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☆ Another Wall Street bank throws in the towel on their 2023 recession call
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan is the latest bank on Wall Street to push out its recession forecast to 2024. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The bank became the latest Wall Street bank to delay its recession forecast to 2024, if it happens at all. Bank of America became the first Wall Street bank earlier last week to delay its 2023 recession forecast. The most recent GDPNow estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta suggests annualized GDP growth of 3.9% in the third-quarter.

Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Not everyone is convinced the US will avoid a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —The case for no US recession is building, but some on Wall Street are cautioning against getting overconfident. That has raised hopes among investors that the United States could avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive pace of interest rate hikes. Still, some investors are maintaining that the US economy could tip into a recession later this year. The index of leading economic indicators is just kind of at an extreme rating. One of the reasons for the rise in equity valuations in recent weeks was the pricing out of recession or economic weakness.

Persons: Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli, ”, Bell, David Donabedian, we’ve, There’s, Catherine Thorbecke, Danielle Romain, Romain, Read, Uno Mattel, Uno Quatro, Ellie Stevens, “ We’re, Ray Adler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase’s, CIBC Private Wealth, Fitch, Google, Trust, Mattel, Uno Locations: New York, United States, New York City

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Financial markets aren’t the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. JPMorgan Chase no longer thinks the U.S. economy will slip into a recession this year. "Given this growth, we doubt the economy will … slip into a mild contraction as early as next quarter," wrote Feroli. CNBC Pro's Sarah Min explains how the Federal Reserve might react, depending on what the price numbers look like.

Persons: nonfarm payrolls, That's, Dow Jones, JPMorgan Chase, Michael Feroli, Sarah Min Organizations: CNBC, Federal, U.S, Nasdaq, Credit Agricole, Maersk, JPMorgan, Apple Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S, Cupertino

☆ JPMorgan raises US economic growth estimate, no longer expects 2023 recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Mike BlakeAug 4 (Reuters) - JPMorgan's chief economist said on Friday the bank is no longer forecasting a U.S. recession this year and has raised its economic growth estimate as the economy expands at a "healthy pace." The firm increased its current-quarter real annualized GDP growth estimate to 2.5% from 0.5%, Michael Feroli wrote in a research note on Friday. And while recession risks are still elevated for next year, Feroli said he expects modest, sub-par growth. Earlier this week, strategists at Bank of America said they no longer forecast a 2024 recession for the U.S. and increased their 2023 economic growth outlook for the country. Still, while a recession is no longer his base case, it could materialize if the Fed is not done hiking rates, Feroli cautioned.

Persons: Mike Blake, Michael Feroli, Feroli, Sinéad Carew, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of America, U.S, Thomson Locations: Encinitas , California, U.S

☆ JPMorgan backs off recession call even with 'very elevated' risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan Chase economists on Friday bailed on their recession call, joining a growing Wall Street chorus that now thinks a contraction is no longer inevitable. "While a recession is no longer our modal scenario, risk of a downturn is still very elevated. "Another way in which recession risks could materialize is if the normal lagged effects of the tightening already delivered kick in." The so-called inverted yield curve has been a reliable recession predictor in data going all the way back to 1959. Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed's economists no longer think a credit contraction will lead to a mild recession this year.

Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Chase, Group, New, New York Fed, Bank of America, Federal Locations: New York

☆ Global shares dip after China data; traders bet on Fed sea change
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

This week's data macro calendar is light and Fed officials are in their "blackout period" ahead of their July policy meeting, leaving investors with the big question of whether last week's market moves will continue or reverse. U.S. stock index futures , erased earlier gains and were down 0.1% ahead of a packed week of corporate earnings. "We expect Fed officials cheered the latest inflation developments, but declaring victory with sub-4% unemployment, and over 4% core inflation, would be reckless." Copper , which is also highly sensitive to Chinese data, dropped 2.5% to $8,458 a ton. Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Michael Brown, Brown, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, disinflation, Michael Feroli, Sterling, Wayne Cole, Lincoln, Christina Fincher Organizations: Global, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Netflix, JPMorgan, Reuters, Treasury, Bank of England, CBA, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, Libya, Sydney

☆ Asia shares struggle as China fails to stimulate
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China reported economic growth of 0.8% in the second quarter, above the 0.5% forecasted, while the annual pace slowed more than expected to 6.3%. That followed figures out over the weekend showed China's new home prices were unchanged in June, the weakest result this year. "Markets have already adjusted lower their expectations (for stimulus), and our base case is that there won't be a substantial package." MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.3%, though that follows a 5.6% rally last week. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off a fraction, but that followed hefty gains last week.

Persons: Carol Kong, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, disinflation, Michael Feroli, Sterling, Brent, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, FTSE, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Netflix, JPMorgan, ., Bank of England, CBA, Thomson Locations: Japan, China, SYDNEY, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Libya

☆ Asia shares slip as China data underwhelms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China reported economic growth of 0.8% in the second quarter, above the 0.5% forecasted, while the annual pace slowed more than expected to 6.3%. Industrial output topped forecasts with a rise of 4.4%, while retail sales missed by a tick at 3.1%. That followed figures out over the weekend showed China's new home prices were unchanged in June, the weakest result this year. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.2%, though that follows a 5.6% rally last week. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off 0.1%, but that followed hefty gains last week.

Persons: Carol Kong, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, disinflation, Michael Feroli, Sterling, Brent, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, FTSE, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Netflix, JPMorgan, ., Thomson Locations: Japan, China, SYDNEY, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Libya

☆ Asia shares brace for China data to disappoint
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Figures out over the weekend showed China's new home prices were unchanged in June, the weakest result this year. The risk of even softer outcomes kept MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) down 0.2%, though that follows a 5.6% rally last week. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both down 0.2%, but that followed hefty gains last week. PRICED FOR 2024 POLICY EASINGAs a result, markets still imply around a 96% chance of the Fed hiking to 5.25-5.5% this month, but only around a 25% probability of yet a further rise by November. Early Monday, Brent was off 58 cents at $79.29 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 55 cents to $74.87.

Persons: Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, disinflation, Michael Feroli, Sterling, Brent, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: Tesla, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Netflix, JPMorgan, ., Thomson Locations: Japan, China, SYDNEY, Beijing, Asia, Pacific

☆ Asian shares rally, dollar slides on bets Fed almost done hiking
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.5%, bolstered by a 2.1% jump in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) and a 1.4% gain in Australia's resources-heavy shares (.AXJO). Overnight, the much-watched U.S. consumer inflation report provided better news than markets had hoped for. In particular, core inflation, which the Fed has feared to be sticky, also showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown. Elsewhere, oil prices settled near the highest in two months on a soft U.S. dollar. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $80.29 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.2 at $75.88.

Persons: Li Qiang, Michael Feroli, Bonds, Alan Ruskin, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Index, Fed, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, FedWatch, U.S, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Canada, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli on Fed's Beige Book
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli on Fed's Beige BookMichael Feroli, J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Beige Book and cool CPI report and what they mean for market outlook.

Persons: Morgan's Michael Feroli, Michael Feroli, Morgan Organizations: J.P Locations: J.P

☆ Inflation data looks like a move in the right direction, says J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation data looks like a move in the right direction, says J.P. Morgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Beige Book and cooling CPI report and what they mean for market outlook.

Persons: Morgan's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli, Morgan Locations: J.P

☆ Indicators show bank credit tightening hitting small businesses, says JPM's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndicators show bank credit tightening hitting small businesses, says JPM's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss conflicting signals coming out of the economy, gradual slowing in the labor market, and rates repricing Fed expectations.

Persons: JPM's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli

LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - World stocks rose to a two-week peak on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei closing at its highest level in 33 years, drawing support from signs that cooling inflation might temper central banks' appetite to further hike rates. U.S. data on Friday, which hinted towards cooling inflation, helped bolster gains in the tech sector and underpinned sentiment in world stocks. MSCI's world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.25% to its highest level in just over two weeks, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index also hit a two-week peak (.STOXX). Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 5% last quarter while much of the developed world rallied. Key U.S. data this week include closely watched surveys on manufacturing and services, job openings and the June payrolls report.

Persons: Seema Shah, Jan von Gerich, May's, Michael Feroli, Brent, Dhara Ranasinghe, Wayne Cole, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, David Evans, Mark Potter Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, Apple, Frankfurt, Bank of, Key, JPMorgan, Fed, Thomson Locations: Asia, London, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sydney

☆ Nikkei leads Asia higher, China lags behind
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China's factory activity slowed in June as the Caixin manufacturing survey showed a dip to 50.5, from 50.9 in May. China's central bank has promised more "forceful" action to support the economy and looks likely to soon get a new boss. Something major is needed given Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 5% last quarter while much of the developed world rallied. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained 1.2%, though it was still lagging far behind Japan's market. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were steady ahead of the July 4 holiday, having gained more than 6% in June.

Persons: Tesla, May's, Michael Feroli, wouldn't, Brent, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Nikkei, ANZ, Sino, Bank of Japan, FTSE, Nasdaq, BofA, Apple, Microsoft, JPMorgan, Fed, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia, Lincoln

☆ Nikkei leads Asia higher, China data underwhelms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China's factory activity slowed in June as the Caixin manufacturing survey showed a dip to 50.5, from 50.9 in May. China's central bank has promised more "forceful" action to support the economy and looks likely to soon get a new boss. Something major is needed given Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 5% last quarter while much of the developed world rallied. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were steady ahead of the July 4 holiday, having gained more than 6% in June. Important U.S. data this week includes closely watched surveys on manufacturing and services, job openings and the June payrolls report.

Persons: Tesla, May's, Powell, Michael Feroli, Brent, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing, Himani Organizations: Nikkei, ANZ, Sino, Bank of Japan, FTSE, Nasdaq, BofA, Apple, Microsoft, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia

☆ Jobs report: What to expect from the May data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

But despite all that, the labor market has kept humming right along. And that’s largely expected to be the case, again, in Friday’s monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private sector employment increased by 278,000 jobs in May, according to ADP’s monthly National Employment Report, frequently seen as a proxy for the government’s official number. Labor turnover data released Wednesday showed that the US employment market remained tight in April. The government’s May jobs report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Persons: ” Daniel Zhao, that’s, ” Julia Pollak, “, Pollak, ”, Michael Feroli, Matthew Martin, ” Pollak, it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “, ”, Commerce Department, CNN, Labor, JPMorgan, Oxford Economics, Challenger, Conference Locations: Minneapolis, April’s

☆ We could see a rate hike in two weeks: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe could see a rate hike in two weeks: JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what we could anticipate from the Fed's meeting and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Consumer spending jumped 0.8% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, would rise 0.4%. Adjusting for inflation, consumer spending shot up 0.5% after being unchanged in March. Consumer spending is being supported by strong wage gains in a tight labor market. The current pace of consumer spending is, however, unlikely to be sustained as Americans grow weary of inflation.

☆ A debt default would be 'much worse than a government shutdown', says J.P.Morgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA debt default would be 'much worse than a government shutdown', says J.P.Morgan's Michael FeroliJimmy Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute & Michael Feroli, J.P.Morgan chief economist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss teh ongoing debt ceiling debate, the impending deadline, and what it could all mean for the U.S. economy.

☆ What to expect from the jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —If the latest employment trends continue and economists’ forecasts prove true, Friday’s jobs report could bring back that pre-pandemic feeling. Economists expect the US economy to have added 180,000 jobs in April, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv. It could also hammer home the fact that the US labor market has indeed cooled down from its red-hot recovery over the past two years. What a rising unemployment rate meansEconomists are expecting the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5%, according to Refinitiv. Mixed signalsPayroll processor ADP’s monthly look at private-sector employment activity, released two days before the BLS’ employment report, is sometimes looked at as a preview of what to expect from the federal data.

New data for March showed the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed job seekers fell for the fourth consecutive month and hit the lowest level since October 2021. At roughly 1.64 to 1 the number remains far above the levels around 1.2 seen before the pandemic. In recent months the relationship between job openings and unemployment has kept that prospect alive. The number of estimated job openings has fallen from a peak of 12 million in March of 2022 to 9.59 million in March this year. The openings rate, expressed as a percentage of filled and available positions, has fallen from a high of 7.4 last spring to 5.8 in March.

☆ Strong US consumer spending seen driving economy in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.0% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter. Estimates ranged from a growth rate of 0.4% to a 3.3% pace. DOWNSIDE RISKSome institutions cut their GDP growth estimates, with Wells Fargo slashing its forecast by a full percentage point. Still, consumer spending is expected to have grown at a pace faster than the pedestrian 1.0% rate logged in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to be driven by demand for services.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPM's Michael Feroli on recession risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPM's Michael Feroli on recession risksJPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss disinflation without recession, the potential for a resurgence of stress in the banking system, and Fed policy plans for 2023.

☆ Still expect economy to hit mild recession later in 2023, says JPM's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStill expect economy to hit mild recession later in 2023, says JPM's Michael FeroliJPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss disinflation without recession, the potential for a resurgence of stress in the banking system, and Fed policy plans for 2023.

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