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Both readings were 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus. The annual inflation rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than August. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.3% on the month, putting the annual rate at 3.3%. Both core readings also were 0.1 percentage point above forecast. After a half percentage point reduction in September, the central bank is expected to continue cutting, though the pace and degree remain in question.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Locations: Greenbrae , California, U.S
Indexes slipped Thursday as investors priced in a higher-than-expected inflation reading. The data raises the possibility of a "no landing" scenario for the US economy. AdvertisementStocks fell on Thursday from records reached in the previous session, as traders took in a sticky inflation reading for September. September consumer price index data released on Thursday showed inflation rose 2.4% year-over-year, slightly above consensus forecasts of a 2.3% rise. AdvertisementThe core CPI reading, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, was up 3.3% year-over-year and just above forecasts of 3.2%.
Persons: , Stocks, Hurricane Milton, Jamie Dimon, Buffett Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, CPI, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Investors, Labor Department, Here's, Insurance Locations: Hurricane
Indexes dipped Thursday as investors took in hotter-than-expected inflation data. Traders see the latest data solidifying odds of a 25 basis point rate cut next month. AdvertisementUS stocks edged lower on Thursday as investors took in slightly hotter-than-expected inflation data after last week's blockbuster jobs report. The core CPI reading, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 3.3% year-over-year, slightly above forecasts of 3.2% and 0.3% higher than the August reading. JPMorgan's top strategist, one of Wall Street's biggest bears, is turning upbeat on the stock market for the first time in two years.
Persons: , Milton, Bill Gross Organizations: Traders, Service, CPI, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Labor Department, FEMA, Hurricanes Locations: Here's
Pittsburgh CNN —In the years that Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dave McCormick led one of the world’s largest hedge funds, the firm bet millions of dollars against some of the state’s biggest and most iconic companies, financial filings show. For financial institutions, short positions can be lucrative. The fund shorted about four dozen companies from Pennsylvania during McCormick’s tenure, the records show. The fund did invest in stocks of some of the same Pennsylvania companies it shorted in other years, and overall, it reported spending more money buying stocks of Pennsylvania companies than shorting them in four of the five annual reports reviewed by CNN. She argued that the short positions Bridgewater took in Pennsylvania companies didn’t negatively impact employees because they represented a small fraction of each company’s overall value.
Persons: Dave McCormick, McCormick, , , Kevin Boltz, Democratic Sen, Bob Casey –, Casey, Luke Sharrett, Elizabeth Gregory, Dave, ” Gregory, Bridgewater, ” McCormick wasn’t, Andrew Jennings, Dan Mallinson, “ They’re, ” Mallinson, “ That’s, ” Eric Talley, Talley, I’m, Justin Merriman, McCormick’s, Biden, Bernie Hall, ” Hall, Gregory, Michael M, Eric Hovde of, Tim Sheehy, Bernie Moreno, dogging McCormick, Mallinson Organizations: Pittsburgh CNN —, Bridgewater Associates, The Hershey Company, US Steel, CNN, US Department of Labor, Republican, Hershey, Democratic, Bridgewater, Bloomberg, Getty, McCormick’s, Bridgewater Equity Fund, Labor, Securities and Exchange Commission, Comcast, Penn National Gaming, Emory University School of Law, Penn State, Columbia University, Steel, Japan's, Nippon Steel, Keystone, Nippon, Pennsylvania, United Steelworkers, Senate, Penn Locations: Pennsylvania, Bridgewater, Harrisburg, Pittsburgh, China, Eric Hovde of Wisconsin, Montana, Ohio
Federal Reserve policymakers have been breathing easier lately regarding inflation, and that faith that they're closer to achieving their goal will get a key test Thursday. Specifically, the Labor Department's reading is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 2.2% and a monthly gain of just 0.1%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. However, following a much better than expected jobs report for September, Fed officials in recent days have indicated a likely more measured approach to cuts ahead. Details in Thursday's report will matter: Housing inflation has proven to be stubborn, though policymakers still expect lower rent renewals to feed into the data the months progress. The report hits just after the S & P 500 rose to a new record on Wednesday.
Persons: Dow Jones, Lorie Logan, Logan Organizations: Labor Department, Labor, Dallas
Paul Bersebach | Medianews Group | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineOh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September's jobs number. That's perhaps why stocks rose only tentatively on its release. For the week, S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow ticked up 0.09% and the Nasdaq increased 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday's close.
Persons: SPX, Paul Bersebach, payrolls, David Royal, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Medianews, Getty, CNBC, U.S . Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Labor Locations: Lake Forest , CA, , Thursday's
Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
  + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineOh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September's jobs number. That's perhaps why stocks rose only tentatively on its release. For the week, S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow ticked up 0.09% and the Nasdaq increased 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday's close.
Persons: Angus Mordant, payrolls, David Royal, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: HK UBI, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, U.S . Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Labor Locations: Albany, Latham , New York, , Thursday's
watch nowThe U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point. Strength in job creation spilled over to wages, as average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago. You get upward revisions and it tells you the job market continues to be healthy, and that means the economy is healthy."
Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Organizations: Labor Department, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
CNBC's Jim Cramer reviewed next week's top market-moving action, highlighting new consumer price index data and a slew of earnings reports as the season begins, including ones from Delta , Domino's and several major banks. The labor department will release September's CPI report on Thursday, and Cramer said investors who want a rate cut are hoping for a cool number. Friday brings the producer price index report, and like the CPI, this data will be a metric for the Fed's next decision, Cramer said. Big ticket financial earnings will also come out that day, including Wells Fargo , JPMorgan and Blackrock . He said banks represent the least expensive group on the market, and investors should use any weakness to buy them.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, he's, Delta, Tesla Organizations: Wall, PepsiCo, General Motors, Federal, Big Tech, AMD, HP Enterprise, Big, JPMorgan, Blackrock Locations: Delta, Domino's, Wells Fargo
Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86. If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could surge 161% to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. AdvertisementInvestors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Biden, , Joe Biden, retaliating, Biden's, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Economists, Jensen Huang, Blackwell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Israel, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Costco Locations: Israel, Iran
Treasury yields rise as attention shifts to jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over two basis points to 3.8056%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.6539% after rising by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Thursday as investors looked to the latest labor market insights and considered the state of the economy. Investors assessed the state of the economy as attention turned to the latest jobs data. Figures from ADP on Wednesday showed that private payrolls grew by more than expected in September, with private companies adding 143,000 jobs.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Investors, U.S . Labor, Federal Reserve
Indexes edged lower Thursday as investors assessed jobless claims and geopolitical tensions. On Friday, investors will get a fresh labor market update from the September nonfarm payrolls report. AdvertisementUS stocks inched lower on Thursday, fueled by an uptick in jobless claims ahead of a key jobs report and continued tensions in the Middle East. Analysts say the report will likely have a big influence on both markets and the Fed in the coming weeks. Advertisement"We think a soft employment report is likely to generate a larger market response vs a strong labor report," Bank of America analysts said in a Wednesday report.
Persons: , Israel Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Israel, Federal, Bank of America, Trump, RBC Locations: Iran
"The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. Looking for cluesStill, markets will in fact be watching the report closely. At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Katie Nixon, We've, there's, David Kelly, Helene —, JPMorgan's Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Trust Wealth Management, Labor Department, Asset Management, Labor Statistics Locations: Albany, Latham , New York
CNN —September’s jobs report, due out Friday morning, is expected to show that the US labor market has slowed somewhat but remains on solid footing. While September’s employment data is expected to stay relatively tame, the same can’t be said for the October jobs report, which is set to be released on November 1, just days before the presidential election. The strikes and hurricane-related effects “are not going to permanently alter the trajectory of the labor market; but September is probably our last clean reading on the labor market for a while,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told CNN earlier this week. The August jobs report, which showed better-than-expected estimated 142,000 payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate, went a long way to quell those fears. It showed that the jobs market is in “stasis,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note issued Tuesday.
Persons: bode, Lydia Boussour, ” Ryan Sweet, Helene, , Erica Groshen, They’ve, , Andrew Challenger, Wells, Noah Yosif, ’ Sweet, Ejindu Ume, “ We’re, ” Ume Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Gulf Coasts, Oxford Economics, of Labor Statistics, Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Employers, Challenger, Labor Department, Pantheon, Labor, BLS, , American Staffing Association, Oxford, Miami University in Locations: EY, Hurricane, East, Gulf, Miami University in Ohio
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was last up by 2 basis points at 3.766%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last less than 1 basis point higher at 3.625%. Treasury yields were last higher on Wednesday as investors weighed the state of the U.S. economy and considered the latest developments in the Middle East. Powell also said that the recent 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed should not be taken as a signal that the central bank will continue cutting rates aggressively. Treasury yields had pulled back Tuesday as investors looked to them for safety among the developments in the region.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S . Labor, Federal Reserve, Investors, Tuesday Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel, Lebanon
It's no secret the labor market is pretty brutal for a lot of job-seekers today, and the contentious election cycle could be making it worse. Online, candidates say they're sending out applications en masse without much luck. Meanwhile, businesses are slowing their hiring initiatives as they brace for uncertainty around the results of the November presidential elections, according to hiring experts. Businesses may be even more cautious than ever given "the change of of primary candidates at the 11th hour" that could be "making companies more hesitant to know what's coming ahead of time." This could disproportionately impact hiring at companies that do business internationally, Boggs says, as well as the search for senior leadership candidates.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Debra Boggs, who's, Boggs Organizations: Labor Department, U.S, Management
Private sector hiring picked up in September, indicating the labor market is holding its ground despite some signs of weakness, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. While hiring increased, the rate of pay growth took another step down. The ADP count comes two days ahead of the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show growth of 150,000, following August's disappointing showing of 142,000, of which 118,000 came from private sector hiring. While the ADP report serves as a precursor to the official count, the two can differ, sometimes by wide margins. In a speech Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized the labor market as "solid" while noting that it has "clearly cooled" over the past year.
Persons: Dow Jones, switchers, Job, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Companies, Labor, Federal Reserve
Ultimately, the slow starts to August and September did not stand in the way of Wall Street recording a strong third quarter . Tech woes : The S & P 500 tech sector is having a rough day on several different fronts. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, There's, Elliott Hill, John Donahoe, Lamb Weston, we'll, Slim Jim, Hunt's, Orville Redenbacher's, We're, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, ., Stocks, Federal Reserve, Coterra Energy, Tech, Apple, Citigroup, HP Inc, CDW Corp, Citi, Samsung Electronics, Nvidia, Broadcom, Energy, Nike, Maine Foods, Labor, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: East, Iran, Israel, China
The maritime alliance represents the major shipping lines, all of which are foreign owned, as well as terminal operators and port authorities. Depending on the length of the strike, there could be shortages of consumer and industrial goods, which could then lead to price hikes. What could be in short supplyThe ports involved include the Port of New York and New Jersey, the nation’s third-largest port by volume of cargo handled. Port Wilmington in Delaware describes itself as the nation’s leading banana port, bringing in a large share of America’s favorite fruit. The union has pledged to continue to handling military cargo even during a strike and said passenger ships won’t be affected.
Persons: , ” Harold Daggett, containerization, John McCown, Biden, , Joe Biden, Taft, Hartley, George W, Bush, Julie Su, Peter Buttigieg, Lael Brainard, ” Biden, ” CNN’s Arlette Saenz Organizations: New, New York CNN, Gulf Coasts, International Longshoremen’s Association, ILA, United States Maritime Alliance, American Farm Bureau, , Business, Labor, National Economic Council, CNN, Union, Labor Department Locations: New York, Gulf, Maine, Texas, of New York, New Jersey, Port Wilmington, Delaware, Port, Baltimore, West Coast, Taft
And it’ll be tough for either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump to turn that around if elected, no matter their grandiose campaign promises. Put together, such investments have resulted in a sharp pick-up in construction spending by manufacturers, according to government data. Manufacturing’s main pain points are sluggish demand and elevated interest rates, according to recent manufacturing surveys by the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global. And, of course, there are issues specific to certain sectors of the manufacturing industry. It could get better, but it’s not clear whenIt’s not all doom and gloom for the manufacturing industry.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Biden, haven’t, hasn’t, Harris, ” Harris, Trump, ” Chris Williamson, ” Timothy Fiore, There’s, ” Lauren Goodwin, Organizations: Washington CNN, Act, Congress, Private, Manufacturers, Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, P, P Global Market Intelligence, ISM’s Manufacturing, Survey, P Global, Boeing, Federal, New York Life Investments Locations: America, Pittsburgh, Savannah, China, Pennsylvania, Korea, North Carolina, Germany, Georgia
Indexes rallied Thursday on positive jobs data and promises of further economic stimulus in China. AdvertisementUS stocks rallied on Thursday, fueled by China stimulus measures and positive jobs data to pare losses from yesterday. The indexes rallied after leaders in China pledged to support the economy with more strong policy measures. The indexes' gains were also fueled by positive labor market data. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP came in unrevised at a 3% annualized rate, according to data released Thursday.
Persons: , Eric Jackson, SocGen Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: China, unrevised
The stock market runs a bigger risk of an unsustainable melt-up, according to Ed Yardeni. AdvertisementStocks run the risk of seeing an unsustainable, dot-com style melt-up, thanks to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. That move sparked a rally in stocks to fresh records —but it's also raised the odds of a stock market melt-up, he said, meaning investors are now facing the risk of an unsustainable market boom. And while inflation has cooled from its highs several years ago, it is still a risk, Yardeni noted. Advertisement"If they get to overheat the economy and get to create a bubble in the stock market, yeah they're creating some issues," Yardeni added.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, , Stocks, it's, Yardeni, Michelle Bowman, haven't Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Yardeni, Labor Department, Atlanta Fed
Mortgage rates for September 21, 2024, are around 5.70%, according to Zillow data. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Mortgage Refinance Rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates have increased slightly and are hovering around 5.70%, according to Zillow data. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed is expected to cut rates soon, mortgage rates have trended down.
Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: Labor Department, Zillow, Fed, Mortgage, Association, ARM, . Government Locations: Chevron, Government
We will ultimately eliminate the federal Department of Education,” he said earlier this month during a rally in Wisconsin. Previously, federal education programs were housed in other agencies. Ending the department may not eliminate federal education fundingFederal funding programs for K-12 schools that help support the education of students from low-income families and children with disabilities predated the creation of the Department of Education. Calls to abolish the Department of Education or merge it with another federal agency are not new. When Trump was president, his administration proposed merging the Education and Labor departments into one federal agency.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , I’m, , ” Trump, Kamala Harris, ” Harris, Jimmy Carter, Pell, Joe Biden’s, Frederick Hess, Marguerite Roza, ” Roza, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Washington CNN —, Department of Education, of Education, Democratic National Convention, National Education Association, Department, Education’s, IDEA, Civil, Joe Biden’s Department of Education, Obama, Education, American Enterprise Institute, , Georgetown University, Brookings Institution, Republican, Labor, Republicans Locations: Wisconsin, Georgia, Israel
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