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☆ Hopes for a Fed pause bolster risk rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Traders are putting a 95% probability on the Fed standing pat on Wednesday, a consensus so strong the Fed will almost certainly respect. The focus for investors will be on the statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for signs on whether it will be a ‘hawkish’ or ‘dovish’ pause. The NYSE FANG+ index of mega tech stocks rose 0.9% for a fourth consecutive daily rise, bringing its year-to-date gains to 72%. One major headwind, particularly for Asian assets, could be the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, although that for now at least is being mitigated by the dollar’s slide to a three week low.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Amit Dave, China’s, Jerome Powell’s, ’ Organizations: Reuters, REUTERS, Federal, Nasdaq, Traders, NYSE, Japan’s Nikkei, Treasury Locations: Ahmedabad, India, U.S, South Korea, Asia, Japan, New Zealand

☆ Jerome Powell’s Big Problem Just Got Even More Complicated
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

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Persons: Dow Jones, jerome, powell

☆ AI is booming in the stock market. Is it too late to invest?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Last Thursday, the S&P 500 entered a bull market — up 20% from its recent lows. But the market’s strength has been mostly driven by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA). Before the Bell: AI is causing a big market boom right now, but that boom also seems to be concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks. Everything you wanted to know about a bull market but were afraid to askThe US entered a bull market last Thursday, finally. A bear in bull’s clothes: A 20% lift from recent lows is generally accepted as the definition of the start of a bull market.

Persons: ”, Matt Bartolini, Bell, Pets.com, I’m, They’ve, Adam Turnquist, James Demmert, what’s, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, SPDR, Street Global Advisors, Meta, US, LPL, Big Tech, Main, Research, Investors, Federal Reserve, P Global Market Intelligence, ▸, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New York, Europe, SPDR Americas, Big, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The closely watched core PCE index — where volatile components of food and energy are excluded — unexpectedly ticked up: The Fed’s go-to gauge was up 4.7% for the year. In March, the core PCE gauge grew by 4.6%. Economists had forecast that core PCE would hold steady at 4.6%, according to Refinitiv. Consumer spending jumped 0.8% in April from March, double what economists had expected. Excluding the effects of inflation, real consumer spending increased 0.5%, reflecting a boost seen from new car purchases, according to the report.

☆ Lawmakers are infuriated with Fed's inaction in its insider trading investigation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Congressional lawmakers grilled Federal Reserve Inspector General Mark Bialek Wednesday over possible insider trading among Fed officials in 2020, accusing the nation’s central bank of inaction. The heads of the Boston and Dallas Federal Reserve banks retired early in 2021 after trades they made before and during the pandemic came to light. Bialek told lawmakers there was no conflict of interest and that he was still able to conduct fair, independent investigations. This is not acceptable.”The Office of Inspector General declined to comment Wednesday night. A separate Fed investigation into SVB’s collapse, not involving Bialek, faulted Fed supervisors.

☆ FOMC: Takeaways from the Federal Reserve's May meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

This time around, the central bank’s meeting occurred two days after First Republic Bank failed. “Conditions in the sector have broadly improved since early March, and the US banking system is sound and resilient,” he said. “These tighter credit conditions are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation,” Powell said. “The extent of these effects remains uncertain.”A key federal report on lending conditions, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, will come out on May 8, Powell said. “So we’ll be driven by incoming data, meeting by meeting, and we’ll approach that question at the June meeting.”A complicating element in that evaluation will be the amount of credit tightening and to what extent that acts as another interest rate hike, he said.

☆ Key Fed meeting and jobs data are ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

In the spotlight are the Federal Reserve’s May meeting and the April jobs report. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will likely face questions about credit conditions, in addition to the central bank’s inflation strategy. What’s at stake with the April jobs report: Economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April jobs print to show slower employment growth last month and a rising unemployment rate. Wednesday: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and April ADP private payroll report. Friday: April jobs report and March consumer credit.

☆ What the banking crisis means for your job
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed’s latest economic projections, released on Wednesday, were largely in line with those from its last forecast, in December. “We are in a situation with inflation elevated and now a banking crisis on top of that,” Brusuelas told CNN. “I think that the Fed’s going to move toward an above 5% unemployment rate forecast, either in June or by September,” he said. “But the costs of failing are much higher.”A new wild cardThen there’s also the scenario that the Fed could get an assist from an unlikely bedfellow — the banking crisis. I do think the odds of a recession have increased in the wake of this banking sector crisis,” he said.

☆ Analysis-Investors cautious on U.S. stocks, even though Fed hikes may soon end
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 closing down 1.65% after swinging between gains and losses during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference following the meeting. Futures markets are now pricing a Fed funds rate of around 4.25% by year-end, compared with the range of 4.75% to 5% that took effect on Wednesday. A drop in Treasury yields from recent highs has also given a tailwind to stocks, especially to big tech and growth names that are heavily weighted in the S&P 500. Corporate profits are another potential trouble spot, with S&P 500 earnings expected to post year-over-year declines in the first and second quarters after falling 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES. “I don’t think the market is going off to the races,” said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A.

☆ Analysis: Investors revive inflation trades as 6% Fed rate risk grips Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Spooked by a flurry of hotter-than-expected U.S. economic and inflation data last month, investors are reviving trading strategies that bet on a higher peak in interest rates. The recalibration in inflation expectations has led some investors to bet on a policy rate of 6% or even higher. Trading platform Tradeweb said it saw average daily volume in inflation swaps - derivatives used to hedge inflation risk - increase by 23% month-on-month in February. With higher inflation expectations lifting short-term bond yields higher than those at the longer end, some investors are wary of committing to debt maturities at the long end of the bond market yield curve. "The momentum in the economy is so strong that we may have to get into 2024 before the Fed funds rate peaks."

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Jerome Powell’s speech was hawkish. Investors' mood was bullish
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That's what happened last week after Powell's press conference, when markets focused on his acknowledgement that a "disinflationary process has started." It appears the same thing occurred Tuesday after Powell's speech in Washington D.C.Analysts awaited Powell's speech with anxiety. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Supply-driven inflation will be stickier than expected, says Federated Hermes' DeNichilo
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSupply-driven inflation will be stickier than expected, says Federated Hermes' DeNichiloWilliam Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, and Stephen DeNichilo, Federated Hermes portfolio manager, join ‘Power Lunch’ to react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s question-and-answer session at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C., this afternoon.

☆ ECB delivers fourth straight increase but slows pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

COMMENTS:FLORIAN HENSE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, UNION INVESTMENT, FRANKFURT”This is probably the most hawkish 50 basis points they could come up with. Everything I read in the statement press release sounds hawkish and maybe even “very hawkish” to me. However, core inflation momentum remains firm and the labour market tight.”MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON:“It (the ECB statement) is very hawkish. “The 50 bps hike was expected and the pace of QT (quantitative tightening) was in the ballpark of what folks were expecting. “Even though the ECB is now going at it a bit slower, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re also going to target a lower terminal rate.

☆ Jerome Powell’s Grim Inflation Outlook Is at Odds With Markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Greg Ip | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said he considers headline inflation a poor guide to underlying inflation. Falling prices of energy, automobiles and houses and soft readings on consumer prices have made investors borderline euphoric over the outlook for inflation. The Federal Reserve is having none of it.

☆ Jerome Powell’s Finest Hawk Feathers
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

If Federal Reserve officials are having second thoughts about their anti-inflation fight, you sure couldn’t tell by Jerome Powell on Wednesday. The Fed Chairman donned his finest hawk feathers and said again and again at his press conference that the central bank hasn’t made enough progress getting prices under control and isn’t going to ease up until it does. “We have more work to do.”

☆ Premarket stocks: Investors are hoping for the economic tide to turn. The wait may soon be over
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

What’s happening: Price increases in the United States cooled more than economists expected last month, recording the lowest level of growth since last December. This is the second consecutive month of moderating price pressures and could mean the underlying trend of inflation is finally decelerating. That’s a welcome and hopeful sign for consumers, policymakers and investors, said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. The bill specifically names TikTok and its parent, ByteDance, as social media companies for the purposes of the legislation. In the past two weeks, at least seven states have introduced such measures, including Maryland, South Dakota and Utah.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead U.S. stock rally faces gauntlet of CPI data, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The index has bounced about 10% from its October lows but remains down more than 17% on the year. Equities’ trajectory in the near future may depend on whether Tuesday’s consumer price index report shows inflation is responding to the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle since the 1980s. Hotter-than-expected data could bolster fears of more Fed hawkishness, pressuring stocks. A second helping of benign data could bolster the case for a peak in inflation and buoy equities further. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, investors are factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases.

☆ Jerome Powell’s Not for Turning—Yet
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

The cliché is that a central bank’s job is to take away the punch bowl, though not usually in 30 minutes. Yet that’s what happened Wednesday when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explained in his press conference that he really is staying the anti-inflation course, half an hour after a Fed statement had seemed to hint to the contrary. The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target range for the fed funds rate by 0.75 percentage points, to 3.75%-4%, as Mr. Powell had primed markets to expect. But investors cheered the FOMC statement, which said future decisions will account for “the cumulative tightening” achieved so far as well as “the lags” with which monetary policy operates. Wall Street has been searching for signs the Fed might start moderating the pace of rate increases or stop raising altogether, and it sounded like the FOMC was offering that hope.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNov 3 (Reuters) - Investors trying to navigate this year's relentless interest rate rises have more reasons to play it safe, after a pessimistic message from the U.S. Federal Reserve clouded the outlook for asset prices. Yet Chairman Jerome Powell’s message at Wednesday’s press conference – which followed its fourth straight 75 basis-point rate increase – did little to bolster the case for a less hawkish Fed. Investors are bracing for U.S. employment data on Friday for clues on whether the Fed’s rate hikes have begun to erode the economy’s strength. Signs that inflation is beginning to slow after the Fed’s barrage of rate hikes could bolster the case for a less aggressive monetary policy in coming months. Bartolini is becoming more bullish on mortgage-backed securities, which he expects to benefit from a decline in volatility sparked by smaller rate increases.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Hopeful U.S. stock rally set for date with Federal Reserve reality
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 14, 2022. Meanwhile, cash-heavy investors afraid of missing out on a sustained rally have contributed to the bullish move, market participants said. More than 150 S&P 500 companies are due to report quarterly results next week, including Eli Lilly (LLY.N), ConocoPhillips (COP.N) and Qualcomm (QCOM.O). Investors will also closely watch next Friday's monthly jobs report for signs of whether the Fed's actions have tempered the labor market. "The market is thinking good things," said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.

☆ Jerome Powell’s Inflation Whisperer: Paul Volcker
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Federal Reserve’s annual August retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., was imminent, and markets were rallying on expectations the central bank might slow its pace of interest rate increases. Fed officials thought investors were misreading their intentions given the need to slow the economy to combat high inflation. In a widely anticipated speech, Chairman Jerome Powell decided to be blunt. He scrapped his original address, according to two people who spoke to him, and instead delivered unusually brief remarks with a simple message—the Fed would accept a recession as the price of fighting inflation.

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