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"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

☆ BIS' Carstens: too early to say how new war will impact global outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

DALLAS, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens on Sunday said it's "too early to say" how the newly erupted conflict in Israel will affect the global economy still struggling with post-pandemic high inflation. "Traditionally this affects the price of oil and can affect the stock market, but it’s too early to say," Carstens told the National Association for Business Economics in answer to a question after a talk in which he emphasized the need for central banks to keep interest rates relatively high "for a while" to beat inflation. "We need to continue being very firm." Reporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Agustin Carstens, it's, Carstens, Ann Saphir, Diane Craft Organizations: DALLAS, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Israel

Now, however, some firms and experts are walking back those predictions, calling into question the validity of a once-trusted recession indicator known as the yield curve inversion. Nobody rational would argue that the yield curve could have predicted a global pandemic and the short recession that followed it. NABE's most recent survey shows economists are divided on what a yield curve inversion means for the U.S. economy. In normal circumstances, yield curve inversions have been a pretty good indicator of recessions, according to Jebaraj. While the yield curve inverted in 2019, that was not necessarily a predictor of the 2020 recession.

Persons: Mervin, NABE, Goldman Sachs, NABE's Jebaraj, Sam, Jebaraj, — Organizations: Westend61, Getty, National Association for Business Economics, Reserve, Wall, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Center for Business, Economic Research, Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas, Treasury, National Association for Business Locations: U.S

☆ Americans continue to feel better about inflation and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —US consumers have been feeling a whole lot better this summer as inflation has continued to slow. That’s a huge improvement from June 2022, when consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level on record and inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1%. “However, sentiment for lower-income consumers fell.”Indeed, recent data continue to reflect inflation slowing. Consumer spending is the main engine of the economy, accounting for about two-thirds of output, and much of it hinges on the state of the labor market. The Fed certainly wants to see core inflation continue to decelerate, but Powell routinely points to the labor market not being balanced.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, “, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, EY

☆ 3 signs the US economy is set to zoom past growth expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, —, Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina

☆ Top economists do U-turn on recession forecasts as most now see it as unlikely in next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less. It's a turnabout from a March, when a majority saw a recession sometime in 2023. A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics. That includes a sizable chunk who are especially optimistic, with one-fourth saying a recession has a probability of 25% or less. And in the March NABE survey, 58% said the US was either already in a recession or that it would come sometime in 2023.

Persons: It's, Julia Coronado, Steve Eisman, Paul Krugman Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Business conditions are expected to improve as inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —American businesses are expected to fare better in the coming months, according to a survey of economists and analysts released Monday. A survey from the National Association for Business Economics released Monday showed that businesses have rejoiced in better economic conditions. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents reported that wages at their firms were unchanged — the first time more economists reported no wage gains than rising wages since 2021. The Fed doesn’t necessarily need a recession to do that, but some research suggests the labor market must cool further. The labor market is closely watched by Fed officials since higher labor costs feed into inflation.

Persons: haven’t, ”, Julia Coronado, Austan Goolsbee, cooldown, Brian Moynihan, bode Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, National Association for Business, Employers, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Federation of Independent, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.

Persons: That’s, Joe Biden’s, ”, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, “, ” Harker, It’s, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, you’ve, you’d, Dave Gilbertson, hasn’t, Ben Bernanke, ” Jack Macdowell, Louis President James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed’s, Louis, Jerome Powell, there’s, Ian Shepherdson, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association for Business Economics, CNN, Employers, of Labor Statistics, BLS, UKG, The Palisades Group, Hawkish Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, Pantheon Locations: Washington, Washington ,

Harker said he sees promising signs the Fed's rate hikes so far -- five full percentage points since March 2022 -- are having a cooling effect, particularly on housing prices. Uncertainty over inflation dynamics and the pace of credit tightening make him wary of continuing to raise rates. Harker said he expects the economy to grow less than 1% this year, and for the unemployment rate, now at 3.4%, to rise to around 4.4%. He said he could envision the Fed cutting rates if unemployment rises significantly faster, or inflation falls more rapidly, than he currently forecasts. "We don't have to keep moving rates up, and then have to reverse course quickly."

Persons: Patrick Harker, Harker, Corp's, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson

☆ Economists push back expected Fed rate cut to 2024, NABE poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, May 22 (Reuters) - Economists have pushed back their expectations of when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and have raised their forecasts for inflation and the strength of the job market, a survey released on Monday showed. In February, survey respondents saw the Fed cutting rates in the final three months of this year. Respondents upsized their estimate of inflation in 2023, seeing the consumer price index up by 3.3% from the last quarter of 2022 to the final quarter of 2023, according to the survey. In February, respondents expected inflation would be up 3% over the same period. The jobless rate, currently at 3.4%, is projected to average 3.7% this year, down from 3.9% in the February poll.

☆ Economists: US can weather ongoing crises, but recession remains on the table
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In February, the majority of economists said a downturn could start in the first half of the year; now, that’s shifted to the third quarter or later. There was, however, greater consensus on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking counterattack, banking turmoil and debt ceiling uncertainty. “A majority of panelists believes breaching the debt ceiling will not bring on a global financial crisis unless an impasse persists for several weeks. Most respondents believe de-dollarization is not a threat over the foreseeable future.”More than half (55%) of surveyed economists believe the debt ceiling will be raised, 42% believe the debt ceiling will be suspended, while 3% believe the United States will default on its debts. The economists surveyed expect interest rates to remain elevated through the rest of the year, and nearly half expect that the Fed will start cutting rates in the first quarter of next year.

☆ Treasury yields rise as investors await key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at around 3.5715% after rising by around two basis points. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by more than four basis points to 4.1431%. U.S. Treasurys climbed on Friday as investors awaited fresh inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials that could provide hints about future central bank monetary policy. The data could provide hints about whether the economy is cooling and inflationary pressures are easing, which is likely to affect Fed monetary policy. Investors will be scanning fresh comments from Fed officials slated to speak on Friday.

☆ Yellen says US bank rules may be too loose, need to be re-examined
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Mary F. CalvertWASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday that banking regulation and supervisory rules need to be re-examined in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) failures to ensure current banking system risks are addressed. Yellen said a 2018 roll-back of bank capital requirements and stronger supervision for smaller and mid-size banks with assets below $250 billion should be re-examined. She added that regulatory reforms put in place after the 2008 financial crisis have helped the U.S. financial system weather shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic. adding that the financial system was significantly stronger than it was 15 years ago. The multi-regulator Financial Stability Oversight Council's restored Hedge Fund Working Group will continue to monitor risks and develop policy recommendations, Yellen said.

☆ Fed's Collins leans toward one more rate hike then hold for rest of year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Collins said she supported the Fed’s decision last week to raise its overnight target rate by 25 basis points to between 4.75% and 5.00%. That the Fed is not on track for more rate rises owes to troubles in the banking system, which has contributed uncertainty to the monetary policy outlook, the official said. “While the banking system remains strong and resilient, recent developments will likely lead banks to take a somewhat more conservative outlook and tighten lending standards, thus contributing to slowing the economy and reducing inflationary pressures,” Collins said. “These developments may partially offset the need for additional rate increases.”The Fed bank leader said the Fed is monitoring market conditions and “is prepared to use all tools at its disposal in keeping the banking system safe and sound.”In her remarks, Collins said that she views the banking system as resting on solid footing. As the Fed moved toward its last meeting, regional bank failures spurred fears about financial sector liquidity as authorities worked to ease those worries, while banks drew historic amounts of liquidity from the Fed.

☆ Euro zone underlying inflation sticky, ECB's Schnabel says in Washington
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, March 29 (Reuters) - Underlying inflation in the euro zone is proving sticky and the recent fall in energy costs may not pull it down as fast as some expect, European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday, highlighting the bank's chief concern. Overall inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro currency is falling quickly but core prices, which exclude volatile fuel and food costs, is still rising, suggesting rapid price growth could prove durable and difficult to break. Schnabel, head of the ECB's market operations, said last year's energy price spike seeped into the broader economy quickly but the reversal may take longer. Schnabel said the ECB has some flexibility in reaching its 2% target and did not want to create needless pain by acting too quickly. Conservative policymakers have said underlying inflation is now increasingly driven by domestic factors, particularly more expensive services, and they are wary of wage growth, which at 5-6% lags inflation but remains inconsistent with the ECB's 2% inflation target.

☆ Premarket stocks: Commercial real estate is in trouble. Why you should be paying attention
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Economists are growing concerned about the $20 trillion commercial real estate (CRE) industry. After decades of thriving growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. Before the Bell spoke with Xander Snyder, senior commercial real estate economist at First American, to find out. Before the Bell: Why should retail investors pay attention to what’s going on in commercial real estate right now? So the health of the market has an impact on the larger economy, even if you’re not interested in commercial real estate for commercial real estate’s sake.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why the Fed is increasingly flying blind on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But lately, some economists have begun to worry that the data on which Fed officials rely is becoming increasingly inaccurate. That causes more volatility in the incoming data and hence more volatility in markets, economists say. To what extent are declining response rates to surveys actually impacting the data we use? It is absolutely critical for the Fed and markets that the incoming data is as reliable as possible. Those earnings reached what Buffett called a “record” — $30.8 billion in 2022, topping the $27.5 billion in the prior year.

☆ NABE economists still expect a recession this year. The question is when
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 60% of survey respondents said they believe the US had a more than 50% shot of entering a recession in the next 12 months. When such a recession would start was another matter: 28% said first quarter, 33% said second quarter, and 21% said third quarter. Creating some uncertainty among economists, however, is what the Fed might do during that time as well as the potential effect from external factors. NABE economists said they expect unemployment to increase, but the majority doubt it’ll exceed 5%. A mere 2% of respondents said that a “housing market bust” was the greatest downside risk to the US economy in 2023.

☆ American small business pessimism on recession, inflation, isn't relenting
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

That's according to the CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for the first quarter of 2023. The Q1 survey was conducted from Jan. 23-Jan. 30 among over 2,300 small business owners across the country. "Small business owners have a more difficult time gaining benefits of economies of scale," said Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB Research Center, whose own recent surveying of small business owners finds persistent pessimism. The new CNBC|SurveyMonkey data finds 75% of small business owners saying they are still facing rising costs of supplies and just over half (51%) supply chain disruptions. Politics is a factor in Main Street outlook Politics plays a role in any small business survey, with a demographic that skews conservative.

☆ Premarket stocks: Tech earnings could wreck Wall Street's party
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Big Tech earnings are here, and investors are hoping they don’t wreck the good vibes on Wall Street. Three giant tech earnings reports this week — Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA)and Intel (INTC) — could change that. In the year-ago quarter, earnings were $2.48 per share on $51.73 billion in revenue. Still, Wall Street expects Tesla’s earnings to grow, if not at the explosive pace of the past few years. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that tech growth will slow to 9% between 2021 and 2024 while the sales growth of the overall S&P 500 reaches 7%.

☆ NABE survey: Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNABE survey: Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering a recessionCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' to break down the findings from an important new survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics on the nation's economic outlook.

☆ More layoffs are on the way, survey of business economists finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —For the first time since the early days of the pandemic, most business economists expect their companies to cut payrolls in the coming months, according to a new survey released Monday. Just 12% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) anticipate employment will increase at their firms over the next three months, down from 22% this fall. The share of economists expecting payrolls will decline at their companies ticked up to 19%, according to the survey, which was conducted January 4 to January 11. NABE said this is the first time since 2020 that more respondents anticipate shrinking, rather than growing, employment at their firms. The survey found that slightly more than half of the business economists who responded peg the risk of a recession over the next year at 50% or higher, with the biggest risks including higher interest rates and costs.

Wage gains are strong and consumption, the mainstay of U.S. economic growth, continues to increase even after adjusting for inflation. Many factors influence when and if the economy falls into recession; but invariably it will involve rising unemployment and falling consumption. They have telegraphed plans to keep raising interest rates for now as they try to cool the economy and keep prices in check. To date, Fed officials do not feel they have overstepped. "The greatest upside risk is also linked to monetary policy actions," if the Fed navigates the economy to its aimed-for "soft landing" that avoids recession.

☆ Premarket stocks: Jay Powell's dream of the 90s is dead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The robust jobs market is good news for American workers, but concerning for the Federal Reserve and equity bulls alike. “To be clear, strong wage growth is a good thing,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday. “But for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation.” The year-over-year wage growth rate increased to 5.1% in November, more than double that goal. Getting back to a sustainable level of wage growth and tamping inflation will require reducing demand for labor. The dream is over: For the past year, Powell has advanced the optimistic idea that wage growth could be lowered without slowing the economy into recession.

☆ Where the economy is showing signs of a slowdown near recession levels
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The Net Rising Index (NRI) for sales — the percentage of survey respondents reporting rising sales minus the percentage reporting falling sales — peaked at 74% of firms in April 2021. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsThe NABE data has both good and bad news for the Fed and companies. "They are still raising wages and still trying to pass along the higher costs," Coronado said. Sixty-nine percent of respondents to the NABE survey indicated all or some costs are being passed on. … You don't just keep raising rates until the economy cracks," Coronado said of the NABE data.

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