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☆ Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The results were part of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August. Fears of credit access have been rising steadily since early 2022, around the same time that the Fed began raising interest rates. While the Fed worries over higher prices, the inflation outlook was mixed. Expectations for inflation one year and five years out rose just 0.1 percentage point on the month, taking them respectively to 3.6% and 3%. That comes with an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, or 0.1 percentage point above its year-ago level.

Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, York Fed's Survey, Fed Locations: New, York

☆ With the economy holding up, why is the market still so down on America's banks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Regional bank stocks, in particular, gained as much as 35% before the bond warnings and downgrades began. The higher interest rates bond analysts cited hurt profits some, but most banks' net interest income and margins were higher than a year before. The ratings actions pushed the regional bank stock index 10% lower for the month-long period ending Sept. 8, according to Morningstar (the Moody's bank warning was issued August 7). By any reckoning, the argument about banks is about two things: Interest rates and real estate, specifically office buildings. The average regional bank stock rose 8% after earnings, Morgan Stanley said, with banks beating profit forecasts by an average of 5%.

Persons: Morningstar —, downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Jill Cetina, Cetina, Banks, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Scott Rechler, Jeff Greene, Alexander Yokum, Dick Bove, Bove, Yokum Organizations: First, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's Investors Service, Poor's, Fitch, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Fedwatch, RXR, Research, Odeon Capital Locations: First Republic, Regional, Moody's, U.S

☆ NY Fed survey: Markets bet ahead of July FOMC expected rate rise would be last
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed next meets on Sept. 19-20, and futures markets currently expect no increase for that gathering. Primary dealers also thought ahead of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting that the Fed would be able to cut rates at the April 2024 meeting. By the final quarter of next year, primary dealers told the New York Fed they expect a 4% federal funds rate, while the market participant survey predicted 3.88%. Fed holdings peaked in the summer of 2022 at just shy of $9 trillion and currently stand at $8.3 trillion. On Wednesday, Fed officials released the meeting minutes from the July FOMC meeting that showed some division over the need for their last rate rise.

Persons: Michael S, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Fed, New York Fed, Thomson

☆ Yen eases to 3-week low as traders weigh BOJ shift; focus on RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"As the new line in the sand is 1%, it would make sense to broaden the YCC band by this level." Investor attention during Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "However, we expect any post RBA strength in Aussie to be short lived given the weak global economic outlook." Bank of England's policy meeting on Thursday is in the spotlight, with markets evenly divided between a 25- and 50-basis-point increase. Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Carlos Casanova, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Organizations: of Japan's, Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Survey, Bank of, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: August cools Wall St stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's factory underperformance stood out once again and underlined its struggling recovery - perhaps the main driver of stalling industrial activity everywhere. With markets increasingly impatient at the patchy and underwhelming economic stimulus plans seen from Beijing so far, China stocks fell back (.CSI300), bucking Tuesday's wider Asia stocks rally. Sterling and UK stocks (.FTMC) fell back. Ride-hailing giant Uber's stock rose more than 2% before the bell and ahead of its earnings report. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, underperformance, Austan Goolsbee, Goolbee, Stanley Black, Decker, Zimmer Biomet, Revvity, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S ., Chicago Fed, Bank of England, Sterling, AMD, Caterpillar, Big Pharma, Pfizer, Merck, Ride, HSBC, BP, Uber, Prudential Financial, AIG, Starbucks, Molson Coors, Boston Properties, Caesars Entertainment, Illinois Tool, Natural Resources, Energy, Devon Energy, Gartner, Allstate, Paycom Software, Electronic, WEC, Rockwell, Public Service Enterprise, P Global, Dallas Fed, Chicago Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, Beijing, China, Asia, ., Marathon, Eaton, Altria, Marriott, Illinois, Progressive

☆ Yen eases to 3-week low as traders weigh BOJ shift, focus on RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen slipped to a fresh three-week low on Tuesday as traders pondered the Bank of Japan's steps last week to tweak its yield curve control policy, while the Australian dollar was soft ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision. "As the new line in the sand is 1%, it would make sense to broaden the YCC band by this level." Investor attention during Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "However, we expect any post RBA strength in Aussie to be short lived given the weak global economic outlook." Bank of England's policy meeting on Thursday is in the spotlight, with markets evenly divided between a 25- and 50-basis-point increase.

Persons: Carlos Casanova, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton Organizations: of Japan's, Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Survey, Bank of Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S

☆ Banks say conditions for loans to businesses and consumers will keep getting tougher
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Lending conditions at U.S. banks are tight and likely to get tighter, according to a Federal Reserve survey released Monday. The Fed's closely watched Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed that while credit conditions got more strict, demand declined as well. On the issue of consumer lending, banks "reported having tightened standards for credit card loans and other consumer loans, while a moderate net share reported having done so for auto loans." At his-post meeting news conference last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he expected the loan survey to be "consistent with what you would expect." "You've got lending conditions tight and getting a little tighter, you've got weak demand, and you know, it gives a picture of a pretty tight credit conditions in the economy," Powell said.

Persons: Banks, Jerome Powell, You've, you've, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed

The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS, also showed that banks expect to further tighten standards over the rest of 2023. Monday's SLOOS report - which Fed policymakers had in hand last week when they decided to deliver an 11th interest-rate hike after skipping one at their June meeting - suggests credit tightening is ongoing. For small firms, a net 49.2% of banks said credit terms were stiffer, versus 46.7% in the last survey. Smaller net shares of banks reported tightening standards for auto loans, though terms for credit cards did tighten somewhat. While still weak, demand for auto loans was the least soft in four quarters, while demand for credit card loans was essentially flat after two straight negative quarters.

Persons: Monday's, You've, you've, Jerome Powell, Daniel Silver, Ann Saphir, Nick Zieminski, Dan Burns, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Federal, Survey, Reuters, Thomson

And although credit application approvals are down, applications for credit cards have increased by 24.8%, showing that Americans are relying more and more on credit to make ends meet. So if your credit application was denied, your credit score should be the first place you look to determine the reason. Why: Your credit utilization is highYour credit utilization is the amount of credit you have available versus the amount you actually owe. For example, if you have a credit limit of $1,000 and you owe $900, your credit utilization is 90% of your available credit. Conversely, a credit limit of $1,000 with a balance of $100 puts your credit utilization ratio at 10% of your available credit, and would positively impact your credit score.

Persons: What's, they'll Organizations: Federal, Service, New York Federal Reserve, The New York Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Here's the salary Americans say they need to feel financially secure
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( Kamaron Mcnair | In Kamaronmcnair | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

To feel comfortable or financially secure, Americans need a salary of roughly $233,000 a year on average, Bankrate found. Although 1 in 3 Americans say low pay is the reason they don't feel secure, other factors are adding to the anxiety. Why Americans don't feel financially secureThe biggest contributors to Americans' financial insecurities may be things outside of their control. Other factors include the economic environment, which 48% of survey respondents cited, and rising interest rates, cited by 36% of respondents. As for retirement savings, 60% of Americans say they don't have a retirement-specific savings account, according to a recent NerdWallet survey.

Persons: Bankrate, Sarah Foster, Bankrate's, Foster, That's, wouldn't Organizations: Federal Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Fed Survey respondents show bearish outlook on equities through year-end
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey respondents show bearish outlook on equities through year-endCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on news from the latest CNBC Federal Reserve Survey.

Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC Fed Survey, CNBC, Reserve Survey

☆ The Fed is about to decide whether or not to keep ramping up its fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Some anticipate the Fed will raise rates again in July in an attempt to bring inflation down to the 2% target. Even if the Fed forgoes a rate increase on Wednesday, Fed officials have suggested the Fed may hike rates again at later meetings. The survey also found people's expectations of job loss fell 1.3 percentage points to 10.9%, suggesting rising job market strength. "I do not think that wages are the principal driver of inflation," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's May policy meeting. "For instance, recent evidence shows that wage growth tends to follow inflation, as well as expectations of future inflation."

Persons: —, it's, Jerome Powell, Adam Shapiro, Shapiro Organizations: Federal, Service, Committee, Fed, payrolls, Labor Statistics, Labor, Index, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of San, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Ukraine, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Inflation outlook hits two-year low in latest New York Fed survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The central bank's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations for May showed one-year inflation expectations down 0.3 percentage point to a 4.1% rate. Still, median inflation expectations over the longer run edged higher. The three- and five-year outlooks both increased 0.1 percentage point to respective readings of 3% and 2.7%. Some of the inflation rise has been fed by accelerating wages, and the survey showed the outlook there is also diminishing. Correction: The three- and five-year outlooks both increased 0.1 percentage point to respective readings of 3% and 2.7%.

Organizations: New York Federal Reserve Locations: Austin , Texas, New

☆ Why do businesses keep raising their prices?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Los Angeles CNN —After two years of surging prices, economists still can’t agree on what has caused the world’s worst inflation crisis in decades. The survey of 700 businesses across New York, Atlanta and Cleveland found that strength of customer demand outranked all other factors that companies weigh when setting prices, including steady profit margins and overall inflation. More than 82% of businesses surveyed said demand factored into their pricing decisions, while only 52% of businesses said they take the overall rate of inflation into account when setting prices. Are customers too willing to pay higher prices? Murphy said the restaurant has since raised prices more than once to keep up with inflation.

Persons: “, John Zheng, ”, Zheng, Mr, Mac’s, Mark Murphy, Murphy, ” Murphy, Emily Netti, “ I’ve Organizations: Los Angeles CNN —, New York Federal Reserve, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, CNN, Colgate, Procter, Gamble, PepsiCo, Federal Reserve, New York Fed Locations: Ukraine, New, New York, Atlanta, Cleveland, Manchester , New Hampshire, Syracuse , New York, Syracuse

☆ Stock Market Chaotic New Normal Will Screw Over Wall Street Investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Wall Street desperately wants the stock market to go back to the good ol' days. In that environment, any idiot — or anyone on Wall Street — could buy almost any asset, sit back, and watch its value increase. In this scenario, the stock market gets choppy. It was a pull-in-case-of-emergency valve that we pulled for so long that now it feels normal to Wall Street. Despite this constant caterwauling from Wall Street, Americans are working, spending, and helping the economy defy doom-and-gloom forecasts.

Persons: Justin Simon, Jasper Capital, that's, hasn't, it'll, Richard Hayne, —, haven't, Joe Weisenthal, Richard Haynes, Torsten Slok, Simon, Linette Lopez Organizations: Street, San Francisco Fed, Fed, Urban Outfitters, Auto, Walmart, Bloomberg, Urban, NASDAQ, Federal, Apollo Global Management Locations: Jasper, Wall Street, American

☆ More Americans Are Struggling Financially, as Inflation Takes a Toll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Americans have jobs. The share of U.S. adults who said they were doing “at least OK financially” fell sharply last year, to 73 percent from 78 percent in 2021, according to the latest Federal Reserve survey of Americans’ financial well-being, released on Monday. The erosion in financial health was broad-based, cutting across racial and ethnic lines, educational categories and income groups. The data, from the Fed’s Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, echoes other surveys showing that Americans feel glum about the economy and their own finances. But it provides new details on how the economic crosscurrents of a strong job market and rising prices are affecting families.

☆ Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a 'Soft Landing'? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +22 min

Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a ‘Soft Landing’? The soft, the hard and the grayThere isn’t any standard definition of an economic soft landing. But what’s an acceptable inflation rate? On the other side, policymakers used to believe that an unemployment rate below 4 percent was basically unattainable without runaway inflation. Unless we have a really, really hard landing, the overall story of the postpandemic economy will be one of remarkable resilience.

☆ PacWest leads losses in regional bank stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 9 (Reuters) - Shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) looked set to lead declines in U.S. regional lenders at market open on Tuesday as investors feared the ongoing banking crisis could deepen. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) hit a 30-month low last week after the collapse of First Republic Bank and PacWest's decision to explore strategic options. PacWest and Western Alliance, which have been at the heart of the sell-off in regional banks, saw the steepest decline in deposits in the first quarter after First Republic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Western Alliance (WAL.N) dropped 1.5%, while First Horizon Corp (FHN.N) and Zion Bancorp (ZION.O) dipped 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, with Arfstrom noting that the pullback in banks shares overall have made their valuations attractive. Wall Street executives and bank analysts last week called on regulators to quickly provide more protection for bank deposits and consider other backstops, arguing only an intervention could stop the crisis.

☆ PacWest, Western Alliance lead slide in regional bank stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 9 (Reuters) - Shares of regional lenders PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) and Western Alliance (WAL.N) resumed their slide in premarket trading on Tuesday as investors feared the ongoing banking crisis could deepen. PacWest dropped 13.6%, a day after the Los Angeles-based lender's decision to cut its quarterly dividend failed to stem worries about its financial stability. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) had last week touched 30-month lows after the collapse of First Republic Bank and PacWest's decision to exploring strategic options. PacWest and Western Alliance, which have been at the heart of the banking selloff, saw the steepest decline in deposits in the first quarter after First Republic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Banks tighten credit terms, see loan demand drop, Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

For small firms, conditions were slightly more stringent with a net 46.7% of banks saying credit terms were stiffer now vs 43.8% in the last survey. Banks reported that firms of all sizes were showing less demand for credit than three months earlier. But policymakers don't want the credit tightening to go so far as to cause a recession. One closely watched survey response, for example, is the net share of banks tightening commercial loan standards for large and middle-sized firms. The survey, with tightening standards a leading indicator of eventually falling loan volumes, has "historically helped determine whether a Fed tightening cycle leads to a hard or soft landing."

☆ Outlook for household spending slumped in April, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That came with a corresponding decline of 0.3 percentage point in the overall outlook for inflation over the next year. All of those levels are still above the Fed's 2% inflation target, though they are drifting closer to the goal. Food prices are projected to rise by 5.8%, a 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous month. The likelihood that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now increased to 41.8%, a 1.1 percentage point increase. Elsewhere in the survey, the one-year outlook for home price appreciation rose to 2.5%, the highest since July 2022 and a 0.7 percentage point increase from March.

☆ CNBC Fed Survey respondents expect rates to stay high for eight months
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey respondents expect rates to stay high for eight monthsCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on results from the latest CNBC Federal Reserve Survey.

☆ Morgan Stanley: A strong earnings season is giving investors a false sense of security. These 20 defensive stocks have the stability to survive the downturn that's still coming.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But on the back of slowing macroeconomic data, Morgan Stanley says this optimism may be unwarranted. The bank shared 20 defensive stocks with stable earnings to buy as markets grow more volatile. Perhaps the metric that demonstrates this best is earnings revisions breadth, or the ratio of companies revising future guidance higher compared to those lowering guidance. In a May 1 note, Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson wrote that "revisions breadth for the overall S&P 500 is up 5.5% since earnings season began." Wilson pointed to a correlation between a change in price and revisions breadth as one catalyst for this change in consensus.

☆ 44% of CNBC Fed survey respondents see rate cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email44% of CNBC Fed survey respondents see rate cuts this yearCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the results from the most recent Federal Reserve survey.

Parafin, launched in 2020, works with so-called platform partners, or companies that other small businesses sell their products through. All the cofounders knew was that they wanted to build technology that would help small businesses. And they may not get their first contract payment from the government for as long as 120 days," Reed, the startup's CEO, told Insider. Helping small businesses manage their taxesComplYant's founder Shiloh Jackson wants to help people be present in their bookkeeping. HoneyBookWhile countless small businesses have been harmed by the pandemic, self-employment and entrepreneurship have found ways to blossom as Americans started new ventures.

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