics competitors with a lot on the line this month
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Beauty and Estée Lauder are well-known companies in the beauty and cosmetics industry. Their customers generally have higher disposable incomes, as Estée Lauder is a luxury brand emphasizing premium, high-quality ingredients. Estée Lauder combines a traditional retail model with a growing e-commerce presence. Estee Lauder has fallen roughly 45% over the past seven months. ELF EL YTD mountain Estee Lauder vs. elf Beauty, YTD e.l.f.

Persons: Estée Lauder, Gen X, Nordstrom, Estee Lauder, Trump Organizations: Target, Walmart, Presidential, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S, North America, United States, Asia, Europe, Americas, China, Estee

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes shares 3 signs it's a terrible time to invest in the S&P 500 — and warns stocks are due to underperform Treasurys by 10% over the next 12 y
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman warns of poor S&P 500 returns over the next 12 years. Current expectations have the S&P 500 underperforming Treasurys by 9.9% annually over the next 12 years. But valuations are causing skepticism about future market returns among others on Wall Street, even if not to the same degree. Related storiesEarlier this week, Goldman Sachs forecast that the S&P 500 would average 3% annual returns over the next decade. His Strategic Growth Fund is down about 55% since December 2010 and has fallen 16% in the past 12 months.

Persons: John Hussman, —, you'll, you'd, Hussman, Hussman's, it's, Goldman Sachs, It's Organizations: Treasurys, Service, Hussman Investment Trust

☆ UPS cleared a 'low bar' in Q3, says Barclays' Brandon Oglenski on his downgrade
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUPS cleared a 'low bar' in Q3, says Barclays' Brandon Oglenski on his downgradeBrandon Oglenski, Barclays, joins 'Fast Money' to talk UPS earnings and why he is still bearish on the stock.

Persons: Brandon Oglenski Organizations: Barclays

☆ How to bet against real estate using options as higher rates pressure housing market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As a key benchmark for long-term interest rates, including 30-year fixed mortgage rates, this rise in yields is exerting negative pressure on the real estate sector. With this in mind, I'm looking to capitalize on the continued pressure on real estate as long as yields keep climbing. Below is a 6-month daily chart of the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) , which tracks the performance of U.S. real estate-related equities. The options chain for Nov. 8 shows that there is a 68% chance that the $102 call will expire worthless by expiration date. The trade Given the bearish outlook, I'm utilizing a bear call spread, also known as a call credit spread.

Persons: Nishant Pant Organizations: Treasury, Real, IYR, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S

☆ As gold hits another record high, the pros reveal their outlook for the precious metal
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Spot gold prices have soared above $2,700 an ounce, rallying for the fifth day on Monday to hit another record high of over $2,733 an ounce. But Wider noted the de-correlation of 10-year Treasury real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) and the price of gold. XAU= 5Y mountain Gold John Reade, senior markets strategist at the World Gold Council trade association, warned of volatility ahead, however. Allocating to gold Reade advised investors to always have a position in gold, albeit as a relatively small part of a portfolio. Principal Asset Management's Jablonski, meanwhile, said he has less than 5% of his portfolio allocated to commodities, including gold.

Persons: Michael Widmer, I'm, CNBC's, Widmer, Todd Jablonski, Jablonski, John Reade, Reade, Management's Jablonski, Fred Imbert Organizations: Bank of America, Treasury, CNBC Pro, World Gold Council, CNBC

☆ How investors should navigate the S&P 500 likely trailing bonds and inflation for the next decade, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Goldman Sachs forecasts muted S&P 500 gains, with a 3% annual return over 10 years. Diversification and equal-weighted S&P 500 exposure may offer better long-term returns. The bank's most bearish scenario would see the S&P 500 decline by an annual 1%, while its more positive calls for a gain of 7%. Goldman SachsAdding an exchange-traded fund that tracks the equal-weighted S&P 500 could be one way to go about it. AdvertisementFurthermore, investors should consider a more mixed asset portfolio of stocks and bonds without tilting toward one more than the other.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, David Kostin, Goldman, There's, Christian Mueller Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Treasury

☆ Goldman forecasts just a 3% S&P 500 annual return the next 10 years, down from 13% the last decade
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 returned 13% annually the last 10 years, above the long-term average of 11%, according to Goldman. Goldman's bearish long-term forecast comes just as the S & P 500 has entered the third year of a bull market, garnering a 27% annual total return the last two years. "The current high level of equity valuations is a key reason our 10-year forward return forecast sits at the lower end of the historical distribution," stated the note. The firm said the equal-weight S & P 500 would produce higher returns than the regular benchmark because of the concentration risk. The Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP)F tracks an equally distributed version of the index.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Goldman's Organizations: Nvidia

☆ Here's the trading playbook as data piles up in support of a 'no landing' for the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Odds of a "no landing" scenario for the economy are rising amid continued strong economic data. The "no landing" scenario entails a continued run of hot economic data and growth that boosts markets but also precludes a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. According to Cox, that means that short-term interest rates will drop to around 3% in the no landing scenario, even if long-term rates remain elevated. AdvertisementAfter all, a no landing scenario is the best outcome for the economy, Cox said, and given hot growth, the situation effectively tosses recession fears out the window. This would be just the fourth time in US history that the Fed has cut interest rates without a downturn, he added.

Persons: —, BofA, Reacceleration, Jamie Cox, Cox, They're, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, UBS, Fed, Nvidia, Apple

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks are in a 'mega-bubble' with the S&P 500 ahead of fundamentals by at least 25%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Economist David Rosenberg warns the stock market is in a "mega-bubble." The S&P 500 continues to register new highs and has climbed an incredible 23% so far this year. For investor positioning, here's household equity ownership as a percentage of assets as of the start of this year. Related storiesBy Rosenberg's measure, the S&P 500 is at least 25% higher than where fundamentals suggest it should be. AdvertisementSince then, the S&P 500 has risen to 5,864.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, That's, it's, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve

☆ The under-the-radar bull case for bitcoin that's got nothing to do with the election or the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Bitcoin that's lost either when an investor dies or is simply locked out of their wallet reduces available supply. Estate planning is crucial for bitcoin investors who store the coin on a cold wallet, experts say. Satoshi Nakamoto being deceased would potentially soothe a big fear that's loomed over the bitcoin market for years, which is that the person could sell their estimated 1 million bitcoin. If no one has your private key, the funds will be locked permanently," Wealthica CEO Eric Lemieux told Business Insider. Otherwise, more lost bitcoin could mean even higher prices for the crypto.

Persons: Bitcoin that's, —, Donald Trump, Satoshi Nakamoto, Len Sassaman, Satoshi, Sean Farrell, Farrell, That's, bitcoin, Eric Lemieux, Lemieux Organizations: Service, HBO, Yorker Locations: American, Wales

☆ Why the stock market will drop 7% by mid-November, according to a technical analyst
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market could face a 7% correction by mid-November, says Fundstrat's Mark Newton. AdvertisementThe stock market looks poised for a 7% correction by mid-November, according to technical analyst Mark Newton of Fundstrat. AdvertisementNewton is monitoring the 5,900 level on the S&P 500 as potential resistance for the index. The S&P 500 traded at around 5,850 on Friday. "This market has seemingly 'dodged a bullet' thus far during one of the historically worst periods during most election years.

Persons: Fundstrat's Mark Newton, —, Mark Newton of, Newton, Tom Lee's Organizations: Investor, Service, Equity, Technology, RSI Locations: Newton, Mark Newton of Fundstrat

☆ Watch out. Analysts have been cutting earnings estimates on these stocks reporting next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street has been lowering its third-quarter growth estimates for months now. That's not abnormal, however, as third-quarter growth estimates tend to decline in the preceding months. Nearly 10% of S & P 500 companies have already reported results, with more than 79% beating earnings estimates, according to FactSet. Analysts' estimates for earnings per share have been cut by 80.3% over the past three months and 85% over the past six months. Analysts have cut their earnings per share estimates on Tesla by 24.1% over the past three months and 30.8% over the past six months.

Persons: That's, Morgan Stanley, Joe Laetsch, Laetsch, FactSet, Christopher Dendrinos, Dendrinos, Tesla, Wells Fargo Organizations: CNBC Pro, Valero Energy, Wall Street, Valero, RBC Capital Markets, Tesla Locations: U.S, Wells

☆ What the charts say about whether the S&P 500 can continue higher into year-end
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The S & P 500 continues to make new highs, and volatility continues to decline. First, the S & P 500 has logged just two absolute 1% moves since Sept. 19, which is nearly a month's worth of trading. In fact, 114 S & P 500 stocks made new 52-week highs on Tuesday, which was the first time we've had over 100 since 7/16/24. With the day's opening and close both being higher and lower than the prior session's, this created a bearish engulfing pattern. The bottom line is that the S & P 500 and dozens of its holdings have built up substantial cushions by strongly coming back from the August lows.

Persons: we've Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Investor sentiment starting to enter into frothy territory with so much going well for stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Fully 90% expect a "soft landing," or "no landing" at all (i.e. That's not the case here: the Fed is cutting rates going into, at worst, a soft landing, which is very unusual. The S & P 500 was up 2.0% in September and is higher by 0.9% so far in October. Historically, the S & P tends to rise beginning in the last week of October and through November and December. Goldman Sachs noted that, since 1928, the median S & P 500 return from October 15 to December 31 has been 5.17%.

Persons: That's, Alicia Levine, BNY, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, buybacks, Stocks, there's, AAII, BofA Organizations: America, Trump, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Fed, buybacks, American Association of Locations: U.S, frothy

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