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☆ NABE survey: Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering a recession
  + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNABE survey: Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering a recessionCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' to break down the findings from an important new survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics on the nation's economic outlook.
☆ More layoffs are on the way, survey of business economists finds
  + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —For the first time since the early days of the pandemic, most business economists expect their companies to cut payrolls in the coming months, according to a new survey released Monday. Just 12% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) anticipate employment will increase at their firms over the next three months, down from 22% this fall. The share of economists expecting payrolls will decline at their companies ticked up to 19%, according to the survey, which was conducted January 4 to January 11. NABE said this is the first time since 2020 that more respondents anticipate shrinking, rather than growing, employment at their firms. The survey found that slightly more than half of the business economists who responded peg the risk of a recession over the next year at 50% or higher, with the biggest risks including higher interest rates and costs.
☆ Too good to be bad, too risky to be good, Fed managing 'unloved' economy
  + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Howard Schneider | Thomson Reuters | Covers The U.S. Federal Reserve | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Wage gains are strong and consumption, the mainstay of U.S. economic growth, continues to increase even after adjusting for inflation. Many factors influence when and if the economy falls into recession; but invariably it will involve rising unemployment and falling consumption. They have telegraphed plans to keep raising interest rates for now as they try to cool the economy and keep prices in check. To date, Fed officials do not feel they have overstepped. "The greatest upside risk is also linked to monetary policy actions," if the Fed navigates the economy to its aimed-for "soft landing" that avoids recession.
☆ Premarket stocks: Jay Powell's dream of the 90s is dead
  + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The robust jobs market is good news for American workers, but concerning for the Federal Reserve and equity bulls alike. “To be clear, strong wage growth is a good thing,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday. “But for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation.” The year-over-year wage growth rate increased to 5.1% in November, more than double that goal. Getting back to a sustainable level of wage growth and tamping inflation will require reducing demand for labor. The dream is over: For the past year, Powell has advanced the optimistic idea that wage growth could be lowered without slowing the economy into recession.
☆ Where the economy is showing signs of a slowdown near recession levels
  + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
The Net Rising Index (NRI) for sales — the percentage of survey respondents reporting rising sales minus the percentage reporting falling sales — peaked at 74% of firms in April 2021. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsThe NABE data has both good and bad news for the Fed and companies. "They are still raising wages and still trying to pass along the higher costs," Coronado said. Sixty-nine percent of respondents to the NABE survey indicated all or some costs are being passed on. … You don't just keep raising rates until the economy cracks," Coronado said of the NABE data.
☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed may have changed markets forever
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Federal Reserve officials have clearly stated that they have no plans to pivot away from their policy of aggressive rate hikes to fight persistent inflation. It’s become pointless to try to apply economic rationale to stock markets, Prins told me in a recent interview. Another mandate: The Federal Reserve is mandated to keep unemployment and prices in check, but the third unofficial mandate of the Fed is to boost markets, said Prins. They understand, says Prins, that eventually the Fed will return to its long-term policy of aiding markets. The Federal Reserve has stepped up its efforts to tamp down high prices via a series of blockbuster interest rate hikes.
☆ Corporate economists say recession odds are greater than 50-50
  + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Minneapolis CNN Business —Almost two-thirds of corporate economists believe the United States is already in a recession or will be within the next 12 months, according to the latest survey from the National Association for Business Economics. The survey also showed that sales growth is slowing, wages are rising and capital spending is dropping. The Federal Reserve has stepped up its efforts to tamp down high prices via a series of blockbuster interest rate hikes. A total of 9% of respondents indicated prices were falling, the largest share reported since January 2021. Shortages of raw materials and labor continue to hinder businesses’ operations, according to the survey.
☆ Fed's Brainard says rates to stay restrictive, but attentive to risks
  + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Howard Schneider Ann Saphir | Howard Schneider | Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"There is clarity that monetary policy will be restrictive for some time, until there is confidence inflation comes down. The (Federal Open Market) Committee has said policy rates will increase further," Brainard said. But "we also will be learning as we go and that assessment will reflect incoming data and also risks domestically and globally ... The Fed has raised rates rapidly this year, using three-quarter point increments of late to bring the target federal funds rate to a range between 3% and 3.25%. "We're headed for this four and a half percent-ish federal funds rate by March," Evans said, with little time left for data to shift officials' views.
☆ Premarket stocks: White-collar workers are feeling the brunt of the Fed's rate hikes
  + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Stocks fell sharply as investors evaluated the report, which showed more jobs than expected were added to the US economy and indicated that more pain-inflicting interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve lie ahead. White-collar office workers appear to be feeling the brunt of the Fed’s actions: The financial and business sector saw a large decline in employment last month. What’s happening: The US economy added 263,000 jobs in September, higher than analyst estimates of 250,000. Business support services — such as telemarketing, accounting and administrative and clerical jobs — are also bleeding jobs. Meanwhile, legal services lost 5,000 jobs, and advertising services also dropped 5,000 jobs.
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