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Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, May 27, 2021. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesJapan's outgoing central governor Haruhiko Kuroda defended the Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish monetary policy stance at his final policy meeting on Friday. Kuroda has led the central bank's ultra-dovish monetary policy for the past decade – even as global central banks in recent months raised interest rates in a bid to tame inflation. "Financial conditions have been accommodative on the whole, although weakness in firms' financial positions has remained in some segments," the central bank said. New BOJ leadershipJapan's upper house in parliament approved Ueda to be the next central bank governor, Kyodo reported.
At its two-day meeting that ended on Friday, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. It also left unchanged a band set around the 10-year yield target that allows the yield to rise up to 0.5%. “The decision to uphold policy rates comes at a cost. Many investors expect the central bank to phase out YCC when Kuroda’s successor, Kazuo Ueda, takes the helm in April. “The BOJ will likely abandon its 10-year bond yield target, while maintaining negative interest rates, to arrest distortions in the yield curve,” he said.
"After conducting an examination of its policy framework, the BOJ will either abandon the 10-year yield target or shift to one targeting a shorter duration," she said. At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is set to maintain its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. Some market players bet the BOJ could widen the band set around the 10-year yield target, allowing the yield to rise up to 0.75%, from the current 0.5%, as early as Friday. But many analysts polled by Reuters expect any tweak in YCC to happen after Ueda takes over as new governor. Ueda will chair his first policy meeting on April 27-28, when the board will produce closely watched, fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts extending through fiscal 2025.
The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, was flat at 104.64, but was still set for a February gain of 2.6%, its first monthly increase since September. The next move in the dollar is really a function of how the February data starts to play out in March," Atrill said. U.S. Treasury yields have also moved higher with the inflation sensitive two-year yield back at three-and- a-half-month highs. [US/}The dollar on Tuesday gained particularly against the Japanese yen , climbing 0.44% to 136.84, its highest in over two months. ,Elsewhere, sterling built on its gains from the previous session against the dollar, rising 0.2% to $1.2082.
EUROPE Market mood downbeat ahead of raft of data
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaThe overarching downbeat mood among investors shows no signs of improving as markets become increasingly wary of a further rise in borrowing costs. Although U.S. markets took a breather and rose on Monday, they ended well below the day's highs and Asian markets were back in the red on Tuesday after gaining in early trade. Tuesday's U.S. consumer confidence data will be especially scrutinised for households' views on economic prospects and inflation expectations. European markets will deal with CPI data due from France and Spain. While inflation has eased a bit, providing some support to markets, a barrage of economic data suggests that inflation is stickier than expected, reinforcing the "higher-for-longer" rates view.
Rather, it must come up with ideas" to mitigate the costs and help sustain stimulus, Uchida told an upper house confirmation hearing. The remarks follow those of incoming BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday suggesting his preference to spend "plenty of time" if the central bank were to conduct a review of its policy framework. While stressing that it was premature to discuss an exit strategy from ultra-loose monetary policy, Uchida said any exit would involve adjustments in the BOJ's interest rate targets and the level of its balance sheet. "In what order and at what timing the BOJ will make these adjustments will depend on economic and financial developments at the time," Uchida said. The BOJ can tap its experience conducting ultra-loose policy and dealing with market forces, to ensure it can steer a smooth exit regardless of economic conditions at the time, he said.
TOKYO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Incoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Tuesday the central bank shouldn't modify its ultra-easy monetary policy just to address the side-effects of prolonged stimulus. It shouldn't modify easy policy just because there are side-effects. Rather, it must come up with ideas" to mitigate the costs and help sustain stimulus, Uchida told an upper house confirmation hearing. The remark follows that of incoming BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday suggesting his preference to spend "plenty of time" if the central bank were to conduct a review of its policy framework. Markets are rife with speculation the BOJ will overhaul its bond yield control policy once Ueda succeeds incumbent Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term ends in April.
Bank of Japan deputy governor nominee Shinichi Uchida speaks during a hearing at the lower house of parliament on Feb. 24, 2023 in Tokyo. Incoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Tuesday brushed aside the chance of an immediate overhaul of ultra-loose monetary policy, suggesting that any review of its policy framework could take about a year. It shouldn't modify easy policy just because there are side-effects. Rather, it must come up with ideas" to mitigate the costs and help sustain stimulus, Uchida told an upper house confirmation hearing. "Any such special type of examination is better done by taking a wide perspective looking at various factors," he added.
Morning Bid: Market mood downbeat ahead of raft of data
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Tuesday's U.S. consumer confidence data will be especially scrutinised for households' views on economic prospects and inflation expectations. Economists polled by Reuters expect a median reading of 109.5 on the index, which unexpectedly fell in January. European markets will deal with CPI data due from France and Spain. While inflation has eased a bit, providing some support to markets, a barrage of economic data suggests that inflation is stickier than expected, reinforcing the "higher-for-longer" rates view. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland.
Dollar edges higher, headed for 1st monthly gain since September
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
"The market has repriced the Fed and it now sees a higher terminal rate and low scope for cuts for the rest of the year. And that's what the dollar strength reflects," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist, at UBS. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of peers, was 0.29% higher at 104.98, and is set for a February gain of 2.4%, its first monthly increase since September. We think some of the dollar strength is exaggerated. So we are cautiously fading dollar strength," UBS' Serebriakov said.
[1/3] A general view shows a parliamentary session at the Lower House of Parliament in Tokyo, Japan November 10, 2021. In a column issued last July, Ueda warned against raising rates prematurely but said the BOJ must eventually consider how to exit its ultra-loose policy. The government's deputy governor nominees - former banking watchdog head Ryozo Himino and BOJ executive Shinichi Uchida - will testify in the afternoon after Ueda. The upper house of parliament will hold the confirmation hearing for Ueda on Monday, and that for the two deputies on Tuesday. Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around 0% as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said on Friday it has decided to launch a pilot program in April for issuing a digital yen, moving a step closer to launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in a country that lags in digitizing its payment systems. The move, which was widely expected, will follow two years of experiments the central bank has been conducting to decide whether to issue a CBDC. "Our hope is that the pilot program will lead to improved designs through discussion with private businesses," BOJ Executive Director Shinichi Uchida said in opening remarks at the central bank's meeting with private-sector executives. While it was up to the public to decide whether to actually issue a digital yen, the BOJ will "continue to make thorough preparations" when circumstances lead to the launch of a CBDC, the central bank said in a statement.
Kazuo Ueda, a 71-year-old university professor who has kept a low profile despite strong credentials as a monetary policy expert, ticked some important boxes. While he was not even on the list of dark horse candidates floated by the media, Ueda was well known in global central bank circles. The bank's preferred choices were incumbent deputy governor Amamiya, as well as former deputies Hiroshi Nakaso and Hirohide Yamaguchi, given their deep knowledge on monetary policy. Matsuno said he hoped the BOJ works closely with the government and guides monetary policy flexibly, when asked whether Ueda's appointment could lead to a retreat from Abenomics. While he warned of the rising cost of the BOJ's yield control policy, Ueda has called for the need to keep monetary policy loose to ensure Japan stably achieves the bank's 2% inflation target.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesKazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, succeeding current central bank chief Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Kishida recently emphasized the need for the next central bank governor to have "global communication skills" and be able to coordinate closely with global peers, Reuters reported, citing his comments in parliament. He has led the central bank's ultra-dovish monetary policy, including maintaining a negative interest rate since 2016 – even as global peers have been hiking to tackle inflation. Bank of America Global Research expects gradual policy normalization under the central bank's new leadership instead of an abrupt change, according to the firm's economists led by Izumi Devalier. 'Well-suited' deputiesJapan's government also reportedly announced its nominees for other central bank roles including Shinichi Uchida, currently the central bank's executive director, and Ryozo Himino, the former chief of Japan's Financial Services Agency.
[1/2] Kazuo Ueda, a former member of the BOJ's policy board, is seen at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan May 25, 2022, in this photo taken by Kyodo. Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan policy board member and an academic at Kyoritsu Women's University, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8. The governor and deputy governor nominees will testify at confirmation hearings to be held on Feb. 24 for the lower house, and Feb. 27 for the upper chamber. International markets have been closely watching Kishida's choice of next BOJ governor for clues on how soon the bank could phase out its yield curve control (YCC) policy. With markets creaking under the BOJ's heavy-handed intervention, many investors are betting the central bank will start hiking rates under Kuroda's successor.
[1/4] A Japanese flag flutters atop the Bank of Japan building under construction in Tokyo, Japan, September 21, 2017. "This is a problem that is not going to change easily," said Momoko Nojo, a prominent campaigner for gender equality in Japan. The BOJ ranked 142nd of 185 central banks on gender equality, according to a report last year by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. About 11% of central banks surveyed had a female governor, a record high, while 37% had female deputy governors. That target is far below the European Central Bank, where women hold 30% of management roles.
With inflation accelerating, Ueda could finally set Japan on a path to raise rates after the BOJ spent a decade fighting deflation risks with its unorthodox bond buying scheme costing trillions of yen. Ueda himself on Friday said current policy settings were appropriate, which also put a bit of a dampener on expectations of any shift. Implied volatility has also eased in the forex options market, suggesting an ebbing in bets on big shifts in the yen exchange rate. "It's not very apparent that (Ueda) would take on the job and then immediately change the policy." To be sure, 10-year Japanese yields were untraded at the BOJ's ceiling on Monday, indicating plenty of investors are staying short.
Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8, according to documents presented to parliament on Tuesday. Analysts expect Ueda, who had warned of the dangers of premature interest rate hikes in the past, to hold off on tightening monetary policy. "Ueda is likely to focus on theory and empirical analysis in guiding monetary policy," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Upon parliament's approval, Ueda will chair his first BOJ policy meeting on April 27-28. A soft-spoken academic with a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ueda is seen as a pragmatist who can adjust his views on monetary policy flexibly.
The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday. The Japanese yen pushed higher against both the euro and U.S. dollar on Friday after a Nikkei report said Kazuo Ueda would be appointed as the Bank of Japan's next governor. Economist Ueda is a former member of the central bank's policy board. Kuroda has overseen the BOJ's policy of ultra-low interest rates while other major central banks have been hiking to tackle inflation. However, Muto added, he may not be a "super hawkish type" – so any "normalization" would take place very slowly.
Tokyo, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Japan's government is likely to appoint Kazuo Ueda, an academic and a former member of the central bank's policy board, as the Bank of Japan's next governor, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Friday. The government will also nominate Ryozo Himino, former head of Japan's banking watchdog, and BOJ executive Shinichi Uchida as deputy governors, the Nikkei said. The government initially sounded out incumbent Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya for the top BOJ job, but he declined, the Nikkei reported without citing sources. The yen strengthened from around 131.55 yen per dollar to around 130.60 after the Nikkei report. In an opinion piece that ran on the Nikkei in July last year, Ueda said warned the BOJ against prematurely raising interest rates just because inflation briefly exceeded 2%.
The BOJ’s YCC faces a reckoningThe surprise news left investors and analysts trying to parse Ueda's recent commentary. "There is probably a lack of clarity on Ueda's policy leanings at the moment, but at least it is clear that Amamiya (who is seen as a dove) is out. That removes one of the headwinds for the yen," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore. "The knee-jerk reaction in yen appreciation is more of a reaction to Amamiya being out of the race." I think the new team means that they will redesign the BOJ's monetary policy, not maintain the current policy," said Takayuki Miyajima, a senior economist at Sony Financial Group in Tokyo.
[1/3] Toshiya Imura, 38, a comedian-turned-investor, poses for a photograph during an interview with Reuters in Tokyo, Japan December 26, 2022. REUTERS/Issei KatoTOKYO, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Japan's newest star investor has no car or hobbies and rarely eats out. Small investors took notice and piled into the companies, which have become known as "Imura stocks". "Good business performance alone can't become alpha," he said, referring to the returns on an investment that exceed a benchmark. Mitsui Matsushima, Sumiseki and First Bank of Toyama all declined to comment when asked about Imura.
Banca Angliei și Trezoreria Regatului Unit intenționează să lanseze o monedă digitală care ar urma să poarte denumirea de „Britcoin”. „Înfiinţăm un grup operativ între Banca Angliei şi Trezoreria britanică pentru a coordona activităţile experimentale privind o potenţială monedă digitală bancară centrală”, a afirmat Sunak la o conferinţă a industriei financiare. Banca Angliei a precizat că o versiune digitală a lirei sterline nu va înlocui nici numerarul şi nici actualele conturi bancare. Anterior, inclusiv Banca Centrală Europeană a anunțat astfel de experimente pentru emiterea unei monede euro digitale. Dacă va fi necesar, Banca Centrală va lansa un program pilot care implică furnizori de servicii de plată şi utilizatorii finali.
Persons: Curând, Andrew Bailey Organizations: Banca Angliei, BBC, Reuters, Agerpres, Angliei, Banca, Japoniei, Banca Centrală Europeană, Banca Centrală Locations: Regatului Unit, Rishi, Angliei
Sursa foto: Profimedia ImagesBanca Angliei începe experimentele pentru crearea unei monede complet digitale: BritcoinBanca Angliei și Trezoreria Regatului Unit intenționează să lanseze o monedă digitală care ar urma să poarte denumirea de „Britcoin”. „Înfiinţăm un grup operativ între Banca Angliei şi Trezoreria britanică pentru a coordona activităţile experimentale privind o potenţială monedă digitală bancară centrală”, a afirmat Sunak la o conferinţă a industriei financiare. Banca Angliei a precizat că o versiune digitală a lirei sterline nu va înlocui nici numerarul şi nici actualele conturi bancare. Anterior, inclusiv Banca Centrală Europeană a anunțat astfel de experimente pentru emiterea unei monede euro digitale. Dacă va fi necesar, Banca Centrală va lansa un program pilot care implică furnizori de servicii de plată şi utilizatorii finali.
Persons: Curând, Andrew Bailey Organizations: Angliei, BBC, Reuters, Agerpres, Banca Angliei, Banca, Japoniei, Banca Centrală Europeană, Banca Centrală Locations: Angliei, Regatului Unit, Rishi
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