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☆ February Inflation Report Consumer Price Rises Likely Held Steady
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

PinnedThe Consumer Price Index inflation report set for release on Tuesday morning could be a big news event for the Federal Reserve and many in markets. Overall inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.1 percent on an annual basis. In particular, economists are likely to keep an eye on housing costs and other services’ prices in the measure. Fed officials have been debating how long they need to leave rates at their current level, about 5.3 percent. And Fed officials want to avoid lowering interest rates too early, only to find out that inflation is not fully quashed.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, we’re, ”, Omair Sharif Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Insurance Costs Are Pushing Up Overall Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It is costing Americans more to protect against disaster, a development that is pushing up official inflation figures. Various kinds of insurance — including car, medical and property protection — are costing more, at least as official inflation figures measure them. “Insurance of various different kinds — housing insurance, but also automobile insurance, and things like that — that’s been a significant source of inflation over the last few years,” Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said during congressional testimony last week. “And it’s to do with a million different factors.”Vehicle insurance is the one adding notably to overall inflation, said Omair Sharif, founder of the research firm Inflation Insights. Part of the increase in car insurance comes from the fact that parts and replacement vehicles have become a lot more expensive over recent years, and that is slowly feeding through to insurance premiums, he said.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Omair Sharif Organizations: “ Insurance, Federal Reserve

☆ The jobs report comes as the Fed considers the timing of interest rate cuts.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Federal Reserve is considering when and how much to cut interest rates, and the employment report on Friday will give policymakers an up-to-date hint at how the economy is evolving ahead of their next policy meeting. Fed officials meet on March 19-20, and they are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at that gathering. “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably to 2 percent,” Mr. Powell told lawmakers on Thursday. If job growth is strong and the labor market is so robust that wages rise quickly, that could keep price increases higher for longer as companies try to cover their costs. On the other hand, if the job market begins to slow sharply, that could nudge Fed officials toward earlier interest rate cuts.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, “, Mr, we’re Organizations: Federal

☆ Fed Chair Powell Still Expects to Cut Rates This Year, but Not Yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said on Wednesday that he thinks the central bank will begin to lower borrowing costs in 2024 but that policymakers still needed to gain “greater confidence” that inflation was conquered before making a move. “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” Mr. Powell said in remarks prepared for testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. “If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”The Fed next meets on March 19-20, but few investors expect officials to lower interest rates at that gathering. Markets see the Fed’s June meeting as a more likely candidate for the first rate cut, and are betting that central bankers could lower borrowing costs three or four times by the end of the year. The Fed chair warned against cutting rates too early — before inflation is sufficiently snuffed out — noting that “reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of progress we have seen in inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy.”

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial Services, Fed

☆ CNBC Daily Open: No rate cuts in 2024?
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks retreatWall Street retreated Monday despite a rally in tech stocks tied to the artificial intelligence boom. China sets GDP targetChina set an economic growth target of "around 5%" for 2024. The fund manager instead has his sights on what he calls "bigger integrated covers," and picked Ferrari as "a phenomenal business."

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Dow, Bitcoin, Freddie Lait, CNBC's, Ferrari Organizations: . Senate Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, CNBC, Nasdaq, National People's, Apple, Federal Reserve, Latitude Investment Management Locations: Washington , U.S, China

☆ January Inflation Report Consumer Price Rises Expected to Cool
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

The Consumer Price Index inflation measure is set for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists expect that prices overall climbed 2.9 percent from a year earlier, the lowest reading in nearly three years. After stripping out food and fuel, which bounce around in price from month to month, a “core” price measure probably climbed 3.7 percent, slower than 3.9 percent in December. But as price increases ease up, people are beginning to report sunnier economic outlooks. More recently, price increases for key services have also begun to moderate.

Persons: Biden, Jerome H, Powell, “, ”, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal Reserve

The NumbersThe S&P 500 climbed 0.6 percent on Friday to close at 5,026.61. Tech giants, including Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet, have enormous sway over the index because of their size, and after they reported earnings last week, several of these stocks have soared. The rally hasn’t been limited to tech stocks: Disney, Ford and Chipotle, for instance, also reported earnings in the past week that beat analyst estimates and pushed their shares higher. Nearly 70 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 had reported earnings as of Friday, with three-quarters of those reports better than expected, according to FactSet. The gains in the S&P 500 have continued even after the Fed signaled that it wouldn’t move as quickly as investors had initially hoped.

Persons: Russell, —, underscoring, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Nasdaq, Technology, Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Disney, Ford, Federal Reserve, Investors

☆ Fed Chair Powell Says Officials Need More ‘Good’ Data Before Cutting Rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-04 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Mr. Powell was interviewed on Thursday, after the Fed’s meeting last week but before Friday’s blockbuster jobs report. “We think we can be careful in approaching this decision just because of the strength that we’re seeing in the economy,” Mr. Powell said during the interview, based on a transcript released ahead of its airing. He added that officials would want to see a continued moderation in price increases, even after several months of milder readings. The progress on inflation “doesn’t need to be better than what we’ve seen, or even as good. It just needs to be good,” Mr. Powell said.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Blockbuster Jobs Report Backs Up Fed’s Patience as It Waits to Cut Rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged this week and signaled that their next move is likely to be a cut — but they also suggested that they are in no hurry to make that change. Friday’s jobs data is likely to reinforce their cautious stance. Given that continued strength, the Fed is unlikely to feel pressure to cut interest rates at its next meeting on March 19-20. Policymakers do not want to hold borrowing costs too high for too long and risk a painful recession, but the data suggests that a possible downturn remains very much at bay. Instead of faltering, the job market is booming.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Employers

☆ The Federal Reserve Meets Wednesday. Here’s What to Watch.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials will conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday, and they are widely expected to keep interest rates steady at a two-decade high when they release their policy decision at 2 p.m. But investors are likely to closely watch the meeting — particularly Chair Jerome H. Powell’s 2:30 p.m. news conference — for hints of when policymakers might begin to lower interest rates. On the one hand, inflation has come down more swiftly than many economists had expected in recent months. On the other, economic growth is proving stronger than anticipated, which could give companies the wherewithal to keep raising prices into the future. Here’s what to know about this meeting.

Persons: Jerome H Organizations: Federal

☆ Interest Rate Cuts Could Be a Boon to Biden
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Jim Tankersley | More About Jim Tankersley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials do not set interest rates with presidential elections in mind. Investors do not widely expect rate cuts to be announced when Fed officials conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday. Interest rate cuts could also help to improve housing affordability, an issue for young voters that has bedeviled the president. Falling interest rates could drive down mortgage rates. White House officials are careful not to comment on Fed rate decisions; Lael Brainard, a former Fed governor who heads Mr. Biden’s National Economic Council, laughed off a reporter’s question on the topic last week.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Biden, Lael Brainard Organizations: Federal, White, Fed, Investors, Economic Council Locations: Biden’s

☆ The Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady and Is Not Likely to Cut Them Soon
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials held interest rates at their highest level in more than two decades at their first meeting of 2024 and hinted that their next move will be to lower borrowing costs — even as policymakers made clear they are not yet ready to make that cut. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed’s chair, said that the country had “six good months” of moderating inflation, but officials wanted to see continued progress before lowering rates. “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle, and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” Mr. Powell said. He added that when it comes to gaining enough confidence to move borrowing costs lower, “we want to see more good data.”Mr. Powell said that he did not think it was “likely” that Fed officials would have enough evidence to cut interest rates by their next meeting on March 19-20. That could leave investors looking toward later meetings — such as gatherings in May and June — as they consider when the first rate cut might come.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” Mr, Mr, — Organizations: Federal

☆ Climate Protesters Get in Fed’s Face as Policy Clash Grows Louder
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

A protest that disrupted a speech by Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, at the Economic Club of New York this fall generated extensive coverage. All three upheavals were caused by the same group, Climate Defiance, which a now-30-year-old activist named Michael Greenberg founded in the spring. Mr. Greenberg had long worked in traditional climate advocacy, but he decided that something louder was needed to spur change at institutions like the Fed. “I realized there was a big need for disruptive direct action,” he explained in an interview. “It just gets so, so, so, so, so much more attention.”

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Michael Greenberg, Greenberg, “, ” Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, International Monetary Fund Locations: Jackson, Lodge, Wyoming, of New York

☆ Fed Chair Powell Says It’s Too Early to Guess When Rates Will Fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, suggested on Friday that the central bank may be done raising interest rates if inflation and the economy continue to cool as expected, saying that central bankers could raise interest rates further if that became necessary. The Fed has already raised interest rates to a range between 5.25 and 5.5 percent, up sharply from near-zero as recently as March 2022. Those higher borrowing costs are weighing on demand for mortgages, car loans and business debt, cooling the economy in a bid to lower inflation. Given how high interest rates are now, the Federal Open Market Committee has paused its rate increases for several months. Investors have increasingly come to expect that its next move would be to cut rates — though Fed officials have been hesitant to declare victory, or to confidently predict exactly when lower borrowing costs could arrive.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Powell’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Spelman College, Fed, Federal, Investors

☆ Stocks Hit New High for the Year, Reversing the Summer’s Swoon
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

After several twists and turns this year, stock investors are in a celebratory mood. The reversal has come as investors have cheered signs that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates, the primary tool in the central bank’s effort to slow inflation. Those high rates have been a drag on corporate valuations because they raise costs for consumers and companies and give allure to investments outside the stock market. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, appeared to add to investors’ bullish mood on Friday, suggesting that the economy continues to cool as expected. “We’re getting what we wanted to get, we now have the ability to move carefully,” Mr. Powell said at an event.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ’, “ We’re, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ 41-year-old's side hustle brings in $125,500 a year, and costs $0 to start: 'The riches are found in niches'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Megan Sauer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

She posts her worksheet booklets — designed to help teach literacy to young students — to her online store on Teachers Pay Teachers, an Etsy-style marketplace. Jerome and Becky Powell run their Teachers Pay Teachers stores separately — but the money all goes to the same place, they say. You don't have to spend any money to get started, Powell notes: Teachers Pay Teachers has both free and paid tiers for sellers. Powell pays that subscription fee, as does her husband Jerome — a full-time computer engineer who manages another Teachers Pay Teachers store, called Editable Activities. I have helped eight friends and coworkers open their own stores on Teachers Pay Teachers.

Persons: —, Becky Powell, they've, Jerome, Powell, Jerome —, You've, I've, It's, it's, Warren Buffett Organizations: CNBC, Pay Teachers, Teachers, Pay Locations: Beaverton , Oregon, AskMakeIt@cnbc.com

☆ Fed Officials Thought Rates Could Rise More if Inflation Stayed Stubborn
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street is keenly focused on what officials will do next. Fed policymakers had predicted one more 2023 rate move as of their September economic projections, but investors think that there is little chance they will raise rates at their final meeting of the year on Dec. 12-13. Those, together with remarks from Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, could provide important clues about the future. As of now, market pricing suggests that Wall Street expects policymakers to begin lowering interest rates at some point in the first half of 2024. Several central bankers have been clear in recent weeks that they aren’t sure they are done raising interest rates.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” Susan Collins Organizations: ”, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, CNBC

☆ Risks to global economy are on the rise and growth slowdown is a reality, Swiss Re economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRisks to global economy are on the rise and growth slowdown is a reality, Swiss Re economist saysJerome Haegeli, group chief economist at Swiss Re, discusses the outlook for the global economy.

Persons: Jerome Haegeli Organizations: Swiss, Swiss Re Locations: Swiss

☆ Fed Chair Recalls Inflation ‘Head Fakes,’ Pledges to Do More if Needed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, on Thursday expressed little urgency to make another interest rate increase. But he made clear that policymakers remain willing to adjust policy further if doing so proves necessary to cool the economy and fully restrain inflation. Mr. Powell and his Fed colleagues left their interest rates unchanged in a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent earlier this month, up from near-zero as recently as March 2022. The Fed has raised borrowing costs over the past year and a half to wrangle rapid inflation by slowing demand across the economy. He said Fed officials are still “not confident that we have achieved such a stance.”

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” Organizations: Federal, International Monetary Fund

The report is also expected to find that gains in average hourly earnings were solid but decelerated to 4 percent from a year earlier. The September report showed an unexpectedly strong gain of 336,000 jobs — a figure that will be revised Friday — and a year-over-year wage gain of 4.2 percent. has reached tentative contract agreements with the three major U.S. automakers and told striking members to return to their jobs. “We expect the October employment report to show a large deceleration in job growth, although the moderation will be overstated by the impact of striking autoworkers,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note. “Excluding those workers,” she added, “job growth will still be relatively robust, although narrowly based.”Since early 2022, the benchmark interest rate set by the Federal Reserve has surged from near zero to more than 5 percent.

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome H, Powell, Mr, “, ” Organizations: Bloomberg, United Automobile Workers, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome H, Powell, Mr, “, ” Organizations: Bloomberg, United Automobile Workers, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve

☆ Are Higher Rates Slowing the Economy? A Zoo Offers Clues.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But they are also looking for further evidence that their moves are working to restrain the economy. “The same is true of growth.”But he said that economic growth, which is mainly powered by consumer spending, would most likely need to slow for inflation to fully return to a normal pace. It is now running at about 3.4 percent, still well above the Fed’s 2 percent goal. “What we do with demand is still going to be important,” he said. Surveying the economy reveals that the effects of the Fed’s rate moves are clear in some places, are mixed in others and have yet to make much of a dent elsewhere.

Persons: we’ve, Jerome H, Powell, “, ” Organizations: Fed

☆ Risk of a Wider Middle East War Threatens a ‘Fragile’ World Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Patricia Cohen | More About Patricia Cohen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

“We are in one of the most fragile junctures for the world economy.”Mr. Gill’s assessment echoes those of other analysts. Tensions between the United States and China over technology transfers and security only complicate efforts to work together on other problems like climate change, debt relief or violent regional conflicts. If the conflict stays contained, though, the ripple effects on the world economy are likely to remain limited, most analysts agree. At the moment, the United States is the world’s largest oil producer, and alternative and renewable energy sources make up a bit more of the world’s energy mix. “It’s a highly volatile, uncertain, scary situation,” said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

Persons: ” Mr, Gill, Mr, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Jerome H, Powell, ”, Jason Bordoff, Bordoff Organizations: JPMorgan, Hamas, Federal Reserve, Center, Global Energy, Columbia University Locations: Gaza, United States, China, Israel, Egypt, Syria, U.S, Europe, Iran, Persian

☆ What to Watch for as the Federal Reserve Meets This Week
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates steady at the conclusion of their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Both will offer policymakers a chance to signal what they think might come next for interest rates and the economy. Central bankers have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent in a push to tame inflation. That rate setting is up from near-zero as recently as early 2022, and is the highest level in 22 years. And once they decide that rates are high enough, how long will they leave them elevated?

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal

☆ Strong Economic Data ‘Could Warrant’ Higher Rates, Fed Chair Says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

But he also said that the central bank might need to raise interest rates more if economic data continued to come in hot. Mr. Powell tried to paint a balanced picture of the challenge facing the Fed in a speech before the Economic Club of New York. Officials have rapidly raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent over the past 19 months. “We are attentive to recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor,” Mr. Powell acknowledged in his prepared remarks on Thursday. Those tougher financial conditions could affect growth, Mr. Powell said Thursday.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, ”, “ Organizations: Federal Reserve, Economic, of New, Fed Locations: of New York, Israel, Gaza

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