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☆ Morning Bid: Catching breath as Nvidia update due
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. The dollar (.DXY) continued to fall, however, with its DXY index down for the fourth day to its lowest since August. Dollar losses were broad based, but China's yuan appeared to lead the way to its strongest level since July 27. In Europe, sterling pushed higher ahead of expected tax cuts at Wednesday's budget speech from UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Sam Altman, OpenAI, hoover, LSEG, Jeremy Hunt, Siena, Christine Lagarde, Isabel Schnabel, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Tech, Nvidia, St, Wall, Treasury, Reserve, Bank of, Monday, Philadelphia Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, Lowes, Autodesk, Devices, Jacobs Solutions Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of China, China, St, Europe, Britain, Italy, Chicago, Canada

☆ EU fiscal pact ignores green elephant in the room
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

REUTERS/Henry Nicholls Acquire Licensing RightsMILAN, Nov 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The European Union’s troubled fiscal pact, once branded as "stupid" by former European Commission President Romano Prodi, has reached its sell-by date. Average EU debt has been consistently above the 60% target. NEW COURSEThe proposed revamp of the fiscal pact, now under discussion, is an improvement. BRAVE NEW DEBT WORLDFor all of Brussels’ reforming zeal, Europe’s future debt rules ignore a giant elephant in the room: climate change. Another option is to remove green investments from the fiscal rules’ deficit calculations.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Romano Prodi, Christian Lindner, Giorgia Meloni, Breakingviews, Bruno Le Maire, Olaf Scholz’s, Mario Draghi, Francesco Guerrera, Thomas Shum Organizations: Trust, REUTERS, Reuters, European, Reuters Graphics Reuters, European Commission, French Finance, EU, Intel, European Central Bank, Italian, Union, Thomson Locations: Green Park, London, Britain, Maastricht Treaty, Germany, it's, Italy, Greece, Brussels, EU, United States, Spain, Europe

Milei, who is pledging economic shock therapy such as shutting the central bank and dollarization, won a second-round runoff vote on Sunday with some 56% to rival Sergio Massa's 44%. Milei now faces the huge challenge of turning around the economy once he takes office on Dec. 10. "It is an economy that is in intensive care," said Miguel Kiguel, a former undersecretary of finance at the Economy Ministry in the 1990s. A central bank poll of analysts forecast 185% inflation by the end of the year. In a bid to tamp down inflation Argentina's central bank has hiked the benchmark interest rate to 133%, which encourages saving in pesos, but hurts access to credit and economic growth.

Persons: Javier Milei, Sergio Massa's, Milei, Miguel Kiguel, Lucio Garay Mendez, Vaca Muerta, Eugenio Marí, Hernan Nessi, Adam Jourdan, Daniel Wallis, Chris Reese Organizations: Economy Ministry, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Coldplay, Reuters Graphics, CENTRAL, International Monetary Fund, Libertad y Progreso Foundation, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, dollarization, Argentina, China, Brazil

☆ US equity funds draw heavy inflows on expectations for Fed pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LSEG data shows that U.S. equity funds attracted about $9.33 billion in net inflows during the week, marking the largest weekly net purchase since Sept. 13. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsLarge-cap U.S. funds led the charge, securing $8.54 billion in net inflows, the highest in two months. Small- and multi-cap funds also saw substantial inflows, garnering $1.23 billion and $1.01 billion, respectively. High-yield funds, riding on improved risk sentiment, garnered $4.5 billion, following a robust $6.3 billion net purchase in the prior week. Conversely, U.S. short/intermediate government and treasury funds, along with general domestic taxable fixed income funds, saw withdrawals of $1.13 billion and $897 million, respectively.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Technology, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Take Five: Black Friday is (almost) here
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the shopping season that follows the Thanksgiving holiday, while business activity data should gauge the temperature elsewhere. 1/ BARGAIN HUNTINGThe crucial holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday on Nov. 24 at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient. This year's Black Friday comes as Americans grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Already, data for October showed U.S. retail sales fell, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was less than expected. As long as that's not the case, pressure is on the Kishida cabinet since a weak yen is unpopular politically.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, There's, PIMCO, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, bode, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Pragmatist Massa, Prinz Magtulis, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Mark Potter Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Black, Nvidia, Insider Intelligence, European Commission, PMI, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, DOWNING STREET, Labour, gilts, Natwest, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Peronist, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Argentina, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Britain, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, South Africa, India

The economy is likely already in recession and is expected to contract again next year. Shortly after being sworn in as economy minister, Massa in August 2022 pledged to stop printing money to fight inflation. "Markets will likely prefer a Milei victory simply because he is more credible on delivering the fiscal adjustment." "Every investor understands that the macroeconomic adjustments that Argentina needs will inevitably translate into short-term pain." For investors, Argentine stocks traded in New York (.MIAR00000PUS) have been a beacon of hope, up near 15% year to date.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Luis Robayo, Pilar Tavella, Alejo Czerwonko, Massa, Carlos de Sousa, UBS's, JPMorgan's Diego Celedon, Celedon, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: por la Patria, La Libertad, University of Buenos, Law School, Global, Peronist, Barclays, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Argentina, Monetary Fund, Itau, IMF, Emerging, UBS Global Wealth Management, Vontobel Asset Management, Argentine, UBS, Thomson Locations: Argentina, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires Argentina, New York, Argentine, outperforming

U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping, who met in San Francisco on Wednesday, may disagree on the terminology. Barely half the manufactured goods imported into the United States from low-cost Asian countries now come from China. Chinese firms have raised just $529 million from initial and secondary stock offerings in the United States in the year to mid-October. But the conscious decoupling between the U.S. and China looks set to continue. Follow @ugalani and @a_fitri_alias on XCONTEXT NEWSU.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on Nov. 15 in San Francisco on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

Persons: Xi, Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, friendshoring, China’s Xi Jinping, Breakingviews, Donald Trump, China’s ByteDance, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Una, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: U.S, Economic Cooperation, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, People’s Republic . U.S, People’s, World Trade Organization, Reuters Graphics Reuters, FRAYING FINANCE, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal, Investment Board, HK, Republican, Reuters Graphics Apple, United, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Filoli, Asia, Woodside , California, U.S, Rights MUMBAI, United States, China, Washington, People’s Republic ., San Francisco, People’s Republic, Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, That’s, New York, Greater China, India, TAIWAN, Taiwan, Una Galani, Mumbai, London

Service centers - facilities that play a crucial role in supplying manufacturing companies nearly finished steel products - had paused purchases ahead of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union's coordinated strike against the Detroit automakers. However, many of them were soon forced to place large orders as stocks ran low and operations resumed at the carmakers. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe automotive segment makes up about 25% of the total U.S. sheet demand, with about 65% of that attributable to the Big Three Detroit automakers in any given year, CRU data showed. Nucor Corp (NUE.N) has raised HRC prices to $950/st while U.S. Steel (X.N) recently announced a $100/st price increase, without specifying a final rate. Meanwhile, automakers stare at higher costs for a key raw material if prices extend their upward trajectory for longer.

Persons: union's, Ryan McKinley, Morgan, Philip Gibbs, Gordon Lee Johnson, Ananta Agarwal, Nathan Gomes, Arpan Varghese, Sriraj Organizations: Detroit Three, CRU Group . Service, United Auto Workers, UAW, Detroit, CRU, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Big Three Detroit, Cleveland Cliffs, HRC, Nucor Corp, U.S . Steel, KeyBanc, GLJ Research, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

☆ China’s property boost has to sway wary banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Chan Ka Sing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That didn’t work because lenders balked at increasing their exposure to over-leveraged real estate groups. Xi needs to articulate a broader plan to restore banks’ confidence in the troubled property sector. Beijing’s problem is that the cash it doles out may not reach the intended targets because banks are reluctant to pass it on to property developers. Chinese banks heeded the strong signal coming from Beijing. Still, simply throwing money at reluctant banks won’t help heal the current real estate wounds.

Persons: Aly, homebuyers, Xi, shantytown redevelopments, ”, Francesco Guerrera, Thomas Shum Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, People’s Bank of China, Authorities, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Guangfuli, Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, Beijing, shantytown

☆ Morning Bid: Murky US inflation picture
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

According to consensus forecasts at least, U.S. headline inflation is expected to have retreated sharply again in October back toward midyear lows around 3.3%. But underlying 'core' inflation is expected to stay stickier at an unchanged annual rate of 4.1% last month and still more than twice the Fed's target. But the Fed may want to hang tough long enough into a slowing economy to ensure that inflation is squeezed back to its 2% goal. And perhaps the negative tilt on October core inflation going into today's release leaves more room for a positive surprise. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday raised its oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next despite the weakening economic picture.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Biden, Xi, Shunichi Suzuki, Philip Jefferson, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Huw Pill, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, New, Bank of America's, Treasury, International Energy Agency, U.S, Economic Cooperation, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Japan's Finance, Home, Federal, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, California, San Francisco, Asia, China, Japan, Teck, United States

☆ Europe’s shrinking stash heralds economic trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But the interest they earned on their assets increased from 16 billion euros to 66 billion euros in the same period. As a result, euro zone firms’ net interest was negative 19 billion euros in the second quarter of 2023. These financial gains may have helped euro zone growth. A further 700 billion euros matures in 2026. Homeowners with mortgages, which account for around 27% of euro zone households, are yet to feel the brunt of higher rates.

Persons: That’s, Mathieu Savary, Gross, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ECB, BCA Research, Oxford Economics, International Monetary Fund, Oxford, IMF, Thomson Locations: Oxford, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, United States, China

[1/5] Several volunteers give Spanish classes to migrants outside the Las Raices Camp in La Laguna, Spain, November 5, 2023. The mix-up shows just how overwhelmed the Spanish archipelago is, Canary Islands president Fernando Clavijo told Reuters, after a record 32,000 migrants came so far this year. At Tenerife's Las Raices adult migrants' centre in San Cristobal de La Laguna, Camara and his friend from the voyage, 16-year-old Modou Lamin Jarju from Gambia, sat around with dozens of other west Africans. Reuters GraphicsOne of the most strained of the eight Canary Islands is El Hierro, its population of 9,000 more than matched by the arrival of 11,000 migrants this year. At its largest minors' centre on a recent day, some 300 children ate breakfast on a basketball court before Spanish lessons.

Persons: Borja Suarez, Moussa Camara, Camara, Classing, Fernando Clavijo, Fran Morenilla, Salaoum Colley, Amparo Morales, Clavijo, El Hierro, Corina Pons, Horaci Garcia, Charlie Devereux, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: REUTERS, CRISTOBAL, LA LAGUNA, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Las, Amnesty, Canaries, San Cristobal de La Laguna, Camara, Thomson Locations: La Laguna, Spain, Guinea, Europe, Islands, Spanish, Almeria, Canary, San Cristobal de La, Jarju, Gambia, El Hierro, European Union, Africa, Senegal

REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 13 (Reuters) - Tyson Foods (TSN.N) on Monday forecast revenue for its next fiscal year below Wall Street estimates after fourth-quarter sales missed expectations due to falling chicken and pork prices and slowing demand for its beef. Tyson is operating more efficiently, however, and demand for protein remains strong, CEO Donnie King told analysts on a call. Chief Financial Officer John R. Tyson said in an interview on Monday that it is "business as usual" in China. Tyson reported operating margins of 1.8% in its chicken business in the quarter ended Sept. 30, after losses during the previous two quarters. Adjusted profits were 37 cents per share versus analysts' expectations for 29 cents.

Persons: Arnd, Tyson, Donnie King, John R, Arun Sundaram, Granth, Tom Polansek, Shailesh Kuber, Jan Harvey, Chizu Nomiyama, Deepa Babington Organizations: Tyson Foods, REUTERS, Wall, Reuters, CFRA Research, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Davos, Switzerland, China, U.S, Bengaluru, Chicago

☆ China’s Singles Day shows buyers’ commitment issue
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Chan Ka Sing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Alibaba Group logo is seen during the company's 11.11 Singles' Day global shopping festival at their headquarters in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, November 11, 2020. The Singles Day sales period ended up with anemic growth in transactions, despite steep discounts by retailers. Alibaba (9988.HK), , the e-commerce giant behind Singles Day, used to hold a lavish gala in Shanghai to celebrate the consumption extravaganza. And China’s State Post Bureau said on Sunday that express delivery volume hit a record high during the Singles Day period, rising more than 23% between November 1 and November 11, compared to the previous year. Beijing may hope Chinese shoppers are more fatigued by the Singles Day’s barrage of promotions than consumption itself.

Persons: Aly, Xi, Taylor Swift, Alibaba, It’s, JD.com, Goldman Sachs, Francesco Guerrera, Thomas Shum Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, HK, Post Bureau, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, HONG KONG, Shanghai, Beijing

LSEG Workspace, a financial news and data platform, calculated inventory turnover ratios of 30 major U.S. retailers for Reuters. "I am relatively pessimistic about the holiday season," said Gerald Storch, retail consultant and former Target vice chairman and ex-CEO of Hudson's Bay. Department stores' holiday season is "likely not going to be that strong," said David Swartz, a Morningstar analyst. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTo be sure, inventory turnover is not the only metric Wall Street investors use to judge retailers' inventory levels. Some are already slashing prices and dangling discounts to clear excess inventory before Black Friday, the start of holiday shopping season.

Persons: King, King of Prussia, Sarah Silbiger, Gerald Storch, Jeff Bornino, David Swartz, Ulta, pare, Jason Benowitz, Joseph Feldman, Jane Hali, Nordstrom, Brian Mulberry, Savyata Mishra, Ananya Mariam Rajesh, Richa Naidu, Siddharth Cavale, Aishwarya Venugopal, Rod Nickel Organizations: REUTERS, Dollar, Walmart, Reuters, North America, Kroger, Department, Morningstar, TJX Companies, Dick's Sporting, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Roosevelt, Telsey Advisory, Research, Associates, Nordstrom, Zacks Investment Management, Thomson Locations: King of, King, King of Prussia , Pennsylvania, U.S, Hudson's, North

☆ US bond funds rack up biggest weekly inflow in three months
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - U.S. investors poured a massive sum into bond funds in the seven days leading to Nov. 8 on hopes of a turnaround in Treasury bond prices following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. A report from the U.S. Labor Department indicating a slowdown in job growth in October, also lifted bond prices last week. According to LSEG data, U.S. bond funds amassed a net $3.61 billion worth of inflows during the week, the biggest amount since July 5. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsU.S. high yield bond funds saw a significant boost in demand as they received a net $6.29 billion, the biggest weekly inflow since mid-April 2020. Additionally, large-cap funds saw $930 million worth of net purchases but mid-, and multi-cap funds had outflows of $661 million and $396 million.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, U.S . Labor Department, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics U.S, Investors, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Take Five: That rate cut trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Markets are keen to trade rate cuts and big central banks are pushing back, shining a new light on upcoming data in that tug of war. Traders, anticipating roughly three quarter-point Fed rate cuts next year, will now turn their attention to Tuesday's inflation data to confirm their view on the outlook. A sharper cooling could fan the peak rate talk, fuelled by October's employment report, which pointed to an easing in labor markets. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ ONCE BITTENThe robust dollar suddenly appears vulnerable to the push and pull in the market's Fed rate cut bets. The data could also help justify, or challenge, recent remarks from BoE chief economist Huw Pill that mid-2024 could be the time for rate cuts.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Dhara, Jerome Powell, Ping, Powell, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, BoE, Huw Pill, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Riddhima Talwani, Prinz Magtulis, Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Traders, Reuters, Beijing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, New York, Tokyo, Milan, London, Washington, September's, Germany, Europe, ITALY, Italy

☆ Japanese investors slow investments in overseas bonds and equities in Oct
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

According to the data, domestic investors accumulated a net 1.12 trillion yen ($7.40 billion) worth of overseas bonds last month in a third straight month of net buying. They also poured 736.6 billion yen into foreign equities, much lesser than about 1.17 trillion yen they put in the previous month. Japanese banks poured a net 609.2 billion yen into long-term overseas bonds last month after about 4.76 trillion yen worth of net buying a month ago. Meanwhile, trust accounts and insurers pulled out a net 210.8 billion yen and 270.6 billion yen, respectively. Year-to-date data indicated that Japanese investors were net purchasers of U.S. bonds, buying about 18.81 trillion yen worth by September, while they emerged as net sellers of European debt, offloading 1.25 trillion yen.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, Rashmi Organizations: REUTERS, Japan's Ministry, Finance, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Powell pushback puts cloud 9 beyond reach
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. Curiously, there was little change in that basic market pricing after Powell spoke - with end-2024 futures still pointing at a rate of 4.50-4.75% versus the current 5.25-5.50%. But the Treasury market did suffer a bigger jolt - as they were also undermined by poor demand at the latest long bond auction. But others pointed to a ransomware attack on the U.S. arm of The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which reportedly disrupted trades in the Treasury market on Thursday. Whatever the main cause, fresh bond market jitters were enough to knock the S&P500 out of its winning streak and close almost 1% lower.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's pushback, Powell's, Powell, 5bps, Sterling, Janet Yellen, Lorie Logan, Raphael Bostic, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Veterans, Commercial Bank of China, Treasury, University of Michigan, Dallas Federal, Atlanta Fed, European Central Bank, Financial Affairs, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, HK, Washington, Beijing, Atlanta

☆ IPO laggards’ race to the bottom misses the target
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A view shows the Milan stock exchange building, as stocks slid in the first hours of trading after fears that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank could trigger a broader financial crisis, in Milan, Italy, March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Claudia Greco Acquire Licensing RightsMILAN, Nov 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Italy is scrambling to make its stock market more attractive. Over the past few years, some prominent companies have moved their listing venue abroad. Companies rushing to list in the Netherlands are no doubt attracted by its lax approach to companies with dual voting share classes. Doubts over the sustainability of Rome’s high public debt push up listed companies’ cost of capital, depressing their valuations and making the stock market less appealing.

Persons: Claudia Greco, Giorgia, Rishi, Agnelli, Neil Unmack, Oliver Taslic Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Ministry, Companies, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Financial, Thomson Locations: Milan, Silicon, Italy, Amsterdam, New York, Paris, Italian, Netherlands, Britain, United States, London

☆ Biden’s economic scorecard touts fragile advantage
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

And if the political strategist James Carville was right that “it’s the economy, stupid,” the next several months could make or break Joe Biden’s economic record. As things stand, the current ruler of the free world touts a fragile advantage. Households’ disposable income after adjusting for inflation hit a record $20 trillion in the month that Biden’s measure was approved, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. STUDENT LOANSForgiving swaths of student debt was another of Biden’s campaign promises, but his efforts have so far failed. And with higher interest rates making debt service more expensive, Biden’s spending could come back to bite him on election day.

Persons: Joe Biden, Ken Cedeno, James Carville, Joe Biden’s, “, aren’t, Breakingviews, it’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell, ”, Realtor.com, Congressional Republicans haven’t, haven’t, WALL, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Edmond's Catholic, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, House, Republican, AMERICAN, ACT, Brookings Institution, Analysis, Walmart, Nordstrom, Deere, Caterpillar, Republicans, Commerce Department, Micron, Bank of America, Gallup, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, RSM, Congressional Republicans, Biden, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Conservative, Thomson Locations: St, Rehoboth Beach , Delaware, U.S, New York, Arizona, West Virginia

☆ Insurers can underwrite dirty energy with impunity
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Insurers used to get heat for underwriting fossil fuels. Membership of bodies like the Net-Zero Insurance Alliance (NZIA) was supposed to mean financial groups would cease supporting oil, gas and coal, speeding the pace of decarbonisation. Similarly, five of the Lloyd’s insurance market’s managing agents – RiverStone, Chaucer, RenaissanceRe, Ascot and Aegis – have not implemented any restrictions on fossil fuels. Insurers have even fewer qualms about supporting oil and gas. Governments have made energy security a key priority since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and can reasonably argue that abrupt halts to backing fossil fuels will just mean higher energy prices.

Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Starr don’t, – RiverStone, Chaucer, Insuramore, Pamela Barbaglia, George Hay, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Zero Insurance, Axa, Everest, Aegis, Reuters Graphics, X, Bayer, SEC, Paramount, Thomson Locations: Zurich, PICC, RenaissanceRe, Ascot, Ukraine

☆ Profitable Klarna poses IPO valuation conundrum
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Karen Kwok | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Last year, Siemiatkowski raised money at a $6.7 billion equity value, or 85% below its 2021 price tag of $45.6 billion. The implied Klarna valuation, before netting out the company’s cash or debt, would be roughly $14 billion. It’s hard to see Klarna getting close to those multiples, if it’s valued like a bank, since the Swedish company is nowhere near as profitable. For Siemiatkowski, then, the key to gaining an IPO valuation uplift will be to convince investors that Klarna is a lender but not a bank. Klarna raised $800 million at a $6.7 billion valuation in July 2022.

Persons: Sebastian Siemiatkowski, Klarna, That’s, Breakingviews, Siemiatkowski, Liam Proud, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Revenue, Thomson Locations: U.S, Swedish, United Kingdom

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - If the notorious 'term premium' is evaporating again, then last month's bond rout may just have been a nightmare. "If that's coming from term premium and it's tightening, then we have got to take that into account." As Summers estimated this week, a term premium just back at 60-year averages would put it at 150bps - 130bps above current levels. Morgan Stanley estimates an additional near $1 trillion in gross debt sales from G7 governments are coming down the pike next year. Morgan Stanley chart on G7 debt sales in 2024Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Christopher Waller, Larry Summers, selloff, York Fed's, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, Summers, Morgan Stanley, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, ., The, NY, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Congress, Thomson Locations: York, midyear, 150bps

☆ Workers are missing cog in US manufacturing gears
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - There’s a spanner in the freshly restarted U.S. manufacturing machine. Based in part on the planned construction spending, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that Biden’s initiatives could lead to as many as 250,000 new manufacturing jobs over the next two years. Pay growth is also cooling faster for production and manufacturing jobs, at 4.2% year-over-year in August, down from an 11% annual peak in December 2021 and compared to the national average of 4.5%, according to jobs website Indeed. By 2030, technological and cognitive skills in the manufacturing sector will be in far higher demand as the share of physical and manual tasks drops by more than a quarter from 2016, McKinsey says. The U.S. manufacturing engine may be humming along now, but employment-related complications threaten to throw sand in the gears.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Biden, Goldman Sachs, There’s, it’s, Sam, Francesco Guererra, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Deal, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Samsung Electronics, Intel, Bosch, Linde, Public, Ford, SK Innovation, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, McKinsey, University of Massachusetts, Economy Research, of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: Arizona, U.S, United States, China, Europe, Asia, it’s, Germany, Amherst

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