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☆ One sector outperforms the stock market 100% of the time when an economic recovery begins, Bank of America says. Where to invest now, and 5 reasons why the downturn phase is over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

What happens to the US economy nextBank of America's economic indicator has made a sudden pivot upwards, from the lows of a "downturn" phase into the gradual strengthening of a "recovery" phase. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions.

Persons: it's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Jan, Staples underperformed, Bank of America Subramanian, Dev Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, Thomson, PMI, Supply Management Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey, Conference Board, Bond, ICE, Utilities, Health Care, Fed, of America

☆ "Barbenheimer" makes waves for July's movie spending, but box office recovery still lags
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Amina Niasse | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - "Barbenheimer" - the twin-bill summer box office phenom - sure helped to drive U.S. consumers back to cinemas last month, but movie-going is still struggling to catch up to other recreational spending categories post-pandemic. While that helped long-suffering box office receipts, it made less of a splash for overall consumer spending when compared to larger categories like clothing and household furnishings, economists at Oxford Economics said. It made a big difference in the live-event spending area though, at least for the moment. This summer’s box office has been out of the ordinary with ticket sales for the season up $500 million from last summer’s sales, according to data firm Box Office Mojo. While other categories of live-event spending have fully recovered from the hit delivered by pandemic shutdowns, film attendance outlays remain at roughly 65% of their pre-COVID levels.

Persons: Mike Blake, Oppenheimer, Michael Pearce, Taylor, Amina Niasse, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Warner Bros, Oxford Economics, Graphics, Mojo, Sporting, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Gillette, Billboard, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, Massachusetts

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Profit-taking weighed on shares across the board, with the MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) down 0.36%. Profit-taking also took hold in Europe, where European stocks (.STOXX) gave up earlier gains to edge down 0.37%. EASING YIELDSGovernment bond yields eased, adding to a sense of relief across markets. In currency markets, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies , added 0.474%, and remains higher over the month.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Harker, Robert Alster, Zhang Zihua, Koh Gui Qing, Tom Wilson, Julie Zhu, Kirsten Donovan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Investors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, CNBC, Profit, Asset Management, Nvidia, Beijing Yunyi Asset Management, Brent, . West Texas, Hong, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Europe, Turkish, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Beijing, New York, London, Hong Kong

☆ Fed's Harker expects no more rate hikes needed this year, in CNBC interview
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Harker spoke to the television channel on the sidelines of the Kansas City Fed’s annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But for Harker, it's very much a question of the economy working through the ongoing impact of the Fed's prior actions. We need to absorb that,'" the bank president said of his local contacts. He expects the unemployment rate to rise a touch to 4% or maybe higher and he believes growth should moderate. Harker also said it's too soon to say when the Fed might cut interest rates.

Persons: Patrick Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Ann Saphir, CNBC he's, Harker, let's, Jerome Powell, it's, you've, I'd, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Kansas, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, CNBC, Kansas City, Fed, Market, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Kansas

☆ 3 signs the US economy is set to zoom past growth expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, —, Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina

☆ It was a great week for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

New retail sales numbers, inflation, and a pause in rate hikes point to a strong week in the economy. All of this good news contributes to an economy that gave the Federal Reserve the confidence to skip its string of interest rate hikes this month. Interest rates skip hike as economy continues growingThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady at its Wednesday meeting, putting a pause on the Fed's 10 consecutive increases in 15 months. It all means Americans feel confident the economy is headed in the right directionAmericans are feeling better about the economy as well. Overall, this week's data shows the US economy is still going strong, even amid concerns over potential interest rate hikes later this year.

Persons: —, That's, Price, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Consumers, AAA, Labor Department, CPI, of Economic Advisers, of Labor Statistics, The Labor Department, Market, Fed, University of, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Bank Locations: –, New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.

Persons: That’s, Joe Biden’s, ”, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, “, ” Harker, It’s, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, you’ve, you’d, Dave Gilbertson, hasn’t, Ben Bernanke, ” Jack Macdowell, Louis President James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed’s, Louis, Jerome Powell, there’s, Ian Shepherdson, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association for Business Economics, CNN, Employers, of Labor Statistics, BLS, UKG, The Palisades Group, Hawkish Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, Pantheon Locations: Washington, Washington ,

☆ Fed's Harker sees more central bank action to quash inflation pressures
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said Thursday the U.S. central bank will have to do more on the policy front to get still high inflation pressures back down to the 2% target. Fed forecasts from late March projected one more increase after that before holding steady for the year, in a view affirmed by a number of recent policy makers’ comments. In his speech, Harker said the economy remains strong and inflation is coming down, albeit slowly. Harker said the current 3.5% unemployment rate should move up to around 4.4% this year, in a period where growth will be tepid. The bank president also said that last month’s financial sector woes will also weigh on the economy.

SummarySummary Companies Credit Suisse rebounds on lifeline from Swiss central bankHousing starts, jobless claims data due 8:30 am ETAdobe rises on upbeat profit forecastMeta, Snap climb as U.S. threatens TikTok banFutures mixed: Dow down 0.29%, S&P down 0.19%, Nasdaq up 0.16%March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were mixed on Thursday as the Swiss central bank's lifeline for embattled Credit Suisse did little to boost investor sentiment as they awaited economic data for clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates. U.S.-listed shares of Credit Suisse rose 8.8% in premarket trading after the bank secured a credit line of up to $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to shore up liquidity and investor confidence, which had nosedived after the lender's shares slumped on Wednesday. Troubles at Credit Suisse, coming on the heels of the collapse of SVB Financial (SIVB.O) and peer Signature Bank (SBNY.O) have sparked fresh worries about stress in the banking sector, dwarfing relief on expectations of less aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve. "Central banks are in a bit of a bind because they need to make sure that inflation is brought back under control. Shares of Adobe Inc (ADBE.O) supported Nasdaq futures, rising 5.8% in premarket trade after the Photoshop maker raised its 2023 profit target.

☆ 12 million student-loan borrowers could benefit from Biden's debt cancellation in the districts of the House Republicans who urged the Supreme Court to strike the relief down
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

128 House Republicans filed an amicus brief to the Supreme Court opposing student-debt relief. New data found that nearly 12 million borrowers in their districts would benefit from the relief. On Friday, the department unveiled data showing the breakdown of student-loan borrowers who applied, and were deemed eligible, for President Joe Biden's up to $20,000 in debt relief by congressional district. Over the past few weeks, 128 House Republican lawmakers filed an amicus curiae brief to the Supreme Court ahead of oral arguments on February 28 urging it to strike down Biden's debt relief. As the Education Department has previously said, over 40 million borrowers in total would qualify for Biden's debt relief, and of the 26 million borrowers who applied for the relief before the online application closed in October, 16 million of them had been fully approved.

☆ European markets set to inch higher as investors monitor inflation, rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are set for a fractionally higher open on Friday after closing the previous session at their highest level since April 2022. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed Thursday's trading up 0.7% at 450.22 points, after a choppy session following the latest U.S. inflation print. The December consumer price index report was in line with economist expectations for a monthly dip of 0.1% but a 6.5% rise in consumer prices year over year, compared with a 0.1% monthly gain in November and an annual rise of 7.1%. Investors around the world are closely monitoring inflation data for clues to how long and how far monetary policy tightening from central banks will go. Shares in Asia-Pacific were mostly higher on Friday, though Japan's Nikkei 225 slumped 1.25%, dragged down by a sharp decline for Uniqlo owner Fast Retailing as well as broad weakness in food and electronics stocks.

☆ Gold set for weekly gain on smaller U.S. rate-hike bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,898.57 per ounce, as of 0234 GMT. But we see gold continuing to rise despite cooling inflation because the market is looking at a lower dollar and smaller interest rate hikes," said Edward Meir, metals analyst, Marex. Gold is seen as an inflation hedge, but higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the asset. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Raphael Bostic said the inflation data may allow the Fed to scale back to quarter-point rate hikes at its upcoming meeting. Spot silver edged 0.1% higher to $23.79, platinum gained 0.1% to $1,068.79 while palladium slipped 0.6% to $1,780.91.

In that light, the Fed's interest rate hiking cycle is close to an end. That is still well above the Fed's target, but the speed and direction of travel since June's four-decade high of 9.1% is clear. U.S. breakeven inflation rates - the gap between yields on inflation-protected Treasuries and regular notes - reflect this. The two-year breakeven inflation rate this week fell as low as 2.02%, the lowest since December 2020. This will drive down the average inflation rate, whatever the time horizon.

☆ Fed's Harker ready to downshift to 25 basis-point interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

“In my view, hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward.”Once the Fed gets to a stopping place for rate increases, Harker said it will likely have to hold there for a while. Harker, in his speech, was upbeat about the economy’s ability to navigate the Fed’s action. Harker also said he believes the surge in price pressures has started to run its course. “In the rearview mirror, I expect, are the eye-popping inflation readings of 2022,” the official said. Harker added the Fed should reach its inflation goal in 2025.

☆ Philadelphia Fed suggests BLS overstated job growth in second-quarter by a million jobs
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPhiladelphia Fed suggests BLS overstated job growth in second-quarter by a million jobsA recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia charges the Bureau of Labor Statistics with potentially overstating job growth in the second quarter. CNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' to report.

☆ Philadelphia Fed factory activity index drops unexpectedly
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 17 (Reuters) - A gauge of manufacturing activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region fell unexpectedly this month to its lowest level - outside of the coronavirus pandemic - since 2011 as firms reported continued softness in new orders and a weak outlook. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly manufacturing index fell to negative 19.4 in November from negative 8.7 in October. The new orders index was negative for a sixth straight month, weakening fractionally from October with a current reading of negative 16.2. The six-month outlook index, which has also been consistently negative starting in June, came in at negative 7.1, up from negative 14.9 in October. The gauge of employment showed continued growth in hiring but at its weakest pace since June 2020.

☆ Morning Bid: Let's talk rates again
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In Europe also, policy makers are reminding markets that as long as broad-based inflation is not tamed, rate increases are still on the agenda. France's central bank chief said in a speech in Tokyo the European Central Bank will probably keep raising interest rates beyond 2%, but "jumbo" rate hikes will not become a new habit. Tuesday's data calendar has jobs figures due from the United Kingdom along with euro zone third-quarter GDP numbers and Germany's ZEW sentiment index. Asian stock markets advanced, with Chinese and Hong Kong shares - big underperformers so far this year - logging strong gains. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is expected to announce another White House bid on Tuesday even as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is cementing himself as the Republican Party's top rising star.

☆ Morning Bid: Detente and dollars
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Nupur Anand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. As investors closely monitor shifting economic sands, signs of some easing of this year's tense geopolitics adds a tailwind to the yearend market bounce. The dollar's ongoing retreat, amid hopes of a downshift in U.S. interest rate rises next month that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard encouraged late Monday, also riffs off a defusing of at least some extreme political risks. JPMorgan cut its full-year 2022 China growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.1% previously and its 2023 forecast to 4% from 4.5%. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Fed's Harker says time coming where Fed can slow rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

“In the upcoming months, in light of the cumulative tightening we have achieved, I expect we will slow the pace of our rate hikes as we approach a sufficiently restrictive stance,” Harker said in a speech text. But he added that moving from what had been 75 basis point increases to something like a half percentage point rise would still be significant action. Harker added, “at some point next year, I expect we will hold at a restrictive rate for a while to let monetary policy do its work” as more expensive borrowing costs impact the economy. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has increased the cost of short-term borrowing very rapidly this year, moving from a near zero short-term rate target to between 3.75% and 4% following last week’s 75 basis point rate rise. Harker, who doesn’t hold a vote on the FOMC this year but will in 2023, laid out what it will take for him to call for a shift in monetary policy.

☆ Sterling dips after Truss resigns, fragile yen weakens past 150 level
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan. The U.S. dollar pushed to a fresh two-decade high versus major peers on Thursday, propelled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook for interest rates. The euro fell 0.15% to $0.97725, after tracking the move in sterling to an overnight high of $0.98455. Meanwhile, the yen last bought 150.20 per dollar, after hitting a fresh 32-year low of 150.29 overnight. U.S. Treasury yields extended their climb overnight, with the two-year Treasury yield hitting a 15-year high of 4.623%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.243%, its highest level since June 2008.

Brent crude futures lost 5 cents to trade at $92.33 a barrel by 00:02 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 7 cents to trade at $84.58 a barrel. Brent was on track for a weekly gain of 0.7%, while WTI was expected to fall 1.3%. read moreMeanwhile, Beijing is considering cutting the quarantine period for visitors to seven days from 10 days, Bloomberg news reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Stephanie KellyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil prices settle up; China demand hopes outweigh recession worry
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterBrent crude settled at $93.50 a barrel, up $1.12, or 1.2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled at$85.05 a barrel, up 54 cents, 0.6%. Swings in the U.S. dollar, which typically moves inversely with oil prices, added to choppy trade. China, the world's largest crude importer, has stuck to strict COVID-19 curbs this year, weighing heavily on business and economic activity and reducing demand for fuel. U.S. oil rigs rose two to 612 this week, their highest since March 2020, while gas rigs were unchanged at 157.

☆ TSX ends lower as financials and industrials lose ground
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange sign is seen in Toronto, Ontario, Canada July 6, 2017. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 95.11 points, or 0.5%, at 18,579.29. Money markets expect the central bank to tighten by at least another 50 basis points at a policy announcement next week. The Toronto market's heavily weighted financials sector fell 1.2% while industrials ended 2.1% lower. Still, its shares ended 0.6% lower.

☆ Wall Street ends lower as Fed worries outweigh earnings
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The New York Stock Exchange building is seen from Broad Street in Lower Manhattan in New York, January 20, 2016. But stocks were unable to hold their gains as strong weekly jobless claims and comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker bolstered concerns about the Fed hiking rates and potentially tilting the economy into a recession. Better-than-expected results thus far has pushed earnings growth expectations for third-quarter for S&P 500 companies to 3.1% from a 2.8% increase earlier in the week, but still well below the 11.1% increase that was forecast at the start of July. Other data showed sales of existing homes fell for an eight straight month, while another reading showed factory activity in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's district contracted again in October. The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and 28 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 53 new highs and 239 new lows.

Brent crude futures fell 3 cents to settle at $92.38 a barrel. read moreThe U.S. dollar index pared losses after the comments, weighing on oil prices. A stronger dollar reduces demand for oil by making the fuel more expensive for buyers using other currencies. "Harker is saying that the war on inflation has just begun," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. The announcement, however failed to ease oil prices, as official U.S. data showed that the SPR last week dropped to their lowest since mid-1984, while commercial oil stocks fell unexpectedly.

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