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☆ Morning Bid: Still seeking decisive stimulus in China
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Sonali DesaiDisappointment has been the prevailing sentiment so far this week as investors grow impatient with the wait for more decisive Chinese stimulus measures. China delivered the expected 10 basis-point reduction to its lending benchmarks, but disappointed those looking for a bigger cut to the mortgage-linked five-year loan prime rate. Chinese property stocks took a hit and the yuan came under further pressure, reversing much of its bounce against the U.S. dollar late last week when stimulus expectations were driving price action. Still, that helped Australian shares build on recent gains to reach a seven-week high, bucking declines across Asian bourses where rising Treasury yields and souring anticipation of Chinese stimulus efforts spurred broad declines. The wary investor mood is likely to spill into Europe, where the data calendar is confined to German producer prices for May.

Persons: Sonali Desai, Antony Blinken's, Luis de, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Olli Rehn, Elizabeth McCaul, Luis de Guindos, St Louis, James Bullard, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Sonali, U.S ., Reuters, Bank of Australia's, European Central Bank, Bank of Spain, Bank of Finland, St, Barcelona School of, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, Europe, Luis de Guindos, Hungary

☆ Morning Bid: US housing rebound, China prime cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The main macroeconomic news overnight was a rather underwhelming Chinese rate cut that seemed to disappoint the local stock and currency markets, both of which fell. The People's Bank of China cut two benchmark lending rates - its one-year and five-year loan prime rates - by 10 basis points each. With Goldman Sachs on Monday the latest to cut China growth forecasts for this year and next, nerves about the economy's trajectory are rising again. The big U.S. data input this week is from the housing sector, where signs of some recovery are reinforcing 'soft landing' hopes for the wider economy. On Monday, the NAHB's house market sentiment index rose in June to its highest in almost a year and far above forecasts.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Antony Blinken, Joe Biden, what's, BOE, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, John Williams, St Louis, James Bullard, Narendra Modi, Susan Fenton Organizations: Nasdaq, People's Bank of China, Washington, China's, of, Global, Bank of, Federal Reserve, FedEx, Philadelphia Fed, Federal, New York Fed, St, St Louis Fed, Indian, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Xi, Europe, Britain, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Bank, Bank of England, United

☆ Just days after pausing rate hikes, Fed official calls for more increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —The dust has barely settled on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its aggressive rate-hiking campaign — but in public appearances Friday, central bank officials have a clear message: Keep hiking. In one of the first speeches, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that additional rate increases are necessary to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed’s decision to restart hikes depends on what data show in the coming weeks and months. It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that,” Waller said. A representative of the event said the conference wasn’t being recorded and that only registrants who paid a fee were able to attend.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, ” Powell, Waller, “, Michael Gapen, Gapen, they’re, Louis President James Bullard, Thomas Barkin Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Norges Bank, International Monetary Fund, Ernst &, Bank, BofA Global Research, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Maryland Government Finance, Association Locations: Washington, Oslo, Norway, ”

☆ The market isn't buying the Fed's tough talk on interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Try as the Federal Reserve did Wednesday to send the message that multiple interest rate hikes are ahead, the market wasn't buying it. Indeed, market pricing reflected a high level of skepticism that the Fed is going to do much more in terms of policy tightening. That came even though 12 of the 18 FOMC members said they envision rate hikes totaling 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, by the end of 2023. "Fed Funds Futures aren't buying to [Wednesday's] FOMC SEP guidance of 2 more rate hikes this year," wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Powell's news conference after the decision to skip a rate hike at this week's meeting went in multiple directions.

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Jerome, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, that's, Matthew Luzzetti, Christopher Waller, James Bullard Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, Dow Jones Industrial, DataTrek, Empire, Manufacturing Survey, Deutsche Bank, Louis Locations: St

☆ US dollar falls, but off four-week lows, as Fed signals more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index was last down 0.3% at 103.01 after hitting a four-week low of 102.66 in the session. While signaling more rate increases, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press briefing that the U.S. central bank was not so far away from its target on the benchmark fed funds rate. Officials now expect the fed funds rate to top out at 5.6% this year, implying two more 25 bps increases in 2023, up from the 5.1% estimate in the last set of forecasts released in March. He noted that in 2006, the fed funds rate stood at 5.25% from July 2006 to August 2007 before being cut in the wake of the global financial crisis. Elsewhere, sterling rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.2660, after hitting its highest since April 2022 of $1.2699.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Low, Louis, James Bullard's, James Bullard, Srijan, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Amanda Cooper, Jonathan Oatis, Lisa Shumaker, Richard Chang Organizations: NEW YORK, U.S, Federal Reserve, Market, Officials, FHN, Louis Fed, Traders, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, London

The Bank of England in February removed its explicit guidance and tied decisions to inflation data. The Bank of Japan, by contrast, still battling to raise perennially weak inflation, has left the core part of its guidance intact with a pledge to "patiently" sustain loose policies. The European Central Bank says it has adopted a "meeting-by-meeting" approach with "a strong preference against returning to outright forward guidance on policy rates." If the projections show the policy rate moving up later this year, officials will likely face questions if they do as expected and hold rates steady at the June meeting. If the rate is not seen moving up, they will face questions about not being responsive to recent data showing strong inflation despite pledging to be "data dependent."

Persons: Jerome Powell, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Powell, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Gregory Daco, Louis, James Bullard, Data's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Louis Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Central

☆ The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.

Persons: That’s, Joe Biden’s, ”, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, “, ” Harker, It’s, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, you’ve, you’d, Dave Gilbertson, hasn’t, Ben Bernanke, ” Jack Macdowell, Louis President James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed’s, Louis, Jerome Powell, there’s, Ian Shepherdson, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association for Business Economics, CNN, Employers, of Labor Statistics, BLS, UKG, The Palisades Group, Hawkish Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, Pantheon Locations: Washington, Washington ,

☆ US stocks jump as markets brace for May jobs report and debt ceiling bill nears finish line
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose Thursday as markets await important labor data and eye debt ceiling progress. The Labor Department will release the May employment report on Friday morning. It's one of the last big pieces of economic data before the Fed's June 13-14 policy meeting. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. ET close on Thursday:Elsewhere, bitcoin finished May with its first monthly loss of 2023 as traders navigate a murky macro environment.

Persons: —, Louis, James Bullard, Patrick Harker, bitcoin, Brigham Santos Organizations: Labor Department, Service, Federal, Louis Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Lama Locations: St

☆ Major central banks were expected to pause rate hikes soon. Now it's not so clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe market has long been pricing in interest rate cuts from major central banks toward the end of 2023, but sticky core inflation, tight labor markets and a surprisingly resilient global economy are leading some economists to reassess. Economic resilience and persistent labor market tightness could exert upward pressure on wages and inflation, which is in danger of becoming entrenched. The Bank of England The U.K. faces a much tougher inflation challenge than the U.S. and the euro zone, and the U.K. consumer price inflation rate fell by less than expected in April. Meanwhile core inflation jumped to 6.8% from 6.2% in March, which will be of greater concern to the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Risk management considerations will, we think, force the MPC to push rates higher and further than previously intended."

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Debt ceiling deal may shift investor focus to further Fed action
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Megacap technology and growth stocks, which benefit from lower interest rates, have led the market's advance. A Congressional package raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, is expected to cap spending on government programs. The debt ceiling impasse had weighed on stocks in recent days, but for the most part investors had been expecting Washington to reach a deal. At the same time, the equity market has only just begun to start pricing in more Fed hikes, she added. "The ongoing effects of monetary policy now are setting us up for this wall of debt that people aren't talking about with enough vigor," he said.

☆ A U.S. recession would be 'good news' for markets, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. consumer price inflation eased to 4.9% year on year in April, its lowest annual pace since April 2021. Markets took the new data from the Labor Department earlier this month as a sign that the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation are finally bearing fruit. They eventually opted for another 25 basis point increase at the time, taking the target fed funds rate to between 5% and 5.25%. By November 2024, the market is pricing a 24.5% probability — the top of the bell curve distribution — that the target rate is cut to the 2.75%-3% range. "To me, it all really is going to come down to 'is the economy gonna touch near a recession?'

☆ Dollar higher as U.S. debt ceiling concerns keep traders nervous
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar hit a two-month high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as a lack of progress in talks over increasing the U.S. debt limit hurt investors' appetite for risk-taking. "I think the dollar saw a modest boost today as stocks have declined, mostly due to the lack of progress on the debt ceiling deal," said John Doyle, vice president of trading and dealing at Monex USA. While most market participants expect a deal eventually, the delay in getting it done was keeping traders nervous, Doyle said. "The focus is slowly going back towards inflation and all this hawkish Fed speak we've been getting," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. "We're probably looking at a market that is repositioning itself for a little bit more dollar strength here as these Fed rate cut bets get pushed back a little bit further and higher for longer."

Persons: Joe Biden, John Doyle, Doyle, James Bullard, Neel Kashkari, we've, Edward Moya, Jerome Powell, Powell, Moya Organizations: U.S, Republicans, Monex USA, Fed, Traders Locations: New York

☆ Morning Bid: Not so fast, debt ceiling bulls!
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin BucklandYou didn't think it would be that easy, did you? Investors are on edge after equities and the dollar got knocked back Friday, when Republican negotiators unexpectedly walked out of debt ceiling talks. Discussions now seem to be back on track, with President Joe Biden due to meet House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy later today. Another potential boost comes from the PBOC's assessment that the fundamentals of China's economic stability and long-term improvement have not changed. Luis de Guindos and Philip Lane are among Lagarde's ECB colleagues on speaking duty today.

SummarySummary Companies U.S. debt limit talks to kick off at 5:30 p.m. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet for talks on Monday after their discussions almost fell apart on Friday. The fresh talks come less than two weeks before a deadline after which the Treasury warned that the federal government will struggle to pay its debts. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAdvancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.71-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.78-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 13 new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 35 new lows.

☆ Morning Bid: Tech politics, debt cap brinkmanship
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Well-choreographed brinkmanship over the debt ceiling standoff looks set to go down to the wire, while technology firms have once again become a battleground in tense geopolitics. As AI-fueled U.S. technology stocks have led the way this year, the S&P (.SPX) has gained almost 10% this year and hit its highest level in nine months on Friday. Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari said on Sunday he could support holding rates steady at the next meeting. Futures markets see more than an 80% chance of a June pause and still price almost 50bp of cuts by yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

With the end of another earnings season in sight, Wall Street's attention has turned to Washington and the debt ceiling deadline. Republican negotiators on Friday walked out of talks on raising the debt limit , abruptly ending a positive week of discussions that appeared to be leading toward a deal. Democrats and the White House have been pushing for a "clean" hike to the debt limit that would push the next deadline past the 2024 presidential election, while Republicans are pressing for spending cuts. Many investors believe this ongoing game of chicken over the debt limit is largely for show, since the U.S. has never defaulted on its debt obligations. U.S. President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other congressional leaders in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 9, 2023.

☆ Asian stocks inch up on US debt ceiling hopes, Nikkei hits 33-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.66%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) continued its ascent, rising to its highest since August 1990, during the country's so-called bubble era. Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.44%, German DAX futures up 0.41% and FTSE futures up 0.23%. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) rose 0.20%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) was up 0.13%, having reversed from earlier losses. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.029% and was wedged near a two-month high.

☆ Asian shares mixed as China growth worries crimp U.S. debt ceiling optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.20% but was set to eke out a gain of 0.19% for the week. Data in the week underscored that China's economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter, stoking worries over the wobbly post-COVID-19 recovery. Investor attention has been firmly on the negotiations over U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that a deal could be reached sent U.S. shares higher overnight . Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. U.S. crude fell 0.14% to $71.76 per barrel and Brent was at $75.78, down 0.11% on the day.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Exhale and breathe
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk by the bronze sculpture 'Fearless Girl' outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 21, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, thinks economic data don't support a pause in rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Federal Reserve officials are growing skeptical over suspending rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some officials are concerned inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, which could prompt an 11th consecutive rate hike when policymakers meet in June. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell and former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke (R) participate in a discussion at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty ImagesEarlier this month, Fed officials voted unanimously to raise the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to a range of 5-5.25%, while signaling a possible pause ahead. Of course, Fed officials’ thinking on monetary policy could drastically change if the United States defaults on its debt, which could happen as soon as June 1. Fed officials always mention that their views on interest rates largely depend on what economic indicators show, resisting taking an absolute stance on how they will vote.

☆ Morning Bid: Hopeful ahead of the weekend
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Yoruk Bahceli. Markets are heading into the weekend basking in optimism that a debt ceiling deal to avert a catastrophic U.S. Treasury default will be struck soon. His team have reported progress in talks and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said a deal is "doable" by Sunday. The S&P 500 is up 1.8% this week, set for its best week since end-March when markets were in panic mode around a banking crisis dragging down the economy. Fed speakers also sounded the alarm; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday U.S. inflation doesn't look like it's cooling fast enough to merit a rate hike pause.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Time to exhale and breathe
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader walks out of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street in New York City on May 12, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, thinks economic data don't support a pause in rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $71.86. A stronger dollar can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. High interest rates boost borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and reduce oil demand. The strength of April U.S. economic data in addition to optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday. Another factor that could reduce oil demand was a fire in Mexico at the Salina Cruz refinery owned by Mexican state oil company Pemex.

☆ Fed's hawks make a pitch against a rate-hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On Thursday, rate-futures markets reflected a one-in-three chance of a June rate hike, compared with a one-in-10-chance seen a week ago. The Fed has lifted borrowing costs at each meeting since March 2022, bringing them from near zero to a 5.00-5.25% range as of early this month. Consumer price inflation, for instance, edged down to a 4.9% annual pace in April but is still far above the Fed's 2% goal. However, his embrace of the idea that there is still a lot of policy tightening in the pipeline suggests he could be comfortable with a pause. Dallas Fed's Logan had the opposite presumption.

☆ Tech leads US stocks higher as traders ride AI hype and cheer debt ceiling progress
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Tech led the stock market higher on Thursday as investors chase the growing hype around artificial intelligence. Investors are also looking toward progress on the debt ceiling negotiations and the potential for another Fed rate hike in June. Investors were also closely monitoring progress on debt ceiling negotiations, with the June 1 "X-date" now less than two weeks away. While President Biden traveled to Japan for the G7 summit, he said he would cut his trip early and return to Washington, D.C. to continue the debt ceiling negotiations. Fed President James Bullard also said on Thursday that another rate hike in June is possible.

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