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That’s precisely why the Fed is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time since 2020. Therein lies the one question on everyone’s mind: How aggressively will the Fed ultimately cut rates? A high threshold for jumbo rate cutsThe Fed makes its decisions on interest rates consistent with what’s happening in the economy. Fed officials have mostly signaled that they’re finally ready to cut rates, but some have still expressed some hesitance. But, for now, there’s no emergency demanding the Fed cut rates aggressively next month, or any time later in the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, pare, Price, Powell, “ They’re, ” Tani Fukui, they’re, Raphael Bostic, ” Powell, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Labor Department, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Traders, MetLife Investment Management, CNN, Atlanta Fed, Citi, Oxford Economics Locations: Unemployment, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Rising U.S.-China tensions have sent Chinese companies the signal that regardless of who wins the White House, overseas investment is the way to go. Chinese companies' interest in expanding overseas has accelerated since the pandemic as growth slowed domestically. "Top sectors that received Chinese investment have shifted from tertiary to manufacturing industries," the report said. "Interestingly, while Chinese companies have become more active in expanding business in ASEAN countries, they tend to maintain their presence in the West, suggesting the 'ASEAN+1' strategy may have increased." Even in the U.S, where new investment from China has fallen sharply, the report said that "Chinese companies have not materially withdrawn from the US market either."
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Marko Papic, Yotrio, Hanbell, Harris, it's, Tim Walz, , Michael Bloom Organizations: House, Republican, BCA Research, NBC, BCA, U.S ., U.S, Vital, Shandong Yuma Sunshade, ., Xinquan America Holdings, Industrial, Trump, Democratic National Convention, NBC News . Studies of, Chamber of Commerce, Electric, European Union, China Council, Promotion of International Trade, Oxford Economics, ASEAN Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, America, Japan, U.S . Shenzhen, Austin , Texas, Shandong Yuma, Yuma Texas, Shanghai, Singapore, Texas, Chino , California, Georgia, Taiwan, Shenzhen, Hong, Europe, Southeast Asia, ASEAN
Australia's second-quarter wages rise at slowest pace in a year
  + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Australian wages rose at their slowest pace in a year in the June quarter, falling short of expectations, while softer gains in the private sector suggest the labor market was easing. "The RBA will be somewhat relieved to see wage pressures subsiding," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "However, absent an improvement in productivity growth, the current pace of wage growth is still a little too strong for inflation to return to target quickly." The overall increase in annual wages was still just enough to take it above inflation of 3.6%, a welcome return to real pay growth after years of negative outcomes. Incomes will get an added boost from a major round of tax cuts that started in July.
Persons: Sean Langcake Organizations: Australian Bureau, Statistics, Oxford Economics Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia
There are cracks forming in the US jobs market
  + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
CNN —The pandemic threw the US job market into chaos, but four years later, things finally seem to be back to normal. Most indicators support the idea that the labor market is no longer overheated and could easily maintain a new normal of steady, but slower growth. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. “This is a labor market that’s otherwise moderated,” Nick Bunker, director of North American economic research at Indeed, told CNN. The same goes for the prime-age labor force participation rate, which at 83.7% also is the highest in 23 years.
Persons: hasn’t, Jerome Powell, Nick Bunker, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, , , , , Madhavi Bokil, Indeed’s Bunker, Bunker, ” Elise Gould, ” Bunker, “ It’s, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, can’t Organizations: CNN, Federal, of Labor, Challenger, Economic Policy Institute, Locations: Oxford
CNN —The pandemic threw the US job market into chaos, but four years later, things finally seem to be back to normal. Most indicators support the idea that the labor market is no longer overheated and could easily maintain a new normal of steady, but slower growth. “This is a labor market that’s otherwise moderated,” Nick Bunker, director of North American economic research at Indeed, told CNN. Labor force participation/employment to population ratio: These metrics are key reasons why Bunker and others believe the labor market remains in good shape. The same goes for the prime-age labor force participation rate, which at 83.7% also is the highest in 23 years.
Persons: hasn’t, Jerome Powell, Nick Bunker, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, , , , , Madhavi Bokil, Indeed’s Bunker, Bunker, ” Elise Gould, ” Bunker, “ It’s, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, can’t Organizations: CNN, Federal, of Labor, Challenger, Labor, Economic Policy Institute, Locations: Oxford
Where inflation is the highest and lowest in America
  + stars: | 2024-07-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
The Honolulu metro area in Hawaii, meanwhile, saw the nation’s highest annual inflation rate in May, at 5.2%. Housing costs have therefore eased over the past year, tugging inflation overall much lower. Tight housing-market conditions are also plaguing New York, which at one point boasted the lowest inflation rate in the country. Housing costs make up about a third of the Labor Department’s CPI, a closely watched inflation gauge. Inflation is down substantially from the 40-year highs of two years ago, but housing costs have remained stubbornly elevated.
Persons: , Barbara Denham, Brian Adcock, Willy Nunn, homebuilding, Adcock, , Jane Castor, it’s, homebuilders, Carl Bonham, Mengshin Lin, Roseann Freitas, ” Freitas, Freitas, Josh Green Organizations: Washington CNN, Consumer, Nationwide, Aloha State, Oxford, Labor Department’s CPI, Federal, Boomers, Tampa Bay Chamber, Miami, Tampa, Homes, CNN, ” Tampa, Urban, University of Hawaii, Washington Post, Building Industry Association of Hawaii Locations: The Tampa, St, Petersburg, Clearwater, Florida, Honolulu, Hawaii, Tampa Bay, homebuilding, Houston , Minneapolis, Denver, Central Florida, New York, Tampa The Tampa, Tampa, Hillsborough County, Pasco County, Miami, , Urban Hawaii, Lahaina , Hawaii, Lahaina
CNN —In 2018, Jonathan and Trista Schmier felt the economy was so strong that they could take a big risk. “The customers got very, very upset.”Trista and Jonathan Schmier felt confident enough about the economy during the Trump administration to open a small chain of restaurants. Poll after poll show that voters have more faith in Trump’s ability to handle the economy than President Joe Biden’s. By many measures, however, the economy under Biden — who took office while the pandemic was still underway — has also been strong. “I trust the other guy better,” said Southworth, 74, referring to Trump, whom he voted for in 2016 and 2020.
Persons: Jonathan, Trista Schmier, Angus, , Jonathan Schmier, ” Trista, Trump, Andrew Craft, Donald Trump, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Carroll Doherty, Doherty, Trump’s, Barack Obama, Biden —, , Bernard Yaros, ’ paychecks, Jimmy Carter, ” Yaros, Yaros, Ted Southworth, Ted, Rebecca Southworth, Ted Southworth Southworth, Southworth, Becky Cantrell, Cantrell Organizations: CNN, Fayetteville Observer, USA, Pew Research Center, Biden, Black Americans, Census Bureau, Oxford Economics, Trump Locations: Burger, Fayetteville , North Carolina, Burlington , North Carolina, , Florida
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina likely to 'undershoot' its GDP growth target for 2024 at current pace: EconomistLouise Loo, lead economist for China at Oxford Economics, says "we are expecting … consumer sentiment to stay quite weak, and what that means is that there is no sign of a visible turnaround for the second half of this year."
Persons: Louise Loo Organizations: China, Oxford Economics Locations: China
Experts hold drastically different views, creating a new hot-button topic that will continue to be debated up until the election in November. The camp staunchly opposed to Trump's policiesThe base argument against Trump's fiscal platform is that tariffs are, by nature, inflationary. AdvertisementIn a recent op-ed for the Financial Times, he cited the "benign" impact Trump's first-term tariffs had on the US economy. Looking ahead to a new term, Yardeni thinks Trump's most extreme pursuits will likely be watered down by Congress. AdvertisementRepublican donor Kyle Bass — who serves as the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management — has taken a different tact in his support of Trump's fiscal agenda.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump's, Trump, he's, David Kelly, Larry Summers, Paul Krugman, Goldman Sachs, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Steve Eisman, Kyle Bass —, Hayman Capital Management —, Joseph Stiglitz, Biden Organizations: Service, Donald Trump White House, Business, Trump, House Republicans, Foundation, New York Times, Peterson Institute, Yardeni Research, Financial Times, Congress, CNBC, Hayman Capital Management, Oxford Economics Locations: China, It's
PinnedThe monthly employment report on Friday is projected to show that employers added 190,000 jobs in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That would be a downshift from the 272,000 jobs added in May. The economy remains solid overall, with unemployment still low, the stock market hovering at new highs and wage growth outpacing inflation. But many economists say the labor market is in a sensitive place. Interest rates, which the Federal Reserve has driven significantly higher since 2022, have remained elevated longer than many businesses had hoped.
Persons: , Jerome H, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten Organizations: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, Oxford Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYen weakness: Japanese consumers are 'feeling the pain,' economist saysNorihiro Yamaguchi, senior Japan economist at Oxford Economics, discusses the challenge that the Bank of Japan faces when it comes to interest rates.
Persons: Norihiro Yamaguchi Organizations: Oxford Economics, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan
Add to that the noise surrounding the US election, and it could be a rougher second half. Central Banks in Canada and the eurozone have both cut interest rates, but inflation rose in both of those regions last month. Australia, meanwhile, saw its inflation rate rise to 4% this week, stoking fears that the Reserve Bank of Australia could soon move to raise rates again. It was already well known that no documentation was found to show who worked on the door plug. Without the bolts, the door plug incident was pretty much inevitable.
Persons: London CNN —, they’ve, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, stoking, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, , José Torres, Torres, wouldn’t, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Trump’s, Max, , Al Michaels, Michaels, Peacock, ” Michaels, , CNN Michaels, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, London CNN, Federal Reserve, foibles, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Central Banks, Reserve Bank of Australia, Interactive Brokers, Treasury, Trump, Peterson Institute, Oxford Economics, Allianz, CNN, Boeing, Alaska, Alaska Airlines, National Transportation Safety Board, Alaska Air, NBC, Summer Games, Olympics Locations: London, Canada, Australia, Renton , Washington, Paris,
Yet 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists are warning that Trump’s proposals wouldn’t just fail to fix inflation — they would make matters worse. “We the undersigned are deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the US economy,” the economists wrote in the Tuesday letter, which was first reported by Axios. The letter, organized by famed economist Joseph Stiglitz, argued there are valid reasons to worry the Trump agenda will “reignite” inflation. Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at the Road to Majority conference in Washington, Saturday, June 22, 2024. Jae C. Hong/Pool/APIn the letter, the 16 Nobel economists expressed concern about the rule of law and stability if Trump wins the White House again.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Axios, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump’s, Manuel Balce Ceneta, Joe Biden, , Stiglitz, , Biden, Jae C, “ Donald Trump, Robert Shiller, Paul Romer, George Akerlof, Janet Yellen, Biden’s, Joe, Donald Trump’s, ” Karoline Leavitt, don’t, Harry Enten, Moody’s Organizations: CNN, Peterson Institute, Oxford Economics, Allianz, Republican, AP Trump, Congressional, Federal Reserve, Trump, World Bank, Biden, ABC, Voters Locations: Washington, China, U.S, Mexico, Nogales, Ariz
Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a joint letter Tuesday warning of what they see as economic risks if former President Donald Trump were to serve a second term, including reheated inflation. "While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump's," the economists wrote. "There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets," wrote the group of politically progressive academics. Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize in 2001, led the effort to publish Tuesday's letter. "Nonpartisan researchers, including at Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the Peterson Institute, predict that if Donald Trump successfully enacts his agenda, it will increase inflation," the economists wrote.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe, Donald Trump's, Axios, Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, George Akerlof, Sir Angus Deaton, Claudia Goldin, Sir Oliver Hart, Eric Maskin, Daniel McFadden, Paul Milgrom, Roger Myerson, Edmund Phelps, Paul Romer, Alvin Roth, William Sharpe, Robert Shiller, Christopher Sims, Robert Wilson Organizations: Federal Reserve Board, Wall Street, Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, Peterson Institute Locations: China
Trade between the US and Germany was 63.2 billion euros in the first quarter of 2024, edging out the 60 billion euros of trade between China and Germany, according to data from the German government. AdvertisementElectric vehicles are causing riftsAutomobiles are at the center of a new dispute between China and Germany. Nearly a third of German car sales in 2023 came from China, according to Reuters, leaving the industry vulnerable to a trade war. The slump in German exports to China is a sign of vulnerability in trade relations, according to the FT. In 2022, trade between China and Germany was 50 billion euros greater than that between Germany and the US.
Persons: , Biden, EVs, Robert Habeck, Habeck, Oliver Rakau, Martin Wolf Organizations: Service, Business, European Union, Bloomberg, European Commission, BMW, Porsche, Volkswagen, Reuters, EU, European Union Chamber of Commerce, Atlantic Council, Oxford Economics, US, Trump, Biden Locations: China, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, West, Beijing, European, materializing, Red, Europe, Brussels
The European Central Bank began easing interest rates on Thursday, cutting its benchmark rate by 0.25%. Investors and economists expect the Federal Reserve to follow suit and cut interest rates in September. This combination means there's a good chance that the September cut Wall Street is praying for may never materialize. The US already has somewhat higher interest rates than other countries — the Fed's benchmark rate is 5.25%- 5.50%. And in Asian economies, where interest rates are already significantly lower than in the US, things could get even messier.
Persons: Tamara, Vasiljev, Peter Schaffrik, Nigel Green, Green, we're Organizations: European Central Bank, Investors, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, JPMorgan, UBS, Bloomberg, of International Finance, Markets, RBC Capital Markets, deVere, Fed, We're, ECB, Bank of, EU, Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada's, Bank of England Locations: stagflation, China, Europe, Japan, South Korea, It's, America, United States, EU, Bank of England, Canada, East Asia
CNN —The US job market showed a softer side in April when just 175,000 jobs were added, marking one of the weakest months in the past three years. It was also well shy of economists’ expectations (for 235,000 jobs added) and sharply lower than the 315,000 net gain for March. A separate report released Thursday showed that fewer job cuts were announced in May than both the month and year before. Foreign-born workers: In addition to high labor force participation rates among prime working age individuals, specifically prime working-age women, the US labor market is benefiting from a boom in immigrant workers. Some of these workforce moves typically come at the end of the school year, meaning the May jobs report and June report could show the effects.
Persons: It’s, we’ve, Elizabeth Crofoot, , aren’t, Crofoot, Dean Baker, that’s, Julia Pollak, , ” Andrew Challenger, Ryan Sweet, CEPR’s Dean Baker Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BLS, Center for Economic, Policy Research, “ Employers, Department of Labor, Challenger, Secondary School Emergency, Oxford Economics Locations: State
CNN —The number of job openings in the US shrank for the second month in a row, setting a new three-year low amid further signals of cooling in the labor market. There were 8.06 million available jobs posted in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released Tuesday. Economists were expecting job openings to register 8.36 million, according to FactSet estimates. Layoffs remain lowIn addition to the decline in job openings, other measures of labor turnover showed minimal movement in April. Second, the labor market is a different animal than it was 10 or 20 years ago.
Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, ” Vanden Houten Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Labor, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve, Federal, JOLTS, Boomers Locations: That’s
When South Africans vote Wednesday, an unhappy combination of rampant corruption, soaring joblessness, crippling power cuts and feeble economic growth will likely be top of mind. Black South Africans, who make up 81% of the population, are at the sharp end of this dire situation. ‘Elite enrichment’Under apartheid — and colonial rule before that — Black South Africans were violently oppressed and denied many basic human rights. Millions of South Africans still live in such informal settlements. “The poster child of this is the electricity sector.”For much of last year, South Africans were without power for at least some portion of the day.
Persons: , Nelson Mandela’s, , Cyril Ramaphosa, Leon Sadiki, BEE, Moeletsi Mbeki, Thabo Mbeki, White, , Tshediso Matona, Anders Pettersson, Black, , Kganki Matabane, Matthew Parks, Matona, Mbeki, Ricardo Hausmann, Jacob Zuma, Haroon Bhorat, Michele Spatari, ” Bhorat, hasn’t, ANC “, Zuma, Ramaphosa, Cas Coovadia, Hausmann Organizations: Johannesburg CNN, National Congress, ANC, World Bank, Oxford Economics, Harvard University, Democratic Alliance, Bloomberg, Getty, South African Institute of International Affairs, Wits University, CNN, , BBEE, Black Business Council, South African Trade Unions, Harvard’s, University of Cape, South Africa’s Free, International Monetary Fund, Fitch, IMF, JPMorgan, Shell, Unilever, Business, Business Unity, Harvard Growth Locations: London, Johannesburg, Sudan, Africa, Alexandra, South Africa, Leon, Isipingo, KwaZulu, Natal, South, , University of Cape Town, loadshedding, Namahadi, Frankfort, Business Unity South Africa
Six US cities have been ranked as having world-leading economic vitality by the Oxford Economics Global Cities Index. But while they perform well on economic factors, the cities fall down on governance and quality of life. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . However, according to the latest Global Cities Index from research group Oxford Economics, six US cities are still the leading "engines of the global economy." This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: , exoduses Organizations: Oxford Economics, Service, Oxford, Dallas, Business Locations: York, Los Angeles, San Jose, Seattle, San Francisco
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's April retail sales data 'a little bit of a blip,' economist saysLouise Loo of Oxford Economics says, however, that a "mild improvement" in consumer confidence can be expected.
Persons: Louise Loo Organizations: Oxford Economics
BEIJING — China reported data Friday that pointed to slower growth on the consumer side while industrial activity remained robust. Retail sales rose by 2.3% in April from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said. That was less than the 3.8% increase forecast by a Reuters poll, and slower than the 3.1% pace reported in March. But fixed asset investment rose by 4.2% for the first four months of the year, lower than the 4.6% expected increase. Statistics bureau spokeswoman Liu Aihua pointed out that last year, the multi-day May 1 Labor Day holiday had included two days in April.
Persons: Liu Aihua, Liu Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, China's Ministry of Commerce, Labor, Statistics, Oxford Locations: Huai'an, China, BEIJING — China
CNN —Last week, travel and tourism industry representatives from more than 150 countries gathered at the annual Arabian Travel Market trade show, held this year in Dubai. There, CNN’s Eleni Giokos spoke with Julia Simpson, president of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), about trends in tourism in the Middle East, and the challenge of making travel more sustainable. We are here in the Middle East — this is the first time I’ve been to the Arabian Travel Market — but what’s interesting is everyone’s telling me they have never, ever seen it this busy. Simpson: Well, the GCC and Middle East is growing faster than any other region. Visitors and delegates at the Arabian Travel Market.
Persons: CNN’s Eleni Giokos, Julia Simpson, I’ve, Simpson, Saud, you’ve, We’ve, we’ve Organizations: CNN, Travel, Tourism Council, Arabian, GCC, Gulf Cooperation, United, Visitors, Oxford Economics Locations: Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Ras Al, Khaimah, United Arab Emirates, Saudi, Arabia, , Saudi Arabia, Oman, East, UAE, Gaza, Egypt
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release data on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment for April on Friday. Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present. The firm expects this week's economic data releases to show a "softening in economic momentum," affirming its forecasts for the central bank to cut rates by the end of June. "Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present," said Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs' China chief economist, in a note Sunday. Businesses' loan demand fallsNew bank loans to businesses and government organizations dropped sharply in April from March, as did new loans to households, according to official data accessed through Wind Information.
Persons: Hui Shan Goldman Sachs, Louise Loo, Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Goldman, RRR, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Visual China, Getty, BEIJING, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Finance, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Information, Clocktower, CNBC Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, China, , Beijing, People's Bank of China
Biden’s tariff plan likely won’t move the needle for monetary policy, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Consumers and producers often pay higher prices when tariffs are implemented.”That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately, consumers. Worse, some businesses appeared to take advantage of the trade war by bumping up prices even higher. Container shipping imports from China to Mexico rocketed higher by 60% in January and 34% for the first quarter, Xeneta data shows. “It’s obvious that imports to this extent are not only for domestic purposes in Mexico,” he said.
Persons: Biden, Joe Brusuelas, Donald Trump’s, Trump, , Ryan Sweet, ” Sweet, Sweet, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Goldman Sachs, , Wells, Nicole Cervi, “ There’s, ” Cervi, Peter Sand, , Sand, “ It’s Organizations: CNN, RSM US, stoke, Oxford Economics, Biden, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Federal, , US International Trade Commission, New, New York Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Republican, ramped, Container Locations: China, New York, , South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Wells, Mexico
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