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The forecasts seem at odds as higher rates raise the credit costs that can crimp the economy. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of global equity performance and stocks on Wall Street bounced back while Treasury yields, which move inversely to price, retreated. Yields on two- and 10-year notes remained inverted at -68.3 basis points as the shorter-dated note yields more than the longer one. MSCI's all-world country index for stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.14%, but the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.31%. Oil prices rose as renewed global supply concerns from Russia's fuel export ban countered demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and higher interest rates.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Marvin Loh, Joe LaVorgna, SMBC, Brent, Craig Ebert, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Marguerita Choy, Rashmi Aich, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank, Japan, Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Investors, Bank of England, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Asia, Japan, China, Sweden, Norway, BNZ, Wellington

☆ This is a ‘distorted environment’ for investors, warns fmr. White House economist Joe LaVorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is a ‘distorted environment’ for investors, warns fmr. White House economist Joe LaVorgnaJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to talk current market risks, the probability of a recession and more.

Persons: fmr, Joe LaVorgna Joseph LaVorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities America

☆ Market reactions to Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

"It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," Powell said. "August has been a difficult month for the market, so it is hungry for news that will help reverse the trend. Investors are hanging on to every word, but the main takeaway is that Powell signaled that the Fed would raise rates if needed. Rather than last year's short but brutal speech, Powell opted for a longer and calmer speech. KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO"On balance, this is a modestly less hawkish speech than markets had feared.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, CHRISTOPHER HODGE, MICHAEL GREEN, ANDRE BAKHOS, CARSTEN BRZESKI, Ann Saphir, Christine, Lagarde, ” JOSEPH LAVORGNA, “, ” STUART COLE, ” QUINCY KROSBY, there's, DAVID WAGNER, Jackson, BRIAN JACOBSEN, patting, KARL SCHAMOTTA, Bernanke, Draghi Organizations: U.S . Federal, Federal, NFP, Fed, ING, Kansas City, REUTERS, CHIEF, CPI, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, JERSEY, FRANKFURT, Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, NIKKO, LONDON, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI , OHIO, WISCONSIN, TORONTO

☆ Powell's pivotal speech Friday could see a marked shift from what he's done in the past
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"I just think he's going to play it about as down the middle as possible," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. "He's got to strike that chord that the Fed is going to finish the job. "He's going to want to be a little more hawkish than neutral. But he's not going to deliver what he delivered last year. A Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August's figures will show a noticeable jump.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, Joseph LaVorgna, circumspect, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, He's, It's, Quincy Krosby, he's, Inflation's, Krosby, Patrick Harker, you've, Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson Organizations: Financial, Federal, Getty, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Research, National Economic Council, LPL, Cleveland, San Francisco Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington , DC, circumspect Powell

☆ All of the economic momentum is pointing to the downside, says top economist Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAll of the economic momentum is pointing to the downside, says top economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, recession fears, the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, and more.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna, Jackson Organizations: Nikko Securities America Locations: U.S

That would be a lag of eight months, significantly longer than the average gap between last hike and first cut going back decades. "In the past markets have tended to underestimate how high rates are raised and underestimate how low rates are cut. Inflation targeting, more sophisticated financial markets, transparent central bank communications, and greater central bank autonomy since the 1990s have all contributed as well. Brazil's central bank, one of the first to raise rates in early 2021, has started cutting them after a 12-month pause. Current market pricing suggests that will not come until 2025, which would be an even longer lag.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Joe Lavorgna, BoE, Milton Friedman's, Jamie McGeever, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Bank of, Reuters, The Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: New, New York City, U.S, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO , Florida, Brazil's

☆ Rally setback: Top economist Joe LaVorgna sees key inflection point ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRally setback: Top economist Joe LaVorgna sees key inflection point aheadJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America Chief Economist, joins 'Fast Money' to help make sense of market moves with the economy, Fed, GDP and markets. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the FM Traders.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna, Joseph LaVorgna, Melissa Lee Organizations: Nikko Securities America, FM Traders

If the U.S. economy has a "soft landing" - no recession this year with inflation near target, and only a mild downturn next year with unemployment staying historically low - Jerome Powell may lay claim to being the most successful Fed chief in history. Powell was frequently on the receiving end of public lashings from his then boss - "Clueless," "horrendous lack of vision" and "pathetic!" "Kudos to Powell if he can achieve a soft landing. Greenspan, dubbed 'the Maestro' by his admirers, was Fed chief from 1987 to 2006. Not only that, his 36% rating was the lowest of any Fed chair since the survey series began in 2001.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Yellen, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Volcker, Greenspan, Joe LaVorgna, Alan Blinder, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Joe, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Powell's, Republican, Nikko Securities, Trump White House, Reuters, New York Fed, Gallup, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

☆ Recession worries are likely to carry over into the second half of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

LaVorgna is in the camp that says it will be difficult if not impossible for the U.S. to avoid at least a modest period of negative growth in the second half. "The only way we won't have a deep recession is if the Fed has the courage to ease very quickly." "The second half will be difficult. And if history is any guide, the strength that has marked the first half of the year likely will carry over into the second half. In years when the index gained more than 10% in the first half, the second half usually sees double the normal second-half return, according to CFRA.

Persons: Joseph LaVorgna, Trump, LaVorgna, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, hasn't, CFRA, Sam Stovall, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities America, Fed, Market Committee, Atlanta, Moody's, University of Michigan, Treasury, Pantheon Locations: U.S, nonfarm payrolls, Friday's

☆ The Fed might cut rates this year if the U.S. gets weak employment data, says SMBC's Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed might cut rates this year if the U.S. gets weak employment data, says SMBC's Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America, joins 'Fast Money' to discuss the possibility of a recession, recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and what would need to happen in order for the Fed to cut rates.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nikko Securities America, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with SMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with SMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, former NEC chief economist and SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, whether a hike or pause in rates is more likely this month, and more.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna Organizations: SMBC Nikko Securities, NEC, Nikko Securities America

☆ Here's what to watch out for in Friday's jobs report for May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesWatching the monthly jobs reports this year has been something of a waiting exercise, with economists and market participants looking for a downturn that never seems to arrive. But judging by the way these reports have been going, the risk is probably to the upside in a jobs market that has been nothing if not resilient. "The labor market still looks tight. Defying the FedThe tight labor market and the pressure that has put on wages and inflation has bedeviled the Federal Reserve. A 'fully staffed' jobs market?

Persons: Joe Raedle, Dow Jones, We're, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, payrolls, we're, Donald Trump, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Labor Department, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, Federal Reserve Locations: Miami , Florida

☆ The Fed is making a classic policy mistake, says top economist Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is making a classic policy mistake, says top economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, former NEC chief economist and SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, whether a hike or pause in rates is more likely this month, and more.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna Organizations: NEC, Nikko Securities America

Lending standards, which were already at levels consistent with past recessions, according to several indicators in the most recent 'SLOOS' and NFIB surveys, will only tighten further. Although tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation, recession can still be avoided. A separate NFIB banking survey published this week shows small business owners are not hitting the panic button just yet, but concern is growing. "Small business owners are, not surprisingly, concerned about the stability of the banking system. A strong small business banking system is essential for small business owners to operate and grow their business," Holly Wade, executive director of NFIB's Research Center said.

☆ Instant View: US March PCE price index shows high, but cooling, inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gained 0.1% in March after rising 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PCE price index increased 4.2% after climbing 5.1% in February. "Will the Fed raise rates at the May meeting. I don't think it'll influence them one way or another but we expect them to raise rates again. I don’t think it’s going to impact the Fed much if at all.

☆ U.S. dollar firms as inflation data backs Fed hike; yen plunges
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's value against six major currencies, rose 0.2% to 101.65. Friday's data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index edged 0.1% higher in March after rising 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PCE price index increased 4.2% after climbing 5.1% in February. The so-called core PCE price index gained 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in March after rising 4.7% in February. Following the inflation data, the rate futures market has priced in a 90% chance of a 25 basis-point hike next week.

☆ Here's why a recession is likely to happen this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why a recession is likely to happen this yearJoe LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities chief economist, and Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate hikes, and more.

Deposits have fled small banks at a record pace, the availability of credit for small businesses is deteriorating rapidly, and these firms are increasingly reluctant to hire workers or expand. The relationship between these thousands of banks and millions of small businesses runs deep, and is critical to the health of the economy at large. And so is wider GDP, when you bear in mind that small businesses account for around 40% of all jobs. Small banks will probably tighten credit standards further, limiting a key source of funding for small businesses - many of which are riskier borrowers and key customers for these banks. "Because small banks are likely to tighten credit more aggressively and small businesses disproportionately borrow from them, the hit to lending to small businesses will likely be larger," they wrote on Monday.

☆ Wall Street meanders, dollar gains as Fed rate hike seen in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"My sense is that the labor market and CPI would favor the Fed raising rates again. However, what has made the market have second thoughts is the extent of the tightening of lending." The dollar index rose 0.52% and the two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, added 4.2 basis points to 4.014%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.10% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 0.03%. The dollar extended gains against the yen to 133.87 , the highest since March 15, on receding expectations of a near-term tweak to Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

☆ Fed needs to see people coming into the labor force, says economist Betsey Stevenson
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed needs to see people coming into the labor force, says economist Betsey StevensonJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, and Betsey Stevenson, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, join CNBC's "Squawk Box" discuss Friday’s jobs report.

☆ One year after the first rate hike, the Fed stands at policy crossroads
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"That being said, given the fact the Fed has tightened as aggressively as they have, the economy is still very good." But recent days have shown the Fed has another problem on its hands besides inflation. watch nowBecause prices fall when rates go up, the Fed hikes have cut into the market value of those fixed income holdings. Rate hike expected"If you're waiting for inflation to go back to 2% and that's what's caused you to raise rates, you're making a mistake," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. Since the rate increases started, depositors have pulled $464 billion from banks, according to Fed data.

☆ Here's why the Fed should pause rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why the Fed should pause rate hikesSMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe Lavorgna, Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, and Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Partners chairman and CEO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the February CPI data and upcoming Fed announcement.

☆ Top economist Joe Lavorgna: Fed is making a classic policy mistake by constantly raising rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTop economist Joe Lavorgna: Fed is making a classic policy mistake by constantly raising ratesSMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe Lavorgna joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what's ahead for the economy, why the 10-year treasury yield hasn't moved, and more.

☆ Stocks likely to retest October lows due to weakening economy, says Nikko's Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStocks likely to retest October lows due to weakening economy, says Nikko's Joe LavorgnaNikko Securities' Joe Lavorgna makes sense of today's market reaction to hot economic data. With CNBC's Sara Eisen and the Fast Money traders, Mike Khouw, Guy Adami and Jeff Mills.

U.S. credit card borrowing rates have never been higher and bank lending standards are at recession levels. Many of his colleagues have doubled down on their view that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer. The average U.S. credit card rate is now higher than it has been in at least half a century. This is easily the highest since the comparable data series was started in 2007.chart"It's triple trouble: credit card rates are at record highs, balances are up 15% over the past year, and more people are carrying credit card debt," said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com. "Credit card debt is one of those things that's easy to get into and hard to get out of," he said.

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