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The 60/40 portfolio doesn't work anymore, according to Bank of America. If the 60/40 portfolio was on life support last year, this year its demise is now "confirmed," Woodard wrote. Bonds require 40% of the assets in a 60/40 portfolio but have delivered only 25% of the returns since 1920, he noted. Weak bond returns will lead to "another lost decade" for the 60/40 portfolio, in Woodard's words. For income, Bank of America's researchers unveiled a strategy called "dynamic prudent yield" that promises to beat bond indexes while carrying less risk.
Persons: Bonds, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Woodward, Schwab Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, RSP, Vanguard, Energy, P Metals, Mining, Uranium, Research, Government Bond ETF, First Trust, Income, Muni Bond ETF, Muni, Blackstone Senior Loan, of America, Bond, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF, US, iShares, Securities ETF, VanEck Preferred Securities, Financials, Bloomberg, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury
Preferred stocks are a type of security that is above common stock in a company's capital structure and often pay higher dividend yields. Preferred ETFs offer the most attractive yield relative to bond ETFs in our coverage," the note said. Bank of America gave buy-equivalent ratings to three funds in this category: the iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF (PFF) , the Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD) and the VanEck Preferred ex-Financials ETF (PFXF) . "During the 2008/9 great financial crisis (GFC), high exposure to financials weighed heavily on preferred stock returns, as it has done today.
Persons: Jared Woodard, PFFD, VanEck's PFXF, Van Eck, financials, preferreds, Woodard, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Securities ETF, Global, U.S . Preferred, Financials
Menon has discretion over several institutional clients' portfolios including endowments, foundations, pensions, and healthcare institutions. Regardless of expectations, Menon emphasizes that it's hard to build a portfolio around any particular macroeconomic outcome. This means creating a portfolio that prioritizes offensive assets through equities while adding defensive securities, she noted. When it comes to defensive positions, the two most important things a portfolio needs protection against are inflation and deflation. "Private equity would fall more in the space of offense in terms of generating long-term growth in a portfolio," Menon said.
Debate over the US debt ceiling puts the potential of a US Treasury default in focus. Failing to do so could lead to a US Treasury default if the government becomes unable to make payments on all of its outstanding debts. "This type of default — one that occurs due to not being able to raise the debt ceiling — would be unprecedented," Steeno says. 6 ways a US Treasury default could hurt your financesHere are some of the biggest financial impacts Americans would feel in the event of a US Treasury default:1. But a Treasury default could undo any progress they've been made.
The Federal Reserve, which is responsible for supervising banks in the United States, plans to release its report at 11 a.m. Another federal regulator, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, will release a similar report on Signature Bank, which fell two days after SVB, in the afternoon. Those assets began steadily losing value when the central bank raised interest rates at a rapid pace last year. As the bank stumbled, it became clear that virtually all — 97%, according to data from Wedbush Securities — of SVB’s deposits were uninsured. There are indications the Fed, SVB’s primary regulator, warned the bank as early as 2019 about its insufficient risk-management systems, according to reporting from the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times.
There's an old Wall Street adage that urges investors to "sell in May and go away" — but CFRA Research says there's an even smarter way to play the market this spring. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac , the worst six months of the year for the S & P 500 starts in May and runs through October. The strategist says traders can look toward defensive names during the May slump, instead of entirely exiting the market. Indeed, since 1990, while the entire S & P 500 gained 6.7% annually, average price gains from equal exposure to these four sectors returned 9.0%. The stock almanac's editor, Jeff Hirsch, said that reducing long exposure and adopting a defensive stance will pay off for investors during the low period.
Wall Street aces its real-life stress test
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
One flaw in this plan is that the Federal Reserve, which designs the stress test, has tended to assume that when bad times come, interest rates would fall, not rise. Because their clients also fear sudden shifts in interest rates, they call on fixed-income securities desks to help offlay the risk. One clear outcome of higher interest rates is that banks are lending less, and more carefully. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsFollow @johnsfoley on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSLarge U.S. banks reported their first-quarter earnings between April 14 and April 19. Both said that trading revenue had declined from first quarter 2022, but it was substantially higher than the last three months of the year.
Goldman has its fingers in the wrong pies
  + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Rising interest rates have been a gift to big U.S. banks – except Goldman Sachs (GS.N). Boss David Solomon is reshaping the firm, but for now Goldman has to earn its money the hard way. Goldman, with interest just 15% of its revenue compared with roughly half at its banking peers, missed out. Solomon wants to remold Goldman as a bank for all seasons, but he isn’t there yet. Goldman’s fixed-income trading revenue fell 17% year-on-year, with “significantly lower” revenue in currencies and commodities.
Within Europe, Goldman prefers companies in value sectors that pay dividends , as well as select defensive and growth stocks in the market. Emerging markets Several Wall Street analysts are putting their money on emerging markets, with most bullish on China, the world's second-largest economy. While the bank expects just 1% earnings growth for emerging market stocks, it said the sector's valuation looks attractive at a 23% discount to global peers. Philip Blancato, CEO at Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, is also bullish on emerging markets. He added that the case for adding to emerging market allocations is growing, particularly given the "near guarantee" of a softer dollar in the short- to medium-term.
read more"The U.S. contagion is unlikely to spill over to Canadian banks as the issues in U.S. are unique and specific to certain business models or lending activities," said James Shanahan, banking analyst with Edward Jones to Reuters. REGIONAL BANK SCRUTINYCanadian banks emerged stronger from the 2008 global financial crisis due to prudent regulations and since built a reputation for financial stability. The Canadian banks have kept their focus on domestic lending and majority of their earnings come from serving local clients. But in recent years, Royal Bank, BMO, TD Bank and CIBC (CM.TO) have expanded into the United States by buying regional lenders to benefit from strong growth in second-tier U.S. cities. However, last week the regional bank's stock was hit after the SVB collapse.
"The U.S. contagion is unlikely to spill over to Canadian banks as the issues in U.S. are unique and specific to certain business models or lending activities," said James Shanahan, banking analyst with Edward Jones to Reuters. REGIONAL BANK SCRUTINYCanadian banks emerged stronger from the 2008 global financial crisis due to prudent regulations and since built a reputation for financial stability. The Canadian banks have kept their focus on domestic lending and majority of their earnings come from serving local clients. But in recent years, Royal Bank, BMO, TD Bank and CIBC (CM.TO) have expanded into the United States by buying regional lenders to benefit from strong growth in second-tier U.S. cities. However, last week the regional bank's stock was hit after the SVB collapse.
March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators are considering retaining ownership of securities owned by Signature Bank (SBNY.O) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) to allow smaller banks to participate in auction for the collapsed lenders, a source familiar with the matter said on Friday. Many of the fixed income securities that SVB and Signature Bank invested in, such as Treasuries, have been worth less since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment. Reuters on Wednesday reported that regulators at the FDIC have asked interested banks in acquiring SVB and Signature Bank to submit bids by March 17. SVB Financial Group (SIVB.O), the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank, earlier on Friday filed for a court-supervised reorganization under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
As panic shoots across the banking sector, US banks' credit ratings have come under the spotlight, and investors are zooming in on how these institutions are graded. Moody's, S&P Global, and Fitch are three big credit ratings agencies that control about 95% of the credit ratings in the financial markets. In fact, during the global financial crisis, credit ratings agencies had been blasted for giving better ratings to risky mortgage-backed securities and collateralized loans. Fears of the crisis spreading have also hit the credit ratings of First Republic Bank. First Republic Bank is now considering various options —including a sale – Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
Moody's downgraded its outlook on the entire US banking system on Tuesday. The revised rating reflects the environment that sparked bank runs at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank. "Our base case is for the Fed's monetary tightening to continue, which could deepen some banks' challenges." "Our base case is for the Fed's monetary tightening to continue, which could deepen some banks' challenges. Moody's median rating on US banks is now a3, or three notches higher than the global median of baa3.
Ray Dalio said the Silicon Valley Bank failure is a "canary in the coal mine" for what's to come. Dalio wrote Tuesday that this is part of the classic "bubble-bursting part" of the short-term debt cycle. Regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, with Signature Bank closed down two days later. Given that the Fed has hiked interest rates more than 1,700% over the last year—and could continue to do s0—more dominoes are poised to fall, in Dalio's view. "Pandemic-related fiscal stimulus along with more than a decade of ultralow interest rates and quantitative easing resulted in significant excess deposit creation in the US banking sector," Moody's strategists said.
Still, no matter what the Consumer Price Index clocks in at, it's possible that the failures of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank already convinced Jerome Powell to take his foot off the gas. Silicon Valley Bank employees react to the bank's collapse Getty Images1. With the government rescuing Signature and Silicon Valley Bank depositors, not all the downside has been contained, according to Wharton finance professor, Itamar Drechsler. Silicon Valley Bank's CEO, Greg Becker, previously asked Congress to ease regulatory oversight on the bank. But, as Jefferies analysts put it, "the world changed" with Silicon Valley Bank's failure.
One key term is "duration risk" along the yield curve in the bond market. Duration risk in bonds Those Treasury purchases in and of themselves were not the issue at SVB. The problem occurred when depositors came calling for their money and the bank didn't have the cash on hand. This mismatch, which always exists to some extent, is where "duration risk" comes into play. The risk is that the duration of the investments made by the bank doesn't match up with its potential liquidity needs.
Crypto-focused Silvergate , which announced its plans to liquidate this week, is suffering from woes similar to that of failed Silicon Valley Bank . That is, Silvergate's distress is linked to rising interest rates – rather than the whims of digital assets. There is also an impact from the rising interest rate environment banks now find themselves in. "As the bank of choice for crypto, Silvergate Bank's failure is disappointing, but predictable," she tweeted Wednesday afternoon . Now, customers must be made whole [and] regulators should step up against crypto risk."
NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Nearly three years with no U.S. bank failures just came to an unseemly end. The bank owned by SVB Financial (SIVB.O) relied more heavily on large, and therefore, uninsured, deposits than other banks. A buyer – say, a bank that covets SVB’s relationship with upwardly mobile entrepreneurs – might swoop in and buy the whole thing. Other depositors would receive certificates of receivership, which entitle them to dividends payable from the proceeds of selling the bank’s assets. SVB had around $165 billion in deposits as of Feb. 28, it said in a presentation on March 8.
The bank failed to complete its $2.3 billion capital raise and is now seeking a sale, according to CNBC. The news comes amid fears of , with several VCs advising their portfolio companies to pull money from the bank. SVB Financial saw a surge in deposits in 2020 and 2021 as valuations for speculative tech and start-up companies soared. The crash in SVB Financial on Thursday dragged down the entire banking sector, and now fears of contagion risk are starting to grow. Shares of SVB Financial were off 95% from its November 2021 record-high of $763.22, with shares trading at about $35 in pre-market trading on Friday.
How ETFs are expediting bond market modernization
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Despite equities having long transitioned to electronic trading, over-the-counter trading remains common in the bond market. Bond ETFs are changing that. "Bond ETFs are 20 years old today, and they trade the same way as some of the technologies in fixed income." Roughly a decade after equity ETFs were first introduced, the first four bond funds launched in July 2002 — the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (SHY) , the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) , the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) and the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) . "And it just sounds really familiar to the way ETFs had grown with the equity markets."
For yield-hungry investors, preferred stocks offer a way to boost portfolio income. Preferred stocks are a hybrid asset. They have yields, which move inversely to the value of the preferred stock – the same way bonds do. "However, with bond yields rising, the place for preferred stock in a portfolio should be used sparingly." For those who want to stretch for yield and take on a little more risk, preferred stocks are another attractive possibility.
The SEC is investigating if the Mormon Church's investment arm complied with rules, per The Journal. Ensign Peak Advisors managed assets worth $100 billion in 2019, a whistleblower complaint revealed. He alleged that Ensign Peak shouldn't have tax-exempt status because it did not engage in any charitable activities. Ensign Peak Advisors, the Mormon Church, the SEC and the Senate Finance Committee didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from Insider, made outside normal working hours. SEC rules require managers such as Ensign Peak to disclose holdings in US-listed companies, which The Journal reported were worth about $40 billion.
Bloomberg failed to disclose to customers of its BVAL service that its daily price valuations for fixed-income securities could be based on a single data input from at least 2016 to October 2022, the SEC said in a statement. Bloomberg did not admit or deny the SEC's charges and a spokesperson for the company declined to comment. While it found no evidence Bloomberg listed any erroneous prices, the agency said there were instances when its valuations were not derived in accordance with its stated methodologies. For a "very small fraction of total reported valuations", Bloomberg determined prices of certain fixed income securities based on "uncorroborated single broker quotes", the SEC's order said. The SEC "will hold service providers, such as Bloomberg, accountable for misrepresentations that impact investors," said Osman Nawaz, chief of the SEC enforcement division's complex financial products unit.
The Securities and Exchange Commission fined Bloomberg Finance LP $5 million to settle civil charges accusing the company of misleading customers on how it calculated the prices of certain securities, the agency said Monday. The action could have affected the price at which securities are offered or traded on the platform, the SEC said. Former New York mayor and one-time presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg owns parent company Bloomberg LP, a data and media company. The SEC said Bloomberg's customers, including mutual fund companies, used its prices to calculate valuations of their own holdings. The disclosure issue affected the prices of some government bonds, agency securities, corporate bonds, municipal bonds as well as securitized products, the SEC said.
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