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What do the strikingly different public responses to two recent Supreme Court rulings, one on abortion, the other on affirmative action, suggest about the future prospects for the liberal agenda? Last year’s Dobbs decision — overturning the longstanding precedent set by Roe v. Wade in 1973 — angered both moderate and liberal voters, providing crucial momentum for Democratic candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, as well as in elections earlier this month. Since Dobbs, there have been seven abortion referendums, including in red states like Ohio, Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. In contrast, the Supreme Court decision in June that ended race-based affirmative action in college admissions provoked a more modest outcry, and it played little, if any, role on Election Day 2023. As public interest fades, so too do the headlines and media attention generally.
Persons: Dobbs, Roe, Wade, Organizations: Democratic Locations: Ohio , Kansas , Kentucky, Montana
These young voters faulted Israel’s response to the attacks, 52-32 percent. This wartime shift represents a fundamental break within a liberal coalition that has long powered the Democratic Party. Clearly, the most left-leaning young adults have the lowest rating of Israel. The Arab American Institute commissioned John Zogby Strategies to conduct a survey of 500 Arab Americans between Oct. 23 and Oct. 27. In this poll, 32 percent of Arab Americans identified as Republican as opposed to just 23 percent who identified as Democrats.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Gallup, Jennifer Medina, Lisa Lerer, Benjamin Netanyahu, Bruce Cain, nonwhite, Cain, Siena, Hillary, , Norman Ornstein, ” Ornstein, Ornstein, Liz Skalka, Daniel Marans, Akbar Shahid Ahmed, , Robbie Gramer, ” Gramer, ’ Gramer, ” Amy Mackinnon, Gramer, Antony Blinken, ” Yossi Hasson, Maya Tamir, Kea, Brahms, J, Christopher Cohrs, Eran Halperin, Niloufar Zebarjadi, Eliyahu Adler, Annika Kluge, Mikko Sams, Jonathan Levy, Zebarjadi, Jeremy Konyndyk, Harris, ” Laura Royden, Eitan Hersh, ” “, Hersh, Israel favorability, Young, John Zogby, Zogby, Farah Pandith, Pandith, , Trump, Julie Wronski, Wronski, Stephen Ansolabehere Organizations: Quinnipiac University Poll, Biden, Democratic, West Bank, Democratic Party, Stanford, American Enterprise Institute, Democratic National Committee, State Department, U.S, USAID, United States Agency for International Development, Foreign, Liberals, Aalto University, USAID’s, U.S . Foreign, Politico, U.S ., Harvard, , Israel, Young American Left, Tufts, Republicans, U.S.A, , Arab American Institute, American, Council, Foreign Relations, University of Mississippi Locations: Israel, Gaza, Medina, United States, Washington, Palestinian, , Finland, Russia, Ukraine, U.S, Palestine, Michigan, America
Mike Johnson is the first person to become speaker of the House who can be fairly described as a Christian nationalist, a major development in America history in and of itself. Equally important, however, his ascension reflects the strength of white evangelical voters in the House Republican caucus, voters who are determined to use the power of government to roll back the civil rights, women’s rights and sexual revolutions. “If anything, it shows us that white evangelicals still have a very strong hold on the modern Republican Party. In the 1970s, mainline Protestants dominated at 46 percent, compared with evangelical Protestants at 24 percent and Catholics at 19 percent. By the decade of the 2010s, evangelical Protestants were a commanding 38 percent of Republicans, mainline Protestants had fallen to 17 percent and Catholics had grown to 25 percent.
Persons: Mike Johnson, “ Johnson, ” Ryan Burge, , ” Burge Organizations: Republican, Eastern Illinois University, American Baptist Church, Republican Party Locations: America, United States
The Jordan campaign for speaker may turn into a liability for Republican members in districts won by Biden in 2020. Jim Jordan is a radical election denier who does not represent the values of this district and Tom Kean Jr. should be ashamed of his vote. I asked Michael Olson, a political scientist at Washington University in St. Louis, about the possible costs of a Jordan vote for these 12 Republicans in Democratic-leaning seats. Republican respondents, however, are more approving of a conservative Republican representative and less approving of a representative who voted to impeach Trump. As a result, I doubt this one vote will be as consequential as something like voting to impeach Trump.”
Persons: Jordan, Fitzpatrick, Ashley Ehasz, Brian Fitzpatrick, Sue Altman, Kean, Tom Kean Jr, , Jim Jordan, Michael Olson, Louis, Olson, Geoffrey Sheagley, Logan Dancey, John Henderson, Donald Trump, Henderson, Trump, Dancey, isn’t, Darcey, “ Jordan, Organizations: Biden, Democratic, New, Families Alliance, Republican Party, Washington University, Republicans, Republican, Wesleyan, Democrat, Trump Locations: New Jersey, St, Dancey
As the parties have grown racially, religiously, and socially distant from one another, a new kind of social discord has been growing. The increasing political divide has allowed political, public, electoral, and national norms to be broken with little to no consequence. Institutions that empower partisan minorities can become instruments of minority rule. And they are especially dangerous when they are in the hands of extremist or antidemocratic partisan minorities. Its political system spreads power out very broadly, in ways that give many individual players the power to stop things.
Persons: Lilliana Mason, Johns Hopkins, Trump, , Steven Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt, “ Vetocracy, ” Francis Fukuyama, Stanford’s, Fukuyama, ” Fukuyama Organizations: American, Harvard, Constitution, Global, Politics Today, Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, House Republicans Locations: America, U.S
I recently sent out a list of questions about the 2024 elections to political operatives, pollsters and political scientists. How damaging would a government shutdown be to Donald Trump and the Republican Party? Will the cultural left wing of the Democratic Party undermine the party’s prospects? How significant will Black and Hispanic shifts to the Republican Party be and where will these shifts have the potential to determine the outcome? Robert M. Stein, a political scientist at Rice, responded to my question about MAGA turnout by email: “Turnout among MAGA supporters may be less important than how many MAGA voters there are in the 2024 election and in which states they are.”
Persons: Donald Trump, Will, MAGA, Biden, Will Kamala Harris’s, hasn’t Biden, Democratic Party “, , Robert M, Stein, Rice Organizations: Republican Party, Democratic Party, Biden, MAGA Locations: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona , Michigan, Wisconsin
In this context, many partisan elites have political incentives to take, or at least refrain from pushing back on, relatively extreme partisan positions. Those I queried repeatedly cited the role of the two-party winner-take-all system in exacerbating polarization in this country. Iyengar cited two other “big differences between the U.S. and the other industrialized democracies”:The U.S. is the outlier, in the sense that we are the one case without a major public broadcaster. In other words, our democracy has always been contested and political polarization has often been intense. Foner shares the view that the two-party system fosters polarization, noting that “it may even be that the political system produces polarization, even though on many issues Americans may not be as divided as appears on the surface.”
Persons: , Malka, Shanto Iyengar, Iyengar, , ” Eric Foner, , Foner Organizations: Stanford, Coalition, U.S Locations: United States, Covid, U.S, , Norway, Sweden, Germany, Japan, Columbia
Opinion | A Hidden Reason Cities Fall Apart
  + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
And this has been a self-perpetuating process in which the fortunate metros have gained the most while many places are left behind. This used to happen all the time in Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis, the Twin Cities, etc.”These locally based firms. Atkinson continued, “played an important role of helping the various municipalities in a region work more closely together. The only way to grow their banks or electric utilities was to grow the community where they were based. Their job is to sit on local boards and dabble in community relations, but they don’t really call the shots anymore.
Persons: Mark Muro, Muro, Robert D, Atkinson, Louis, , ” Aaron M, Renn, Frank A Organizations: Brookings, , metros, Information Technology, Innovation Foundation, Twin, American, “ Civic, Baltimore News American, Maryland Locations: Detroit , Cleveland, St, Twin Cities, Banks, Dallas
One of the underlying issues in the free speech debate is the unequal distribution of power. Frymer suggested that ultimatelyWe can’t consider free speech without at least some understanding of power. We can’t assume in all contexts that the truth will ever come out; unregulated speech does not mean free speech. The framing in the current debate over free speech and the First Amendment, Post contends, is dangerously off-kilter. Post makes the case that there is “a widespread tendency to conceptualize the problem as one of free speech.
Persons: Steven Pinker, Biden, , , Paul Frymer, Frymer, I’m, Robert C, Post Organizations: Harvard, Freedom, University, Republicans, Washington Post, Trump, Yale Locations: , Princeton
Opinion | Small Donors Are a Big Problem
  + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
One of the most important developments driving political polarization over the past two decades is the growth in small-dollar contributions. Increasing the share of campaign pledges from modest donors has long been a goal of campaign-finance reformers, but it turns out that small donors hold far more ideologically extreme views than those of the average voter. In their 2022 paper, “Small Campaign Donors,” four economists, Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte and Vincent Pons, document the striking increase in low dollar ($200 or less), campaign contributions in recent years. Bouton and his colleagues found that the total number of individuals grew from 5.2 million in 2006 to 195.0 million in 2020. Over the same period, the average size of contributions fell from $292.10 to $59.70.
Persons: Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte, Vincent Pons, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Bouton Organizations: White
DeSantis saying he’s going to start “slitting throats” reminded me of Romney’s “severely conservative.” While DeSantis’s is a dangerous escalation of violent imagery, they both sound bizarre and unnatural. At a more fundamental level, Bateman wrote:It’s not at all clear that what most Republican voters (rather than donors) want is a mainstream and party credentialed version of Trump. The problem with this approach, Ayres continued, is that “the Always Trump voters are ‘Always Trump’ for a reason — they are not going to settle for the second-best Trump if they can get the real thing.”Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster, wrote:There is no room for DeSantis or anyone else to outflank Trump on the right, where Trump has his most loyal base. Candidates can argue that Trump is insufficiently conservative on some issues, but that it not the point for Trump loyalists. Candidates can try to echo the ugliness of Trump’s rhetoric, but that too misses what really draws these voters to Trump.
Persons: Trump, Romney’s “, Bateman, It’s, Trump’s, ” David O, Sears, , Archie Bunker, Whit Ayres, Republican pollster, DeSantis, RFK Jr, Ayres, Geoff Garin, MAGA, Frances Lee, ” Lee, Organizations: Yale, Harvard, Trump, Republican, Derby, Wimbledon, NPR, Ivy League, for Disease Control, Democratic, Trump loyalists, Republicans Locations: Ukraine, Princeton
Another example: For a while it looked like the Republican Party could appeal to social conservatives but maintain the economic policy supported by business elites. The Republicans are making the argument that their cultural and economic values are consistent with working class Americans, and that their positions transcend racial categories. I asked Teixeira whether the changing Democratic Party has reached a point of no return on this front, and he emailed back:A good and big question. In the short run it looks very difficult for them to shed much of their cultural radicalism and generally make the party more attractive to normal working class voters. That is, if enough of the party becomes convinced their coalition is too narrow and therefore some compromises and different approaches are necessary.
Persons: White, Eitan Hersh, Sarang Shah, Hersh, , they’d, ” Hersh, Ruy Teixeira, , ” Teixeira, Teixeira, Michael Podhorzer, Organizations: United, Tufts, Berkeley, American, Democratic, Republican, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Democrats, Republicans, Trump, American Enterprise Institute, AFL Locations: U.S, United States, , America, nonwhite
Yet he is utterly dominating his Republican rivals in the polls, and he is tied with Joe Biden in the general election surveys. Trump’s poll numbers are stronger against Biden now than at any time in 2020. But if you are a person of color, a woman who values gender equality or an L.G.B.T. I doubt it.”In this story we anti-Trumpers are the good guys, the forces of progress and enlightenment. I ask you to try on a vantage point in which we anti-Trumpers are not the eternal good guys.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, What’s, Marc Hetherington, Thomas B, Edsall, it’s Organizations: Republican, Biden, University of North, Republicans, Trump Locations: University of North Carolina
But, Hasen argued:“Trump did not just state the false claims; he allegedly used the false claims to engage in a conspiracy to steal the election. There is no First Amendment right to use speech to subvert an election, any more than there is a First Amendment right to use speech to bribe, threaten, or intimidate.”Francesca Procaccini, a law professor at Vanderbilt, shares the view that in the contemporary political environment, there needs to be more regulation of speech. In an email, she wrote:The left is split on how to respond to misinformation precisely because the left is historically committed to free speech and also to uplifting marginalized voices. Now, many on the left have increasingly come to understand that speech itself (whether false speech or hate speech) is also detrimental to marginalized communities. It concluded that “states and public-sector unions may no longer extract agency fees (partial union dues) from nonconsenting employees.”
Persons: Hasen, Trump Will, ” Hasen, Jack Smith, Donald Trump, Trump, “ Trump, ” Francesca Procaccini, ” Procaccini, , , ” Catherine MacKinnon, ” MacKinnon, misogynists, MacKinnon, Elena Kagan Organizations: , Trump, Vanderbilt, Citizens, University of Michigan, . State, Municipal Employees Locations: “ U.S, Janus, ., County
Competing partisan views on how we see men and masculinity are emerging as key factors in the run-up to the 2024 election. “No menace to this nation is greater than the collapse of American manhood,” he declares, placing full blame “on the American left. As for jobs, fewer and fewer young men have them. In advanced economies today, women are propelling themselves through life. Reeves and Hawley have quite dissimilar causal explanations for this phenomena — as do so many Republicans and Democrats.
Persons: Josh Hawley’s, Richard Reeves’s, Hawley, , , ” Hawley, Reeves, ” Reeves, Let’s, Ipsos Organizations: Boys, Peace Corps, Democrats, Politico
Divisions between Democrats and Republicans have expanded far beyond the traditional fault lines based on race, education, gender, the urban-rural divide and economic ideology. The Democrats no longer apologize for challenging traditional hierarchies and established pathways. Republicans see a world changing around them uncomfortably fast and they want it to slow down, maybe even take a step backward. It’s just something we are going to have to live with until a new set of issues rises to replace this set. Toward the end of the 20th century, Republicans moved rightward at a faster pace than Democrats moved leftward.
Persons: Marc Hetherington, Hetherington, revel Organizations: Republicans, University of North, Democrats, rightward, Republican Locations: University of North Carolina, America, leftward
We also show that formerly covered states were largely indistinguishable from formerly uncovered states in terms of retrogression. If anything, states unaffected by Shelby County retrogressed marginally more than did states impacted by the ruling. If changes in election laws, especially those affecting voter turnout, have little influence on partisan outcomes, why should the average citizen care about these developments? Conversely, even if the laws have only marginal influence on election outcomes, couldn’t that marginal difference become crucial in very close elections? We might think some changes to election laws are simply the right thing to do based on our ethical values.
Persons: Nicholas Stephanopolous, Eric McGhee, Christopher Warshaw, , Richard Hasen, Hersh, ” Marc Elias, Elias, Grimmer, Organizations: Harvard Law School, Public, Institute of California, George Washington University, State Senate, State House, Elias Law Group, Democratic, Republican Locations: County, Arizona, U.C.L.A, Brnovich
Opinion | The Biden-Trump Rematch Is Already Here
  + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
Belief in the lie may have buoyed some of Trump supporters’ self-esteem. If we have a good election year overall, we have a very good chance at Democrats holding the Senate. There are, needless to say, a host of uncertainties. As a general rule, the higher these issues rank in voters’ priorities, the better Republicans do. In that respect, the success of conservatives in barring the use of race in college admissions has taken a Republican issue off the table.
Persons: Truex, Arceneaux, Mike Lux, Win, , Gore Organizations: Trump, , Republicans, Truex, Republican, Democratic Party, Electoral College, Democratic, Senate, Democrats Locations: Bush
Together, we are determined to defend and preserve government of the people, by the people and for the people. In conclusion, they argue,It is important to recognize that Trump was no puppet master and that his followers were far more than puppets. Instead, he was the unifier, activator, and enabler of his followers during the dark events of Jan. 6, 2021. The absence of a point at which Trump instructed his supporters to assault Capitol Hill makes the assault on Capitol Hill no less his responsibility. It remains unknown whether Trump will be charged in connection with his refusal to abide by all of the legal requirements of democratic electoral competition.
Persons: Trump, “ Trump, Haslam, , Donald Trump’s exhortations, , , ” Charles Stewart III, denialists, Stewart, Donald Trump Organizations: Capitol, America, Trump, United States Capitol, CNN, Republican, White House, Democratic Party Locations: Washington
And Milligan weakens Florida’s defense for eliminating a Black opportunity district around Jacksonville, which hinges on race-conscious districting being unconstitutional. Put it all together and at least 2-3, and quite possibly more, congressional districts are likely to change hands because of Milligan. Lower courts have found already that the current maps in those states likely, or do, violate Sec. In Texas, it’s possible one or more new Hispanic VRA districts will have to be created. In that context, Roberts continued, “we are not persuaded by Alabama’s arguments that section 2 as interpreted in Gingles exceeds the remedial authority of Congress.”
Persons: Milligan, Wasserman, Cook, , “ Lean, Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Stephanopoulos, Richard Pildes, Pildes, John Roberts’s, Roberts Organizations: Democratic, Harvard, Republican Locations: Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina, Washington, It’s, Georgia, Texas, Jacksonville, N.Y.U, Alabama , Louisiana, Gingles
In 1990, 33.9 percent of Black Americans in what are known as metropolitan statistical areas lived in the suburbs. The suburbs are arguably at the frontline of America’s ‘diversity explosion,’ where economic integration and cultural assimilation occur or are contested. In this context, Lichter, Thiede and Brooks contend thatThe idea of “melting-pot suburbs,” which signals residential integration, hardly seems apt. To be sure, the largest declines in Black-white segregation over the past decade were found in the suburbs. In fact, Black exposure to Whites in the suburbs seems to have declined, at least in those parts of the suburbs where most of the metro Black population lives.
Persons: Mast, Brooks, Organizations: Whites, Blacks, Locations: Black, , Lichter,
Opinion | The Politics of Delusion Have Taken Hold
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
He concluded:As the old sociological adage goes, situations believed to be real can become real in their consequences. In that sense people are, in fact, operating under a delusion that everyday opposing partisans are willing to undermine democracy. Partisans, Braley continued, “overestimate how much members of the other party dislike and dehumanize them. When Democrats see this election denial, they naturally come to think that Republicans are trying to undermine democracy by not accepting election results. The first “is the need for politicians to mobilize citizens with busy lives and not much of an incentive to participate in politics.
Persons: Republicans don’t, , Lilliana Mason, Johns Hopkins, , Mason, Alia Braley, , Braley, Donald Trump’s, Gabriel Lenz —, Braley’s, , Lenz Organizations: Republicans, , University of California, Democratic Locations: Berkeley
Opinion | Death and the City
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +5 min
“Some have hypothesized that the rise in homicide rates is specifically a result of the June 2020 protests,” Chalfin and MacDonald wrote, but “theories about the role of the protests must contend with several challenges. The data also pinpoint the timing of the spikes to late May 2020, which corresponds with the death of George Floyd while in police custody in Minneapolis and subsequent anti-police protests — protests that likely led to declines in law enforcement. Although unemployment caused by Covid surged in April, there was little if any increase in murders at that time. That is the challenge that every city should be grappling with. Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
At the heart of the American ethos is the contested idea of freedom. “The question we’re facing,” Biden told viewers, “is whether in the years ahead, we will have more freedom or less freedom. More rights or fewer,” adding:Every generation of Americans will face the moment when they have to defend democracy. Stand up for the right to vote and our civil rights. This dispute is possible because freedom as an abstraction is fraught with multiple and often conflicting meanings.
Once early humans had developed spears, Haidt continues,anyone could kill a bullying alpha male. Anything that suggests the aggressive, controlling behavior of an alpha male (or female) can trigger this form of righteous anger, which is sometimes called reactance. In democracies, voters, on average, favor the taller candidate and often crave a “strong leader." They might ostracize him (the alpha male) but mostly they assassinate him. As far as “coercive alpha males" go, Trump is a bully, as demonstrated by his treatment both of competitors for the nomination in 2016 and of Gov.
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