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Japan's economy is set to enter into recession as export growth slows, according to Capital Economics. "We think the Japanese economy will enter a recession sometime next year," said Marcel Thieliant, senior Japan economist at Capital Economics, said CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" Tuesday. Exports rose by 25.3%, slower than a year-on-year growth of 28.9% seen in September. Meanwhile, imports jumped 53.5% year-on-year in October, higher than a year-on-year growth of 45% the previous month. That would mean it's already headed for what is commonly categorized as a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
By pointing to 2027 as the moment when East Asia's power balance may tip in China's favour, Japan's government can rally support for greater defence spending, he added. At a congressional hearing last year, U.S. Indo-Pacific commander Admiral Philip Davidson said that China's threat against Taiwan could "manifest" that year. Japanese defence ministry officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In July, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida won national upper house elections with a pledge to "substantially" increase defence spending. The splurge of defence spending should also benefit U.S. suppliers such as Lockheed, Boeing Co (BA.N) and Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC.N).
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